Do you really think that bitcoin will really reach 9k this year or more ?
$9k? sure, that's pretty likely. whether we enter a new bull market or just make a retrace in a bear market, that's not a difficult target to reach. the bigger question is whether the bear market continues, and whether we see new lows. i'd love to be proven wrong, but i'm guessing this is just a bounce with more pain to come. i think $2000-$5000 is still on the cards later this year. |
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You knuckleheads still don't get that the supply gets lower and lower as we speak.
Lower just like people interest in bitcoin. You knucklehead are not reading what we are telling you. Although supply is important it is not the ultimate factor. Besides there is going to be a limit on how much a bitcoin can be worth. take a look at the charts in 2011 or 2014. interest plummeted along with price. everyone thought bitcoin was dead. and then......another bubble happened. rinse, repeat. People saying bitcoin 1 million dollars are delusional.
you may turn out correct---maybe the hype will die and crypto won't go mainstream. that's certainly possible. but it all boils down to supply and demand. and if bitcoin continues on this path (traditional investment asset, regulated institutional markets, mainstream adoption), then $1 million price tag actually sounds quite low. you know there will only ever be 21 million coins, right? bitcoin just needs to take a small slice of gold's market (let alone others) to achieve that. |
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i'm curious how they distinguish between "lost" and "dormant" BTC, especially since the chainalysis research last year revealed similar numbers.
As always only assumptions. I continue to cringe when these articles pop up. It's an easy way of generating an article that one way or another might spark a discussion which CCN benefits from in this case. it may have been intended as clickbait by CCN, but jameson lopp isn't nobody. he created statoshi.info and has always produced interesting and accurate network statistics (also known for being the lead engineer at bitgo). since he was the source for these stats, i was curious. That stolen BTC is not problem for total supply in any way, they only replaced the owners - so why they put stolen and losted coins in same basket? i'm guessing most of those coins pertain to high-profile hacks (like mt gox and bitfinex). the running assumption has been that it would be very difficult for the owners of these coins to cash out significant value given that the wallets are closely monitored by law enforcement. |
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it's funny watching old gold bugs trying to ride on bitcoin's coattails. they should drop their shiny rocks and go full crypto.  Gold lost 18% for last seven years, what's a point with gold?
to be fair, you're ignoring the preceding mega-rally where gold rose ~665% from 1999-2011. it's not exactly bitcoin-level volatility, but it's nothing to sneeze at. by your logic, we should have declared bitcoin dead back in 2015 after the 2-year bear market.  |
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too bad there was no discussion of the data used. i'm curious how they distinguish between "lost" and "dormant" BTC, especially since the chainalysis research last year revealed similar numbers.
i suppose the actual number doesn't make much difference anyway. the spot market price is the result of the actual current circulating supply (market inefficiencies aside), not some static predetermined supply as with market cap.
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Last year, 2017, the price of bitcoin exceeded 20k USD in the market in the month of December. It showed as how can bitcoin can reach on its extremes and how the demand can affect it. Some people said that bitcoin this year can reach upto 30k USD! let's keep things in perspective. that's one data point, and sure, the 2013 bubble is another. but let's look at some other data points. in december 2011, bitcoin was experiencing its worst bear market ever recorded. in december 2014, we were in the middle of the brutal 2014 bear market. so i wouldn't put any stock into the holidays mattering. it really depends on the broader market cycle. The demand for bitcoin is increasing when this last months comes.
i disagree, lol. this has been a bloody bear market for 6+ months now.....  |
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The sooner the better, I think. Maybe if you are a miner you don’t think the same.
why not? last time the halving happened on 2016-7-9 that meant price started rising about 1-1.5 months before it and went from $430 to $780 (81% rise) so 1 month of higher profit for the existing miners was the first result. then after the correction of that bubble the price reached $800+ in about 5 months which means their profit went back to normal with half the reward. i suspect he's thinking about miners' long term perspective. any miner should prefer 2x the mining rewards than 2x the price---because miners are investors. they're investing in mining hardware because they expect far more than a simple 2x on their investment. the majority of bitcoins are already mined out. so it's an all-out arms race for miners.... |
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Some even asked how to use Bitmex or Bitfinex to short. They basically want BTC to go to $1000 so they can recoup some of their losses.
