Can he give us a timeframe? If he said that in 2011 right after the bubble he'd have been spot on.  But without a time frame, it's like saying "price will go down, then up." Always correct. My two year old son said that bitcoin price is going to stagnate and decline for the next few weeks, with gains coming about a month from now. I am paraphrasing. His predictions have all been correct so far, so it's something to keep in mind for those considering buying or selling bitcoin. Wait a few weeks to buy.
Also, has anyone considered using oracle octopuses to determine bitcoin price moves?
Not bad. |
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A little exaggerated here. Maybe not 2 da moon, but an average growth is there. Google is only one indicator. The uptick is more like that second glance you need to get before you get laid.
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edit: if you really want to speculate and are willing buy and hold, i would go for xrp lottery tickets.
FTFY |
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2016 should be interesting yr. for btc. if / when gox gets the withdrawal situation fixed we'll see how much of a spike we get
What situation is that? |
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Where is the suckers rally this time, it's been like 3 days and we haven't bounced yet.  The three-day-bounce is about due one way or another. The resistance to the plunge is good though. Within three more days we should see the upswing come back when the sellers feel more secure. |
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As an amateur economist, I am curious to understand the purely fundamental indicators people use to predict market futures. I will list a few of my own observations and would like input on them and add any specific tools you may use.
Sentimentality:
There seems to momentum caused by hype and emotion to direct the price in a general direction for awhile.
Extreme volatility tends to cause sharp spikes upward or downward. Sharpness depends on market depth of the reporting exchange.
Superstition:
Lucky numbers from numerology seem frequent. Seven is popular, thirteen is avoided.
Rule of thirds (a subset of superstition):
33, 66, 133, 166, 233, 266 etc. These numbers seem to grounding points for market sentimentality. Whether price stays above or below one of these points tends to predict the future direction.
Polygons:
There seems to be some validity to the charts used to predict the range of market futures. These "channels" tend to be subject to loose interpretation with various methodologies. Some use rectangles, some use triangles, some use curves. etc. Statistically, any of them are valid if used consistently. There usefulness is somewhat oversimplified because there are external influences on markets.
Search engine hits:
Google hits on terms like "bitcoin" tend to predict sentimentality.
News stories tend to appear in waves. Usually one story will be repeated by several news feeds and bloggers. One bad story can negate the effect of ten good stories.
FUDsters and Trolls:
The appearance of negativity comes in waves in the Bitcoin discussion communities and blogs. Usually, these are indications that good things are happening and the party-poopers want some attention. Their appearance means something already happened. If they bother you, it means you missed something important.
Arbitrage:
Emerging markets in other exchanges and cryptocurrencies may have a minor effect on Bitcoin price. Pairing Bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies introduces instability due to their highly speculative nature. The more pairs a coin has, the stronger its influence becomes.
I hope these help. Please add any more you think will help people understand this mono-market.
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Doesn't matter whether its up or down in the future, its extreme fluctuations are pretty much ruining its chances of becoming a widely used currency.
Its starting to prove too much currency risk for merchants to adopt.
In the short term that is true. Bitcoin speculators have a psychological problem. They believe in the technology, but not in mankind's ability to be smart enough to use it. In other words, they have faith in Bitcoin, but not in people. They are jaded by corrupt politicians. However, there are technological solutions to that as well. Statistics is used to solve psychological problems. Many people believe that we exist in a free market where economics is our tool. They use some statistics to predict patterns. I don't think Bitcoin is broad enough to apply economic theory. Bitcoin is a personal choice. It is our money. Money is very dear to us in a personal way (present company excepted, of course). As such, Bitcoin requires statistics of how we feel about it. We need more information than the traded price on a few exchanges. We need to know what each and every transaction is (or random samples are) valued at, not just those on the exchanges. Then applying statistics, we can evaluate the real price discovery. This may be difficult to do, but there are folks working on decentralized exchanges which may be able to address this issue. Until then, enjoy the volatility. |
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Mt Gox is the primary source of Bitcoin price/value reporting. There are better ways of distributing the Bitcoin price other than an API. Bitcoin is a decentralized and distributed system based on math. That solution would also serve the exchange price well.
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Shhh. Don't tell them not to panic. That way you get more cheap coins.
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Yes, and those that bought and held in those days did very well. |
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They will be. One day soon Bitcoin will be an *overnight* new sensation that nobody has heard of. Chances are, they will use coloredcoins or some variation thereof to keep them proprietary to their system. Because they won't use bitcoins directly, but only the Bitcoin network, they can call them SonyCoins or XBcoins or some such brand name.
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I'm waiting for ToxieCoin for the Troma fans out there.  |
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Buy time starts now.  Yeah soon. It will drop more because folks call this the falling knife and they expect it to fall. Their greed may cause them to lose the opportunity of the big correction upward. |
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In the next few day's, we'll be in the $50's, and watch it keep going... droooooop!
Nah, we'll see a March-April size spike up before 50. Over 100 soon. |
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I think we've hit bottom here for awhile at 66.6  |
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The pattern for awhile is that during American daytime hours there is fiat profit-taking and during the Eurasian daytime hours there are long-term buyers and holders that raise the price. The cycle will continue until the Eurasian markets hold most of the bitcoins and demand much higher prices. Western short-term vs Eastern long-term mentalities will create the next bubble.
"Western short-term vs Eastern long-term mentalities" where did you pick that seriously ... money is money. Whatever it's east or west .. For example: In the East Au is gold. In the West GLD is gold. |
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The pattern for awhile is that during American daytime hours there is fiat profit-taking and during the Eurasian daytime hours there are long-term buyers and holders that raise the price. The cycle will continue until the Eurasian markets hold most of the bitcoins and demand much higher prices. Western short-term vs Eastern long-term mentalities will create the next bubble.
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Markets are irrational, therefore you should stop looking at charts and make decisions based only on the fundamentals (which are mostly positive last time).
Charts are self-fulfilling prophesy. It depends on how many magical-thinkers are in the Bitcoin community. If there are a lot, then prepare for their irrational prognostications, but watch for evidence of real-world causatives. |
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Ripple itself probably is a nice trading system <snip>
Maybe if it was open sourced. So far it is pure vaporware and smells like Ponzi tulips. |
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