Because that wouldn't be science
Hairy, you’ve been right on most things so far in this cycle. I love your works  Right? I love his work too, but charts are off due to the fact that we are off the 2014-2015 graph. What now? Most likely, we are already on the parabolic rise. The only question is when this local exponential rise ends (and it will end, obviously). To see this, find BETI thread and maybe Peter Brandt's graph here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg50603641#msg50603641. I also had some exponent here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg50479459#msg50479459 , but we did not have the "wiggle" , so it is happening even faster than I expected. IMHO, AH is entirely possible even in 2019, albeit less likely still. |
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I have problems keeping up with all these forks. I put my BTC on a paper wallet back in 2014. What forks do I get now for that? BCash, BGold. Do I also get BTC SV? Since I still have no BCash because I did not move my BTC since 2014.
First make sure that you transfer/sweep ALL of btc to a new wallet first. Even experienced people sometimes forget about change, make a small tx, then proceed to lose the rest of it. https://bitcoinpaperwallet.com/wallet-tutorial-add-withdraw-funds/Some wallets (Exodus?) can help to recover multiple forks, although BCH+BSV is probably at least 90% of the rest sans btc proper. |
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Tinfoil time(not really though bc this all could very well be true): What if this megapump of the last few weeks has been Facebook secretly buying up mostly Bitcoin but also a basket of other major cryptos to create a buzz in Crypto as they start leaking out their Globalcoin plans.  Also adding to this pump would have been insiders aware of Facebooks impending plans and buying Bitcoin to profit from such big news for Crypto in general. Facebook might also realize its Globalcoin plans will be immensely good for the bitcoin price(hint: it is  ) I beg to differ: it is not good for bitcoin at all. It would have been if they used btc, of course. Now, instead of talking about Bitcoin story, all mass media would keep talking about is how facebook is "improving" bitcoin. In reality: what exactly would support this stable coin for millions of people to use? I don't think that banks would be happy with this. And governments? This would essentially mean facebook minting currency, which they obviously can't. One interesting side effect: this would either kill XRP completely or banksters would run to it in lieu of facebookcoin. Here (replace E-coin with facebookcoin): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ee-cHbCI0s |
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at the end of the day 1 came out profitable!) Total 1/6)
For me the most important thing is that I recognized my mistakes! It costs a lot
I remember reading a blog of one very prominent trader (sorry, I forgot the linky). He said: 1. if your last 4-5 trades went bad, become very defensive. 2. if your last 4-5 trades were profitable, become very aggressive. I lost a large chunk of my trading equity in 2001-2002 since I only knew the bull market of 1997-2001 prior to that. Nothing worked, but I kept 'buying the dip'. It was a good lesson. And good value for money is my guess: eventually in the green anyway, unless you sodl or got rekt. Are you referring to this blog by any chance? http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2011/10/things-ive-learned-after-15-years-of.htmlSomeone posted a link to it just a few days ago. I think it was Last of the V8s. yeah, that one, thanks and same to LotV8 (for posting it). |
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Trying to revive this long-abandoned thread. According to -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986Current BETI score is -1.605 (quite low with lowest score of about 2.3). Expected price (BETI=0) is at $40284 A critical level is about BETI=-1. Every time it got to -1 (right now, about $14.8 K in my estimate), market accelerated further or much further within a few months. |
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at the end of the day 1 came out profitable!) Total 1/6)
For me the most important thing is that I recognized my mistakes! It costs a lot
I remember reading a blog of one very prominent trader (sorry, I forgot the linky). He said: 1. if your last 4-5 trades went bad, become very defensive. 2. if your last 4-5 trades were profitable, become very aggressive. I lost a large chunk of my trading equity in 2001-2002 since I only knew the bull market of 1997-2001 prior to that. Nothing worked, but I kept 'buying the dip'. It was a good lesson. |
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They are going to seek stability versus a basket of fiat currencies rather that USD dollars. I guess a basket of USD/EUR/JPY basket, maybe adding other relevant currencies as they expand towards new markets. Effectively it will be a new dollar index, they will be able to use traditional FX hedges to stabilise the value of the thing. Makes sense. I wonder what many a government will feel when a weird little Vulcan suddenly wields a universe more power than they can possibly dream of. I'd be shelving it and returning to practicing my blinking if I were him. Yeah, remember what happened last time a large pseudo-monopolist claimed that that they will soon take the 'vig' from all transactions? cough-Microsoft-cough Not going to happen TM |
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IMHO, facebookcoin is such horseshite, I don't know why anybody could be happy about it. What, exactly, is the point of it? I don't see them passing ANY regulation from the FED, though. We should support J. Dorsey intended use of btc (twitter&square), instead. |
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I guess, two points are clear (from the lively discussion):
