[Farrago of non sequiturs and gibberish] If you think Obama somehow invented the concept, you're literally too fucking retarded to talk to. If you think he gives a shit about it, you're even more retarded. You are apparently too retarded to understand that "net neutrality" existed as a natural result of the free market and Obama is preaching that we need government to sustain or implement (regulate) the concept, which is a fucking lie and how they will actually destroy the concept. Those who are bitching about not having net access in their communities are either wanting some subsidy from the government to drive service to their uneconomic rural location or their community is already suffering from lack of competition due to over regulation and regulatory capture by the vested interests. The free market did not fail to provide "net neutrality". Adding more government regulation only makes it worse! You pontificate about shit which you don't know about, because ... well let the progenitor of the term "open source" explain it to you: Those who can’t build, talkThose who can’t build, talk
Posted on 2011-07-28 by Eric Raymond
One of the side-effects of using Google+ is that I’m getting exposed to a kind of writing I usually avoid – ponderous divagations on how the Internet should be and the meaning of it all written by people who’ve never gotten their hands dirty actually making it work. No, I’m not talking about users – I don’t mind listening to those. I’m talking about punditry about the Internet, especially the kind full of grand prescriptive visions. The more I see of this, the more it irritates the crap out of me. But I’m not in the habit of writing in public about merely personal complaints; there’s a broader cultural problem here that needs to be aired. Eric like myself was actually active in building the internet: Btw, Eric apparently idols Donald Knuth (I also owned and skimmed some of his books): Shameless name-droppingDouble Vision
You fucking Communists and Socialists are God Damn fucking plague on this earth.
Don't be so mad comrade. You need us commies, apparently we are the last defenders of your digital rights. Come now, ve drink some wadka.  I am an expert and highly accomplished programmer, so I don't need you to protect my digital rights, because I protect them with my own code. The protections have never come from the government—they (and you complicit socialists) only steal and destroy. The protections have always come from technological innovations, of which I am working now on making the government intervention impotent. Get off my fucking lawn. |
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Bitcoin is rallying similar to how gold and silver did before they again moved down to lower lows. All "private assets" will continue to make lower highs and lower lows until the turn in the ECM on 2015.75. The prior bounce in Bitcoin was to $666. It won't make it that high this time before turning down again to make lower lows and eventually bottom at or below $200. These are sucker's rallies for those who don't understand the trend in place until 2015.75.
Maybe, but check out the current premium on gold that you can hold (and silver too). Your forecast could well be right, but trading in this environment is crazy (for who's not a cabal insider), so imho better sit tight and be right holding to quality, PM and BTC included. Sorry but I have to tell you that you are delusional. There is no cabal that has the entire game rigged where analysis no longer works. Read Armstrong so you stop losing your shirt and learn how the trends of international capital flows work. He apparently read my recent summaries of his writing and realized that he doesn't summarize his model well for novices, because he wrote this today: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/14/the-future-explained-what-is-unfolding-the-connections-in-the-global-economy/Also see what I wrote before about the elite don't control everything:
Armstrong correctly explains that the elite are not suppressing the precious metals. I had posted upthread a long explanation that the elite are not powerful enough to control the chaos in nature, rather what they do is to align themselves with creative destruction and experiment to find ways to achieve their goals of more globalized economies-of-scale for their multi-national corporations and political capture. Armstrong is correct about the money center banks being very short-term fraud oriented. The elite who sit above the money center banks (Armstrong doesn't agree) could not further their aims for creative destruction symbiosis by trying to entirely suppress the precious metal prices. Fiat and futures markets on precious metals have sustained because the broad populace doesn't then want to use physical metal, but that is not really a manipulation rather it is what society has chosen. The way the elite plan to obtain their goals for a global fiat is by pumping the world full of debt as they have done and then IMF will rush in with a new monetary system solution after 2024. The chaos from 2016 to 2024 will burn the confidence in the nation-states to the ground. This I argue was by-design of the long-term thinking elite such as Rothschild et al. They have aligned themselves with this natural cycle of chaos and the natural tendency of society towards socialism failure and debt. Armstrong has apparently unlocked the math of the natural cycles. Apparently Pi is the basis. There is no great premium on bullion if you know where to buy. I was buying 1000oz bars near to spot when silver was $9 and minting generic 1oz rounds (which were in short supply at that time): http://www.fidelitrade.com/home/products-pricesThe following company can help you facilitate delivery from Fidelitrade (even if you are not located in the USA): http://www.fsdepository.com/Vault/Be very careful with gold dealers and never send them too large of a trade: http://www.coinweek.com/bullion-report/tulving-company-collapse/http://web.archive.org/web/20140106153016/http://tulving.com/You should be accumulating some bullion but it should not be more than about 10% of your net worth. As Armstrong says, even bullion won't help you if we go into a severe Mad Max scenario then ONLY food becomes money. Unless you are short-term trader (buying the dips and selling the rallies), the bulk of your money between now and 2015.75 (assuming you don't have another investment) should be invested in the DJIA or S&P500 (perhaps waiting for a near-term correction first), because other private assets are trending to lower highs and lower lows until then. For those who are too heavily invested in bullion or Bitcoin, sell the rallies to lighten up and move the proceeds into the USA stock market until 2015.75. As for crypto-currency, sell Bitcoin into rallies and buy it again on extreme dips, wash and repeat until 2015.75. Also keep your eye out for a crypto-currency that changes every thing and challenges Bitcoin in terms of being actually widely mined and widely used by regular folks. If you see such a crypto-currency buy it regardless of the trend to 2015.75, because this would be a counter-trend phenomenon if it happens. |
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Those who want Obama's 'net neutrality' bullshit, will end up with this: http://www.coindesk.com/day-reckoning-dark-markets-hundreds-illicit-domains/ ^^^ Thanks for posting that. That is exactly what I have been saying about it all along. This net neutrality is not and never has been about protecting the average user's rights. It is simply about the government gaining control so that it can monitor and censor (and prosecute) what we say and do on what used to be a free internet.
