[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread

[rpietila]

Once again, a possible distribution of the moneros:

Code:

		12500	207	2 590 177	100 %
at least	xmr	people	average	total	percent
at least	1024	234	6937	1623321	63 %
at least	512	257	708	181 981	7 %
at least	256	565	351	198 297	8 %
at least	128	1131	177	200 179	8 %
at least	64	2035	89	181 073	7 %
at least	32	2646	46	121 931	5 %
at least	16	2443	23	57 057	2 %
at least	8	1696	12	19 812	1 %
at least	4	848	6	4 987	0 %
less than 	4	645	2	1 539	0 %

Because there is no direct data to be found, this is based on:
- the number of moneros (public)
- the number of users (recently estimated based on data, see prev post)
- estimation that power law holds, which means, among others, that 1% owns 50%
- due to information found during recent attempts to compile a richlist, extra coins are added to the top 3% (this can be "democratic" if the coins are found in the 1000-20000 XMR segment or "top-heavy" if they belong to ones owning 20000+ XMR)

[1714892477]

1714892477

[MoneroMooo]

Assuming 2.26% daily growth sustained for a year seems outrageously high, no ?

You are apparently comparing values obtained using two different methodologies. While the method used for the second one seems more accurate, have you tried estimating current number of users now the same way as when you did the previous time ?

Also, it would not surprise me that Monero would see a higher rate of growth at start compared with bitcoin, as bitcoin did not have the "bitcoin is the new... something" effect that monero currently enjoys. So there may be a lot of people on the lookout and ready to jump early on Monero, while the same rough type of people would have go more gradually onto bitcoin, not driven by a perceived sense of urgency to get in in time. Just thinking about it here, not based on data.

On the other hand, it's also possible that (part of) these people on the lookout would add up onto the typical bitcoin-y adoption curve, rather than "move downtime" on it.

It was a very interesting read, thank you for sharing.

[statdude]

There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.

*ding*

This sounds valuable to me.  I will be AFK for a while to sleep and do a fair day's work for my employer, but would like to discuss how I can help make this data beautiful and accessible for the community.

Aminorex, get to it buddy, XMR is your new employer  .

Here's a very ugly attempt of my own from rpiet's data.

Hopefully someone finds it useful. It attempts to measure price versus breakeven mining sell price in XMR/BTC. According to this, XMR is cheap right now.

[parker928]

If I seem to be advocating XMR, it's because I am.  I think there is no freedom without privacy, and XMR is one of the best defenses technology has ever offered against the inhumane oppressions which technological society has created.  I put my money where my mouth is, so I will gain from the appreciation in value which I strongly anticipate will be found in Monero over the long haul.



I'm guessing that a miner education campaign would go a long way towards stabilizing price at a higher level.  Therefore I will fight any miner education campaign tooth and nail, to widen and extend my accumulation window.

EDIT: however, my teeth are expensive, and my nails are trim, so I should arrange to retire from the fight early.  If I vowed to fight with firearms, steel, dimethyl mercury, or nukes, it should be taken more seriously.

I agree 100% miner education campaign would be great. Excellent idea

[smooth]

It attempts to measure price versus breakeven mining sell price in XMR/BTC. According to this, XMR is cheap right now.

It would be helpful to state your assumptions (GPU cost, power cost, etc.)

[darlidada]

... If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.

It does.

We're lucky to have you Rpietila. Thanks again for sharing your work with us!

[digicoin]

It attempts to measure price versus breakeven mining sell price in XMR/BTC. According to this, XMR is cheap right now.

It would be helpful to state your assumptions (GPU cost, power cost, etc.)

* digicoin curious too. Please publish your data

[nakaone]

do you guys have an idea how to measure the diffusion/ distribution of xmr OUTSIDE of bitcointalk - I mean this baby is libertarians dream and I have the feeling that it is almost unknown outside of bitcointalk.

[statdude]

Sure, guys:

-Had to chance my assumptions a bit as I've had some trouble getting the correct hash/watt ratio. I've found 2.45 hash/watt is relatively a good estimate based on my research (Example: Miner getting 3660 h/s from rig for about 1500 watts)

So:
-2.45 Hash/Watt (this may have been higher a few weeks ago, or for miners on average. It's simply based on some examples of 6x R9-290 rigs as of 2 weeks ago)
-93% after fees/orphans
-0.086 power cost - about as low as you can go, if you're the one footing the bill

Everything else is simply based on the blockchain stats available.

Here is the new chart.

[Dotto]

The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

[statdude]

The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

It's basically a matter of demand vs supply.

