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4441  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2019, 03:30:06 AM
BTC did not "like" the GOT ending, or so it seems, lol.
All eyes on Tuesday.

I always "marveled" at Wallstreet's ability to plunge the asset a day or two before the good news and pump it before bad.
So many examples. I remember one in particular.
In 2003, rumors were spreading that AAPL is about to buy Disney and this depressed AAPL stock.
Large blocks were purchased by people in the know, apparently (check the volume), and a few days later AAPL announced iTunes and the stock went on a multi-year tear.
4442  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CBS '60 Minutes' 5/19/19 on Bitcoin. Will it cause FOMO or FUD? (Take the Poll!) on: May 20, 2019, 02:49:42 AM
The second they mention anything about fiat price, I am turning it off.
What a waste of time. CBS you owe me 16 time coins.

Charlie you are not the Moses of bitcoin you are the false prophet who did it for self profit.

Read the first sentence of the white paper, you changed bitcoin into fiat, contrary to the whole vision.



nice, albeit small, yacht, though  Wink.
4443  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2019, 02:46:47 AM
I think that conversing about alts distracts (for the most part) from bitcoin, which is the topic here.
Very infrequently it might be OK just to contrast and/or compare.
Not every other post, please.
4444  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CBS '60 Minutes' 5/19/19 on Bitcoin. Will it cause FOMO or FUD? (Take the Poll!) on: May 20, 2019, 12:15:06 AM
I also vote for : "meh"
They did not explain it properly.
Besides, they tried to say that $5 bill is also only supported by "faith", but any noicoiner would just sigh in disbelief:
"I have $5 bucks right here and it is real, I can just get a big mac by spending it, duh!"
Not sure why the knowledge about btc spreads so slowly.
4445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 19, 2019, 10:42:26 PM
A wild theory: btc is being held below 8K so Van Eck ETF would be slightly below $200000/share once approved.
This would allow a nice appreciation from the get go to exceed the stock market price flagship (BRK-A) at $306355.
Nah...I don't really believe this, but I do think that the approval or move toward approval is 50:50 this time around (at least definitely higher than 10:90).

I think that it is higher than 10:90 too, but 50:50?  Do you really believe that is the approval likelihood?  And if a large number of others believe that the probability that the odds, this time, are 50:50, then that would give further explanation to BTC's current bullish posture... Personally, I don't believe that people (let's say "smart money") believes that an ETF has anywhere near 50:50 odds of approval...,, even if they believe the odds are becoming higher than 10:90.

Some unknown, but substantial probability, hence we popped 1000 points straight up as we approach the date.
If not, i can see us losing 500-800 points easily.
I wouldn't suggest going 100X or even 5X in any direction, lol.
4446  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 19, 2019, 05:16:21 PM
A wild theory: btc is being held below 8K so Van Eck ETF would be slightly below $200000/share once approved.
This would allow a nice appreciation from the get go to exceed the stock market price flagship (BRK-A) at $306355.
Nah...I don't really believe this, but I do think that the approval or move toward approval is 50:50 this time around (at least definitely higher than 10:90).
4447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2019, 11:42:25 PM
kudos to bitcoin,
it made the last few years still
more interesting
4448  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2019, 10:30:41 PM
A ranch for an OG bitcoiner in 2030-2035 (with btc, hopefully, at 7 figures current $ values);

https://www.landsofamerica.com/property/40138-acres-in-Val-Verde-County-Texas/5160408

Low, low $27 mil for a 40 thou acre ranch. This looks almost like a small country.
4449  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2019, 09:30:41 PM
I am sorry, but the unfortunate conclusion is that BTC markets are still shitty (which is true at least for bitstamp).
IMHO, crypto markets need to link up and distribute liquidity (split the order routing automatically into multiple exchanges in a situation like this).

Example: $35 mil order of a $143.5 bil asset is just 0.024% of the asset value.
It is the same as if someone would place a sell order of $211 mil in AAPL stock.
Do you think that AAPL would go down 24% as a result?
Of course, not.
4450  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2019, 08:35:05 PM
F*** b00ze is talking

You and me both, buddy.

Crazy weather here. Tornado Warning in effect until 5pm or so, but I think the worst is behind us.

Thinking of eating 1g of mushrooms and see how that hits me for the evening.

Life is good.

A tornado could take me out in the next 15 minutes, and I would die a happy man.

Hodl.