I don't know where you are getting your information. Net-neutrality is exactly the opposite of what you are saying. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_neutralityBullshit! You don't have a fucking clue. ... probably while you were still shitting your diapers. It was essentially built into the protocols at the base level. You really have no clue what you're talking about. Get off my lawn kiddie. I was coding the world's first WYSIWYG full featured, commercial graphical word processor (Neocept's Word Up) in the mid-1980s. There was never an overlord requiring net neutrality. The interoperability of the net exists because it is in every providers incentive to join the larger scale of the homogeneous internet. The internet killed America Online's proprietary walled garden model without any fucking regulation you clueless wannabe. The internet continues to power past walled garden promulgators such as Apple Computer. What this political bullshit "Net Neutrality" means is telling you that we need regulation to accomplish what the free market has already done. And this is a political lie used to sucker you into getting exactly opposite of what the free market has been providing you. You fucking Communists and Socialists are God Damn fucking plague on this earth. Be Gone! Net neutrality is how the Internet functioned [for] long... Correct. |
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Those who want Obama's 'net neutrality' bullshit, will end up with this: http://www.coindesk.com/day-reckoning-dark-markets-hundreds-illicit-domains/^^^ Thanks for posting that. That is exactly what I have been saying about it all along. This net neutrality is not and never has been about protecting the average user's rights. It is simply about the government gaining control so that it can monitor and censor (and prosecute) what we say and do on what used to be a free internet.
I don't know where you are getting your information. Net-neutrality is exactly the opposite of what you are saying. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_neutralityBullshit! You don't have a fucking clue. ... probably while you were still shitting your diapers. It was essentially built into the protocols at the base level. You really have no clue what you're talking about. Get off my lawn kiddie. I was coding the world's first WYSIWYG full featured, commercial graphical word processor (Neocept's Word Up) in the mid-1980s. There was never an overlord requiring net neutrality. The interoperability of the net exists because it is in every providers incentive to join the larger scale of the homogeneous internet. The internet killed America Online's proprietary walled garden model without any fucking regulation you clueless wannabe. The internet continues to power past walled garden promulgators such as Apple Computer. What this political bullshit "Net Neutrality" means is telling you that we need regulation to accomplish what the free market has already done. And this is a political lie used to sucker you into getting exactly opposite of what the free market has been providing you. You fucking Communists and Socialists are God Damn fucking plague on this earth. Be Gone! Net neutrality is how the Internet functioned [for] long... Correct. |
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Bitcoin still has another 11 months to hit a low of $150 if we look at Armstrongs ECM model (publc vs private waves)
AnonyMint (aka UnunoctiumTesticles and many other names) claimed $150 by the end of this year, not Armstrong. I don't even know what Armstrong's position on bitcoin is. You are a fucking liar. Try to quote me in full context. I never claimed $150 by the end of the year, rather I am claiming a low in all Private assets before 2015.75 (i.e. Oct. 2015), which is Armstrong's ECM model. I know Anonymint thinks it's a POS, because of some ideas he came up with on how to attack and destroy it. Ideas that bitcoin devs and many others explained would not work, even show a lack of understanding of how bitcoin actually works, but which Anonymint stuck to as the absolute truth no matter what.
I will not waste my time correcting your (loser ass) lies and imbecile level of reading comprehension. Am I understanding it correctly that according to the ECM the dollar will continue to rally until at least a couple of years after 2015.75? Also in accordance with the coming bull market in equity?
