Bitcoin bubble crash @ 100$ Summer of 2013?

[johnyj]

I will laugh when you are here[/center]

This chart only applies to fiat money driven bubbles, where peak is the highest interest rate and tight monetary policy, and the valley is the lowest interest rate and loose monetary policy

Bitcoin is a world currency, any single central bank can not shape such a price chart, only some internal problems of bitcoin itself could affect its price development

[1714856771]

1714856771

[1714856771]

1714856771

[Sage]

Since new investors outside the Bitcoin community are entering just now

do you have any proof whit numbers and dates ?

Very, very good point!  Other then the recent news stories on EU investors moving to Bitcoin because of Banksters theft of their accounts.

A very valuable metric would be something that would tell me the percentage of first-time investors in the latest Bitcoin buys.

Anyone know if such a metric is available or possible?

[Sage]

I will laugh when you are here[/center]

This chart only applies to fiat money driven bubbles, where peak is the highest interest rate and tight monetary policy, and the valley is the lowest interest rate and loose monetary policy

Bitcoin is a world currency, any single central bank can not shape such a price chart, only some internal problems of bitcoin itself could affect its price development

Sorry, but history would indicate otherwise.   Every bubble be it fiat driven or not follows this same cycle.  This cycle can certainly be fueled by interest rate manipulation, but is ultimately driven by emotion.

There have been, and will continue to be bubbles with Bitcoin along the way (and it is immune from interest rate manipulations).

Human nature simply does not change.

[cbeast]

I am still waiting for Berkshire-Hathaway BRK.A to crash down to a hundred bucks.

[BitPirate]

I will laugh when you are here[/center]

You can laugh if you like, but I won't sell. I'm getting used to the roller-coaster ride.

The reason I sound so optimistic is because this speculation sub-forum is dangerous. ;-)

[RationalSpeculator]

If Bitcoin really becomes the no 1 internet payment solution for millions of people it means bitcoin should be worth as much as the money supply of a banana republic.
Maybe something like 10 billion dollars = 500$/BTC.

Why banana republic? If bitcoin becomes an important currency then valuation of not 10 but 1000 billion dollar is appropriate considering USD currency in circulation is valued at 6000 billion, gold in circulation is valued at 10,000 billion. And other fiat like euro, cad, etc is also valued at 20,000 billion. Bitcoin will replace at least 10% of that currency, that means a valuation of 3600 billion, maybe already in 10 years. But let's say it's only 1000 billion in 10 years, that's replacing 3% of the existing fiat currency and gold. A reasonable estimate. This means 1000 billion USD market cap / 21 million coins = 50,000 USD per bitcoin. Coming from $70 today that means a total increase of 10,000% or 1,000% per year on average. Let's reduce that to 500% per year on average. That's what it also has been since it started trading in 2010, 450% on average.

[johnyj]

Sorry, but history would indicate otherwise.   Every bubble be it fiat driven or not follows this same cycle.  This cycle can certainly be fueled by interest rate manipulation, but is ultimately driven by emotion.

There have been, and will continue to be bubbles with Bitcoin along the way (and it is immune from interest rate manipulations).

Human nature simply does not change.

Which phase of emotional cycle are we in  

[rudrigorc2]

Sorry, but history would indicate otherwise.   Every bubble be it fiat driven or not follows this same cycle.  This cycle can certainly be fueled by interest rate manipulation, but is ultimately driven by emotion.

There have been, and will continue to be bubbles with Bitcoin along the way (and it is immune from interest rate manipulations).

Human nature simply does not change.

Which phase of emotional cycle are we in  

wow that looks like a USD buble

[chriswen]

I have no money in bitcoin.

It looks like its increasing right now.  Staying at the top of the bollinger band.

But, yeah you need to wait for the right psychological conditions before it can crash.  It will only crash if people lose confidence in the coin.  It won't crash if people are thinking, lets get cheap coin.  It'll go up till people will stop thinking it's a bubble feeling euphoric, then it'll crash.  Currently, more money is coming in.  Also, people have not had enough time to panic.

[S3052]

If history repeats itself Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up in the sky and make an ATH at 100$ for a day and crash 80% in the summer of 2013.

Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.

The early ASIC-miners got a huge profit now and it seems that they just hord everything they mine, so when they begin to sell the chain reaction will give us a bottom to levels before  the 2013-rally started.

What do you think?

implying that the same thing happens again in a  row is the most fundamental mistake.
instead, most often the second time will be very different from the first time.

it is not so easy to predict the market, and this is why it requires constant analyses all the time. it would be too easy otherwise to make money consistently (unfortunately, as this would be quite cool)

[labestiol]

Since new investors outside the Bitcoin community are entering just now

do you have any proof whit numbers and dates ?

What about 3-4k users waiting for account verification on MtGox ?

[Piper67]

Sorry, but history would indicate otherwise.   Every bubble be it fiat driven or not follows this same cycle.  This cycle can certainly be fueled by interest rate manipulation, but is ultimately driven by emotion.

There have been, and will continue to be bubbles with Bitcoin along the way (and it is immune from interest rate manipulations).

Human nature simply does not change.

Which phase of emotional cycle are we in  

wow that looks like a USD buble

Put up a chart of population growth over the last thousand years or so... we must be in a population bubble. Watch out!