Basically they will lose money going both directions. Due to greed and emotion.
that's why most people are losing traders---they buy the top and sell the bottom. it's just human nature. at the lows, they think "it's dead." during the bubble, they wait because they want so badly to be right. then at the highs, they think "new paradigm" and buy the top. then they're too stubborn to sell/short when it crashes; they wait to sell the bottom. as much hate as the asset bubble chart gets around here, it's pretty accurate if you see it as a cyclical kind of thing. |
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Maybe the theory of miners not leaving Bitcoin go below $6,000 is real? remember that there is this big rumor of $6,000 being the price in which miners would start losing money. What dumb miner would sell their Bitcoin at a loss? I think this may be true after all. They will keep it above this range until bears give up, then the rest will FOMO back in.
$6000 on average sounds kind of high, does it not? maybe times have changed---sometimes i forget that BTC isn't still trading in the $200s too. gotta account for subsidized electricity too, and more importantly, bitmain. they have a near monopoly on chip manufacturing, then they mine with customer hardware and probably have the best electricity rates in the world. then again, i suspect bitmain withholds most of their coins from the market.... lots of variables here.  |
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I'm still leaning towards this being our Spring. I was beginning to get worried if we didn't see something like we just saw with this pump to $6,400.
The Wyckoff Spring still isn't in the bag quite yet in regards to "CONFIRMED." We should expect a TEST of Support once more before going up. It's still POSSIBLE this could be a bull trap to load up some Margin Longs in the books; only to liquidate them later. So, be careful.
If you have not made entry yet, you might want to wait for a dip coming down. In other words, wait on a good dip when looking at the 4h or 6h TF's.
yep, this is sage advice, and exactly how i approach trading BTC now. i find that action is much choppier now than years ago, and therefore i avoid catching knives in an attempt to catch the spring. rather, i wait for that first selloff attempt following the spring. once i see signs of bottoming on low time frames, i accumulate position and buy dips thereafter (as long as we haven't run my stops and shown weakness). it's not as profitable as riding the spring, but it's less stressful and requires little babysitting. and that's important for me when longing in a bearish market. in an obvious bull market, i'm less careful. |
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nah, none of that shit really matters IMO. price is falling because we're in a bear market: sellers outnumber buyers and sentiment is awful. in a bull market, nobody would care about these stories. there was all sorts of bad news preceding the bubble last year---including bitcoin ETF rejection, tether conspiracies, the B2X fork and miners trolling segwit activation, etc---but the market stayed bullish and exploded into a parabola. all that matters is the trend. here's an example of how insignificant news can be: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4541833.msg40973199#msg40973199 |
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well somebody keeps buying the $6k (and under) level, and on decent volume too. everyday, i'm surprised we're still hanging up here---i expected the descent to continue ever since that brutal breakdown one week ago. i'm really surprised at the lack of panic in the market when we went sub-$6k. all i can say is bitcoin loves to troll us traders. this thing can go either way right now. risk off!  looks like the master troll has chosen direction. epic spike heading into the daily candle close!  that's now two strong attempts to sell off that have been sternly rejected by bulls. good evidence that sellers are starting to lose control. i'm starting to believe this might just hold the $6k level and start bucking shorts! |
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well somebody keeps buying the $6k (and under) level, and on decent volume too. everyday, i'm surprised we're still hanging up here---i expected the descent to continue ever since that brutal breakdown one week ago. i'm really surprised at the lack of panic in the market when we went sub-$6k. all i can say is bitcoin loves to troll us traders. this thing can go either way right now. risk off! |
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If BitPay incorporates Litecoin, it's going to seriously challenge Bcash. I however don't know if he with his stake in BitPay can do something to prevent that from happening. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Litecoin function as base for small transactions.