I'm quite fine with lower lows, as that can give some time to accumulate a bit. mil·len·ni·um məˈlenēəm/ noun plural noun: millennia 1. a period of a thousand years, especially when calculated from the traditional date of the birth of Christ. The global ECM turns down every 8.6 years (1 millennia or 1000 days x Pi) so it last peaked in 2007.15, which is when the pin event pricked the sub-prime real estate crisis (early stage of the Sovereign Debt Bubble). We are in a Private Wave cycle (alternates every 51.6 years, i.e. 6 cycles x 8.6) so every peak can be another major step towards moving towards maximum move to Private assets by 2032. So in 2015.75 we can expect the pin to be pricked on the next wave of massive Public (Sovereign nation) bonds contaion. Thus from 2011.45 until 2015.75, we've had a reprieve from the move to Private assets while the pressure cooker has been building on the Sovereign bond collapse coming, e.g. Mario Gaghi ECB head took many actions to buy time and load that pressure cooker to the maximum. The dollar has been strengthening a bit since we turned the corner mid-way though this 8.6 cycle in 2011.45, and should continue to increase as rest of the world is collapsing and capital is flowing back (egressing) from the periphery markets back to the reserve currency market (dollar). As the move to Private assets accelerates anew after 2015.75 when the Sovereign Debt Big Bang pin is pricked, the likely beneficiary is also the dollar based stock market, because the Private companies will be seen as a mainstream Private asset (alternative to collapsing Public bonds). Thus the dollar may strengthen along with other Private assets, such as gold, real estate, collectibles, tangible assets, and crypto-currencies. ------------------------------------------------------ Bitcointalk.org is down, so I will post this there later... Those who want Obama's 'net neutrality' bullshit, will end up with this: http://www.coindesk.com/day-reckoning-dark-markets-hundreds-illicit-domains/The mining stocks have broken down through support, thus we are probably moving lower: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/13/setting-the-stage-for-the-collapse-in-metals-gold-stocks/ Bitcoin is rallying similar to how gold and silver did before they again moved down to lower lows. All "private assets" will continue to make lower highs and lower lows until the turn in the ECM on 2015.75. The prior bounce in Bitcoin was to $666. It won't make it that high this time before turning down again to make lower lows and eventually bottom at or below $200. These are sucker's rallies for those who don't understand the trend in place until 2015.75. |
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There was an editorial in the WSJ today that said what obama is proposing would essentially cause ISPs to become utilities and would stifle competition.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/12/obama-wants-to-now-fully-regulate-the-internet-as-a-public-utility/Believe it or not, Obama wants to fully regulate the internet – EVERYTHING right down to content!. Yes you read it correctly. He wants to create the effective Department of the Internet under the FCC.
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Good sources state clearly that this will be a very dangerous step toward both taxation and censorship. The FCC function is to REGULATE radio and TV. They have to apply to the FCC for licenses. Why anyone would imagine that the FCC will regulate with no attached costs is beyond belief. Obama is one nasty communist and he has supported the NSA 150%.
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The ONLY way for the FCC can ensure traffic is “neutral” is to officially monitor the flow of traffic. That means they will have to be monitoring stations everywhere. This is a back-door to the NSA for starters. ALL emails will have to flow through the government fingers. Send money to someone by Western Union online and they will hand that info to the IRS. If the receiver did not declare it, here they come. The government will have 100% access to absolutely everything from your emails and photos to your credit cards and bank accounts.
This is just the beginning. The FCC will monitor CONTENT as well to ensure neutrality. What they do on radio and TV will be applied to the internet. The Supreme Court struck down a law and created the right to privacy when Connecticut saw fit to outlaw condoms for married people. The Supreme Court realized how does one enforce such a regulation without entering the bedroom to inspect before insertion that you are complying with the law. (GRISWOLD V. CONNECTICUT, 381 US 479 (1965)). How will the FCC regulate without inspecting what you write? Under the pretense of protecting “neutrality” they will be able to shut down political speech.
The public at large are totally ignorant of how law is made. It is not crafted by Congress but judges and prosecutors after agencies write it not Congress. Agencies write their own laws. Insider trading etc. are SEC regulations. But then a clause states it is a crime to violate a SEC regulation. Therefore, this is a dictatorial power that is NOT enacted by Congress. Agencies simply write regulations that become crimes.
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However, sites outside the USA will be beyond the jurisdiction of the FCC. So how will they “monitor” such foreign sites to ensure neutrality? They will block sites from access. This is the very same policy imposed in both China and Russia. Say goodbye to the freedom of access and freedom of speech. Obama is en route to destroy the internet. Censorship is what they are worried about with the Sovereign Debt Crisis. They KNOW what is coming. This is a power-play to seize control of the internet to protect their ass – not yours!
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This means under FCC Title II of the Communications Act of 1934, Obama unilaterally wants to regulate what you now say. He will not allow a public vote any more than the EU will allow free elections on the Euro. Obama is acting simply as an unconstitutional dictator. Anyone publishing on the internet would need a license and if they do not approve what you write – goodbye. It may be jail time for walking on someone’s grass or other law. Perhaps throwing fish overboard - that’s good for 20 years in prison.
