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4441  Economy / Speculation / Re: Big pop up again on: August 16, 2018, 11:06:53 PM
Looking at how the price moved this year, i think there's logic behind what you said dude and probably that's why all these speculations indicating that we'll bottom out at 4 or 3k isn't that valid. Whales and high holders have the say in this kind if market.

only to an extent. whales and large miners can withhold coins from the market, but nobody has this market cornered. and as the years go by, coins become more and more distributed. something like 5-10% of americans now own crypto. so the whales of yester-years really aren't as important anymore.

what matters most is all the supply from bagholders from 2017 (including institutions like novagratz' fund etc) and whether or not organic demand can outweigh that.
4442  Economy / Speculation / Re: Big pop up again on: August 14, 2018, 07:54:15 PM
the bear market ended a while ago. this is just a residual effect and some people wishing it to continue some of them have the power to make it continue so they are dumping to push it down.

its waaaaay too early to say. how are you so confident the bear is done?

in any market, this whole $6000-$12000 trading range could be a bearish consolidation. i'd love to see things turn around, but by all trend-reading techniques i know, this is still a bear market. break above $8500 (higher high) and we can start believing otherwise.
4443  Economy / Speculation / Re: Big pop up again on: August 13, 2018, 11:07:15 PM
But as a trader, you perform technical analysis, and if you apply TA, I don't really see $6k anymore as a bottom, unless you believe in what, a quintuple bottom at this point? I mean we were discussing a triple bottom a month ago, now it has bounced back, so quadruple bottom is at play if it keeps going up.

that's how i felt about the price action in 2015. we kept hammering the $200 area (sometimes wicking below for a short time) and bouncing back. for me, that's usually a sign that support will fail and we should be ready for lower levels.

but amazingly, the level held. and if you look at the bitstamp chart and cut off the wicks, it looks like a quadruple bottom.

honestly, you never know with BTC. sometimes we find unicorns on the charts here. Wink

So out of any TA, there must be a fundamental reason for this. The only fundamental analysis I can do towards this solid $6k resistance is the cost-of-mining-1-bitcoin theory, which true or not, becomes a self fulfilling prophecy at this point.

what about a simpler explanation: strong demand exhausts supply. demand from investors. it doesn't matter who they are or why they're buying, but that's more believable to me than miners perpetually propping up the price. Cheesy
4444  Economy / Speculation / Re: If bull runs happens, how much BTC dominance will be at peak? on: August 13, 2018, 10:58:32 PM
Any Bitcoin bull run will relatively shortly be followed by an alt bull run so the peak dominance will probably come at the point of maximum gloom for BTC and alts.

yeah, or vice versa. alts had their run before BTC in 2017.

these things work in cycles (the money flow between alts and BTC). it happens time and time again. one stays stagnant, the other skyrockets, then profits starts flowing into the laggard.

There's sooooooo much shit out there that needs purging predicting the percentage is going to be really hard but I don't think the 80% plus predictions are very realistic. My pure guess is 65-70% and then it'll works its way back down.

i think it's just impossible to tell right now. maybe when a bull run starts and we see what the market looks like.

the whole idea of market caps in crypto and BTC dominance, especially considering the proliferation of altcoins and tokens---it's all really fuzzy and arbitrary.
4445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does positive news have any impact in bitcoin price on: August 12, 2018, 09:23:22 PM
Positive news does have an impact on prices. Even in bear markets, in my opinion.

However, the impact that positive news has on prices are probably significantly reduced in bear market scenarios simply because of the psychological nature of bearish sentiment circulating around the market. A single piece of news indicating that institutional investors may be interested in something bitcoin related simply isn't enough to spark major increases in prices in a bear market.

