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4421  Economy / Speculation / Re: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 on: August 26, 2018, 08:06:16 PM
Maybe it can't be avoided, but its magnitude can and should decrease, simply because the speculation can't continue forever. The price of Bitcoin has been so volatile because people have different opinions on Bitcoin fundamentals, some say it's useless, others believe it's going to change the world, and this is the fuel for speculation. Take gold for example, it's the opposite of Bitcoin - it's boring, people have figured out all major use-cases long ago, nothing changes in its ecosystem. Eventually Bitcoin will become boring too, protocol improvements will become less frequent, adoption will be slow after reaching certain point, and with because of that there will be no reasons for the price to jump/crash, because Bitcoin will be predictable.

ah, but even gold can be highly volatile. that was a 600-700% increase we saw during the '01-'11 bull run! as a trader, that's a hell of a trend to ride. maybe not quite bitcoin-level volatility, but definitely not boring either. the crash saw a nearly 50% drop from the ATH as well.

it's interesting to ponder---how the price trajectory should or will look. it's incredibly speculative, and more than that, there are no comparable assets to study. we often see comparisons to adoption curves (like the internet or cell phones), but no technology ever incorporated a native currency with a predictable, limited supply. it's a totally novel thing that we have no historical comparison for.
4422  Economy / Speculation / Re: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 on: August 25, 2018, 09:06:23 PM
People don't often think about it, but Bitcoin will at some point become so large, that it won't be able to flip as easily as it does right now. It might even end up becoming a slow mover just like what gold is right now.

I think by the time it reaches that stage, we'll really get to see how capable Bitcoin is to function as currency. Its main obstacle isn't scalability, but volatility. If that's no longer an issue, we might be getting somewhere.

we'll get there eventually, but i think it'll be quite a few years.

bitcoin's entire history is characterized by a demand-heavy market, hence the trend. high volatility will remain with us until the market reaches equilibrium. that's impossible as long as we're in this nascent stage of growth (sometimes exponential growth).

in the sense of tech adoption curves (eg like telephones, internet, etc) we're still very far from the plateau of mainstream adoption where i'd expect to find equilibrium. we're still below 10%.
4423  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitmain now requiring KYC documentation to buy hardware on: August 25, 2018, 07:12:40 PM
So Bitmain shoot their own foot by enforcing KYC now. Perhaps its time for GMO of Japan to step up with their manufacturing of their own Bitcoin mining hardware. Might be related to IPO, but what if our/your data is compromised and leaked?

that's the biggest reason i avoid KYC in this space. i only have documents on file with one exchange, and i sure as hell am not giving documents to bitmain---they were already hacked last year and had customer information compromised! (not that i'm a miner anyway)

It's in your hands to stop it. For instance, people should just stop buying Bitmain miners and make the company suffer a drastic loss in the business due to their new KYC policy.

how does KYC work for corporate clients? many large miners may not care at all.

it's up to the market. last i checked, miners from GMO and others still can't compete with bitmain. this is some additional incentive to go elsewhere, but i dunno if it's enough to make a real difference. unfortunately, people tend to sacrifice their privacy and just get on with their business as usual.
4424  Economy / Exchanges / Re: WEX.nz on: August 24, 2018, 08:57:06 PM
what is the current status of Wex?  can you withdraw BTC from there?? Do you need to pass KYC to withdraw?

im testing it right now (withdrawing 9.5034BTC), the opportunity to do arbitrage trading supposedly awesome on wex,

hopefully they are credible, i will update very soon

dang, sorry to hear that. Undecided

lesson learned: always research an exchange and be very weary if things don't appear to be running normally. exit scams and dodgy behavior from exchanges over the years has made me very careful where i deposit money (and how much i risk).

