Organofcorti, I deeply respect your projections and therefore your well educated opinion: what would you believe to be a reasonable pricing for Avalon batch #4, if official shipping date is "early June" and therefore most likely delivery date in July?
With reasonable I mean a pricing that will very likely allow a ROI + some profits (in BTC, as it's impossible to know the exchange rate in X months)
I'm debating with myself if doing a considerable investment in Avalon batch #4 (disclaimer: I could have a very reasonable electrical cost)
How about it organofcorti! Im standing next to Rampion with the same sea of questions roaring in my head! Do you mind obliging ... Thanks in advance, i can safely say "we" appreciate youre efforts. Sorry Rampion, I didn't see that. I'll have a look at it when I get home tonight. Great, thank you! |
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Day trader here and up 1600% so far on Bitcoin. Buy low, sell high. Use logic, fuck emotion. Good luck!
Nice...I started a week ago and am up 10% on my investment. Somebody tell me what other investments can return 10% in one week?  The way I see it is it's more fun, active and potentially higher return than than if you leave your money in the bank. Also my number one rule is I don't sleep with bitcoins, sure I have some fun with them during the day but I don't want to take them to bed with me or I will be checking on them throughout the night. If you bought one week ago you should have made much more than 10%. Heck, you should have made almost +80%, last week BTC/USD was at $80ish and now at +$140 If you only made 10% then you really suck at trading my friend. haha yeah maybe but 80% would have been with a buy and hold policy. Also it would be more like 20% if I didn't make a couple of panic sells like the OP. Most of people registered in this forums for 4 or more months have made a return between 300% and +1000% with "buy and hold" policy. It looks like a good policy for BTC |
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Day trader here and up 1600% so far on Bitcoin. Buy low, sell high. Use logic, fuck emotion. Good luck!
Nice...I started a week ago and am up 10% on my investment. Somebody tell me what other investments can return 10% in one week? The way I see it is it's more fun, active and potentially higher return than than if you leave your money in the bank. Also my number one rule is I don't sleep with bitcoins, sure I have some fun with them during the day but I don't want to take them to bed with me or I will be checking on them throughout the night. If you bought one week ago you should have made much more than 10%. Heck, you should have made almost +80%, last week BTC/USD was at $80ish and now at +$140 If you only made 10% then you really suck at trading my friend. |
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The "please ship ASAP! Thank you!" comment on an April, 2nd order is funny and pitiful at the same time
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 You mean someone paid for an ASIC device and received it within a week of sending payment!? Bow down to the friedcat. This is something remarkably amazing. The first company providing big-scale immediate shipping for ASIC products will be golden. |
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ROI is quickly going out the window, but the question becomes will people still run the ASIC's even if they are loosing money on power costs.
Well, those who pay electricity $0.3 will shut their rigs off way before than those paying $0.15, and those who do not pay electricity at all... Well, they will shut their rigs of much later. And I can guarantee you that there are quite a few big-size mining set ups that pay 0 for electricity. Yep, I will have a facility available for .02/Kwh this summer. Cheap power and credible ASIC management is where it is at. -D I think you are providing a very smart and needed service. $0.02 Kw/h is a killer! |
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30-40btc for 45ghs unit and june delivery
Or
20-35 9if july/august
Well, frankly: there is a huge difference between 30 BTC or 40 BTCEven greater between 20 BTC and 35 BTC40 BTC seems too much for a 45GHs unit, even if it's delivered in June (we all know it will most likely delivered in July, if everything goes well). 30 BTC would be OK IMO, but 25 BTC would be really great and would attract a lot of customers which are now thinking on BFL 35 BTC for July/August would be crazy IMO, the difficulty will be at least x5 what we have now. 20 BTC for August? That would be nice. |
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The number one lesson when day trading: Stick to your order, don't try to make it undone!! Just wait, Bitcoin price is all over the place during the course of a week and you will make a profit guaranteed if you muster a little patience.
This. Panic market orders based on feelings/emotions is ridiculous. Doing that you will be loosing money in the long term, it can go well for 5, 10, even 15 trades, but as soon as it goes bad you will destroy the profit you did in all the other trades. |
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If more efficient ASIC miners are not offered, the network hashrate will plateau when we hit very high difficulty out as those with higher electricity costs start to switch off. At the current exchange rate, a 67Ghps Avalon will run at a loss in California when mining difficulty reaches ~ 3 billion.
You are not taking into account BTC price organofcorti:) That is unknown variable for sure. However what you are saying sounds reasonable but in general gold rush will end only when gold ends. There will be a lot to come  The first ones buying the shovels will make a lot of money. But at the end of the day the only ones doing a LOT of money will be the ones selling the shovels. |
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After looking at the data around the expected hash rate & difficulty - what is the estimated ROI? I'd say 3 to 5 years
If any investment in BTC hardware turns into years it can be considered dead or infinity in terms of roi. So i would say if you do not get BTC ROI in 5-7 months max consider that it will take forever amusing the difficulty will be raising quickly don't you think the difficulty will level out at some point? after august-dec maybe? and at the point the cost to run the miners may exceed the return Level Out ? All guy's here are ordering (including me) like crazy. Some are ordering now BFL. when do you think they are going to get their BFL units ordered now? It will level out if we level out or if BTC collapses. I do not want second to happen for sure but chances for the first one to happen are almost 0 Just look at new ASIC scams threads about 40 pages to level out. If they were not scams? The rule of the game is that if someone wants a steady profit of X the reinvestment of Y is a must. I am talking about mining strictly here. Speculations is another story If more efficient ASIC miners are not offered, the network hashrate will plateau when we hit very high difficulty out as those with higher electricity costs start to switch off. At the current exchange rate, a 67Ghps Avalon will run at a loss in California when mining difficulty reaches ~ 3 billion. Organofcorti, I deeply respect your projections and therefore your well educated opinion: what would you believe to be a reasonable pricing for Avalon batch #4, if official shipping date is "early June" and therefore most likely delivery date in July? With reasonable I mean a pricing that will very likely allow a ROI + some profits (in BTC, as it's impossible to know the exchange rate in X months) I'm debating with myself if doing a considerable investment in Avalon batch #4 (disclaimer: I could have a very reasonable electrical cost) |
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WTF do you try to daytrade based on feelings, with no strategy at all?