Forget free speech. Obama naturally claims he wants “to protect net neutrality.” That is the code word for regulating free speech just like we have free speech in the media. Oh lets see, I do not believe what you wrote was neutral or fair – that’s a fine and imprisonment. Every law has fine and imprisonment as a penalty. You will be sitting in a cell with a serial killer. He will ask you “what’s u in for”, and you will say publicly saying taxes are not fair. Politicians always hide their real motives. Obama was looking to disarm America to cut off the possibility of revolution so he pretends gun control is for children. Hitler used the same tactics. Politicians always disguise their real motives. It has historically always been them against us. |
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The solution as always will not be government regulation (which always makes it worse), rather competition via improved technology that enables finer grained actions. Part of the problem is the regulatory capture that already exists to prevent competition juxtaposed against capital requirements due to current granularity of technological solutions. Mesh-nets are one potential technological solution on the horizon. Also I've heard about solar powered planes or balloons beaming service at lower capital costs than satellites. |
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Net Neutrality means paying users subsidize free loaders with government enforcement under the idealistic guise (lie) of "making all packets free(dom) or equal". Since everyone then is motivated to be a free loader, then the internet goes bankrupt and is backstopped by government subsidies. This is just socialism (not trusting the fine grained annealing of the free market), handing control to the largest multi-nationals which have regulatory capture of the government, and thus abject failure end game.
It is not surprising to me that most people these days fall for this bullshit. People are so socialist and collectivist minded these days. They believe the problem is the solution, i.e. the problem of multinational regulatory capture of the government is solved by more government regulation. Sigh.
Any way, I've been thinking about how we can get improved IP obfuscation anonymity on the low-latency internet without relying solely on low-latency Chaum mix-nets such as I2P and Tor. The solution can also work around Net Neutrality socialism.
Once we have a micro-payments decentralized crypto-currency (Bitcoin doesn't have the correct design), we can design turnkey software so that any one can turn their home WiFi router into a money making ISP. Drive-by clients can anonymously pay per packet to connect over the WiFi.
As these WiFi nodes become ubiquitous (due to their independent setup and profitability), they can begin to connect to each other in a mesh topology network, thus by passing (routing around) the internet backbone in case where the government has put in a packet filter.
Fuck the socialism! We hackers are in the process of radically changing this world. Stay tuned...
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Is there encryption technology that could easily be built right into all cellphones so that all calls would be scrambled? This would make all phone calls not viewable or audio available except to the recipient phone... like a general phone PGP or GPG. Now you are thinking correctly. |
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-94338BACK TO THE FUTURE: IS THE US NOW IN LATE 1928?
In the late 1920’s, after the Fed engaged in QE in 1924 and 1927 (monetizing bankers acceptance notes at the time in absence of Federal debt) to encourage gold to leave the US and return to Europe...
But, by cutting interest rates and doing some QE in 1927, the Fed triggered massive speculation in the US stock market. This was partly on leverage (brokers loans exploded). By August 1928, despite the Fed tightening again between February and July 1928 because the market was getting “frothy”, capital started to flee Europe again to flow back into the US, attracted by the apparently fantastic gains to be made in the US stock market and scared by reparation tensions rising between France and Germany ... The value of total capital in the US exploded relative to the value of production from 4.2x end 1926 to over 6x end 1929...
The situation today is strikingly similar: QE fueled the S&P500 for the past years but has now ended. Still, global capital is rushing back to the US, fleeing Japan and Europe, both struggling under deflation and both trying to debase their currency. Europe is close to recession again...
The US stock market is the receptacle for all this floating capital looking for a home as the bond market provides negative real return, commodities are crashing and there is little real economy investment opportunities because final demand is lacklustre and capacity often already in excess. This is fueling another leg up in the S&P500, similar to the post Fed-tightening ramp up from Q3 1928 ... The value of total capital in the US is now over 5.5x the value of production, the level of December 1928, though the composition is different (more debt, less stock market equity, comparable home equity).
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– The S&P500 will go up ... at ~2740 by late 2015, which is 2 standard deviations above its long term trend since 1871...
– Then we’ll have a major financial crash as equity are grossly overvalued compared to the sea of debt underneath it and the correction degenerates due to leverage unwinding. It will spill over into an economic recession / depression in 2016-2017.
– By Q3 2018, the S&P500 will be at 265, which is 2 standard deviations below its long term trend, as many companies part of the index won’t survive. Armstrong has pointed out that historically the Fed will tighten because they mistake the macroeconomic deadcat bounce—caused by the influx of international capital flows—as a real economic upturn. Historically the stock market doesn't decline when interest rates rise. As interest rates rise, more capital flows into the dollar because the rest of the world is short the dollar due to the carry trade in dollars from the QE1 - 3 (world has accrued massive dollar loans because QE drove dollar investors abroad to seek yield). Meaning the rest of world will accelerate its implosion, thus more capital will flee. It is inescapable spiral and the real interest rate return on equities is not the driving factor.
1929 was the beginning a Public wave; whereas, 2007 or 2015 are both in the middle of a Private wave. Also we have a confluence of the upswing in the 25.6 year war cycle in 2014, the peak of 224 year political cycle in the USA in 2013 (see Public wave link for chart), the pandemic cycle peaking in 2019 (see Public wave link), and the peak of the 309.6 year civilization wave in 2032 (note it is not a public wave but a civilization change wave).
So not only is the USA not entering a Public confidence in 2007 or 2015, rather the confidence in the Public bonds is collapsing every where (even Germany will be insolvent). The movement is towards Private assets every where and there will be no safe haven sovereign nation. This is why all the cycles are flashing red alert in unison.
