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4561  Economy / Economics / Re: Krugman makes some good points on: March 25, 2013, 11:29:06 PM

Why? Why is it good to keep your savings in something which prime function is allowing commerce? Its better to have that money available for commerce than idling under your mattress.
Just put your savings in to something thats more suitable for it than credit money: Its not like you dont have a million things to choose from.


Make perfect sense, that is why we should spend fiat and save in bitcoin, you really don't want the same currency works both as a medium of saving and a medium of transaction

You want the medium of saving to be deflative to hold their value, and you want the medium of transaction to be inflative to stimulate spending and improve liquidity, a currency can not be both deflative and inflative at the same time

4562  Economy / Economics / Re: Where's the data for fundamental growth of Bitcoin? on: March 25, 2013, 04:55:16 PM
Avalon team is now the fundamental support of bitcoin economy, their latest batch 3 sale generated 50K bitcoin economic activity Grin
4563  Economy / Economics / Re: Why FED like bitcoin on: March 25, 2013, 04:44:01 PM
It's very difficult to understand what you say, especially given your poor grammar, but your basic premise is wrong. In fact the polar opposite is true, USD are actually liabilities of the FED, not assets.

Yes it is a liability they borrowed from the god, and they never need to pay back

Confused by all those accounting terms?  Although none of the economic books will tell you that, you maybe realize that there is a big difference in gold (you have to put your labor in to mine it out) and fiat money (FED just write number of 0s in their balance sheet), don't you feel that there must be something very wrong?  Wink
4564  Economy / Economics / Re: Why the FED likes bitcoin on: March 25, 2013, 03:26:50 PM
...
It has nothing to do with debt/credit at micro economy level, it's about money creation

Since 1971, each one dollar has one dollar worth of debt corresponding to it when it is created, no matter what kind of productivity/efficiency/wealth distribution a society has, the overall wealth count by dollar is always 0, if you count interest, it will be negative. You have 2 trillion us dollar in circulation, then you must have 2 trillion debt somewhere else in the society, actually the debt of government is 16.7 trillion, thanks to this money creation mechanism

Each bitcoin has no debt corresponding to it, that is the fundamental difference

What are you talking about? I know that describing credit money as "debt" is the latest fad, but seriously, a debt owed to whom? You seem to be really muddling up the issues here.


Debt owed to FED

FED create money out of thin air to buy assets/bonds from government and commercial banks, through this way government and commercial banks get money to spend/lend and so on... So for each dollar government/bank spend, there is a corresponding asset/bond located at FED

Notice the ownership here: If FED do not have the ownership of those created money, they can not buy assets with those money, since that violated even the basic rule of barter. So they must first rightfully claim the ownership of those money created out of thin air and then use these money to buy assets from government/banks

So, through printing money and spend them, FED has claimed equal amount worth of the assets and government debt

In the worst case scenario the FED can write off the debts, but they should not have the ownership of those debt from the beginning, because they should not have the ownership of those printed money either


I suspect that the reserve banks are keen to "get in on the action" because it could become a race between the Eurozone, US, and Russia, to popularise Bitcoin in their respective regions as much as possible. Of course the whole thing is ridiculous because Bitcoin is Open Source and people can create their own mini cash systems however they want. However, many people seem to believe in some kind of "first mover advantage", which makes Bitcoin superior because of the network effect and the existing support, which would otherwise have to be replicated. That's the game.

I agree that early adopter problem existed everywhere in this world, due to scarcity maybe, but at least it is honest money. If you compare some early adopters using CPU to generate millions of bitcoins with FED just adding some 0 in his balance sheet, at least they are not any worse than FED. And if the community agree, future bitcoin version could keep the coin supply as a constant, so that early adopter's benefit won't be that significant

And since it is worldwide, I don't think any single government can do a lot about it
4565  Economy / Economics / Re: Krugman makes some good points on: March 25, 2013, 02:55:21 PM
I hope I'm not alone in not buying this whole "deflation is bad" argument.  By your logic, Samsung should be broke because the SGS3 that used to retail for $800 is now available for $350.  And by the same logic, I will never buy a computer because in a month's time it will always be cheaper than buying today.

Thats not currency deflation. Cellphones and computers actually are getting cheaper to produce. Its called an increased productivity and if that is what is causing the price deflation; then there is nothing wrong with that, on the contrary. We had the same during the industrial revolution; we got massive increases in productivity causing price deflation. But also causing more production of actual physical wealth because we produced more goods more efficiently. As a society we actually got richer and the increased purchasing power of our money was just a reflection of that. But you cant reverse that. Making money more scarce doesnt cause an increase in productivity or production, let alone wealth- anymore more than printing more money can make everyone rich.