This can be observed right now, in this exact bear market. Prices aren't moving despite multiple news coverages that would be considered to be extremely positive within a bull market.

exactly. that's the key that most people don't understand: news is secondary or tertiary to actual market sentiment and overall commitment of traders. that's why good news in bear markets often causes little short squeezes that are just sold into by underwater investors. and then the bleed continues.

i've seen so many people ask, "why isn't price going up? there's so much good news!" and IMO the answer is, "that should actually inform you that we're in a corrective/bear market. so you should expect price to go down, or sideways at best, until the correction is over."
4446  Economy / Speculation / Re: Big pop up again on: August 11, 2018, 11:20:06 PM
As we approached sub $6k and actually hit $5.9k... we see another huge pump to $6400. Impressive, a $500 dollar move up just like that, on a single candle. Someone bought a pretty decent amount of coins.

that dump the other day from $7100s to $6100s was more impressive though. Tongue

it's bitcoin, both the pumps and the dumps are always impressive!

The theory of how that $5k-6k price range is the diamond solid ground in which miners will never let bitcoin go below is shaping up.

i hope you're right, as i find range markets and bull markets easier to trade (especially after we've already fallen 70% from the top). but i'm skeptical that miners have endless capital to prevent liquidating forever. we need real demand to turn things around.
4447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: August 11, 2018, 09:58:48 PM
he's been wrong on all his predictions lately, i wont be surprised if we break 6000 and go towards 5K before rebounding a little and then slowly crash towards 2600

didnt see your edit, yeah too optimistic for me too, the get quick rich people and all the retail investors have to be burned before we switch to a bull market, now the market is just exhausting their nerves, we havent entered the despair phase where they are wondering if it will ever come back up again

Aye. I'm interested in what he has to say but I think his magic touch has wafted away for now. We still haven't reached the truly sweat inducing price, let alone the indifference phase. It depends on whether this is a lull that picks up towards the end of the year or a continued descent.

he's still been pretty solid on the bigger picture. i think he (rightfully) has become less and less precise because this market trades much choppier than in the old days---it's super algo-heavy now. it's simply less predictable than it used to be. so as a trader, i fade less and less, and i ride trends more and more.

we got a nice short squeeze today off $6k. hopefully a sign that he's right about $6k being on the low end of an accumulation range.
4448  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is Bitcoin Crashing? on: August 10, 2018, 11:45:15 PM
~snip

It's just normal profit-taking. People are trading within a range - so when it gets to $6000 - $6300, it encounters a lot of buy orders. When it nears $8000 a lot of sell orders kick in.

As long as we don't dip below $6000 we're good. If we do dip below $6000 for more than a day, then we're in bear market territory.

What profit-taking is there selling at the almost lowest price for bitcoin this year?  Grin
Profit taking happens at ATH, at ATL it is called cutting losses.

no, not at all. BTC has spent the vast majority of its trading history below this price level. this is not an ATL, lol!

anyone who is sitting on gains for the past 9 years has plenty of incentive to lock in some profits, once they realize the current bubble cycle is over and price could stay bearish for quite some time.

personally, i'm still hoping that $5000s is the bottom of the range, but it looks pretty ugly. i won't be surprised to see $3000 or lower.
4449  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Suing Exchanges for Forks on: August 10, 2018, 10:59:48 PM
The exchanges agreed to hold custody of your BTC and your BTC only. Any forks that may occur are a different matter

I don't think this argument should hold much to water your position, although you made and had a soft landing of your post in the end. Thus, talking about forking and holding of the coin itself, I think it depends on the exchange because I noticed that certain exchanges especially, coinexchange does release fork coins.