1. Everyone wants more btc (and regrets prior decision to not acquire more).
2. It's difficult to get a good flow of btc now, be it from either mining or 'campaigning'. I don't even want to start with btc interest-that clearly won't work long term (blockfi, celsius, etc).
Conclusion: should have bought or 'earned' more, but the only realistic way now is through the ret. funds, if and when that spigot opens up.
I am thinking, maybe >5%, but = or < than 10% allocation in IRA and/or Roth.
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My campaign got stomped by the Feds and I can't find a new one. The camps get filled almost instantly and it always happen when I am not in front of a PC, and I am almost 7/24 in front of a pc.
If my campaign winds down I think that'll be my last one unless something unexpected pops up. All that'll be left will be gambling pretty much and my only opinions on gambling are that it's evil and shit. I doubt that attitude would be much of an asset to them. I looked a bit and some newer "campaigns" pay relative peanuts, yet demand a lot of activity. The one's that don't accept new members look better. Oh, well. It's just it is difficult (and not very profitable) to mine btc now. |
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Funny thing, I see no campaign for you...so I don't see how it could possibly work (for the advertizer).
Notice the sig I am wearing and the avatar too. They are from Bitcasino 🙂 All I see is the letter B and then a text that is not very specific, sorry. Ah, after you added the note, I understand. |
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Just consider the bitcasino one. 0.02BTC times 52 weeks and that 1.04BTC a year.
Sometimes I feel this urge to wear the WO hat but then again I tell myself every satoshi counts for the future and when it's free then just take it. I also feel honored to wear this sig by the way. I mean look at the campaign we are only five here. It's a privilege too.
Funny thing, I see no campaign for you...so I don't see how it could possibly work (for the advertizer). |
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What market? Internet access?
Yup. In huge swathes of the world where it wasn't accessible before. Improved bandwidth at good ping times for every home that is not yet connected directly to glass-fibre. Plus anything without a fixed location. Similar to the Iridium network, but with many more satellites at much lower altitude, to provide more bandwidth and lower latency. The first 60 v0.9 sats only relay via (local) ground stations, but Starlink is designed to have laser-based communication and routing directly between sats, so it doesn't really matter where the ground stations are and laser in vacuum travels faster than light in glass. Internet via geostationary satellites need to go 38000 km op and down (and always route via ground stations), Starlink just 400 km up/down. The phase-array antenna chips and rest of the satellites is designed and build by SpaceX, and they use there own (re-used) rocket first stages and recovered payload fairings. Will be a while before competitors reach that level of vertical cost reductions. Ground stations are a limitation. I would have preferred something that could be received by a small local antenna, like HD-TV. price needs to be lower as well. I am tired of getting bamboozled by the local cable monopolist. |
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Wow, hidden in the news is a fact that facebook has an access to a "time machine" /s The bitcoin-inspired cryptocurrency, reportedly dubbed GlobalCoin, is set to be rolled out for testing by the end of 2018 |
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Ah, it's a number that I got in a calculation (for a projected scenario), not a coin that I may or may not have.