The governments will hunt down the wealth with a globalized police state (and squander it of course in collapsing spiral of failure and pestilence). This is extremely dangerous. Asia will rise as the next financial center, but after the chaos and not until 2032.
World War 2 was a walk in the park compared to what is coming for us now. We will be begging for hyperinflation instead of strong military governments raising taxes, capital controls, bail-ins, and hunting us all down.
Our one hope is the internet and privacy (anonymity) enabling technologies. Political solutions will not come until after the public is tired from the chaos by 2032. See the murals at the Denver airport which are aware of what is coming. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/01/29/8797/http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/2006/06/economic-confidence-model.html    http://thechive.com/2012/03/08/something-is-rotten-in-the-denver-airport-25-photos/        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skull_and_Bones   http://www.businessinsider.com/skull-and-bones-alumni-2011-2?op=1                                   
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I have a better idea that even guards your privacy, make some thermite in some kind of wooden box attached to the back ( so it's still flammable ) and set it up so that you can set it off with some kind of signal, then if it ever get stolen you can simply set the thing off and if someone has been a dick and stolen your phone it will burn up and either ruin their pocket making it obvious who the culprit is or burn their hand off depending on how much you've put in.
Tracking devices are pretty pointless and are easily reversed if the person knows how to mess with it, I'm not looking forward to the technology they're trying to push onto drivers in Britain.
You risk your own health just to punish a thief over an electronic good that is halving in price roughly every 18 months. Your IQ is below 100.
Luke 6:30
Give to everyone who begs from you, and from one who takes away your goods do not demand them back.
Matthew 26:52-54
Then Jesus said to him, “Put your sword back into its place. For all who take the sword will perish by the sword. Do you think that I cannot appeal to my Father, and he will at once send me more than twelve legions of angels? But how then should the Scriptures be fulfilled, that it must be so?”
Matthew 5:38-39
“You have heard that it was said, ‘An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth.’ But I say to you, Do not resist the one who is evil. But if anyone slaps you on the right cheek, turn to him the other also.
Ephesians
Be angry and do not sin; do not let the sun go down on your anger, and give no opportunity to the devil.
2 Peter 3:9
The Lord is not slow to fulfill his promise as some count slowness, but is patient toward you, not wishing that any should perish, but that all should reach repentance.
Leviticus 19:18
You shall not take vengeance or bear a grudge against the sons of your own people, but you shall love your neighbor as yourself: I am the Lord.
Romans 12:19
Beloved, never avenge yourselves, but leave it to the wrath of God, for it is written, “Vengeance is mine, I will repay, says the Lord.” |
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You want a hardware fucking tracking device?
You want to hand the global police state your privacy on a damn silver platter!
Fuck man, the smartphones are getting cheaper due to Moore's law. I wonder if there is anything but air between your ears.
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Seems everyone is using that statement about Armstrong's computer being self-aware to discredit him. So let me clarify the difference between sentient and self-aware. I have argued that Kurzweil's Singularity can not occur for as long as computers are not integrated into reproduction and evolution because the entropy added by the humans is not contained within the entropy of the self-learning computers. Here is an excerpt: Algorithm ≠ Entropy
Proponents of the technological singularity theory cite the exponential increase in computing hardware power such as Moore's Law and recent software advances such the sophisticated Spaun artificial brain which can pass simple IQ tests and interact with its environment; also IBM's Watson computer which defeated Jeopardy and chess masters, subsequently was recently programmed to do lung cancer diagnosis more accurately than human doctors.
However, the speed of the computing hardware and the sophistication of the software has no relevance because creativity can't be expressed in an algorithm. Every possible model of the brain will lack the fundamental cause of human creativity— every human brain is unique. Thus each of billions of brains is able to contemplate possibilities and scenarios differently enough so that it is more likely at least one brain will contemplate some unique idea that fits each set of possibilities at each point in time.
An algorithm or model can describe what and how to do and even be generalized to respond to unknown future scenarios by observing patterns and deducing rules about its environment, but it can't vary its imperfections nondeterministically, because the input entropy (to the algorithm) is known a priori and is finite. Whereas, for the collection of all human brains, the entropy is unbounded and thus the future can't be predetermined, i.e. isn't deterministic.
Imagine if life was perfect and without chance. Life would be deterministic and could be modeled with an algorithm, then failure couldn't exist, everything would be known in advance, and thus there could be no change that wasn't predictable, i.e. real change wouldn't exist and the universe would be static. Life requires imperfection and unbounded diversity, else life doesn't exist and isn't alive. Equality and perfection are the ambition of the insane who probably don't realize they must destroy life to reach their goal.
Thus the theory that it would be impossible to predict what computers would contemplate is nonsense because the input entropy of the models of the brain will always be finite and deterministic from the time the input entropy is varied.
Pseudo-random number generators are deterministic from the time the seed is changed. Even dynamically capturing entropy from the changing content of the internet would be deterministic from each moment of capture to the next, and the model of capture would be lacking diversity and static (only modified by a human).
