Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? Thus do we need anonymity?

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

Who ever doesn't understand that iCEBREAKER is an idiot, deserves to fail miserably along with him (within about 12 to 18 months).

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[UnunoctiumTesticles]

I posted further explanation at China expert (Peking University economics professor) Michael Pettis’s blog:

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/09/what-does-a-good-chinese-adjustment-look-like/#comment-92792

Let me explain this more carefully.

there are no stable (non-volatile oscillation) proximate gradients of adjustment

I am positing that China can’t find adjustments which can rebalance away from the financially repressed (centrally forced, non-market-based low-interest rates) debt-gorging, fixed capital investment model without creating intolerable volatility because the structural imbalances are too extreme. Real adjustment which would require massive institutional, structural, and cultural adjustment. I am unaware of any incremental pathways to such adjustment. Thus I posit that rebalancing will only come unwillingly with a Minsky moment collapse.

Relate this to Suvy’s astute point about volatility which is essentially the point of Nicholas Taleb’s anti-fragility which I related to my concepts.

it was always about where to place excess capital

Until readers understand there is an epochal paradigm shift underway, they will not understand anything about what is happening in the global economy.

Excess has a precise meaning. The system was designed to repress the development of the individual and concentrate capital to the few. The problem is that the more capital a person has to manage, the less optimally they can do so. During the fungibility of manual (menial) labor in the Industrial Age  (e.g. not fully automated factories), concentrated capital expressed real efficiency gains in terms of economies-of-scale for highly capital intensive factories.

Highly concentrated capital is dead capital

But the capital in the Knowledge Age is not fungible thus economies-of-scale for stored monetary representations of capital are inherently regressive and insolvent! This renders the Industrial Age insolvent, irrelevant, and inapplicable.

In simple words, the Knowledge Age requires capital to be dispersed amongst the people, i.e. they and only they own and can act on their knowledge. The internet, 3D printers (i.e. localized prototyping and manufacturing), and numerous other technologies are rendering concentrated capital insolvent, because they are enablers that unlock the orders-of-magnitude higher value of the individual’s ingenuity.

So the problem for China is it gorged on the dying Industrial Age and debt-financed, fixed capital investment model. China’s real value lies in the incredible ingenuity of its people and it will probably require a collapse of the fixed investment hamster wheel in order to unlock China’s real potential.

Henry Ford model of paying the workers enough to buy the cars the labored to create

s/the labored/they labored/

the slave labor model of economic developer was not invertible except by reverting all the dead capital

s/economic developer/economic development/

Fixed capital investment is apparently a structurally, institutionally, politically, and culturally embedded model in China that had it roots in leveraging a predatory, mercantile model of trade along with a predatory local government model to drive development and full employment by concentrating capital among the Communist Party power holders. There was a trickle down effect and this is perhaps somewhat more widely distributed than Russia’s oligarchs, but nevertheless it is not an individual empowerment model that is compatible with the fledgling Knowledge Age.

The structural, institutional, political, and cultural ‘imbalances’ appear to be too extreme and path-dependent such that reversion to an individual empowerment model can not occur with any smooth transition. This is precisely Taleb’s anti-fragility. We could delve into the math of this in the proper venue.

no two events are very exactly the same because the external conditions can never be duplicated exactly

s/very exactly/ever exactly/

Every event is path dependent on the events leading up to it. Thus no event can ever be duplicated, because for example the subsequent event has path dependency on the prior event even if not directly via the Butterfly effect. More concretely, China’s embedded ‘imbalances’ are path dependent thus can’t be unwound incrementally analogously to that single noodles of spaghetti can't be untangled without impacting their entangled brethren.

Michael appears to focus most of his analytical effort on ratios and gives less weight to the critical issue of path dependencies. With my example of the 18 times income overvaluation of housing, I am pointing out how ratios can reveal the path dependencies if we look carefully.

where I going with this line of though

s/line of though/line of thought/

but State owns all in PRC as should be the USA case

Rob Carter, collectivized ownership is entirely insolvent in the Knowledge Age. In fact, we know from the Mythical Man Month, that the communication load of collectivizing knowledge production does not scale and the only known positive scaling law of software engineering is open source, i.e. autonomous developers (skip to 3min 45sec into the linked audio file, where the progenitor of the term ‘open source’ Eric Raymond defines Linus’s law).