Also, I think that should even be the case naturally,  that exchanges should also have it as a duty to deal with the properties of the coin as if it were the coin directly; that is ,every proceeds of the coin accruing from the coin.

obviously, this depends on jurisdiction. but when it comes to the courts, usually we're looking for what's reasonable. so let's think about that:

i could generate a million forks of BTC right now (that nobody uses, of course). is it reasonable to assume that an exchange is obligated to download all my million forked clients and send me my forked coins?

of course not! Cheesy

so i think it has to boil down to whether there is actual demand for a fork, and whether the fork is even active at all. either way, i'd be very curious to see arguments heard and court decision issued where the exchange explicitly says in its terms that it won't pay out forked coins.
4450  Economy / Speculation / Re: ETF postponed creates another dip on: August 09, 2018, 04:20:38 PM
really? it wouldn't be outside the realm of normal. that's roughly the equivalent of the 2011 bubble pop. that would probably be the worst case scenario, but i wouldn't rule it out!
Just because something can happen doesn't mean it will happen. If that's your way of looking at things, we shouldn't discard the possibility of falling back below $100 either, or even below $10.

all i said is "i wouldn't rule it out" because you called people delusional for thinking we could see a 94% drop from the top. we literally only have a handful of bubbles to study, and one of them dropped 94% from the top!

you make it sound like dropping another > 10x or > 100x from there is just as likely. why? Roll Eyes

Back in 2013 we were initially hovering around $15 and within the same year we touched $1100. The long term correction took the price back down to around $150 in 2015. It didn't fall back to its starting point and it won't this time.

when it comes to markets, most people are wrong most of the time in their trades and predictions. i don't think we're going back to $1000, but i need to remain open to all realistic scenarios and trade accordingly. i became much more successful as a trader when i stopped having the attitude that "x won't happen" or "y can't happen." that mentality will get you killed in the markets because it prevents you from acting until the "unthinkable" has already occurred.
4451  Economy / Speculation / Re: What happened to this 'easy 10k'? on: August 08, 2018, 09:44:41 PM
I was absolutely sure that Bitcoin would see $3000 in this bear cycle when it hit the $6000 mark, but now I even doubt that. The $5500-6500 region has proven to be a major support, having been tested multiple times now. It may go further down, but after the price bottomed we should go up again into that region again pretty fast.

i'm not sure of anything right now, and i've stepped away from trading until there is a clear trend or range. if the market can break above $8500, then i'd be more confident in a long sideways accumulation period. i definitely think $3000 is still a possibility (maybe further). we've spent quite a long time in this $6k-$9k range = lots of new bagholders if the bottom falls out again.
4452  Economy / Speculation / Re: ETF postponed creates another dip on: August 08, 2018, 09:36:33 PM
it didn't really "create" another dip. that dip was likely coming anyway. this is a bear market until proven otherwise---and it doesn't help that sentiment is so bullish. Wink

some people said Bitcoin price will go to 1000 if etf refused , that will be a big crach of the market and investors confident
The ETF isn't that important. At worst we might be testing newer lows between $5000 and $6000 but nothing more than that. If people say they think the price will fall to $1000 they are delusional.

really? it wouldn't be outside the realm of normal. that's roughly the equivalent of the 2011 bubble pop. that would probably be the worst case scenario, but i wouldn't rule it out!
4453  Economy / Speculation / Re: BAKKT: Road to $100,000+ starts in november? on: August 08, 2018, 09:28:22 PM
I'm interested in how many of these grand plans will survive a lengthy period of nothingness and gloom.

Circle said they were throwing in Bitcoin retail due to low interest in 2016.

https://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-industry-circle-bitcoin-shift-stop-payments/

Funnily enough that wasn't too long before things really started to move. I wonder how much profit they turned down there.

yeah i remember laughing pretty hard over the timing of circle's exit back then. also funny to see them buying poloniex right when the bubble popped. these companies get caught up in the hype and exuberance just like us regular folk. Smiley

the better capitalized companies will weather the storm; others, less so.

