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4361  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2023, 09:17:12 PM


A mirror image, so that's UP, right?
Nevermind...red candles, but then it is an impossibru pic.

EDIT: btw, the fact that i would need to order prescription inserts makes me less enthusiastic about the whole 'thing'.
What if i have multiple people with glasses in my household? Keep changing the inserts? Ridiculous.

I have had cataract surgery.

about 15 years ago in my right eye and 11 years ago in my left eye.

I have fixed implants one in the left lets that eye see 20-20 one in the right lets that eye see 20-80.

This allows me to see mid range and far range perfectly. So those apple glasses would need me to have 2 different inserts one for each eye. I wonder what fixed prescription I would attempt my eye to see with them.

Maybe just alter one eye from 20-20 to 20-80

Well man i think it was make it to be a more personal think, not a one who its gonna be shared between a few.

So sad to heard you have cataract so early. I thinked it was a elderly people problem.

About this "glasses" if they were like we sell them on the video of presentation, its gonna be really good, if not and it was pure render, its another shit.

Also i ahve to say i dont like the metaverse/ inmersive lens, i think that kill the last resort of humanity in us.

We are more and more near to a distopic world,

Yeah I had many years at sea in the US navy which can be hard your eyes 👀
4362  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Terrible smoke conditions in north east USA. Do you use air filters. on: June 07, 2023, 08:09:26 PM
Maybe they were set by wickens. I was going with terrorists.

Back to the air filter part.

I am a life long asthmatic. So I have 3 very high quality air filters.

2 of these at 900 each
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B002VXDCHW/ref=dp_iou_view_item?

1 of these at 1400

https://www.amazon.com/IQAir-MultiGas-Purifier-Medical-Grade-HyperHEPA/dp/B00069EGA0/ref=asc_df_B00069EGA0/?

I have this meter

https://www.pce-instruments.com/us/measuring-instruments/test-meters/air-quality-meter-pce-instruments-air-quality-meter-pce-rcm-11-det_5858892.htm

Normal


with my 3 air filters set to speeds 2 and 3

My PM 2.5 reads 0
My PM 10.0 reads 0 for indoor air

outdoor
PM2.5 reads 7-10
PM 10.0 reads 9-15




Today
with my three air filters set to 6

I get
PM 2.5 is 35-40
PM 10.0 is 45-50 note all of the above are indoor numbers.

If I bring the meter outdoors

PM 2.5  ranges 340 to 440
PM 10.0 ranges 540 to 750

these are really fucking bad numbers.

If I had no air filters I would be in the emergency room right now.

I have 2 other air filters and the whole house ac filter.

So over 5,000 Usd worth of filters

to be at pm2.5  35 vs  pm2.5  340

although I would think  with zero filters but indoors I may be more like 130 to 150.  

The house would block some smoke as would running the ac. Not going to shut the filters off to test it. Grin
4363  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2023, 06:30:30 PM


A mirror image, so that's UP, right?
Nevermind...red candles, but then it is an impossibru pic.

EDIT: btw, the fact that i would need to order prescription inserts makes me less enthusiastic about the whole 'thing'.
What if i have multiple people with glasses in my household? Keep changing the inserts? Ridiculous.

I have had cataract surgery.

about 15 years ago in my right eye and 11 years ago in my left eye.

I have fixed implants one in the left lets that eye see 20-20 one in the right lets that eye see 20-80.

This allows me to see mid range and far range perfectly. So those apple glasses would need me to have 2 different inserts one for each eye. I wonder what fixed prescription I would attempt my eye to see with them.

Maybe just alter one eye from 20-20 to 20-80
4364  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2023, 06:21:26 PM
HODL for decentralized finance!



Wow - A kind of shitcoiner fantasy, no?

...



you do realize the she whacked that alien. So are you rooting for crypto over btc?
4365  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: BRC-20 needs to be removed on: June 07, 2023, 03:30:44 PM
My bigger fear is not BRC-20 it is top pools simply blacklist fees under 50 sats a byte.

But you also have to factor in the possible appreciation of bitcoin into the equation. That is, if the value of bitcoin goes up, even if it is a low fee value, you earn a lot.