Thought Isn't Fungible
To make the computers as creative as the humans would require inputting the entropy from all the human brains. Yet there is no plausible way to extract the future uniqueness of human brains other than to allow them interact with the environment over unbounded time, because the occurrence of creativity is probablistic (by chance) as the dynamic diversity of human minds interact with the changing environment. The term unbounded means there is no way to observe or capture that uniqueness a priori other than through the future of life as it unfolds.
Inmates can be forced to do manual labor because it is possible to observe the performance of the menial tasks. However, it is impossible (or at least very inefficient and imprecise) to determine whether a human is feigning inability or giving best effort at a knowledge task. Manual labor is fungible, i.e. nearly any person with average IQ and dexterous limbs can be substituted to do the task. Whereas, knowledge production such as programming the computer, authoring content or developing marketing plans, requires diversity of thought. Armstrong claims his computer was capable of learning from and be aware of its environment and took evasive action when its security was threatened. This is entirely possible as we know for example that A.I. neural networks can distill patterns from a series of inputs. However what is not possible is for the computer to have feelings about its relatives, nor be able to come up with an innovative idea that wasn't contained within its input entropy. The input entropy of the set of all humans is not only the environmental input since birth, rather it also includes the entire evolutionary history of that particular ancestry path via the DNA. One thing I forget to put in my linked essay is that the known genome is not finite. There resolution of the DNA is not limited to the finite genes, instead there are finer grained elements within the genome which we are either already aware of or will discover. When we think about the interaction of the environment with the collective genome, we need to pay attention to my point about path dependencies and why no two events can ever be exactly identical (although cycles can have general resemblance). So computers will do amazing things that seem almost sentient, but they will never replace humans unless they are able to reproduce biologically with the randomness (entropy) of the infinite encoding in the genome.http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2011/01/singularity.htmlThe Singularitarian notion of an all-encompassing or "general" intelligence flies in the face of how our modern economy, with its extreme specialization, works. We have been implementing human intelligence in computers little bits and pieces at a time, and this has been going on for centuries. First arithmetic (first with mechanical calculators), then bitwise Boolean logic (from the early parts of the 20th century with vacuum tubes), then accounting formulae and linear algebra (big mainframes of the 1950s and 60s), typesetting (Xerox PARC, Apple, Adobe, etc.), etc. etc. have each gone through their own periods of exponential and even super-exponential growth. But it's these particular operations, not intelligence in general, that exhibits such growth.
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Another way to look at the limits of this hypothetical general AI is to look at the limits of machine learning. I've worked extensively with evolutionary algorithms and other machine learning techniques. These are very promising but are also extremely limited without accurate and complete simulations of an environment in which to learn. So for example in evolutionary techniques the "fitness function" involves, critically, a simulation of electric circuits (if evolving electric circuits), of some mechanical physics (if evolving simple mechanical devices or discovering mechanical laws), and so on.
These techniques only can learn things about the real world to the extent such simulations accurately simulate the real world, but except for extremely simple situations (e.g. rediscovering the formulae for Kepler's laws based on orbital data, which a modern computer with the appropriate learning algorithm can now do in seconds) the simulations are usually very woefully incomplete, rendering the results usually useless. For example John Koza after about 20 years of working on genetic programming has discovered about that many useful inventions with it, largely involving easily simulable aspects of electronic circults. And "meta GP", genetic programming that is supposed to evolve its own GP-implementing code, is useless because we can't simulate future runs of GP without actually running them. So these evolutionary techniques, and other machine learning techniques, are often interesting and useful, but the severely limited ability of computers to simulate most real-world phenomena means that no runaway is in store, just potentially much more incremental improvements which will be much greater in simulable arenas and much smaller in others, and will slowly improve as the accuracy and completeness of our simulations slowly improves.
Nor does the human mind, as flexible as it is, exhibit much in the way of some universal general intelligence. Many machines and many other creatures are capable of sensory, information-processing, and output feats that the human mind is quite incapable of. So even if we in some sense had a full understanding of the human mind (and it is information theoretically impossible for one human mind to fully understand even one other human mind), or could somehow faithfully "upload" a human mind to a computer (another entirely conjectural operation, which may require infeasible simulations of chemistry), we would still not have "general" intelligence, again if such a thing even exists.
That's not to say that many of the wide variety of techniques that go under the rubric "AI" are not or will not be highly useful, and may even lead to accelerated economic growth as computers help make themselves smarter. But these will turn into S-curves as they approach physical limits and the idea that this growth or these many and varied intelligences are in any nontrivial way "singular" is very wrong.
On a separate topic, I see the national security agencies are now using the ISIS false flag operation (the west funded and armed them, e.g. to overthrow Syria) to justify their abrogation of our basic rights. These fuckers will never stop the encroaching Police state until we make them impotent technologically. Political solutions won't work until after society crashes and burns, because people are complacent until then. Note the rise in the religious war was coming now due to the natural cycle. Nevertheless, our western governments are leveraging this (sowing chaos) to justify abrogating our human rights. The only way to take back what is ours, is to make the governments impotent with technology that empowers the individual. Political solutions will always end up owned by the elite, e.g. the coming IMF globalized monetary unit after 2024.  | http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-94248
Suvy, your assay of the problems is clairvoyant, but you won’t get solutions politically in time, at least not on the national scope. Instead we will crash and burn first. Another much more severe global contagion will ensue in 2016.