Also to gain the squared network effects of Reed’s and Metcalf’s laws, requires the nodes (i.e. the individuals) to be able to interact with autonomy. For example, the market capitalization of Bitcoin grows proportionally to the square of metrics of individual users, so the reason for Bitcoin’s decelerating value growth is because the users are being cordoned off from each other by the rise of centralized exchanges to store their balances and execute transactions, thus for example a user on Coinbase can't do any genre of imaginable Bitcoin transaction with a user on Blockinfo.

I predicted all these things well in advance because I am in possession of the correct generalized model of nature.

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/10/should-beijing-raise-subway-fares/

Michael the only way forward is to privatize the Chinese economy, but this will probably require a Minsky moment collapse to remove the structural, political, cultural, and economic barriers.

Political centralization as a means to the end goal of decentralizing and privatizing the economy, is not feasible unless (per your theory) there are ways to reward the general population at the expense of the (local and central) party members who have concentrated control over the economy. I argue at the link above that there is no way to reward the general population without collapsing the fixed investment corruption model which holds the economy up, because the imbalances are too great. I used for example the housing being 18 times average income as an example that lowering house prices 50% does not change the dynamic from fixed investment Ponzi to a renting model (housing is too expensive to rent out profitably and -50% drop in housing prices does not change this fact).

Another obvious fact from your writings is that the consumer share is a small minority of the economy, thus fixed investment dominates the financial status of the general population. You have argued that there are incremental adjustments that can be made which boost the consumer more than they deduct via losses on the fixed capital sector, but I have not yet to read a very detailed analysis from you on this with data. Can you point me to one? The housing price drop example appears to reveal (in that case) that the path dependencies are too great for incremental adjustment.

[practicaldreamer]

"....and whatever a man knows, whatever is not mere rumbling and roaring that he has heard, can be said in three words" - Kurnberger.

Work on your blog - post a link here. That would be best all round.

[RodeoX]

If it came to this, your problems would all be solved... by your death.
The ammo would run out within a year, so would the food. Assuming it is a worldwide loss of civilized society, billions would starve. The only monies that would matter are food and slaves. I can't see this happening by 2020, but if we have a nuclear exchange, it could look like this in a week or two.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

If it came to this, your problems would all be solved... by your death.
The ammo would run out within a year, so would the food. Assuming it is a worldwide loss of civilized society, billions would starve. The only monies that would matter are food and slaves. I can't see this happening by 2020, but if we have a nuclear exchange, it could look like this in a week or two.

You are thinking only in terms of dipolar extremes. There are many gradients of economic collapse scenarios that are less extreme yet extremely disruptive to our lives.

You will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.

Work on your blog - post a link here. That would be best all round.

Mr. Socialist Pig, I will write what I want, where I want. You may do the same. Sorry you don't control the individual. If you did, we would all die because the end game of centralized control is megadeath.

[RodeoX]

If it came to this, your problems would all be solved... by your death.
The ammo would run out within a year, so would the food. Assuming it is a worldwide loss of civilized society, billions would starve. The only monies that would matter are food and slaves. I can't see this happening by 2020, but if we have a nuclear exchange, it could look like this in a week or two.

You are thinking only in terms of dipolar extremes. There are many gradients of economic collapse scenarios that are less extreme yet extremely disruptive to our lives.

Work on your blog - post a link here. That would be best all round.

My Socialist, I will write what I want, where I want. You may do the same. Sorry you don't control the individual. If you did, we would all die because centralized control is megadeath.

True, I was. I thought the scenario was "MadMax". That's about as extreme as it gets! Although a more realistic post-apocalypse movie is "The road". That is a depressing movie and a chillingly real look at life in a dying world.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

If it came to this, your problems would all be solved... by your death.
The ammo would run out within a year, so would the food. Assuming it is a worldwide loss of civilized society, billions would starve. The only monies that would matter are food and slaves. I can't see this happening by 2020, but if we have a nuclear exchange, it could look like this in a week or two.

You are thinking only in terms of dipolar extremes. There are many gradients of economic collapse scenarios that are less extreme yet extremely disruptive to our lives.

You will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.

True, I was. I thought the scenario was "MadMax". That's about as extreme as it gets! Although a more realistic post-apocalypse movie is "The road". That is a depressing movie and a chillingly real look at life in a dying world.