Now, do you think the pools will start creating blacklists for those who have low transaction fees? Wouldn't that be acting contrary to what Bitcoin is supposed to do?

Yes but the problem is BTC is so fucking valuable that we will have scaling issues.

2009 to 2012 reward 50 btc    vs  fee 0.01 or 5000 to 1 ratio

2012 to 2016 reward 25 btc    vs  fee 0.025 or 1000 to 1 ratio

2016 to 2020 reward 12.5 btc vs fee  0.050 or   250 to 1 ratio

2020 to 2024 reward 6.25 btc vs fee 0.100 or  62.5 to 1 ratio


note the fees are an in my head guess as the the average value of each block fee

we know 2023 block fees got up to 6 coins

but the Long term average over last 3 years is closer to .1 btc a block

I am okay at math and figuring some trends out.

the reward to fee number ratio shrinks every 4 years.

5000.000 to 1 2009
1000.000 to 1 2012
  250.000 to 1 2016
    62.500 to 1 2020       note in my head estimate.

this means

   15.625 to 1  in 2024 or    3.125 reward and   0.20 in  fees on average
     3.906 to 1  in 2028 then 1.5625 reward and 0.40 in fees

btw we are over the fee average for 2020-2023  of 0.1000 btc

As of the  last 10 blocks

793263-0.96
793262-0.90
793261-0.69 2.55
793260-1.02
793259-0.76
793258-0.91 5.24
793257-0.98
793256-1.11
793255-0.59
793254-1.04
    
they are about 0.896 btc a block

I have read various number for fee average during 2020-2023 as high as .15 btc average as low as .07 average I picked .1 for my ratio comparison

it is easy to see May 1 to June 7 we are above .07 .1 or .15 in fact we are over 1 btc a block for about 37 days.

But it dropped a bit  as May 5 to May 12 it was 2.5 btc a block

now it is .896 btc a block .  This is ordinals+BRC-20+NFT clutter.

I have shown ways in a prior thread that pools can push fees up and turn profits.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2634505.0

a method of pushing fees upward and not being able to directly prove any pool does it.

All of that thread's concepts  can be done by 3 large pools with the ordinal/BRC-20/NFT clutter.

And proving it is hard.

It is obvious people are testing the Blockchain right now to see how easy they can jack fees turn profits and not be fingered for doing it.


I don't fear any of that as much as I fear the top pools simply black list all tx's under 50 sats a byte.

I think we are heading that way.

BTW if ordinals/BRC-20/NFTs are barred and fees drop to 0.1 per block

The top 5 pools will be incentivized to blacklist all 50sats per  or 40sat per and lower tx's

So Once again I say leave the ordinals/BRC-20/NFTs just as they are,

 as I rather deal with a wild dog(brc-20) than a wild lion (blacklisting of <50sats a byte tx's)

oh some opec news

"OPEC+ countries also agreed to extend oil production cuts they announced in April through the end of 2024, reducing the amount of crude they pump into the world market by more than 1 million barrels per day." 3 days ago  from google search "opec to lower oil"

4366  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2023, 12:51:16 PM
Something tells me that the aliens would probably be more interested in crypto than fiat…

What if Bitcoin was the advancement they were waiting for us to make?

Or maybe they just want to steal our cows.



Beef it is what's for dinner!
4367  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2023, 12:45:46 PM
got me a cool email:

"Hello
I know your password!

--snip--

And I MADE A VIDEO SHOWING BOTH YOU (through your webcam) AND THE VIDEO YOU WERE WATCHING (on the screen) WHILE SATISFYING YOURSELF!

I can send this video to all your contacts (email, social network) and publish all your private stuff everywhere!

You can prevent me from doing this!
To stop me, transfer exactly: 400$ with the current bitcoin (BTC) price to my bitcoin address.

If you don't know how to get bitcoin, Google - "How to buy Bitcoin", it's very simple for example with credit card. The wallet you can create here: https://www.blockchain.com

My bitcoin address is: ------SCAMMERblahGrMSR1ktL4Tkow4s------ (disabled it)

I've been getting a lot of the same for years already.
I do have a cam on my monitor, but it's one of those with hardware protection (a lid). I chose it like this on purpose.
Even if it didn't have a physical cover, I'd laugh in their face.
Scum.