The near-term future of the youth is the internet and an internet monetary system controlled by no one. But Bitcoin has failed to be that unit. After 2032, you will see political solutions but your youthful demographic will get glossy-eyed and hand the power to globalized monetary fiat in return for idealistic slogans of “end war” which we will be very tired of by then because we will see a massive upswing of war from now until 2024 at least. For example, China and Japan are ramping up to fight in order to redirect public angst away from the failed national monetary policies.
In short, the death of the nation-states and the rise of a global community. There will be a split between the first-class Knowledge workers who will go for individual sovereignty with an improved decentalized internet monetary unit and the rest who will side with a socialistic (political) fiat global reset.
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Armstrong correctly explains that the elite are not suppressing the precious metals. I had posted upthread a long explanation that the elite are not powerful enough to control the chaos in nature, rather what they do is to align themselves with creative destruction and experiment to find ways to achieve their goals of more globalized economies-of-scale for their multi-national corporations and political capture. Armstrong is correct about the money center banks being very short-term fraud oriented. The elite who sit above the money center banks (Armstrong doesn't agree) could not further their aims for creative destruction symbiosis by trying to entirely suppress the precious metal prices. Fiat and futures markets on precious metals have sustained because the broad populace doesn't then want to use physical metal, but that is not really a manipulation rather it is what society has chosen. The way the elite plan to obtain their goals for a global fiat is by pumping the world full of debt as they have done and then IMF will rush in with a new monetary system solution after 2024. The chaos from 2016 to 2024 will burn the confidence in the nation-states to the ground. This I argue was by-design of the long-term thinking elite such as Rothschild et al. They have aligned themselves with this natural cycle of chaos and the natural tendency of society towards socialism failure and debt. Armstrong has apparently unlocked the math of the natural cycles. Apparently Pi (a.k.a. π = 3.1459) is the basis, which seems plausible since the circumference (= π2r, where r = radius) and area (= πr2, where r = radius) of a circle, as well all wave equations involve π. |
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CoinCube, Armstrong clarified that the mostly likely date for the new monetary system is 2024.35. Also he said the technically highest price for gold by 2032 is $24,000 (not a prediction, just the highest it could go): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg8621544#msg8621544Key is to understand this about the 8.6 year business cycle waves in his ECM: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/02/when-will-the-monetary-system-crack/This brings us most likely to the Pi cycle target after 2024.35. That is when 911 took place to the day and when Greece began with the realization that there was trouble in the sovereign debt world of Europe.
This previous 8.6 year wave that peaked in 2007.15 was just the beginning with the realization of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The current wave that peaks in 2015.75 should start the debt crisis with more government being forced into insolvency. This is what the IMF proposal is all about and the Fed looking to impose an exit tax on the most liquid market in the world – US debt. The next wave 2024.35 will be the pulling apart of the world monetary system and the peak of this wave in 2032.95 is most likely where the tangible assets rise as a store of value in a world of uncertainty with respect to the medium of exchange. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/05/beware-2025/We are most likely going to see a financial crisis that engulf the pensions and the sovereign debt crisis. The preliminary target seems to be really off in 2025. However, 2020 will be the first big crack.
We seem to be headed for the electronic currency as the first fix. But we will see this migrate to the replacement of the reserve currency, which I believe will be a basket of the major currencies administered by some agency, I sure hope will not be the IMF. However, I would bet against my luck on that one.
Gold may not reach its final peak until 2025. |
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-93904Suvy, your assay of the problems is clairvoyant, but you won't get solutions politically in time, at least not on the national scope. Instead we will crash and burn first. Another much more severe global contagion will ensue in 2016.
The near-term future of the youth is the internet and an internet monetary system controlled by no one. But Bitcoin has failed to be that unit. After 2032, you will see political solutions but your youthful demographic will get glossy-eyed and hand the power to globalized monetary fiat in return for idealistic slogans of "end war" which we will be very tired of by then because we will see a massive upswing of war from now until 2024 at least. For example, China and Japan are ramping up to fight in order to redirect public angst away from the failed national monetary policies.
In short, the death of the nation-states and the rise of a global community. There will be a split between the first-class Knowledge workers who will go for individual sovereignty with an improved decentalized internet monetary unit and the rest who will side with a socialistic (political) fiat global reset.
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But a new global monetary system in just over a year? That does not seem too probable right now and time is rapidly running out.