EDIT: Not sure if Mushrooms + Beer is a good combo, so considering holding off to tomorrow

Hang it there, pal.
Sounds lame, but I think that told you before that Dallas has tornadoes, strangely enough.
Houston have hurricanes and tropical storms.
In Texas, Austin is optimal since it has a river, hills, less humidity, no hurricanes and younger population.
RE prices are rising, but still ridiculously cheap by Cali measures.
My choices for later (maybe when retired): Oregon, Vancouver, Colorado, Austin and Canary Islands, not necessarily in that order.
4451  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2019, 08:18:53 PM
Quote
Bitstamp Starts Investigation After Large BTC Sell Leads to $250 Mln Liquidated on BitMEX

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitstamp-starts-investigation-after-large-btc-sell-leads-to-250-mln-liquidated-on-bitmex

They need to investigate themselves as to why they accept a limit sell order 2000 points below the market price.
That kind of order (not a market sell) should be simply rejected by the trading system (as an error).


It sounds suspiciously like you are suggesting something like curbs or circuit breakers be put in place. Is that really the direction we want to go?


No, not curbs, but if someone fat fingered $6200 limit price sell when market is at $8200, such order is typically automatically rejected on all respectable exchanges (I am not talking only about crypto).
That is not a curb of any sort. I have no problem with that order if it was a market order and it just went down because of low liquidity.
BTW, coinbase pro would not even accept a limit buy order at the ask price or above it. Same (in reverse aka below bid) with a sale, I assume.
4452  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2019, 07:17:40 PM
Quote
Bitstamp Starts Investigation After Large BTC Sell Leads to $250 Mln Liquidated on BitMEX

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitstamp-starts-investigation-after-large-btc-sell-leads-to-250-mln-liquidated-on-bitmex

They need to investigate themselves as to why they accept a limit sell order 2000 points below the market price.
That kind of order (not a market sell) should be simply rejected by the trading system (as an error).
4453  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 18, 2019, 06:58:58 PM
Bob started in 2011?  Years earlier.  

FWIW, started GPU-mining in June 2011.

Solo CPU-mined a few entire blocks, as curiosities, about six months prior to that.

Wow. No need for ASIC mining, then, LOL.
The only time this (full blocks mining solo) was possible later on was in eth in late 2015-early 2016.
Now Bob mines Grin (self-described).
However, Grin already accumulates slowly, though, and is inherently dilutive, so I am also doing it just for fun, no chance to make bank there.

I many ways, early btc/eth mining/buying was like venture capital investment. Some dude put in 100K in early Google and ended up with more than 1 bil worth of stock.
Blocks of 50 BTC at 10c were more like a computer game, probably, but it certainly pays to be a visionary when something formidable (like BTC or Google) materializes later on.
Kudos.
4454  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 17, 2019, 09:50:42 PM
Bitcoin continues to be too volatile due to low liquidity and too much leverage.
I don't see a need for the 100X leverage, but it is up to Mister Market to put a possible end to that.

VanEck-don't really care much.
Each share would be $178K (25 BTC) if it is approved. Not enough "granularity".

It's more likely to re-test 6200 than to go up short term, IMHO.
Not pleased.

RE whale: maybe it was Kobayashi again? Not likely, though.
4455  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2019, 07:14:37 PM

His other scenarios (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg51061990#msg51061990) are quite reasonable, but the one above is a bit hard to believe even as a possibility.
Albeit, who knows.
4456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2019, 07:03:11 PM

kawabangaaa!
4457  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2019, 07:02:06 PM
An OG with 50k coins will have more power than most countries do now.
~150 of them will have half the world's wealth.
By far the most people will not have any money at all.
Bitcoin will bring about a new feudal technocracy.
But first, complete chaos.

That very well may be, but how exactly would you exert that wealth without spending precious bitcoin and thereby, reducing your bitcoin stash?
Bitcoin lending? Why would some lend a deflationary asset? Borrowing cash against your btc stash? That can turn ugly at 80% drawdown.
Bitcoin interest-a ridiculous idea that is not even practical without someone rehypothicating bitcoin, which should be a bad habit.
I am close to 100% certain that blockFi will kick the bucket at one point or another.
You could do lending  crypto to crypto with a smart contract with assets put on the line as collateral but of course this would need to be all cleared by the government as binding before anyone would risk it.