I have gotten these for say 10 years.

I looked up the BTC address he/she or it gave me and it has seven $400 dollar deposits. So amazingly he got seven people to pay him.

 Usually when I get these and bother to check the given address it is a dead unused address.
I found it unusual that the address got payments.
4368  Other / Serious discussion / Terrible smoke conditions in north east USA. Do you use air filters. on: June 07, 2023, 03:59:57 AM
So I leave in NJ. There are a lot of Forest fires in Canada, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

PM 2.5 readings are 360
PM 10.0 readings are 540

but are terrible numbers. All fires are more than 50 miles from my home but smoke is think as fuck.

I am running an airfliter  which has dropped numbers to

Pm2.5 = 23
Pm10  = 34

May not clear for days.

anyone else suffering from the smoke.
4369  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Reversible computing is the future. You need to know about this. on: June 07, 2023, 03:54:22 AM
Op I read your prior posts and threads.

I suppose your idea can work.

If I think of a model that all particles are still and simple follow any particle or group of particles in reverse it would work.

While i can go to a book at the last page and go backwards I am simply not capable of understanding how to do that with atomic particles using programing. I actually wish you do it and good luck.
4370  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2023, 03:08:03 AM
got me a cool email:

"Hello

I know your password!

I infected you with a malware (RAT)/(Remote Administration Tool), some time ago and since then, I have been observing your actions. The malware gave me full access and control over your system, meaning, I can see everything on your screen, turn on your camera or microphone and you won't even notice about it, yes such things exist, you can Google it!
I have also access to all your contacts, I collected everything private from you, pictures, videos, everything!

And I MADE A VIDEO SHOWING BOTH YOU (through your webcam) AND THE VIDEO YOU WERE WATCHING (on the screen) WHILE SATISFYING YOURSELF!

I can send this video to all your contacts (email, social network) and publish all your private stuff everywhere!

You can prevent me from doing this!
To stop me, transfer exactly: 400$ with the current bitcoin (BTC) price to my bitcoin address.

If you don't know how to get bitcoin, Google - "How to buy Bitcoin", it's very simple for example with credit card. The wallet you can create here: https://www.blockchain.com

My bitcoin address is: ------SCAt5KGrMSR1ktL4Tkow4s------ (disabled it)

Copy and paste my address - it's (CASE-sensitive).

You know this all isn't a joke, you got the proof above!
I think it's a very good price compared to the damage and hell it can bring into your life!

After receiving the payment, I will delete everything from you and you can life your live in peace like before. I give you 3 days to get the bitcoins!
Don't share this email with anyone, this should stay our little secret!"






Makes me laugh as I would not care if someone posted a video.

Also I do not have a camera on my monitor for this exact reason.
4371  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: BRC-20 needs to be removed on: June 07, 2023, 02:50:37 AM

Fuck if I was a CEO  of one of  the top five pools I would try to do an Opec oil type group and set min trans action at 50 sats just to see what the market does.

Time to fork bitcoin.  Shocked

I'd suggest miner switch to different pool and attempt to revive P2Pool first.


--Why leave the high fee pool?

Indeed it's not exponential, but in long run it'll make time for initial block download become far longer.
far longer or just longer? but isn't there a train of thought that says bitcoin blocks have a maximum size of 4MB so we should just say the blockchain grows at that rate every 10 minutes and adjust your ssd purchases accordingly? isn't that a reasonable expectation rather than to become upset or negative if it happens to not use less than that maximum as often? 4MB is the worst it can get. adjusting our ssd purchases accordingly is the solution. the solution is not to criticize bitcoin for using what it is allowed to.

If the trends (~1.8 MB average block size after Ordinal popularity) continues compared with past trend (~1.2 MB average block size), i would say far longer if we project in next 10 years. In terms of size there would be ~307GB difference (see calculation below).

Code:
0.6 MB * 144 blocks (total blocks mined per day) * 365 (days) * 10 (years) = 315360 MB (~307 GB)

With BRC-20 (and similar protocol), the worst part isn't storage but rather UTXO growth. In last 2 months, total UTXO is increased by about 15 millions.


