Just wanted to show you guys some math about what are the dynamics when XMR overtakes LTC as the second marketcap coin. As usual, the post is many points and they contain math but that's what I do.

Currently:

LTC's supply 31.1M, price $4.85, mktcap with current # of coins $151M.

XMR's supply 2.8M, price $1.72, mktcap with current # of coins $4.8M.


- Using 3 methods of calculating XMR internal growth rate (difference between estd number of users - calculated in both cases with 2 methods), price attractor (aminorex) and growth of the subscriptions of missives, the growth currently seems to be 2.2-2.5% per day.

- This growth is long-term unsustainable because it would lead to 30 million users in a year, which does not seem possible in cryptospace given BTC's slow progress and the fact that others are behind.

- So we must make a much toned-down assumption that the growth is only 1.2% per day during the time until LTC is conquered. Even this would lead to 1 million users in one year so albeit less than the current rate, it is still long-term unachievable so far.

- LTC price is continuously dropping, and this trend is expected to continue at the rate of -1.1% per day as it has been since December. The dropping price does not really let so many people exit LTC totally, so we expect that it retains the userbase of 100,000 (this may be quite off - I don't have much data to research the subject that does not interest me).

- XMR inflation must be taken into account. In the near term, it is going from 0.8% per day to 0.4%. We use the average, 0.6%.

- There is a coefficient related to Metcalfe law, which means basically that when the coin grows bigger, the average value stored per user grows bigger also. This leads to the observation that price grows faster than userbase. In BTC, the effect is seemingly small, 0.1% per day, so let's add it here also.

Result: XMR is raking internal growth at 1.2%, minus inflation -0.6%, plus network effects 0.1%, total +0.7% per diem.
LTC is losing -1.1% per diem. Difference is 1.8%-points.


LTC starts with a head start of 31 times bigger market cap.

After making the calculations, it seems that it takes 192 days for XMR to overtake LTC. Yes, much, in a way, but it is only 2015-2-22.

Furthermore, above we were actually comparing prices, and not marketcaps. XMR marketcap would actually be higher because of its higher inflation during this time. That would be a bit extra work and likely tilt the result to January.

I smell a bet here....

I think his point was not to argue that. Things do look weak, and the point was to say that it may take one more year before turning better.

But the downside is so little that it still makes sense to be fully invested. Every week the adoption/infrastructure gets stronger, so you're on the winning side. Personally I don't think it'll take a year, rather a month. Meanwhile Monero is doing a really good job and looks much stronger if BTC looks weaker - a hedge, that is

Sleeping the usual ~8 hours per night.


I have no intention to cut the numbers here, since that would go against the definition of volatility I myself introduced. Thinking about it again, that measure (daily variance of price change) couldn't be more meaningless for anything but whatever - you won this round. Now welcome to the winners' club and buy Monero!

Yes definitely, people see BTC dropping and buy vaporware to secure the gains. /sarcasm

Well I have bought more Monero as diversification, but Ethereum is not in my "qualified btc hedges list".

I thought about investing a few months, and when decided to invest, the high price delayed it an additional few months. Bought in starting at $3 and made my first meaningful exit at $675, trading here and there.

Currently I am more interested in Monero, though. Monero makes me feel like Bitcoin in 2010, tons of potential and a $6MM market cap. I actually was there so I can compare the feeling. It will become really big, 1000x gain just to match what Bitcoin is now.

Many are willing to buy in but do not understand that when the turn comes, they may not have the opportunity. The ones who waited in 0.002315 are still waiting to buy in. I would forecast that the definite turn happens next week. My original forecast was Sunday, this week, but today's action was weak and vwap was lower than yesterday, hence the delay.

Technically etc., the coin is doing fine. So I am afraid the boom mentioned in the first paragraph may start happening already this week. (My forecast is still next week.) 0.00334 looks like it is close but will prove to be strong as a wall, making this the last cheap entry.

Mustering the time to do this which requires actual work is more difficult than anticipated... Soon!

Meanwhile, enjoy pictures of Malla!

You are in good company.

1. Volatility is the variance of price over time. Now, since Bitcoin has had 10,000%+ runs during its history along with -93% declines, and Monero has had neither, the burden of mathematical/statistical proof is on you. Please make your calculations.

