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4461  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY!!! on: October 05, 2012, 03:07:40 PM
No shit, I understand EMH, but the bitcoin market is not efficient like "real" financial markets are.

EMH is a bunch of crap due to asymmetrical knowledge and information.
Yeah, every market participant doesn't need identical information for markets to be efficient, not even sure how you arrived at that conclusion.

No, but every piece of information has to meet a certain threshold of opposing parties who are aware of it for a market to be efficient.
4462  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 05, 2012, 03:03:18 PM
deflation kills the economy ONLY with debt currencies (which all "mainstream" currencies are) - because you always need more money to pay off the debt, and that has to be "printed" - so the system can ONLY be kept going with a certain rate of inflation

You don't always need more money to pay off the debt, you need to ensure that the currency circulates. The worry is that even a small amount of deflation can lead to a cycle of reduced spending, more deflation, job losses, etc. This isn't magically solved by a non-debt based currency. The debt has very little correlation to the inflation rate. This can be easily seen by historical inflation rates and historical debt rates. Either government raises taxes to spend or government sells securities to spend (debt), either way the government is spending and the effects are similar.

Inflation is caused on purpose by the Fed and what it charges for credit. It does this to avoid deflation, no more, no less. Unfortunately the way it does this is by gifting banks at the theft of the people.

Except savings and CDs have been neutered to the point that they only way for repaid debt to reenter circulation is for it to be lent out again.  Unless something changes, you do need more printing to pay down the total debt.  Banks hold tight to their money these days.
4463  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin is centralised on: October 05, 2012, 01:27:49 AM
before i explain how, i want you to understand the difference between centralised and controlled.

centralised is where there is one main value indicator that everyone uses to make trading fair for both parties. in fiat terms the value "use to" represent gold value. which banks decided.

the banks decide value and governments control how we use it with laws and taxes.

luckily there is no 'control' but there is a centralised value for bitcoin

so back to the point. bitcoin is centralised but not controlled. i say this as the huge majority of people trading base the value of bitcoin on MTGox prices. so lets treat mtgox like the national reserve.. just without the gold inside.... lol

imagine a bitcoin world where people did not trade based on a FIAT value conversion but based on TIME. i said it in another thread but il say it here,

in medieval times a butcher would spend half an hour preparing a succulent beef steak, and would trade it for half an hour with a prostitute or for 2 flagons of ale.

in modern terms without thinking about the FIAT value imagine a days wage allowed you to go out in the evening to a bar, get so drunk you score with the ugliest woman you see and get a fast food meal at the end of the night.

again forgetting about fiat value. imagine we traded based on how many bitcoins we mine in one day being able to get that same evenings experience, or thinking that buying that gpu is worth 5 days of bitcoin labour.

reply with thoughts

I don't use MtGox price.  Nice try though.
4464  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: [BitcoinMax.com] Closed on: October 05, 2012, 12:58:32 AM
its getting awfully quiet in here :x

Everyone's waiting for the 9th, where nothing will continue to happen.

The nothing is supposed to happen on the 12th I think.

Right.
4465  Economy / Economics / Re: The Tomato Soup Index - Inflation Sucks on: October 03, 2012, 07:20:10 PM
You could buy a can of tomato soup in 1950 for a dime. In 2012, you can buy somewhere between 2.5 and 3 cans of tomato soup for a dime. Oh, but it has to be the same dime. (The current melt value of a 1950 silver dime is around $2.50.) It occurs to me that people see inflation and get angry, but most of them don't see the deflation that would have occurred if people were freely allowed to use a sound currency. The theft is bigger than you thought.
Not really when it's so easy to adapt. If you put it in a savings account you would could buy just under 2, and if you put it in 1 year bonds you could buy about 5 after taxes. If you put it in an S&P index fund you could buy more than 50. Why anyone would want a system that would discourage people from investing and creating such a fantastic wealth increase is beyond me.

Because there is no wealth increase, only a transfer from the poor working stiffs who are too busy to track what the manipulators are doing to those who are better informed.
4466  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: cbitcoin - Bitcoin implementation in C. Currently in development. on: October 03, 2012, 07:08:18 PM
Hmm. I'm not used to all the legal-speak sorry. It does go over my head a lot of it.  Cheesy

What about linking to the library which is what I really mean to say. That's a different story isn't it?

Linkability is precisely the distinction between GPL and LGPL.  GPL can only link with GPL.  LGPL can link with anything, but anyone who distributes the library must still provide source and any modifications done to the library.
4467  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time projection of the last wave before next crash on: October 03, 2012, 04:36:26 PM
This is the only way I know of to achieve time expansion:

4468  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: cbitcoin - Bitcoin implementation in C. Currently in development. on: October 02, 2012, 09:10:48 PM
You see I don't want that. People will come and make their proprietary software using my free software. I'd be benefiting them with free software when they are not willing to make their software free. If I could have a license which

Just because something is closed source doesn't mean it isn't free.

When you use RMS's definition of freedom it does.

Closed source means your handing over your computer power to the programmer without being able to audit what he does with it.
4469  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 02, 2012, 06:00:24 PM
I've seen no vast coverage of this turn of events that should be relevant for the dollar, what do you guys think about it?