Source: https://www.statoshi.info/d/000000009/unspent-transaction-output-set?orgId=1&refresh=10m&viewPanel=6&from=now-1y&to=now

oh and by the way, in case people haven't noticed, ssd prices have been plumetting.  Shocked

And here i still use HDD to store Bitcoin blockchain.

If they blacklist all tx under 50 sats a byte it would be some real fun.

I have to think they will try it.
They will actually lose money during sparse block periods if they try that. I cannot recommend this.

But IMO it comes down to whether which party lose patience first. Could be either pools who lose fair amount of money or Bitcoiner who want their transaction confirmed quickly.


Note bold question.

I mine it is a business
I need fee income
Every ½ ing fee income is more critical and the Block reward lessons.

I will be the first to say while I like to see a 6.25 reward and 4.75 in fees = 11 btc per block but I know it hurts the business of btc if it continues for say 1 or 2 years in a row.

My fears for down the road of ½ ing rewards are getting fees to work well enough for

miners, pools and users of btc.

6.25 + 0.75 = 7 seems to work okay

6.25 + 5.7 = 12 seems to be an issue if it goes for a long time 6 months a year seem bad.

so in a year

3.125 + 0.875 = 4 seems okay

3.125 + 5.875 = 9 seems wrong a real problem

in 2028

1.5625 + 0.9375 = 2.5 still may work

1.5625 + 5.4375 = 7.0 seem wrong a real problem



on and on and on

I worry for this to get worse as time goes on.

My bigger fear is not BRC-20 it is top pools simply blacklist fees under 50 sats a byte.
4372  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2023, 07:43:28 PM
BTC bouncing back a bit.  26.7k

Best case is fed tries and fails once again with a +0.25% jump june 14-15.

Sooner or later feds will give up the fight.

We have June then july then oct

They won’t break btc with three more jumps and will need to pivot.

I see a very nice fall coming.
4373  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: June 06, 2023, 06:15:00 PM

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com


Nice I just picked up some btc at 25.7 and moved it off coinbase.

things are looking good.
4374  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2023, 11:29:44 PM
SEC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao for ‘mishandling billions of dollars’

When will the SEC get round to suing the Federal Reserve and Jamie Demon for doing that exact thing but for far longer?

 Roll Eyes

they are not mishandling dollars. congress and the prez are doing that.

22 bad budgets in  a row. All falls on

1)tax too low laws  for
2)spending too high laws.




And congress and the prez write those laws

BTW be ready for +0.25%  in 9 days time.
4375  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: June 05, 2023, 11:00:48 PM
Ok that I understand, but can't they just buy BTC instead? Or is it because they need to borrow money and need to have a collateral of physical goods like mining gears?

In other words, your money or not, don't you always want to invest in what makes you more profit?

I bolded what the tax laws favor in the USA.

4376  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: BRC-20 needs to be removed on: June 05, 2023, 09:43:37 PM
Nope , you are wrong . If someone has enough liquidity can transact infinitely in LN without closing it's channel/s . In what way that person supports the miners ? On the contrary , with a very small investment , LN nodes work like parasites that suck fees from the true backbone of the system , that has cost billions of investment . Imagine if all transactions move to LN , and miners just wait to be paid from opening and closing channel fees . How would that be sustainable ?
That will never happen.

It will take decades to open channels for 8 billion people (assuming all transactions are LN-related, which they aren't, since we also have Ordinals and other stuff).

Besides, BTC uses a free market system to determine fees: https://mempool.space/

If fees drop again to 4 cents per TX (it happened a few months ago), who's going to use LN compared to on-chain?

It's a self-regulating system (just like the hashing difficulty). There's nothing to worry about.

As long as the top five pools do not blacklist all tx under 50 sats a byte.

Fuck if I was a CEO  of one of  the top five pools I would try to do an Opec oil type group and set min trans action at 50 sats just to see what the market does.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/pools


Summary of Mined Blocks
Miner / Pool--------Percent

Foundry USA-------33.333%

AntPool-------------22.337%

F2Pool--------------13.574%

Binance Pool--------9.794%

ViaBTC--------------8.419%

total of ----------- over 87.2%

If they blacklist all tx under 50 sats a byte it would be some real fun.