Pros are making a profit thanks to you.
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I guess they will auction batch #4 devices.
Unfortunatelly it will be best option for Avalon. Good thing is we can still buy cheap BFL units, but expected delivery during next year imho I really hope they don't do that. |
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Ok, today I met orsoc CEO Johan personally and I can confirm 100% this is not a scam
He is interested in bitcoin and knows a lot about it. He acknowledged that they have been discussing this product offering with kncminer for weeks and there will be news published later this week
They will have a more concrete technical specification for the product soon
Happy to read that. I happen to be one of the person here that think they really sounds legit. We will have to wait more, as we've seen many scammers so far, but it definitely looks good knowing that a company like Orsoc will help develop the product. Can we know how and why you have been able to meet him? I have contacted both Sam and Johan through email, saying I have been in community for almost 2 years and could provide some useful information for them (I'm living in Stockholm), and Johan invited me for a lunch Well, I'm afraid the will ask for money in advance in order to fund developing before having working units, and you know how that turned out for BFL, bASIC, etc. Hope I'm wrong. |
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ordered mine today, i know it'll take a while to ship but that's all part of the thrill isn't it? You will receive in June. 2014. |
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Just to inform you that it is also possible to buy smaller batches of Avalon ASIC chips through www.asic-chips.comAs opposed to other Group Buy or Distribution initiatives on this forum, the chips for sale on this website are more expensive but include tax, custom and handling fees. Chips offered are distributed from a batch that was ordered on 22 April and will take about 10 weeks before they arrive and can be shipped. Shipping takes place from Belgium and you can always change your shipping address (e.g. if you would like direct shipment to a board assembler/manufacturer). How do we know this is not a scam? What kind of guarantees are you offering to your customers? |
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I think there will not be any batch#4 as Avalon is selling chips now.
Avalon team mentioned before that selling mining machine is not the initial purpose for them. Now BFL already start to ship their mining machine and there are many persons willing to buy Avalon chips. It's unnecessary for them to continue selling mining machines by themselves.
Well, not everybody can set up mining units from the chips. I would personally love to be able to buy some batch #4 units if a) the pricing and b) the expected shipping timeframe are reasonable. |
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When are they accepting orders?
If it's this week, I may bite... however, one week may be the answer for whn I get my BFL gear... at which point I'll be content with my purchase.
If they allow me to order this week for a 90GH unit, I may consider throwing 30-40 BTCs at it.
Well, I would consider a bargain 30 BTC for 90GHs. I would buy +10 of those. 50 BTC I would think it is a fair price and I would still buy more than 1 unit, considering that would mean a 30 days ROI with x3 difficulty (27 million). More than 50 BTC for 90GHs, I would think very well about it and maybe I would buy just 1 unit as a gamble. If the pricing is more than 65 BTC per 90GHs, I will pass for sure unless they could guarantee immediate shipping (which unfortunately is not how it works). |
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ROI is quickly going out the window, but the question becomes will people still run the ASIC's even if they are loosing money on power costs.
Well, those who pay electricity $0.3 will shut their rigs off way before than those paying $0.15, and those who do not pay electricity at all... Well, they will shut their rigs of much later. And I can guarantee you that there are quite a few big-size mining set ups that pay 0 for electricity. |
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As long as you make about $2000 from each machine, it's a good investment. Further, bitching to Avalon won't make them ship faster. Perhaps Yifu might delay your machines just to troll you, who knows.
No, I'd consider that a complete failure as an investment. I paid 77 coins per batch 2 machine I ordered. If I do not earn 77BTC back (per machine) in a reasonable time frame, then it was a losing investment. Heh. I did the smart thing and pegged it to USD. As long as I get it back and then some, I'm golden. Define reasonable time frame. A realistic ROI on investments IRL is 5-10% yearly, at best. Not on BTC mining investments. Due to difficulty increases, if your device doesn't pay for itself in the first year it never will. Probably the first 6 months, TBH. Resale value will be next to nothing. This. Hopefully now that BFL is shipping we will have some batch #4 Avalons with a competitive price, let's say 25 BTC for 45GHs and 50 BTC for 90GHs. That would ROI in 30 days at 27 million difficulty, which I think is the minimum diff. we will see when batch #4 Avalons start to arrive to customers hands. |
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Yep, we are really arriving to the "point of no ROI"  I think Avalon gave a good price for their chips. I hope they will be also kind enough to price their batch #4 at around 25 BTC for 45GHs and 50 BTC for 90GHs. I think they would still have a decent profit, while allowing for decent ROI also to batch #4 customers. Higher than that (0.55 BTC per GHs), unfortunately I believe there won't be any ROI for batch #4, as I would expect that no batch #4 will be hashing in the wild before July. |
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