Operations like this could be eating millions per week or month with little prospect of a return on the horizon. It's also impossible to predict when things go mad again.

i suspect these guys are in it for the long term. they say the company has been in planning for 14 months. with a november launch date, at least they've given themselves ~ a year since the bubble popped.

like you say, it's impossible to predict. it's possible (though unlikely perhaps) that we could have a situation like summer 2013 too.
4454  Economy / Speculation / Re: BAKKT: Road to $100,000+ starts in november? on: August 07, 2018, 09:39:49 PM
Bakkt is a trojan horse for so many reasons:
1. paper over "real" btc
2. control over which accounts/funds transact and which don't
3. introducing middleman (trusted party) that is expressly rejected by the bitcoin protocol

etc, etc

I don't give a s-t about any perceived liquidity "positives".
Negatives make it a stillbirth.

finally, an opinion i can get behind!

i really wish bitcoiners with dollar signs in their eyes would stop glorifying third party custodians and acting like paper "backed" by BTC is a good thing for anybody. even once we get past the issue of trust, paper markets (because of their heavy volume) can also potentially be used to manipulate the market. just ask gold traders. Tongue
4455  Economy / Speculation / Re: BAKKT: Road to $100,000+ starts in november? on: August 06, 2018, 05:00:27 PM
This is big, very big, similar to an ETF approved. You will be able to buy Bitcoin easily, all the computer illiterate boomers that just can't get their heads around downloading a wallet and securing the coins, will be able to get Bitcoin exposure. And they seem to be serious: No shitcoins, only Bitcoin.

meh, this sounds like more empty hype (just like the ETFs). "if you build it, they will come!"

you assume there is all this latent demand for bitcoin exposure that is waiting on the sidelines---why? it's not how the human mind (and therefore markets) work. people and institutions who want bitcoin exposure because of its astronomical gains don't say to themselves, "no problem, i'll just wait 2 years or 6 years for the right derivative security product to be approved by the SEC!" lol. and there isn't much volume in the regulated swaps and futures markets. what makes this so different?

also, it's not all good news. like you said, all this latent demand you think exists is from people who don't understand the point of BTC anyway. we like to think people understand the difference between "real assets" and "paper assets" but most don't. and if there is so much latent demand for paper bitcoins, as you suggest, that opens big opportunities for spot market manipulation, just like the gold markets: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4826941.msg43553439#msg43553439
4456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does positive news have any impact in bitcoin price on: August 06, 2018, 04:11:44 PM
I have been observing a trend from last year bitcoin price movements to this year movement.
 I have observed how we're getting so much positive news and adoption about bitcoin this year, but still the prices refuse to go up. If this was last year a single positive news will have pumps the prices by at least 10% or more.
Its that positive news don't longer have any effect on the price movement or is their any manipulation going on.

bear markets are caused by excessive supply and low demand, not a lack of good news lol.

i've been saying this for a long time: good news will never reverse a bear market. at best, it's a catalyst for a short squeeze.

bad news will never reverse a bull market, either. just think of the silk road bust in 2013, or the btc-e bust in 2017. the people still clinging to the notion that "the 2014 bear market was caused by mt gox" don't know how to read charts and don't understand market cycles (wyckoff, elliot, etc).
4457  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bakkt - NYSE/ICE - will it lead to paper hell? on: August 05, 2018, 10:43:27 PM
it's inevitable. the foundation is being built as we speak, and there's really no way around it. the banksters have made their choice. they want a piece and they're making their move.

it's always so funny to me (and sad) to see bitcoiners cheering on the institutionalization and financialization of BTC. the same people that cry about fiat money printing want paper markets for BTC, and they want it badly too! because these securities/derivatives---they're all "fully backed." hahaha! too funny......

as long as the public understands the difference between real bitcoins and paper bitcoins, then the spot market should reign supreme (meaning the banksters shouldn't be able to manipulate the market too heavily).

now, with that in mind: does the public understand the difference between real gold and paper gold?
4458  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nobody is using crypto's to pay anymore on: August 05, 2018, 10:27:51 PM
Bitpay is a way of converting crypto into dollars before then passing it onto the vendor.  In theory that vendor is accepting the dollars and its Bitpay who handles the crypto itself, not exactly a crypto transaction.  Hopefully they are also monitoring other methods of exchanging value not just ones that register in FIAT because that'd be quite ironic to skip transactions purely done in crypto

