I think they have some similarities, I did not have the time to think it over 

Which phase of emotional cycle are we in  

This chart only applies to fiat money driven bubbles, where peak is the highest interest rate and tight monetary policy, and the valley is the lowest interest rate and loose monetary policy

Bitcoin is a world currency, any single central bank can not shape such a price chart, only some internal problems of bitcoin itself could affect its price development

The reason all of the previous bubbles burst:

1. Increased supply entering the market later when demand has been fulfilled
2. FED tighten the money supply

For bitcoin, non of these prerequisites exist.
1 is not possible in nearest 4 years
2 is not possible before 2015

And even FED tightens, it might not have any effect, since other currencies will chase bitcoin anyway

I have noticed, any system, no matter how distributed it is from the beginning, it will eventually centralize, and when it died, it will be distributed again, a little bit like chemical reaction -- concentration and dissipation

Just a simple asumption that no other ASICs showed up in 2-3 months time frame. Avalon has a short time window where they dominate the retail market, during this period they could have a good ROI time. If BFL can deliver, their pricing is significantly more attractive

If US regulate bitcoin more, then bitcoin will flourish in other countries that welcome the currency, and they might miss the best chance to escape that debt spiral with a type of honest money

Avalon will deliver up to 300+600+1000=1900 units , that is 125TH, and there are 3600 coins per day, remove the existing 25TH and upcoming 60T of ASICminer hash power, each avalon's return is around 1.2 BTC per day when all the machines are deployed, less than 90 days ROI is guaranteed even for the last buyer

Although BFL remained as a big variable, they might not be able to deliver in large scale before June

My experience is that in 1-2 years VRM will die before GPU dies

Actually I'm worrying about this summer the fiat money system will run into big trouble, where they could no longer solve the economy problem with more and more money printing and higher and higher debt, the break of confidence at top level is just a matter of time

If that happened, the price of bitcoin will be just like bankers add new money with lots of 0s

Makes some sense!

I suppose that most of the ASIC miners today are holding their coins (they are the true supporters of bitcoin and foresee a price of at least $1K), this is enough to create a shortage of available bitcoin at exchanges, and ASIC companies are also bitcoin enthusiast, they won't sell all of their earned coins to pay back their bill either, so generally the spending is always much less than income in bitcoin's perspective

Avalon team ask for 88 BTC for their mining rig, and they only accept BTC payment. In order to get those BTC, people who do not have so much BTC will have to buy from exchage, and this pushed the exchange price up, and Avalon team will receive at least 88000 BTC in sale

This proved my theory before: A business who only accept BTC payment will become the strong support for BTC exchange price, if their products are highly demanded

But this case is a little bit special, people buying the avalon machine are hoping for a quick ROI, and the return is BTC. Asic mining equipment manufacturing maybe is the only business in BTC economy that can generate such a high return that attract so many investors

Then here is the question: If those ASIC mining companies are continuously raise the price of their mining rig for each new generation products, and they only accept BTC, then the BTC price will continously rise due to shrinking supply of BTC, and the rising price of BTC will create higher and higher demand for ASIC mining equipment.....all self sustained loop, is this long term sustainable? For how long?

45cm X 39cm X 17cm

17.72" X 15.35" X 6.69"

What's the difference with existing implementation: By install a copy of game you create an online account, you have to charge the account to play

Have you first tried to disable that cgminer-monitor script or increase the check interval and see what will happen?

I also had at least one restart per day, I reduced the check frequency from 5 to 15, and it is stable since then

System->scheduled tasks
*/15 *  *   *   *     /usr/bin/cgminer-monitor

Nice statement! Batch 1 and Batch 2 orderers are risk takers, now there are much less risk

And the interesting thing is, Avalon only accepting BTC caused a self-driven market demand for BTC, this is exactly lots of BTC true believers hoped: A BTC economy which is less related on exchange price. This is a totally new phenomenon, how to evaluate such a move's effect?

It's a bit like a chinese company make a nice product that everyone on the planet want , but they only accept chinese RMB, so the only option for outsiders is to exchange their currency for RMB, and that will strengthen the RMB's exchange rate (of course the RMB exchange rate is fixed by chinese government, this is not a good example, but you get the idea...)

I tried difficulty 64, utility dropped to 19, and then difficulty 32, utility back to 32, so I guess it is not setting related

Before, when I run a 5970 rig, when I started to get a 10% of Hardware Errors in cgminer, that GPU would die in a month, possibly VRM failure, so I don't know in this case what this large error indicate

It is nice that AVALON is very modulized, even one of the miner totally toasted, it will only affect 1/24 of hash power

Check this:

price increased to $15,000 from $1500 month ago, crazy 

I think mostly related to network difficulty, market participants are now almost certain that ASIC mining equipment will reach end user in large scale and the difficulty will skyrocketing. Historically difficulty and price have close relationship