Do you really want to hold 10 cars in your home because they are physical goods? Or you prefer to hold $200,000 in your bank account?

The biggest demand in the world is money. Modern economic school always try to twist the people's mind to deny their nature understanding of money, tell them that eventually it is the consumption matters. Even Ben has this false illusion. That is totally wrong, money means a store of value and spending power, the flexibility of usage and transfer, security, many things you name it, it is the ultimate form of wealth after thousands of years test. Just look at california gold rush, because gold was found, cities were built, industries were established, the economy center of US shifted towards the west coast

But unfortunately in today's inflationary monetary system, the value of money is decreasing constantly, so people do not have a good medium for saving

And even worse, those money are all debt based, that dwarfs all those concerns about deflation/inflation etc... A money can be deflative or inflative, but it should not be debt based (you must work to generate that money), it is this simple fact that Krugman don't get it


4566  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Don't forget: There will probably be further batches from Avalon on: March 25, 2013, 01:54:29 PM
most likely after batch 3 they will built their own mining farm , not selling batch 4.

I guess this could be the future of bitcoin, there will be many companies competing for the mining operation with petahash installations, and they seldom sell to public, only investors

Of course to reach that stage, bitcoin price will need to break $10K, at least a couple of years down the road

And, if the price of bitcoin crashed due to some software problem, then all these companies will go bust holding lots of cheap coins, so they might still consider sell part of their hardware in exchange of fiat currency
4567  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Don't forget: There will probably be further batches from Avalon on: March 25, 2013, 12:18:16 AM
This is a very special occasion caused by BFL's delay, almost like a lottery. Those who missed the BFL annoncement in June/July and managed to grab some Avalon in October unexpectedly becomes the most benefited Cheesy

On the other hand, those mining professionals who closely followed every step of BFL's ASIC offering from the very first day has yet to see some concret test results, big test for tolerance  Grin
4568  Economy / Economics / Re: Why the FED likes bitcoin on: March 24, 2013, 08:41:04 PM

First of all, debt/credit created in the private sector (that includes mortgages, credit card debt, margin debt, you name it) is independent of whether the dollar is backed by gold or not. We had a credit explosion in the 1920's when the US$ was still in the gold standard. We've had another one starting in the 80's and peaked in 2007, when the US$ is not in the gold standard. In both cases, the vast majority of the debt is private sector debt. This is important because given that the private sector doesn't have access to the printing press it means that the only way to pay it back is if (as you pointed out) income goes up substantially or if assets purchased with this debt (such as houses or stocks) increase in value, so that they can be sold to pay back the debt. Given that they actually need to be SOLD in order to pay back that debt, it all goes back to actual income increasing (otherwise, by the very act of selling them the price goes down so the debt remains high as a % of assets' value). We saw an example of this in 2008.



It has nothing to do with debt/credit at micro economy level, it's about money creation

Since 1971, each one dollar has one dollar worth of debt corresponding to it when it is created, no matter what kind of productivity/efficiency/wealth distribution a society has, the overall wealth count by dollar is always 0, if you count interest, it will be negative. You have 2 trillion us dollar in circulation, then you must have 2 trillion debt somewhere else in the society, actually the debt of government is 16.7 trillion, thanks to this money creation mechanism

Each bitcoin has no debt corresponding to it, that is the fundamental difference
4569  Economy / Economics / Re: How Madoff Works / How Banking Works on: March 24, 2013, 08:10:48 PM

Whether people realise it or not, when you "deposit" money with a bank, you are *lending* it to the bank. You accept *counterparty risk* in exchange for the possibility of interest and the convenience of the services the bank provides.  You accept that a bank's raison d'etre is maturity transformation: borrowing short to lend long. You accept that this exposes them to liquidity risk and you, in turn, to the consequences of a run should the bank lose the confidence of its lenders.


Actually most of the people do not realise this, and that's the reason once more and more people realized this, they won't trust banks any more

But even put your cash under matress won't solve the root of the problem, which is debt based money creation
4570  Economy / Economics / Re: Krugman makes some good points on: March 24, 2013, 07:51:30 PM

Borrow 1 BTC, and pay back 1.1BTC can work over any time.


Where is that 0.1 BTC coming from?

In the fiat world, the way to make this happen is issue more and more money to pay back the previous interest, but in bitcoin world, the total number of money supply is fixed, paying back more than you borrowed simply means that interest must come from someone else's pocket  Wink

Interest is a perfectly valid way of making money with a currency!
The 0.1btc comes from the person who borrowed it, just like in the old days of banking!

