[2018-07-04] 6 Million Bitcoin is Lost or Stolen, Should the Real Value of BTC

[BitcoinArsenal]

At the Building on Bitcoin conference this week, Jameson Lopp, former lead engineer at BitGo and engineer at CasaHODL, revealed that an estimated 4 million BTC are lost and 2 million BTC are stolen. Full article on CCN

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[figmentofmyass]

too bad there was no discussion of the data used. i'm curious how they distinguish between "lost" and "dormant" BTC, especially since the chainalysis research last year revealed similar numbers.

i suppose the actual number doesn't make much difference anyway. the spot market price is the result of the actual current circulating supply (market inefficiencies aside), not some static predetermined supply as with market cap.

[BitHodler]

i'm curious how they distinguish between "lost" and "dormant" BTC, especially since the chainalysis research last year revealed similar numbers.

As always only assumptions. I continue to cringe when these articles pop up. It's an easy way of generating an article that one way or another might spark a discussion which CCN benefits from in this case.

If we look at all the articles we have seen pop up this year, it surprises me that there isn't much left to write about, or at least, they make it seem like so with all the rehashing going on. No creativity and zero informativeness.

[Lucius]

That stolen BTC is not problem for total supply in any way, they only replaced the owners - so why they put stolen and losted coins in same basket? Lost BTC is not really a bad thing, even Satoshi say : "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone." Problem is in what way they came to these numbers, is there any research or this is pure speculation?

What I read about lost BTC is that this speculations are mostly based on monitoring BTC addresses with big amounts who are not moving for years, so conclusion is that probably those coins are losted. This may be true or not, some early adopters just still do not have the need to move coins.

If we know that 4 million BTC are lost 100%, then maybe price would be different in positive way - but I am sure that there will never be 21 million BTC out there because a certain percentage is definitely lost. Although there is a possibility that in future total supply may be increased, but I hope it will not come to that.

[1Referee]

Important thing these boobie articles don't take in mind is the fact that just because Bitcoins aren't moving on-chain, it doesn't mean they aren't being used or that they are lost.

I have bought plenty of physical Denarium coins this year that I funded with a certain amount of Bitcoin, all to be used in case there is no internet or electricity available, or maybe in case I just need the privacy that much. These physical coins can be spent thousands of times without anyone even noticing because nothing happens on-chain, and I'm pretty sure that I am not the only person with this form of use and way of thinking.

Exchanging private keys happens, we just don't know how often, and that's exactly the purpose of this utility; no one should ever know.

[cryptofonia]

I just wonder, is it possible that Satoshi Nakamoto's account has changed several times of its real owner? I guess this also must be taken into consideration if we speak about real value of BTC?

[richardsNY]

I just wonder, is it possible that Satoshi Nakamoto's account has changed several times of its real owner? I guess this also must be taken into consideration if we speak about real value of BTC?

What account are you talking about, be more clear. Satoshi itself, which isn't possible to prove it's actually him since he may not have been the miner responsible for generating the genesis block, won't have an impact other than negatively affecting the price of Bitcoin and BCash, and probably the price of other altcoins, but then in a positive way. People here are simple, if they see that Bitcoin for now isn't a safe haven, they'll park their capital in altcoins. I find it quite interesting that the 1,000,000 BTC that Satoshi is assumed to hold, has generated over 100,000 BTC in BCash alone. That's a pretty damn sweet dividend....

[darkangel11]

Important thing these boobie articles don't take in mind is the fact that just because Bitcoins aren't moving on-chain, it doesn't mean they aren't being used or that they are lost.

I have bought plenty of physical Denarium coins this year that I funded with a certain amount of Bitcoin, all to be used in case there is no internet or electricity available, or maybe in case I just need the privacy that much. These physical coins can be spent thousands of times without anyone even noticing because nothing happens on-chain, and I'm pretty sure that I am not the only person with this form of use and way of thinking.

Exchanging private keys happens, we just don't know how often, and that's exactly the purpose of this utility; no one should ever know.

Exactly! I have coins dating back to 2015 and haven't touched the addresses for 3 years. I guess my coins are by now somewhere in that "lost" group.
Makes me wonder, how long does it take before an address is considered lost with all its balance? 2 years? 3 years?
As for the stolen coins, why should we care? If the thieves get caught the coins will end up on some auction and return to circulation. If they don't get caught the coins will go through mixers and casinos and the result will be the same.

[Mahanton]

Important thing these boobie articles don't take in mind is the fact that just because Bitcoins aren't moving on-chain, it doesn't mean they aren't being used or that they are lost.

I have bought plenty of physical Denarium coins this year that I funded with a certain amount of Bitcoin, all to be used in case there is no internet or electricity available, or maybe in case I just need the privacy that much. These physical coins can be spent thousands of times without anyone even noticing because nothing happens on-chain, and I'm pretty sure that I am not the only person with this form of use and way of thinking.

Exchanging private keys happens, we just don't know how often, and that's exactly the purpose of this utility; no one should ever know.

Exactly! I have coins dating back to 2015 and haven't touched the addresses for 3 years. I guess my coins are by now somewhere in that "lost" group.
Makes me wonder, how long does it take before an address is considered lost with all its balance? 2 years? 3 years?
As for the stolen coins, why should we care? If the thieves get caught the coins will end up on some auction and return to circulation. If they don't get caught the coins will go through mixers and casinos and the result will be the same.

Why its really important for us to find out about lost coins and stolen ones? Theres no one can able to prove that those coins that aren't been moved are totally lost and as being said they might not really being moved intentionally and people do make such speculations or proclaims that those are lost ones. I doubt when bitcoins tends to hit up new ATH, one of those wallets would be active. 
About stolen coins it would be just still the same no matter what the process they would use up.

[figmentofmyass]

i'm curious how they distinguish between "lost" and "dormant" BTC, especially since the chainalysis research last year revealed similar numbers.

As always only assumptions. I continue to cringe when these articles pop up. It's an easy way of generating an article that one way or another might spark a discussion which CCN benefits from in this case.

it may have been intended as clickbait by CCN, but jameson lopp isn't nobody. he created statoshi.info and has always produced interesting and accurate network statistics (also known for being the lead engineer at bitgo). since he was the source for these stats, i was curious.

That stolen BTC is not problem for total supply in any way, they only replaced the owners - so why they put stolen and losted coins in same basket?

i'm guessing most of those coins pertain to high-profile hacks (like mt gox and bitfinex). the running assumption has been that it would be very difficult for the owners of these coins to cash out significant value given that the wallets are closely monitored by law enforcement.