Not as extreme as Mel Gibson's movie. Expect something similar to 1929 and WW2 was Mad Max in my opinion, but with much more State control in the USA (see below for reason):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmfaKT0_frE#t=92s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwvDBeP9HkE

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/04/judges-are-free-to-take-your-liberty-for-anything-didnt-cut-your-lawn-jail-time/

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=riots+in+China

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=riots+in+Europe

The reason why is before the collective society could afford FDR's New Deal, but this time we are bankrupt so these sort of socialist deals are going to result in hardship (state rationing via Medicare, Obamacare, 57 million on food stamps, etc.) which will lead to more rioting and spirals into uncontrollable chaos.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/15/pentagons-1033-program-is-preparing-for-war-against-the-civil-population/

The assault on the veterans who defended the world in World War I and were treated like garbage moved the nation. That incident was the final straw that led the people to elect FDR with a majority in excess of 60%. This use of these very same tactics today is outrageous and quite frankly warrants criminal action against those in charge. This is not war games. But we have to realize, what you see in Ferguson is the attitude that has engulfed the entire civil police force throughout the nation. Top military generals led the assault against the veterans. It was the lowest point in American military history. Because of this incident, when World War II came, Congress had to pass the GI bill to promise veterans would never be treated that way again.

Daniel in the Bible predicts the time based on the Abomination of the Desolation, based on historical events such as the Holy war in 1967 (google can help you find the detailed calculations). Now we have all the signs as reported by NASA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9euK-koV-8k

[practicaldreamer]

Work on your blog - post a link here. That would be best all round.

Mr. Socialist Pig, I will write what I want, where I want. You may do the same. Sorry you don't control the individual. If you did, we would all die because the end game of centralized control is megadeath.

How to deactive my Bitcointalk account? - and I quote,

            "I have sent a private message to theymos asking him to deactive forum account.....I feel I will be of greater service when I am not talking. I've said enough. I am just repeating myself now.

I kindly ask the forum owners to respect the discipline I wish to place on myself."

I agree with you by suggesting you concentrate on your highly informative blog - and you call me "Mr.Socialist Pig" ? WTF ?

[practicaldreamer]

Can I just add that this thread has had 36,000 views - a fair amount by the OP's alter ego's I'll grant you, but still.

And, when all is said and done, its mostly a self indulgent, vacuity posing as metaphor, derivative of shite - constantly being bumped by the OP, or whoever the fuck the OP is trying to pass himself off as this week.

How many newcomers have viewed this thread and decided that if this is the level of discourse on the premier bitcoin forum then they had better think twice before parting with their fiat ?

Deactivate his account ?   Can someone please ban the fucker as a matter of urgency ?

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

I smile with a sense of achievement when socialist pigs throw hissy fits.

[CoinCube]

You will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.

Be careful about calling things too early. Personally I don't think things will collapse by 2016 it is just too soon for collapse.
There is plenty more "dry power" QE to be thrown at the world economy.Confidence in central banks is not yet broken and I doubt it will be by 2016.



I think you posted this picture up thread somewhere or I saw it after following one of your links. I am remain skeptical of Armstrong being a big skeptic of prophets in general. Nevertheless, the time frame here 2033 seems more realistic to me.

I can see the populace starting to lose faith after the next 19 years are filled with a full generation of QE. However, if the economy takes a dive in 2016 I think we will just see QE 5 and kick the can a little farther down the road.

Deactivate his account ?   Can someone please ban the fucker as a matter of urgency ?

“All censorships exist to prevent anyone from challenging current conceptions and existing institutions. All progress is initiated by challenging current conceptions, and executed by supplanting existing institutions. Consequently, the first condition of progress is the removal of censorship.” - George Bernard Shaw (Socialist and founding member of the Labor Party)

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

You will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.

Be careful about calling things too early. Personally I don't think things will collapse by 2016 it is just too soon for collapse.
There is plenty more "dry power" QE to be thrown at the world economy.Confidence in central banks is not yet broken and I doubt it will be by 2016.

I am surprised that you as an INTJ would posit such without any factual basis at all. It would have been more logical for you to say you don't have any data but your gut feeling is such.

Any way, real analysis of the data on QE should shock the fuck out of you. Make sure you click that link.

 

I think you posted this picture up thread somewhere or I saw it after following one of your links. I am remain skeptical of Armstrong being a big skeptic of prophets in general. Nevertheless, the time frame here 2033 seems more realistic to me.

I can see the populace starting to lose faith after the next 19 years are filled with a full generation of QE. However, if the economy takes a dive in 2016 I think we will just see QE 5 and kick the can a little farther down the road.