I have to think they will try it.



4377  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: June 05, 2023, 06:43:33 PM
The sheer amount of money US investors can throw at everything is just mind-blowing, they can throw money, see the business failing, throw more money, see the company going bankrupt, and even during restructuring again another shitload of money dumped in it.

They got the printing machine at home, nothing beats that. Cheesy


Quote
If farms were able to deal with the slump to 5-6 cents per th/s last year then it's pretty sure they can deal with this in the future with cheaper electricity and far more efficient gear. So, worst-case scenario we could go about 30-40% in advance to any price growth in difficulty.
Oh.. not mentioning that fees still make 0.25 - 0.5 a block, despite the weekend.

Cheap electricity will depend on a few factors, geopolitical status, how cold the next winter, and the economy of the U.S and EU, those large U.S miners have "cheaper" elecitity almost guaranteed, but it's only a matter of time before they have nobody else left to compete with them and they will start competing against one another, now the electrcity game is easy to play, you and your friends pay 2-4 cents, the rest of the world pay 6-10 cents, you can just keep adding gears knowing for sure that those other guys will have to shrink while you expand.

Eventually, when you kick all of those 6-10 cents folks, the rules of the game change, you now pay the average cost just like most others, it's no longer an easy game, and then you got the halving, those S19 XPs won't ROI in their BTC domination until probably 2025-2026, you will need everything to stay the same for things to work out, next year is going to be fun to watch.

big companies do not pay in btc.
they pay in cash.

They mine and spilt hodl the btc profits.

its all about churning O.P.M.

other people’s money.


4378  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: BRC-20 needs to be removed on: June 05, 2023, 05:37:36 PM

As a miner its cool 😎 to see the high fees.

 The key 🔑 is do the high fees break the back of the 25k support.

Crashing us to a nice dip buy. Or do the crazy ass degenerate players that think they can break btc price support bust out.

The worst possible thing is removing BRC20 which would be fully admitting that BTC is a loser and can be broken by a piece of shit thing like BRC20

If you believe in btc you should support it by doing a few btc moves and paying high fees over the next two weeks.

IE on or two 10 dollar fees paid won’t break you over the next two weeks.


Crying to developers to fix it and having the developers do something is terrible.

Think of the future when fees are too small to support miners will you be crying for developers to raise the fees? I think not. Guess what miners will do down the road they will move to scrypt algo or any algo that supports mining.

Btc traders and users want small tiny fees miners want bigass fees.

The play goes back and forth.

Lets see what happens by June 1.

My guess is fees drop down and things go back to normal.

At 144 blocks a day and paying 1 or 2 coins each block you are spending 4.2 to 8.4 million a day in extra fees.

The people doing this will run out of coin. May take all of May but they will shoot their load and be spent.

I quoted myself about a month later. Fees are down to under 1 btc a block vs 2+ btc a block

last 10 blocks on June 5th

792990 ----- 0.61
792989 ----- 0.73
792988 ----- 0.72 > 2.06
792987 ----- 0.48
792986 ----- 0.56
792985 ----- 0.54 > 3.64
792984 ----- 0.59
792983 ----- 0.63
792982 ----- 0.57
792981 ----- 0.73 > 6.16



far less than may 9th date of my quoted post.

789000-----2.19
788999-----3.93
788998-----5.69 ----- 11.81
788997-----1.78
788996-----3.35
788995-----1.76 -----18.7
788994-----1.73
788993-----1.85
788992-----1.73
788991-----1.84-----25.85



Developers did nothing and fees went down bigly. May 9th to June 5th.

give the developers a pat on the back for the "wait and see move".


6.16 is way down from 25.85
4379  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2023, 05:26:13 PM
whoa is me.

The mine keeps expanding.

we have 3x our btc hashrate since sept 2022.

Meanwhile a 25.7k price means get some dip .

My weekly dca is weds.
4380  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2023, 03:20:46 AM
well by by 57 hour 27k streak
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