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4441  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: October 07, 2012, 05:05:36 PM
That 1000 BTC that was just bought must now be sold.

Or it could be traded for goods and services, or saved for a rainy day.
4442  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: October 07, 2012, 03:44:54 AM
Keep calm. Dont panic. Keep calm. Dont panic.Keep calm. Dont panic.Keep calm. Dont panic.Keep calm. Dont panic.Keep calm. Dont panic.Keep calm. Dont panic.Keep calm. Dont panic.Keep calm. Dont panic.Keep calm. Dont panic.

Panic!
4443  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Gresham's Law, Anyone? on: October 07, 2012, 03:42:48 AM
Second sentence, first link:
It is commonly stated as: "Bad money drives out good", but is more accurately stated: "Bad money drives out good if their exchange rate is set by law."

=>Gresham's Law does not apply to Bitcoin
QED
4444  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: October 07, 2012, 03:23:40 AM

But answer me this, why does the season have anything to with the price?

Schools are out in the summer, so college kids have more time to browse the web.

Right - because college students are the ones funding the last few million needed to move the price from 5 to 15.  Roll Eyes

Also, one man's winter is another man's summer.
4445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: October 07, 2012, 03:21:09 AM
Simply safer to be in anything but btc right now. Risk reward ratio is poor. Too much risk.
All this SEC talk is just icing on the cake now. That investment in satoshi dice looks quite dicey ;-)
If you had 2500 btc tied up in it would you feel good right now?

That sucks, but don't blame bitcoin for your investment losses.
4446  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Let's have a little fun then, shall we. on: October 07, 2012, 03:07:35 AM
bitcoinbitcoin113 - Nah, you'll get paid at the address of record as shown by this article (so please post it). Trying to keep things manageable.

notme - That works, for a signature. Still need to post your address.

Fine.... copying from signature... pasting....
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
4447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Defaults causing sell offs? on: October 06, 2012, 10:23:20 PM
Quote
I'm beginning to think that some major bitcointalk downtime would be a good thing.

Great idea. Maybe even just shut the website down for 8-10 hours a day.

Randomly Wink
4448  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Let's have a little fun then, shall we. on: October 06, 2012, 10:19:29 PM
Done.  Use the address in my signature.

I dont see it?

I do...

I'm not sure which you mean, but both the ad phase and an address are in my signature.
On most browsers, the signature cuts off at 42px (3 lines).

Okay, thanks for letting me know I'm not crazy.  I'll remove the empty line.

Edit: Better now MPOE-PR?
4449  Economy / Speculation / Re: Defaults causing sell offs? on: October 06, 2012, 08:43:31 PM
Do you think today's sell off is being caused by GLBSE closing? Do you ever think we will get to the point where a record default won't cause a dip in price?

If we want bitcoin to be more than bitcointalk.org why does it seem that we don't act like it? Price changes happen on many announcements, some I don't think that are warranted. Also many websites still update their users only here on bitcointalk.org. I'm beginning to think that some major bitcointalk downtime would be a good thing. So that people realize bitcoin would go on without it

That's actually not a bad idea.  It would force everyone to expand their local bitcoin community.
4450  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Let's have a little fun then, shall we. on: October 06, 2012, 08:40:00 PM
Done.  Use the address in my signature.

I dont see it?

I do...

I'm not sure which you mean, but both the ad phase and an address are in my signature.
4451  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: bitfloor needs your help! on: October 06, 2012, 08:37:06 PM
Smarter people could help me out here if I dont know what I'm talking about, but how about these ideas:

In order to prove "...changed our fund storage policy to 100% offline storage for your funds. Daily transactions through out hot wallet will be backed by Bitfloor funds, never putting client funds at risk." You could sign messages from both the Bitfloor wallet and the customer funds wallet or at least show a picture of what you used to make the offline wallet or the offline wallet itself.

In order to prove "Bitfloor is now running on dedicated servers in a PCI compliant data center based in the US." you could show some sort of recipt from said data center.

In order to prove "Backups are encrypted and write only on all of the servers." why not just host them publicly?  If they are properly encrypted it shouldn't be an issue and I believe with some cyrtpo hash magic a person should be able to verify their own details are in the backup without others being able to break it.




Were these bad ideas?

Yes, mostly.