I know this is very important to you and others because you have financial issues which are affected by the timing. So let me help you. You don't understand. The pressures have been building since 2008 for example the developing world (except China and Russia) is short the dollar with massive corporate loans in dollars: http://suvysthoughts.blogspot.com/2014/08/impact-of-qe.html?showComment=1415217892059#c2003627059754047022https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=822370.msg9198103#msg9198103https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9374122#msg9374122While dollar is appreciating as the rest of the world moves back to the dollar since the rest of the world has peaked on the bounce from 2008 and is headed down. Thus a massive global short squeeze is underway. Also Abenomics has shifted Japan from an inward carry trade to outward bound carry trade which will drive the dollar up massively. The contagion struck very quickly in 2008 after the pin was pricked on time in early 2007 as predicted by the ECM model. So we the next contagion in 2016 is going to see radically increased volatility as these pressure cookers erupt. |
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How about the fact that I started selling silver in the mid-$30s and totally dumped in the high $20s, because of Armstrongs explanation that the ECM turned in 2011 and that capital would first rush back into the USA and dollar before a renewed sovereign debt contagion after 2015.75? My goldbug friends are still holding now with silver at $15 as I warned them. Then we have Bitcoin which I (Anonymint) predicted (in this forum numerous times reiterated) would decline from $1000 to $150, based on the fact that adoption was declining due to take over by Coinbase, Bitpay, etc (losing network effects) and because all Private assets will align and move down for a bottom in 2015. I was reading him in 2012 when he predicted the USA stock market would continue up to make a double or triple before 2015.75. The model is working extremely well. Yet you claim Armstrong predicts nothing. I agree that the opinion expressed above is absolutely nothing more then my gut feeling. Never said it was anything more. I freely admit that I do not have hard data to back it up. However, as far as I can tell neither does our friend Mr. Armstrong.
I presented you with data and analysis of the data in my prior post and on the prior page of this thread which is independent of Armstrong. Also for you to assert that Armstrong has no data is just incredulous. You have been too lazy (or busy) to actually determine what data he has or doesn't have. If you are serious, you will contact Princeton Economics and pay some money to get the proof you need. I guess for example spending $10 million to collect ancient coins so he could accurately construct a silver chart for the Roman empire, is not data to you. I have seen the chart on his blog. Are you claiming the chart is a fraud? I read all the links including the linked "proof" and find it simply unconvincing. Armstrong's table of predictions presented here makes it seem as though he made all these predictions in the 1985 World Economic Conference. However, that chart of predictions looks to have been made using a modern version of powerpoint. I guess you've never loaded a file in a newer version of a software in order to export an image file? I guess you fail to appreciate that this man is digging up archives that could be retrieved after everything was taken from him by the government. That report was sent to him by a reader who was at the conference. There are also numerous posts on his blog from readers who report being at the 1998 conference. If you are serious, why don't you spend some money to attend his next conference and go ask the attendees. Google can't find a lot of complaints where people are able to show that Armstrong is a charlatan. The next major sovereign debt crisis should appear.. (in 2011), and perhaps culminate in a new global monetary system by 2016. - Martin Armstrong 1985 PEI Economic Conference Ok kinda sorta maybe. But a new global monetary system in just over a year? That does not seem too probable right now and time is rapidly running out. You don't see the word "perhaps"? A prediction made 29 years ago which has pretty much been spot on in terms of the next leg beginning on 2011 (that is when gold peaked and Europe/Japan/China began their descent) and the word "perhaps" on thinking about the new monetary system that will follow. The ECM doesn't time the new monetary system. It only times the shifts in the Public vs. Private waves. The "perhaps" is speculation from Armstrong in terms of interpreting the effects of those shifts. As we've gotten closer, he has refined those interpretations. Sorry but the more I look at Armstrong the less convinced I am. Armstrong claims his data and predictions come from his proprietary computer model. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/20/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousnes
ARMSTRONG: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again. However, he states he will never share the source of his predictions or his methodology with us. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/13/open-source-perhaps-the-real-curse/QUESTION: Hello Martin, Would you ever consider open-sourcing your source code?
ARMSTRONG: "the answer is no!" He has since decided to open source it. Sorry but if you are going to comment meaningfully, you will need to spend more than a few hours and actually read his blog from start to finish as I have. Armstrong is definitly interesting though. I agree with his article about the importance of of capital flows and his prediction that US stocks are going to do better then others in the short term. He is reportedly writing a book and I will buy that as long as its reasonably priced. He is interesting enough that I have kept an eye on his webpage over the last several months. Nevertheless I stand by my claim that he is a prophet or soothsayer if you prefer that word.
Mr. Armstrong claims he has a personal link to a self-aware computer which he is using to predict the future. He refuses to share his methodology with us and we just have to take his word for it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I just don't see it here.
Well I know who is going to end up the fool. Simply put, you don't have enough money to be worth his time to convince you. If you had enough money, you would already have the proof you need.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/idfa-film-festival-the-forecaster/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/the-movie-debut-amsterdam-november-22nd-at-largest-film-festival/ http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/gold-falling-from-grace/  http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/06/pound-v-euro-should-britain-just-leave-is-the-euro-a-doomed-currency/ Of course it was 2010 when Greece first moved into crisis. That took place precisely to the day on the Global ECM Pi Target. Strangely enough, the first sign of a crack with the EU actually took place to the day of this model in Italy – October 30th, 2008. The Italian Education Reform Protests erupted on precisely October 30th, 2008  |
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