Dollar no longer primary oil currency as China begins to sell oil using Yuan

FOREX.  Look it up.  The currency of settlement for oil purchases is unimportant.

Can you explain this as if I was a five-year old?

Say that you could only trade oil for dollars.  If an oil-buyer didn't have dollars, they'd have to buy some, using whatever they do have, to use to buy oil.  If an oil-seller doesn't want to hold dollars, they'll have to sell the dollars they get from the sale in order to get whatever it is that they do want.

So, if the buyer can get dollars just before the purchase, and the seller can get rid of them just after the purchase, where could a net demand for dollars possibly come from?  It can only come from the desire to hold dollars.

Assuming the purchase takes 0 time.  Here in reality where everything takes nonzero time there will always be a certain amount tied up because of in-progress transactions.  This creates a net demand which will disappear when other currencies are used.  Sure, it's small compared to the total transactions over a longer period, but it is not insignificant.
4470  Other / Off-topic / Re: Did NSA Put a Secret Backdoor in New Encryption Standard? on: October 02, 2012, 05:08:41 PM
Anything to worry about?

No.
4471  Economy / Speculation / Re: [NEWS] Bit4x.com - First FOREX accepts bitcoin! - 1:1000 Leverage!!! on: October 02, 2012, 03:42:31 PM
From my reading of things, they only let you trade currencies and metals.  The bitcoin is for margin only.
4472  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: | BitPonzi - 7% weekly :: Invest if you want, Proceeds to Charity | on: October 02, 2012, 03:51:34 AM
Its nota ponzi its a pyramid scheme  Tongue
Its like pennystocks, first in first out, everbody knows its pumped but still they jump on.
The only thing missing is the pump mob  Shocked

We're all pumped out here at least until the 12th Wink Tongue.
4473  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 01, 2012, 07:13:05 PM
The Federal Government is overspending by such a wide margin the only solution they have at this point is to devalue the dollar so the cost of borrowing does not collapse the welfare spending mountain.

The problem is so bad with excess federal spending that the only solutions we have at this point would be to cut spending across the board by 50%, raise taxes on every single person by 25%, confiscate wealth from the people in any way possible, or just default on the federal debt.

If we default on the federal debt the main group which will be crushed would be...The Federal Reserve.  The Fed has been putting so much federal debt on to its books that any change in the system at this point would really pound them.  If Ron Paul really wanted to "End the Fed", this would kill two birds with one stone.

1) Allow the Fed to buy U.S. debt back from foreign investors and don't sell any more debt outside the Fed.
2) Announce a new currency which will be backed with a basket of items such as Oil, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Lithium, etc...
3) Give everyone 1 year to exchange the old dollar with the new currency
4)  The Fed would take the loss from the currency devaluation and the federal debt.  This would end the Fed.

5) We start over.

Good luck with that.

We can't audit the Fed, so we can't prove they are insolvent.  They can continue to trade as if they are solvent and nobody can prove they don't have the funds to back up their positions.
4474  Other / Off-topic / Re: Hmm Starwars universe = real in about 500 years from now? on: October 01, 2012, 07:01:45 PM
So star wars will be a history book in 500 years - woot!

Star wars has always been a history book.

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...

Really my school never tought me anything about Star Wars :-( and just checked not in any history book you lied!

That quote says "will be a history book" not "will be in a history book".
4475  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: cbitcoin - Bitcoin implementation in C. Currently in development. on: October 01, 2012, 07:00:23 PM
The GPL is a serious problem? For some people maybe. For me? No.

Don't mind the freedom haters.  It's your code, license it how you'd like.
4476  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 01, 2012, 06:55:59 PM
Or maybe he's trying to soften the deflation.  Nothing kills a consumerist economy like falling prices.

This is only true for dept based currency, as the dollar and all other fiat currencies.  

This only applies to reality...

Not for gold or bitcoin  Wink

Unfortunately neither gold or bitcoin matter much for the prices consumers in the US see.
4477  Other / Off-topic / Re: Hmm Starwars universe = real in about 500 years from now? on: October 01, 2012, 06:51:56 PM
So star wars will be a history book in 500 years - woot!

Star wars has always been a history book.

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...
4478  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 01, 2012, 06:50:24 PM
Or maybe he's trying to soften the deflation.  Nothing kills a consumerist economy like falling prices.

This is only true for dept based currency, as the dollar and all other fiat currencies.  

This only applies to reality...
4479  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar slowly collapsing on: October 01, 2012, 03:36:29 PM
Or maybe he's trying to soften the deflation.  Nothing kills a consumerist economy like falling prices.
4480  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will the effect the BTC market? on: September 29, 2012, 12:56:28 AM
My guess is they are establishing a huge degree of connectivity (likely connecting to every node) and only passing out the nodes they control when outside nodes ask for peers.  They are the first to be notified of the blocks and then broadcast them out to every other node.

As a side note, they could also attack a particular node by sending a transaction to them and simultaneously sending a double spend transaction to everyone else.  That's likely what they are referring to in the article.

As for their solution, I couldn't find any info, but I'll think about it.
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