Even in the old days of banking, where money is backed by gold, total amount of gold is not limited, so you can dig out some gold each year to pay the interest

In fiat system, added money supply simply means added debt, and added debt will have to be paid back later, together with their interest, it is a snowball effect
4571  Economy / Economics / Re: Krugman makes some good points on: March 24, 2013, 03:03:31 AM

Borrow 1 BTC, and pay back 1.1BTC can work over any time.


Where is that 0.1 BTC coming from?

In the fiat world, the way to make this happen is issue more and more money to pay back the previous interest, but in bitcoin world, the total number of money supply is fixed, paying back more than you borrowed simply means that interest must come from someone else's pocket  Wink
4572  Economy / Economics / Re: Why the FED likes bitcoin on: March 23, 2013, 10:48:37 PM

But we are nowhere near this happening. Because it's so obvious, I doubt anyone would ever extend credit on BTC, so in that sense you are right, a debt crisis will not happen in bitcoinland.


Yes, that's the point, and it is not the only reason. If you closely study how today's fiat money are created, you will notice the fundamental difference between a debt based money (fiat money) and honest money (gold/silver/bitcoin)

Before 1971, US dollar is 40% backed by gold, so in certain degree fiat money is not debt based, but after that backing is removed, all new created money are backed by future debt. After 40 years, it has grown into a huge mountain there is just no hope to pay back that amout of debt without significant increase in income

But bition might be able to help pay back that debt, the only thing it requires is its value grow to a scale close to the current debt
4573  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Compensating miners on the wrong side of The Big Fork on: March 23, 2013, 07:24:48 PM
By compatible the standard default is "backward compatible", include the old behavior

It is lucky that this time the fault is in BDB, what if the fault is located in levelDB?

Basically at the time of accident you had 4 choice:

0.8 is ok, fall back to pre-0.7 won't cause problem since it works already
0.8 is ok, force others to upgrade to 0.8 will solve the problem
0.8 is buggy, force others to upgrade to 0.8 will cause more problem
0.8 is buggy, fall back to pre-0.7 won't cause problem since it works already

If you fall back to 0.7, you have 100% chance to make it work again, and if you forward to 0.8, you have 50% (or other) chance to end up in a mess, it is possible that levelDB accepted some thing that it should not accept, who can be sure in advance, google is not god



4574  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [20000 GH] BTC Guild - PPS/PPLNS with TxFees, Stratum+Vardiff ASIC Tested on: March 23, 2013, 02:26:15 PM
bitcoind on the payout server crashed.  This server is also used for identifying blocks and recording them.  bitcoind is being brought back up.  I am going to have to manually edit which shifts the blocks are applied to.  Everything should be fixed shortly.

You should hire some one in china to look after your pool when you are asleep  Smiley
4575  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: What happened with BTC Guild? on: March 23, 2013, 02:01:37 PM
Sorry, I think that is their PPLNS system had some error, the blockchain.info still shows they are generating blocks, but 44% is too dangerous in my view, I'm moving to other pools
4576  Bitcoin / Mining / What happened with BTC Guild? on: March 23, 2013, 01:56:10 PM
Seems they are having close to 44% of network hasing power while they have not mined even a block since 7 hours ago  Huh Huh

4577  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [20000 GH] BTC Guild - PPS/PPLNS with TxFees, Stratum+Vardiff ASIC Tested on: March 23, 2013, 01:45:33 PM
Something went wrong in PPLNS calculation, but blockchain.info still show their blocks...
4578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Things are happening behind closed doors, very important for Bitcoin things. on: March 23, 2013, 12:11:16 PM
My best guess is that AMD will start to mass produce ASIC devices, look at their stock price... this is their only chance to return to profit
4579  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [AVALON] - I got my ASIC Thread (Batch #1) on: March 22, 2013, 09:07:29 PM
I'm thinking to move everything outside of the box, just like an open GPU mining rig, and use an external blow fan to effectively cool all those huge heat sinks when summer arrived
Do not do that.You need a air pressure + flow inside the box in order to cool down the ASICS
 

The case need air pressure because the PSU currently do not get enough airflow, that's also the reason they don't recommend you to install a exhaust fan since it further decreases air pressure for the PSU, but if PSU can get cold air when it is seperated from other components, it will be much more healthy

For the cooling of ASICs, I think a 200mm turbo blow fan will provide much more airflow then those 120MM fans

Anyone know how to fix the avalon fan speed at a constant rate? I think current variable fan speed control sometimes cause cgminer to restart
4580  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [AVALON] - I got my ASIC Thread (Batch #1) on: March 22, 2013, 05:15:41 PM
I'm thinking to move everything outside of the box, just like an open GPU mining rig, and use an external blow fan to effectively cool all those huge heat sinks when summer arrived
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