ZEC - withdrawal enabled
NVC - withdrawal enabled
PPC - withdrawal enabled
NMC- withdrawal enabled

latest (not much of an) update in the other thread...

i think that account is a fake. i'm also hearing that people are not receiving their PPC withdrawals. not sure about XMR (newly added).
4425  Economy / Speculation / Re: SEC Rejects 9 Bitcoin ETF Applications Whats Next Target of bitcoin? - 23 Aug18 on: August 23, 2018, 10:38:18 PM
And I'm sure as the investors getting smarter nowadays, they won't even bother by another ETF rejection.
I certainly hope so, but I'm afraid that common sense doesn't really apply to most of the traders here. It was clear a long time already that ETFs wouldn't be accepted by the SEC, but the market still reacts to it.

i thought we'd be inundated by delays and denials for months to come, so i'm glad the SEC went ahead and rejected 9 ETF applications in one fell swoop. like a bandaid---right off!

seems like we still have one more deadline looming though, and it's the one most people have a hard-on for: the vaneck/solidX decision on september 30th.... get ready for disappointment one more time! Cheesy

Just before the SEC postponed its Vaneck ETF decision people were talking about how the first gold backed ETF pumped its price significantly, and they blatantly assume that the exact same thing will happen to Bitcoin, which is crazy.

that's because they don't look at the context. gold had already formed a multi-year base and broken out into a bull market when the ETF was approved. it was bound to explode anyway.

Even with an approval you don't know whether or not there is any significant demand for it.

bingo---been saying that for a while. the existence of an ETF doesn't create demand for BTC.
4426  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-08-23] Inside Venezuela: No Trust in Gov, Rejecting Petro, Feeding 2,000 on: August 23, 2018, 10:04:47 PM
I hope more noobs will read this, because there are way to many comments praising Petro and Venezuelan government here. It's almost like if people don't even try to use their brain and automatically assume that everything "cryptocurrency" and "blockchain" is good and makes the world better.

i get the sense that most of those noobs are bagholding hard, massacred by the recent shitcoin apocalypse. they're desperate for any hype to save their investment, so i'm not surprised to see them praising the venezuelan government here.

it's sort of sad---reminds me of the desperation i used to see on penny stock forums back in the day. Undecided
4427  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-08-15] Is Bitcoin A “Cult”? A Former Paypal CEO Seems To Think So on: August 22, 2018, 09:10:41 PM
If they treat us a cult then what do they call to these who defends fiat and gold so much from it?

for better or worse, gold bugs are seen as a crazy cult too. here's one example: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-12-gold-bug-commandments?nopaging=1
Quote
Recently, I wrote about the predictions of one market “guru,” Peter Schiff, who might be described as a leader of the cult of gold bugs.

gold bugs are often painted as fringe dwelling lunatics, probably because they've been preaching about the collapse of fiat money long before bitcoiners came along. as with bitcoiners, fiat money proponents are incentivized to marginalize them.
4428  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-08-22] Apple Co-Founder: Crypto World “Like the Internet When it was Brand on: August 22, 2018, 08:56:41 PM
“Mathematics to me is like nature,” Woz continued in his admiration for Bitcoin. “It’s much better than human beings… I trust those things of nature more than what man makes up. Man makes up currencies, controls them, issues new US dollars every year; Bitcoin was immune to that.”

wow, he actually gets it. it was a real turning point for me when i realized what a breakthrough math-based money is. total transparency and predictability vs. the fallibility and corruption of humans.

we'll see in the coming years how resilient bitcoin is, and whether it's truly "immune" to the manipulation wozniak mentions here. after all, it only takes a hard fork. Wink
4429  Economy / Exchanges / Re: WEX.nz on: August 22, 2018, 08:46:40 AM
what is the current status of Wex?  can you withdraw BTC from there?? Do you need to pass KYC to withdraw?

I am curious as well, is USD/USDt withdrawal possible at this time?

yes, USDT withdrawal is possible. that's why it's worth 4x what "wex USD" is worth. ZEC and a couple others seem to be working (most of the time) as well, but you'll pay a hefty premium to buy them and exit.

it's looking bad. i've never had this long of a radio silence from an exchange before, with the exception of cryptsy. and we all know how that ended..... Undecided
4430  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] KRAKEN.COM - Exchange with USD EUR GBP JPY CAD BTC LTC XRP NMC XDG STR ETH on: August 22, 2018, 08:33:40 AM
from the OP:

In most US states, including California and New York, we offer no services.

is this still the case? where does kraken list the states that it services?