[rudrigorc2]

Sorry, but history would indicate otherwise.   Every bubble be it fiat driven or not follows this same cycle.  This cycle can certainly be fueled by interest rate manipulation, but is ultimately driven by emotion.

There have been, and will continue to be bubbles with Bitcoin along the way (and it is immune from interest rate manipulations).

Human nature simply does not change.

Which phase of emotional cycle are we in  

wow that looks like a USD buble

Put up a chart of population growth over the last thousand years or so... we must be in a population bubble. Watch out!

I wouldnt doubt that either

[Piper67]

Sorry, but history would indicate otherwise.   Every bubble be it fiat driven or not follows this same cycle.  This cycle can certainly be fueled by interest rate manipulation, but is ultimately driven by emotion.

There have been, and will continue to be bubbles with Bitcoin along the way (and it is immune from interest rate manipulations).

Human nature simply does not change.

Which phase of emotional cycle are we in  

wow that looks like a USD buble

Put up a chart of population growth over the last thousand years or so... we must be in a population bubble. Watch out!

I wouldnt doubt that either

Cool, now put up a chart that shows population growth from the year 1000 to the year 1900... bubble... bubble about to pop... watch out!


Smartasses who can't figure out scale are smartasses 

[Ozymandias]

Put up a chart of population growth over the last thousand years or so... we must be in a population bubble. Watch out!

Wouldn't population growth ACTUALLY be a bubble? If we hit the carrying capacity of Earth (with respect to necessary-for-survival natural resources) before we achieve post-scarcity, wouldn't the population drop significantly AKA "bubble pop" as hunger, disease, and fighting for increasingly scarce resources increases?

[Piper67]

Put up a chart of population growth over the last thousand years or so... we must be in a population bubble. Watch out!

Wouldn't population growth ACTUALLY be a bubble? If we hit the carrying capacity of Earth (with respect to necessary-for-survival natural resources) before we achieve post-scarcity, wouldn't the population drop significantly AKA "bubble pop" as hunger, disease, and fighting for increasingly scarce resources increases?

Yes, unless we start exporting humans to other planets... but then you could argue the same thing about the solar system, until we start exporting humans to other galaxies... but then you could argue the same thing about the universe.

My point is that a stupid chart that shows only growth shows you ABSOLUTELY nothing, absent the context in which that growth is taking place. That's the mistake made by all the chartists.

You could've called a bubble about to pop to the growth in human population in any 500 year period for roughly the last 10 - 15 thousand years. If you just focus in narrowly on THAT PARTICULAR 500 year period, but absent the larger context of where that growth is taking place, those charts are meaningless.

So are these.

[S3052]

Put up a chart of population growth over the last thousand years or so... we must be in a population bubble. Watch out!

Wouldn't population growth ACTUALLY be a bubble? If we hit the carrying capacity of Earth (with respect to necessary-for-survival natural resources) before we achieve post-scarcity, wouldn't the population drop significantly AKA "bubble pop" as hunger, disease, and fighting for increasingly scarce resources increases?

Yes, unless we start exporting humans to other planets... but then you could argue the same thing about the solar system, until we start exporting humans to other galaxies... but then you could argue the same thing about the universe.

My point is that a stupid chart that shows only growth shows you ABSOLUTELY nothing, absent the context in which that growth is taking place. That's the mistake made by all the chartists.

You could've called a bubble about to pop to the growth in human population in any 500 year period for roughly the last 10 - 15 thousand years. If you just focus in narrowly on THAT PARTICULAR 500 year period, but absent the larger context of where that growth is taking place, those charts are meaningless.

So are these.

+1

this is why when analyzing charts of financial markets, you always look at the big, long term picture first

[rudrigorc2]

Put up a chart of population growth over the last thousand years or so... we must be in a population bubble. Watch out!

Wouldn't population growth ACTUALLY be a bubble? If we hit the carrying capacity of Earth (with respect to necessary-for-survival natural resources) before we achieve post-scarcity, wouldn't the population drop significantly AKA "bubble pop" as hunger, disease, and fighting for increasingly scarce resources increases?

Yes, unless we start exporting humans to other planets... but then you could argue the same thing about the solar system, until we start exporting humans to other galaxies... but then you could argue the same thing about the universe.

My point is that a stupid chart that shows only growth shows you ABSOLUTELY nothing, absent the context in which that growth is taking place. That's the mistake made by all the chartists.

You could've called a bubble about to pop to the growth in human population in any 500 year period for roughly the last 10 - 15 thousand years. If you just focus in narrowly on THAT PARTICULAR 500 year period, but absent the larger context of where that growth is taking place, those charts are meaningless.

So are these.

I guess any chart is like a painting then. Does not show nothing unless you already know what to see.

[01BTC10]

If history repeats itself Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up in the sky and make an ATH at 100$ for a day and crash 80% in the summer of 2013.

Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.

The early ASIC-miners got a huge profit now and it seems that they just hord everything they mine, so when they begin to sell the chain reaction will give us a bottom to levels before  the 2013-rally started.

What do you think?

This doesn't make sense. Past history is not an indication of future performance. So much variables changed since June 2011. You could take all your numbers and put a random one and it would be as much precise. Try to understand why the price crashed in 2011 and what changed since then. I don't say it won't crash but history is not likely to repeat itself.

[Beta-coiner1]

On localbitcoins there is an individual currently willing to pay 100 already.