Demand and supply are currently pretty closely balanced. However, demand will hopefully increase, and supply should decrease, as designed with the block reward. The only way supply would increase would be if miners left Monero faster than the negative effect on supply of the decreasing block reward.

That won't happen unless interest drastically drops, causing price to decline, causing miners to leave for more profitable coins.

Essentially, demand drives everything as far as I can tell. Fortunately, daily demand for XMR only has to stay flat for the price to increase as block reward decreases, so it has an inherent advantage vs supply.

[rpietila]

The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

Yes, quite much indeed, as I spend (up to) hours daily on the subject.

A short description suffices since this is the last thing before sleep today: It is going in waves, and the volatility is decreasing. If we make a higher low, which is quite probable after 0.00231, we are on track to higher prices. Buy low, sell high (if at all). I would consider now we are "low" since the all time average price is about 0.00410.

[equipoise]

<suspicious>

The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

Yes, quite much indeed, as I spend (up to) hours daily on the subject.

A short description suffices since this is the last thing before sleep today: It is going in waves, and the volatility is decreasing. If we make a higher low, which is quite probable after 0.00231, we are on track to higher prices. Buy low, sell high (if at all). I would consider now we are "low" since the all time average price is about 0.00410.

I sold XMR two times in previous lows. It'll go lower and lower before I sell.
</suspicious>
Edit: <suspicious> tags added to all the conversation.

[vuduchyld]

The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

I'd say that the entire altcoin market is performing pretty badly.  This last week has been brutal.  If you take out BTC and just look at the alt cap (or most subsets of the cap that I track), alts are down 20-25%.  I would at least take, as a data point, that Monero has held up an awful lot better over the last week than the market.  Could be that, as has been pointed out, the current price is reasonably inexpensive compared to value.

Your mileage may vary.

[JohnyMonero]

Here is the new chart.

The graphics is so amazing that nobody can doubt about XMR profitability!!!

[mineshaft]

Here is the new chart.

The graphics is so amazing that nobody can doubt about XMR profitability!!!

It was obvious even without graphics!

[bingopoint]

Monero economy is good to the industry. I suggest everyone to join our community!

[Achile$]

Monero economy is good to the industry. I suggest everyone to join our community!

So if you are reading this post and you are not an XMR user you should download XMR wallet right now.

[Globb0]

Following this thread with interest.

[rpietila]

Just wanted to show you guys some math about what are the dynamics when XMR overtakes LTC as the second marketcap coin. As usual, the post is many points and they contain math but that's what I do.

Currently:

LTC's supply 31.1M, price $4.85, mktcap with current # of coins $151M.

XMR's supply 2.8M, price $1.72, mktcap with current # of coins $4.8M.


- Using 3 methods of calculating XMR internal growth rate (difference between estd number of users - calculated in both cases with 2 methods), price attractor (aminorex) and growth of the subscriptions of missives, the growth currently seems to be 2.2-2.5% per day.

- This growth is long-term unsustainable because it would lead to 30 million users in a year, which does not seem possible in cryptospace given BTC's slow progress and the fact that others are behind.

- So we must make a much toned-down assumption that the growth is only 1.2% per day during the time until LTC is conquered. Even this would lead to 1 million users in one year so albeit less than the current rate, it is still long-term unachievable so far.

- LTC price is continuously dropping, and this trend is expected to continue at the rate of -1.1% per day as it has been since December. The dropping price does not really let so many people exit LTC totally, so we expect that it retains the userbase of 100,000 (this may be quite off - I don't have much data to research the subject that does not interest me).

- XMR inflation must be taken into account. In the near term, it is going from 0.8% per day to 0.4%. We use the average, 0.6%.

- There is a coefficient related to Metcalfe law, which means basically that when the coin grows bigger, the average value stored per user grows bigger also. This leads to the observation that price grows faster than userbase. In BTC, the effect is seemingly small, 0.1% per day, so let's add it here also.

Result: XMR is raking internal growth at 1.2%, minus inflation -0.6%, plus network effects 0.1%, total +0.7% per diem.
LTC is losing -1.1% per diem. Difference is 1.8%-points.


LTC starts with a head start of 31 times bigger market cap.

After making the calculations, it seems that it takes 192 days for XMR to overtake LTC. Yes, much, in a way, but it is only 2015-2-22.

Furthermore, above we were actually comparing prices, and not marketcaps. XMR marketcap would actually be higher because of its higher inflation during this time. That would be a bit extra work and likely tilt the result to January.

I smell a bet here....