can anyone comment on the reliability of domestic (US) bank wires out of kraken? i'm looking for a new exchange to do light trading and occasional cashouts. but i came across this and became concerned: https://np.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/6fu1vs/fyi_your_funds_are_at_risk_if_you_are_in_the_us/
4431  Economy / Speculation / Re: $10million in 2023 possible? on: August 21, 2018, 10:10:33 PM
awesome, more uber bullish extrapolations. instead of 5 figures, we're going for 8! Shocked

if you ask me, there's no point extrapolating. even if we assume similar rates of growth in demand (based on the past), it's impossible to know how much of the bitcoin supply could come to market at any given price level. we're starting to get some rough estimations regarding the number of lost coins (or coins that are unlikely to move, like the bitfinex hack coins), but there are simply too many unknown variables.

markets are already unpredictable when you have lots of market information. here, we have very little.
4432  Economy / Speculation / Re: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 on: August 21, 2018, 09:39:57 PM
This noone was expecting $20k, not even $10k, hell not even $5k.

to be fair, there was no reason or basis to make time-based predictions like that until the market went parabolic in july/august 2017. looking at their estimates, i doubt their model could accurately account for "bubble periods" anyway.

And now we are looking at $50k predictions. This shows how quick market sentiment can change in Bitcoin. If you aren't holding any you can miss out very quickly.

that goes both ways. very few expected a bubble, but very few expected the top either. those sky-high predictions often come long after the top is in. and the losses for the bagholders add up quickly. Smiley
4433  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish again? (Back at $5500) on: August 21, 2018, 09:24:08 PM
there's obviously a real battle for the $6000s between bulls and bears. most people around here seem to assume the bottom is in, which makes me weary. i'm still refraining from trading right now. the market is still threatening a lot of weakness, and after so much downside, i'm only looking for buying/longing opportunities. i've got my fingers crossed that we start curving upwards and showing support into dips, but......i'll wait and see. Lips sealed
Bitcoin price is trading between 6000$ and 7000$ for a long time. in fact at that level the investors are not reluctant to invest their money in bitcoin at that level, they know that the current price is the lowest price for bitcoin and therefore there are very little chances that bitcoin rice will break that level very easily.

but remember, that logic goes both ways. bears are obviously not reluctant to sell down here either.

bulls are not letting price below the $5500-$6000 area. but the bears are also not letting price above any previous high. we're stuck in a pattern of lower highs. as i see it, the $6000s is still a real battle zone. price could really go either way here.

there's obviously a real battle for the $6000s between bulls and bears. most people around here seem to assume the bottom is in, which makes me weary.
We can't keep testing the $6000 mark endlessly. It will break by the next one or two attempts, especially if the decline is fueled by yet another couple of ETF rejections which people seem to go nuts on.

agreed, we can't keep testing it. the support will eventually break if it keeps getting hammered. bulls need to make a move relatively soon.
4434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Former CEO of Paypal on CNCB: "Bitcoin is going to 0" on: August 20, 2018, 09:43:35 AM
Bitcoin technically can never go to zero. You can't get something for free, that is not "sale" that is "giving".

if nobody is willing to buy (at any price), i suppose the price is zero. Smiley

However it is also impossible for bitcoin to go down like that ever because I know that I will buy all the bitcoins in the world if that happens. I know there are a lot of people that feels like me.

you say that now, but that's because there is an overwhelming faith among so many people that BTC will succeed. what if that faith were shattered? what if the historical long term uptrend breaks down, and hash rate plummets? what if BTC's popularity/usage ends up following a trajectory like early dotcom companies?
4435  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is Bitcoin Crashing? on: August 20, 2018, 09:24:52 AM
Its nothing so dramatic as crashing, its more of a slow down and decline.  People built up expectations ahead of actual results and the cart overtook the horse which is rarely sustained far down a road.

it feels like 2014, like a slow bleed. except this time, the price hasn't collapsed. it just stays in a tight range.