1) Making public information about how he created his cold wallet, or how it is stored, or where it is stored reduces his security.
2) Shouldn't be too harmful since anyone can verify that themselves with the existing public record Wink.
3) Making them public reduces the effort of a compromise from "breaking into his server, obtaining root access to change permissions on backups, copying backups, finding the password" to "finding the password".  Regardless, no amount of crypto "magic" will allow parts of the encrypted data to be read or even verified, so it would be pointless anyway.  Hashing and encryption are two very different beasts.
4452  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Let's have a little fun then, shall we. on: October 06, 2012, 05:45:15 PM
Done.  Use the address in my signature.
4453  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 06, 2012, 05:12:24 PM
Quote
We will have falling wages, but purchasing power per dollar will increase.
why would purchasing power per dollar increase due to inflationary policies? Even with real economic growth, purchasing power per dollar falls due to inflation

Because, as I already stated, the deflationary pressures are stronger than the actual effects of the policy due to the fact that the printed money only goes to the financial sector and they are hording it.
4454  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY!!! on: October 06, 2012, 04:44:03 PM
Maybe you have a private definition of efficient, but it seems like you're arguing something else. At any given moment, a financial instrument's price takes into account all publicly available information, and if there is a large amount of insider trading, privately available. Prices change cannot be predicted by looking at historical price data.

Well I've given clear definitions for my claims.  You however seem to only be able to argue against claims I'm not making.  I never said anything about predicting future prices.
4455  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 05, 2012, 10:39:31 PM
Credit money, when paid back, disappears until a bank decides to create a new loan. There is nothing to loan until the bank decides to loan. If banks, as a whole, decide to reduce the amount of credit money in circulation, yes there will be bankruptcies and such, but there should also be deflation and things will eventually work itself out if the central bank does not intervene. Interest has very little to do with the situation. Loaning money into circulation puts money in circulation. It doesn't matter how it got there as long as it's circulating. And interest can go on indefinitely without printing money as long as the employees/shareholders of the bank spend money at some point, but this is true for anyone who comes into possession of money.

There are reserve requirements though, so when the money comes back, it allows them to loan that much more back out.  Before it comes back they can't loan it out if they are already at the limit.  But, a lot of banks are aren't at the limit.  They are just holding large reserves and being ultra conservative... reducing the amount in circulation and steering us toward waves of bankruptcies.  Sure, they can fight the deflation with money printing, but they still haven't solved the problem of getting the money out of the financial sector.  Right now, they are giving wall street exactly the powder they need to hold the dollar hostage.

There will be no glamorous and hollywood-esque "dollar death", but instead a slow decline of standard of living and purchasing power. If the malinvestment policies keep up at their current pace, we may have the first reversal in our otherwise monotonic real wage growth of the last ~70 years.

We will have falling wages, but purchasing power per dollar will increase.
4456  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY!!! on: October 05, 2012, 10:18:54 PM
Wrong again. You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient. It does not take two to tango.

Your statement 'You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient' is not the same as my thesis that every bit of information must be known by opposing forces in order for the market to be efficient.  If my condition is broken, then the sole party with the true information can use exactly the tactic you describe to break the efficiency.  They purposely let the price deviate from it's true value in order to gather money from suckers.  I'll give you that the break is temporary because they have to take profits at some point, so sure, all markets are "eventually" efficient.
4457  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 05, 2012, 05:27:26 PM
Right, and when they do that, there is not enough money to pay the interest that is due

Again, not strictly true. The same dollar can pay off multiple debts as long as it is spent back into circulation.

But the point I keep repeating is that it's not getting spent back into circulation.  It is only being loaned.
4458  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Prediction] BTC will be at 19+USD before the reward halving on: October 05, 2012, 04:01:36 PM
i expect to see single digits

not me
4459  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 05, 2012, 04:00:40 PM
Quote
Banks hold tight to their money these days.

This is the problem of credit money. Banks have all the power, and they can shrink the effective supply of money very easily.

Right, and when they do that, there is not enough money to pay the interest that is due and we will soon start to have waves of bankruptcies unless some miracle jump starts the economy.
4460  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 05, 2012, 03:30:52 PM
They can continue to trade as if they are solvent and nobody can prove they don't have the funds to back up their positions.

They also have the US military/policing power backing up their position. You can foist any amount of crappy currency or ideas on anyone if you have a big enough army.

For how long?

Even a nuclear arsenal requires wealth to maintain. A slow slide into bankruptcy can accomplish some of the same results as a sudden military strike. See the former USSR.

But they only went bankrupt because they wasted a decade fighting the mountain people in Afghanistan... oh wait...
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