somehow i doubt it'll happen, given how bitpay promotes bcash. their whole "network fee" (extra fee added = next-block fee, marked-up using their horrible copay algo, no segwit) for BTC is bad enough. but it gets worse. the way they show the payment options (BTC and bcash) side by side, with an absurd "network fee" for BTC and a perpetual $0.00 "network fee" for bcash is an obvious throwback to the big blocker narrative. they tried to charge me almost 0.0002 BTC above the invoice amount last time. didn't know roger had a stake in bitpay.....i guess that explains some shit. |
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i'm not surprised. the whole darknet market scene scares the crap out of me now. i wouldn't go anywhere near it after the police takeover of hansa last year. the NSA and friends have been tirelessly working to compromise TOR (and several busts show they can probably do it), and i'm sure there are more darknet honeypots lying in wait. stay safe out there. |
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why is Bitcoin moving down these days. Should we think its moving out of the market soon? pass out your veiws.
it's called a market cycle. one of the best explanations for this phenomenon was made by richard wyckoff. the figure entitled "wyckoff market cycle" gives the basic idea. applied to bitcoin: 2015-2016 was the accumulation phase. 2017 was the markup phase. 2018 is the markdown phase. no market goes up forever! |
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And guess who was spreading the news. Coindesk, the most popular crypto FUD network. They weren't confirming the news before publishing back in 2014 and they aren't doing it now. the news was legit. the story was covered by CNN a few days later. apparently merchants couldn't really do it until april 2015, though. and you also need to integrate with braintree (merchants can't just use the standard paypal interface). i'm guessing not many merchants actually accept BTC, but i'd be curious to see the numbers. |
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people are always trying to concoct these theories.  "We suspect that this implies the existence of a prior information"---it could have just been any old accumulation/distribution pattern. it could have been based on any prior information, or none at all. market makers use thick liquidity to put a lid (or a bottom) on markets all the time; ranges are profitable. they don't always succeed, but they usually do because they're just playing into natural supply/demand cycles. i think the lack of surge is better explained by the simple fact that we're in a bear market. good news is a reason to sell into bounces, and euphoria is short-lived. i'm guessing this guy wasn't trading the corn back in 2014. anyway one remember the paypal pump? probably not, because while price was expected to surge, everyone sold into the pump and price kept falling..... What was the Paypal pump? I've no memory of that at all. it's funny, cuz it sure seemed like a big deal among us traders at the time. in late september 2014, news emerged that paypal merchants would now be able to accept bitcoin. here's a picture of "the paypal pump":  literally a one day pump. a great excuse to sell. i was hoping the term would stick better than it did....can't seem to find any remnants of it on the interwebz. |
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people are always trying to concoct these theories. "We suspect that this implies the existence of a prior information"---it could have just been any old accumulation/distribution pattern. it could have been based on any prior information, or none at all. market makers use thick liquidity to put a lid (or a bottom) on markets all the time; ranges are profitable. they don't always succeed, but they usually do because they're just playing into natural supply/demand cycles. i think the lack of surge is better explained by the simple fact that we're in a bear market. good news is a reason to sell into bounces, and euphoria is short-lived. i'm guessing this guy wasn't trading the corn back in 2014. anyway one remember the paypal pump? probably not, because while price was expected to surge, everyone sold into the pump and price kept falling..... |
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We are in a bear but still there's a lot of reason why you should stay, and I listed some of those good things to stay calm and why you need to trust this market again.
1. Cryptocurrency can bounce back high in this current dump because of its own technology. the potential growth of this market is still 101%.
2. Bear market is normal, and if you look at any market after the dump there will always a rebound, where its possible to make a new all time high.
3. Now why some countries make bitcoin legal? Why some big personality invest in some project? Well, its simply because they saw a great potential for this cryptomarket, and you should too.
This may not help you to stay calm and stop panicking but try to imagine the market five years from now. Any thoughts why people should stay in this market?
"stay" in the market? what do you mean---like, hodl their BTC? you're never gonna stop newbies from selling the bottom. we've all done it. the get-rich-quickers get shaken outta the market and leave until the next bubble, and strong hands start accumulating the dumps. then the bull cycle eventually continues. rinse, repeat. i don't particularly care if people sell their coins when the bags get too heavy (can't take the pain). that's just markets being markets, no way around it. someone's gotta sell the bottom! it may as well be some of you guys. lol. |
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