What we're doing right this moment is sideways, lots of it.  I see a downtrend, then the market is shaking itself off like a dog wet from the rain, up down quite violently but ultimately we do not move just sideways.    Im not yet decided if its bullish exactly but I will say its not especially negative for a week or so now.

same feeling here. like i've been saying, this kind of structure is pretty unpredictable. the last few months could be an accumulation zone, or it could be a drawn out bear flag. i'm flat here, no longs or shorts, and leaning slightly bullish. but i need some confirmation.
4436  Economy / Speculation / Re: When do goldbugs give up? on: August 19, 2018, 07:49:11 PM
well said. the point here is about value storage. gold may not rise nearly as much as bitcoin over time (though the 2001-2011 run was pretty magnificent). but there are other considerations. gold has a history of thousands of years; bitcoin, less than 10. that's a huge difference in risk profile.

that's why it makes sense for wealthy people to dump only a small amount into bitcoin. they need to hedge wisely, not strike it rich.
That's goldbug propaganda as far as I'm concerned.  I read that same statement over and over on coinflation's articles, and it doesn't really mean anything.  It doesn't make a lick of difference when gold has been in a bear market for years now.

lol, bear market for years? that same exact logic applied to bitcoin in late 2015/early 2016. gold literally just ended its biggest bubble in history in 2011 (10 years of hyper bull), what would you expect? immediate explosion into another bubble!? Cheesy

and how is it propaganda? it's just history. gold is regarded by society as a valuable commodity---that's a simple fact with historical backing. the point was about the difference in risk profile: bitcoin's incentives, consensus methods and robustness are simply not time-tested, certainly not when compared to longstanding everyday commodities with sizeable demand over hundreds or thousands of years.

i'm not a goldbug, btw. i very much prefer bitcoin. just talking about risk...... bitcoin is a brand new kind of asset, untested in many ways. it can't just spring up overnight and immediately be considered a traditional investment/hedging asset. it should be considered very high risk/high reward.
4437  Economy / Speculation / Re: Former CEO of Paypal on CNCB: "Bitcoin is going to 0" on: August 19, 2018, 07:29:10 PM
Also, we need these skeptics to be around. I'm in the mood for some bearish trash talk after how we have been flooded for months with $100,000 before this or that time nonsense.

seriously. i've had quite enough of these "$25k or $50k by end of year" calls. we've been so saturated with that sort of hyper bullish sentiment, it's obvious why the market has been so stagnant.

we need the bears to feel confident before the tide can really turn. bears were very confident in 2015 near the bottom (i was one of them Tongue)
4438  Economy / Speculation / Re: When do goldbugs give up? on: August 18, 2018, 10:32:03 PM
Gold always was and always will be the ultimate store of wealth, you just have to ignore short term price noise. 

well said. the point here is about value storage. gold may not rise nearly as much as bitcoin over time (though the 2001-2011 run was pretty magnificent). but there are other considerations. gold has a history of thousands of years; bitcoin, less than 10. that's a huge difference in risk profile.

that's why it makes sense for wealthy people to dump only a small amount into bitcoin. they need to hedge wisely, not strike it rich.
4439  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What happens when the price of Bitcoin falls below the cost of mining? on: August 16, 2018, 11:24:00 PM
But, the vitality of Bitcoin is maintained by the continuous mining of Bitcoin. On an average these mining costs are USD 3000 to 3500 approximately. So, what happens when Bitcoin falls to that level?

nonsense. if anything the cost of mining is about $6000 which has been calculated by silly speculators. but in reality cost of mining will always remain near bitcoin's current price because that is how mining and difficulty works.
if price goes up there will be more miners, more hashrate, higher difficulty, less profit, "higher cost of mining". and if price go es down it will be the opposite.

that's why these theories about mining cost are so silly. if difficulty goes up too fast, the more marginal miners will only mine at a loss for so long before shutting down. then difficulty adjusts downwards. it doesn't matter what it costs to mine BTC, because it can always cost less (or more).

if a miner is mining at a loss, why wouldn't they shut down? they can buy BTC instead wasting money on electricity, if they're so bullish.
4440  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish again? (Back at $5500) on: August 16, 2018, 11:11:54 PM
there's obviously a real battle for the $6000s between bulls and bears. most people around here seem to assume the bottom is in, which makes me weary. i'm still refraining from trading right now. the market is still threatening a lot of weakness, and after so much downside, i'm only looking for buying/longing opportunities. i've got my fingers crossed that we start curving upwards and showing support into dips, but......i'll wait and see. Lips sealed
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