TL;DR: too high a price of bitcoin (in the multiple millions) will result in a drastic increase in global millionaire numbers (if hodlers do not sell en masse), which is unlikely, therefore the price in the multiple millions is unlikely.
My calculated upper bound price of btc that does not affect the total number of millionaires too much is about $1mil/btc.
I don't see multi-million BTC as implausible in 2030-2050 and certainly not beyond. Perhaps, but I was only talking (effectively) about the next 5-10 years, which is a time period where i have the most interest. |
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The btc addr of that QR code ....is not a segwit address...  yet, new generation chooses btc! |
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Relax and start planning to make your dreams come true. Financial freedom at the horizon is imo already a certain outcome.
Somehow, i have this nagging feeling that it might not happen. Essentially, it would mean minting of millions of new millionares. Too much deviation. I actually tried to calculate what would be the price of btc be for total numbers of millionaires going up by less than 10% (from the current 33-36 mil millionaires). I got about 0.86btc-1.28btc for $1 mil or 780K-1.16mil/btc (for total of about 2.75-3.5 mil accounts). This is possible, but too much of a dream. How often dreams come to a realization? I had the same vibe at 20K...feeling that it is somehow wrong. Maybe too early? You should hold that one full coin for atleast 5-10 years. I know it is a long time but you will reap the benefits big time. Ah, it's a number that I got in a calculation (for a projected scenario), not a coin that I may or may not have. TL;DR: too high a price of bitcoin (in the multiple millions) will result in a drastic increase in global millionaire numbers (if hodlers do not sell en masse), which is unlikely, therefore the price in the multiple millions is unlikely. My calculated upper bound price of btc that does not affect the total number of millionaires too much is about $1mil/btc. |
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Is there any impact on cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin if that "facebookcoin" will launch?
Like, it is possible the market cap of some cryptocurrency will decrease because of facebook?
Facebookcoin will be everything bitcoin is not. It'll be reversible, blockable, confiscatible, its value will be tied to the fiat currencies it's pegged to, and most importantly to many it won't make you any money. Remittance is the one area I can see it eating cryptos theoretical lunch but then again they're partnering with Western Union which won't be a bargain. I think Facebook will turn out to have bitten off more than they can chew. Compliance will be an utter nightmare. If it's to have any effect it'll be to remind people how important the real deal is. I fail to see the point of such facebookcoin. Why would someone need a monstrosity seemingly correlated with a basket of currencies? That means that you can still lose value. A 'stable" currency that is not stable? If it is not stable, then you are still liable for the capital gains? Who needs it? It's a lame attempt of outdoing Wechat, I suppose. |
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Relax and start planning to make your dreams come true. Financial freedom at the horizon is imo already a certain outcome.
Somehow, i have this nagging feeling that it might not happen. Essentially, it would mean minting of millions of new millionares. Too much deviation. I actually tried to calculate what would be the price of btc be for total numbers of millionaires going up by less than 10% (from the current 33-36 mil millionaires). I got about 0.86btc-1.28btc for $1 mil or 780K-1.16mil/btc (for total of about 2.75-3.5 mil accounts). This is possible, but too much of a dream. How often dreams come to a realization? I had the same vibe at 20K...feeling that it is somehow wrong. Maybe too early? |
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....these are the days that will form what you become.
err, no, too late for me, I am already fully grown  The price is about $3k higher than it should be at this part of the cycle. We are already higher than what the December 2019 peak should be. It’s all gravy.  Am I the only one kind of wishing their lives away until a point in the future, probably late 2021 or something? No, I've got kind of a low key depression going on. I should be enjoying every moment of life, but I feel like I'm just going through the motions every day and just trying to "survive" until I can retire within 2-3 years, hopefully. It makes me wish I was in a coma for three years. ATM, I'd probably be happier if I never heard of bitcoin. Weird situation  And I feel bad for feeling bad about this. We need a fucking therapist in this thread. This board is a good therapy, IMHO. maybe you should charge subscription (by the hour)...JK |
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