2. I checked your post history and would like to ask why you so bitter against many people?

When I was choosing between the two, I personally felt that both the block interval and coin generation schedule were better in BBR. But unfortunately all the other things were worse, with legitimacy on the top of the list.

Re:shilltrolls. That is hard to avoid because monero is so good.

There are private forums, and one will probably be set up soon as part of some initiatives that I know of, but cannot tell of, but know of so much that am buying right now, perhaps the last week of cheap monero.

Hm, if I am included in "everyone", that leads to an interesting contradiction...

But really, even Bitcoin is not suffering this kind of campaign. It really strengthens my conviction that we are doing things right.

And more - many are ready to invest, but think they are so smart as to be able to catch a bottom. Sometimes they manage pretty well, cf. my first buy at $3 after my decision to invest was already made before the spike to $32 but the price just wasn't right for several months.

A new level with a new banner will be created for every new crate of diamonds (but can be left not shown if it is empty, ie eg smooth has 3,000+ and the next one has 1999-). Also the dan rating will increase with every total amount starting with 1,2 and 5, so a 2500 donation increases that as well.

I did not see your question. And even if I did, I "pick my battles" (choose which questions to answer) by the following criterion:


If it does not, I make a new post or new thread. If it does, I reply to the previous one.

As you noticed, this is "avoidance of the question" but hey if your time was worth as much as mine, you also would not assume a responsibility of responding to Internet trolls for free, just because they so request. 

Well the car is already shown (only 3 cars are planned, and 1 is not yet bought, 1 in in repairs and the last one is already shown in the internet).

Cigar room is forbidden to photograph.

So it must be the wine cellar. But do it from outside, no not reveal how much we have there to the robbers..

What are the reasons why anyone would ever select anything except the best mixing value? Does it cost something?

This is not a monero speculating thread, but I am very interested to watch the price action in Poloniex. The chances of a capitulation below 0.00334 have been eradicated overnight, so the buyers are looking at a double bottom, with very little asks below 0.004.

The ship is turning, but the turn will be slow. After such downtrend, there is no urge to panic, and when the urge develops, we are already that much higher that the inflation and speculator selling will smoothen the way.

I <3 XMR! 

(Note to others: Newton lived between 1642-1727)

World-changing events tend to happen in certain timescales, and the time is typically not as short as days or weeks, but also not as long as decades or centuries. I would say Jesus' public ministry of 3.5 years is an example of this. The culminating events of crucifixion, death, burial and resurrection happened in a matter of days, but the whole thing prior to this was very public and noted by the Jew authorities in their private meetings by: "what can we do? the whole world is running after this man  ", also by Emmaus' road discussion regarding Jesus' death: "you must be the only stranger in Jerusalem who does not know what has happened!"

I am quite confident that the western "civilization" is the cancer described in the Bible as "kosmos", translated "world", the suffocating systematized institution of human life, and ultimately death, when they have enslaved everybody and can freely start killing people with no fear of human intervention.

The tipping point is near. The world economy is horribly mismanaged, up to 95% of people are doing nonproductive work (productive work is such that would still be done even when people like me are in control, or that you as a private person would contract someone to do - everything else is up to 99% just waste that is produced to keep people busy from realizing their wretched condition).

There is no choice for the banks and the subservient governments. They stop the credit expansion now - it collapses. They postpone it one more year - it collapses that much harder. They try to keep people from realizing what's going on. But the realization is one way: you take the red pill, there is no turning back. Many people are taking it every day. When the collapse and the tribulations come, much more people will be taking it.

The Bible says that many will not take it, preferring to stay with their masters that are going to Hell. I don't know why some people are so stupid, but I cannot change this unpleasant part of the truth, any more than I can change other hard-to-swallow things.

Judging from the speed that the bankers, with U.S. federal apparatus as their main strongarm, are trying to eliminate all liberty from this world, I also would venture to guess that we are already living the times of Revelation, with the change of age happening in less than 30 years.

Yes, quite much indeed, as I spend (up to) hours daily on the subject.

A short description suffices since this is the last thing before sleep today: It is going in waves, and the volatility is decreasing. If we make a higher low, which is quite probable after 0.00231, we are on track to higher prices. Buy low, sell high (if at all). I would consider now we are "low" since the all time average price is about 0.00410.