Bitpay was (is?) the largest payment processor for Bitcoin. They are seriously hurting Bitcoins usage as a means of payment though. They started mandating that BIP70 is used for payments. This put a bad taste in many peoples mouth and caused many users to stop using Bitpay altogether. I'm unsure why they mandated BIP70 for payments, but it just overcomplicated things. I am certain that this has to do with the drop in commerce, and is what skewed the results of this "study". Maybe it's also in part to the fact that Bitcoin has been in a slump since 2017. A lot of people are likely hodling because of the general perception that we will be entering another bull market shortly, and buying something would result in a net loss in the short term.

This is yet another example of a clickbait headline by Bloomberg that misrepresents Bitcoin to make it look like we're all heading for a crash and it's not worth investing in. Bitpay, like mentioned above, is just a service, not the coin itself. So there was a shitty service that charged too much money for its transactions that people aren't using anymore and... no one is using Bitcoin anymore! Great conclusion Bloomberg!

interesting points here! they became difficult to use for some (bip70), and expensive to use for others. i'd love to see a survey among those who've used bitpay and their feelings about the "network fees" and mandated bip70 usage. if less and less people are using bitpay, there could be other reasons for it too.

i've recently used a couple large merchants who didn't use bitpay (they used coingate and coinpayments). so bitpay is the biggest game in town by far, but i'm not convinced they own the market either. i think maybe their market share is even falling.
4459  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nobody is using crypto's to pay anymore on: August 04, 2018, 06:41:16 PM
what makes you think that's what most people do? on the contrary, i think most people sell the bottom and/or buy the top. they get greedy when price is rising and don't want to sell. that's why the old warren buffet saying always applies. Smiley

that is the logical move for anyone who is not a hardcore trader who cares only about making money. of course there is the buy high sell low situation but that doesn't mean people aren't going to spend 0.001-0.01BTC of what they have.

that's true. i remember first getting into bitcoin to play poker on sealswithclubs back in 2012. i forgot about it, then when i saw the april 2013 bubble, i immediately bought amazon gcs with all my coins. then the price kept going up and i got hooked to the markets....

also and mostly i am talking based on BitPay stats. for example this chart from 2 years ago was the best thing i can show you. it maps number of processed transactions by BitPay (the bars) versus the price (the line). it shows an increase number of them during the ATH of 2013 and a big drop after price came down and then slow growth afterwards

good point. however, we should also note that total network transactions were strongly trending upwards through the april 2013 bubble, then sharply dropped from may-june 2013. we see an even more pronounced increase in total network activity from august-december 2017, during the last bubble: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&daysAverageString=7

this tells me there is a correlation between price bubbles and network activity---it's not just that more people are spending via bitpay. if there is an increase an network activity, we should expect some ~proportionate increase in bitpay activity as well.
4460  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nobody is using crypto's to pay anymore on: August 03, 2018, 10:49:17 PM
people have been complaining about it ever since they mandated BIP70 so there are posts on their blogs about it which you can read https://blog.bitpay.com/bitpay-and-payment-protocol/ it may not make complete sense though. and i have heard once before that someone said it is done in order to make it near impossible for those using TOR to be able to use Bitpay! don't know how true this is though!

interesting, thanks for that. i've never been able to figure out why mandating BIP70 would be a good move for them (unless it's true that people screw up the address/amount and so they want to avoid dealing with that).

people tend to spend their bitcoins when they have risen not when it is going to rise. it is the same as selling, you don't want to sell at the bottom, you sell on top.

what makes you think that's what most people do? on the contrary, i think most people sell the bottom and/or buy the top. they get greedy when price is rising and don't want to sell. that's why the old warren buffet saying always applies. Smiley
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