Yes, my point is that you cannot do anything without spending or somehow lending it out, so OGs will have difficulty influencing much, unless some secondary markets develop.
They could buy stock in Volkswagen as they own Lamborghini and that shits going to spike. That might be a safe bet actually 😉

LOL..so that 2008 superspike in Volkswagen stock was maybe a premonition of things to come? JK
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen/short-sellers-make-vw-the-worlds-priciest-firm-idUSTRE49R3I920081028


bitcoin was the second time in my life that i tried to invest in something. first time was ... well... the dotcom bubble. i had $10k to invest, went to my bank and told i want to invest in tech companies. my banker gave me a list of stocks he would recommend. i invested $9k in internet stocks and told him i want to put $1k in something as far away from internet stocks as possible. he did not like that idea and tried to talk me out of it. i insisted and picked volkswagen. wasn´t a hot stock at that time, the banker shook his head.
a few days later the dot com bubble bursts and within just a few days my portfolio went down from $10k to $1k (the VW shares did not move a bit), all tech stock i had was worth only pennies. i bought the very very top of a multiyear bubble. man, i got so mad. i swore to myself i would fucking hold that those vw shares until they 10folded, so i would come out clean.   everyone told me it was a stupid idea because stocks of car companies never 10fold. 8 years later (!) the vw shares made a sudden 10fold and i sold right away. the banker never looked into my eyes again and i had learned a big lesson.
when i bought my first bitcoin it again was at the very top of a bubble. bitcoin started a 90% nose dive one day after i bought.
i still own the dot com bubble stock. still worth only pennies. in harsh contrast to the btc i bought.

What a cool story, thanks...
I first made quite well on internet stocks (being an investment newbie back then), then lost almost EVERYTHING, apart from money I cashed out during 1997-2001 on family expenses and a house downpayment. Had to rebuild my stocks back from a low number, mostly in retirement accounts, but, hey, I got a house out of it back then.
The propensity for "risky" bets reared it's head again with btc, lol.
4458  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2019, 05:15:56 PM
Oh, boy.
20-year old is "jumping the shark".
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-youre-not-a-billionaire-in-10-years-its-your-own-fault-says-20-year-old-bitcoin-tycoon-2019-05-14

Of note, marketwatch refers to a person with 450 btc as a "tycoon".
4459  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2019, 05:02:01 PM
An OG with 50k coins will have more power than most countries do now.
~150 of them will have half the world's wealth.
By far the most people will not have any money at all.
Bitcoin will bring about a new feudal technocracy.
But first, complete chaos.

That very well may be, but how exactly would you exert that wealth without spending precious bitcoin and thereby, reducing your bitcoin stash?
Bitcoin lending? Why would some lend a deflationary asset? Borrowing cash against your btc stash? That can turn ugly at 80% drawdown.
Bitcoin interest-a ridiculous idea that is not even practical without someone rehypothicating bitcoin, which should be a bad habit.
I am close to 100% certain that blockFi will kick the bucket at one point or another.
You could do lending  crypto to crypto with a smart contract with assets put on the line as collateral but of course this would need to be all cleared by the government as binding before anyone would risk it.

Yes, my point is that you cannot do anything without spending or somehow lending it out, so OGs will have difficulty influencing much, unless some secondary markets develop.
They could buy stock in Volkswagen as they own Lamborghini and that shits going to spike. That might be a safe bet actually 😉

LOL..so that 2008 superspike in Volkswagen stock was maybe a premonition of things to come? JK
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen/short-sellers-make-vw-the-worlds-priciest-firm-idUSTRE49R3I920081028
4460  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2019, 04:53:22 PM
An OG with 50k coins will have more power than most countries do now.
~150 of them will have half the world's wealth.
By far the most people will not have any money at all.
Bitcoin will bring about a new feudal technocracy.
But first, complete chaos.

That very well may be, but how exactly would you exert that wealth without spending precious bitcoin and thereby, reducing your bitcoin stash?
Bitcoin lending? Why would some lend a deflationary asset? Borrowing cash against your btc stash? That can turn ugly at 80% drawdown.
Bitcoin interest-a ridiculous idea that is not even practical without someone rehypothicating bitcoin, which should be a bad habit.
I am close to 100% certain that blockFi will kick the bucket at one point or another.
You could do lending  crypto to crypto with a smart contract with assets put on the line as collateral but of course this would need to be all cleared by the government as binding before anyone would risk it.

Yes, my point is that you cannot do anything without spending or somehow lending it out, so OGs will have difficulty influencing much, unless some secondary markets develop.
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