Armstrong is not a prophet. He is a scientist who created a model based on back testing all data since Mesopotamia and forward testing astoundingly precise correct predictions of the model since the 1980s. You really better click that link and review the facts on his model’s performance record. I don’t understand why any scientist would assert Armstrong is not applying the scientific method. The computer discovered the cyclical pattern from the historical data, not some numerology invented on a whim.

The image you displayed above is for the global turn from a Private to Public wave.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/



Please understand that the model is out-of-phase for different sectors.



http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/11/will-the-usa-also-break-up-into-regions/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/26/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/



The Private wave will continue until 2032 and private assets will not likely peak in price until then:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/28/cycle-inversion-staging-ground-for-2032/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/16/commodity-prices-into-2032/

Along the way of moving from Public assets (e.g. sovereign bonds) to the 2032 peak in the move to Private assets (e.g. gold, cryptocurrencies, off the grid real estate, Corporate bonds, stocks), there will come a point where the confidence in sovereign bonds breaks and the stampede into Private assets will accelerate.

Note how the move into Private assets really accelerated with the dot.com bubble, then the commodity and gold bubbles (which peaked temporarily in 2011 due to QE which was predicted by the ECM model as you see it turned back up from 2011 to 2015.75). So QE was able to kick the can down the road and keep the sovereign debt alive a little bit longer, but as I showed on the prior page of this thread, this was at the cost of driving global total debt-to-GDP north of 313%.

Thus 2015.75 is the ETA in the model for the next downwave of the sovereign debt contagion as it continues to succumb to the rising Private wave. And this next contagion in 2016 is going to be an order-of-magnitude worse than 2008 and it will also be qualitatively different. See the first link in this post for the detailed analysis on that.

Note that means Private assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies won't move up again until after 2015.75. Note the stock market had been correlated with Public assets, but it may now be undergoing a likely phase transition and if so it will shift to align as a Private asset and continue to move up after 2015.75.

Btw, the ephemeral resurgence of the Public sector from 2020 to 2024 (before the final phase transition to the blowoff peak in the Private wave) should scare the fuck out of you, because that will be the governments lashing out with war.

I hope you also noticed his model predicts a global pandemic in full swing by 2019:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/31/ebola-virus-the-next-plague-due-2019/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/01/the-first-ebola-case-appears-in-the-us/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/03/will-the-demise-be-plague-or-economics/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/04/ebola-the-next-plaguepandemic/

Again I reiterate, you will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.

[CoinCube]

You will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.

Be careful about calling things too early. Personally I don't think things will collapse by 2016 it is just too soon for collapse.
There is plenty more "dry power" QE to be thrown at the world economy.Confidence in central banks is not yet broken and I doubt it will be by 2016.

I am surprised that you as an INTJ would posit such without any factual basis at all. It would have been more logical for you to say you don't have any data but your gut feeling is such.

I agree that the opinion expressed above is absolutely nothing more then my gut feeling. Never said it was anything more. I freely admit that I do not have hard data to back it up. However, as far as I can tell neither does our friend Mr. Armstrong.

I read all the links including the linked "proof" and find it simply unconvincing. Armstrong's table of predictions presented
here makes it seem as though he made all these predictions in the 1985 World Economic Conference. However, that chart of predictions looks to have been made using a modern version of powerpoint.

When I try to find actual documented predictions from 1985 I can't find anything independent ie not published by Armstrong himself. Even Armstrong's own self published proof from 1985 is less than breathtaking.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Princeton-Economics-Correspondence-1985.pdf

The next major sovereign debt crisis should appear.. (in 2011), and perhaps culminate in a new global monetary system by 2016. - Martin Armstrong 1985 PEI Economic Conference

Ok kinda sorta maybe. But a new global monetary system in just over a year? That does not seem too probable right now and time is rapidly running out.

Sorry but the more I look at Armstrong the less convinced I am. Armstrong claims his data and predictions come from his proprietary computer model.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/20/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousnes
ARMSTRONG: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again.

However, he states he will never share the source of his predictions or his methodology with us.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/13/open-source-perhaps-the-real-curse/

QUESTION: Hello Martin, Would you ever consider open-sourcing your source code?
ARMSTRONG: "the answer is no!"

Armstrong is definitly interesting though. I agree with his article about the importance of of capital flows and his prediction that US stocks are going to do better then others in the short term. He is reportedly writing a book and I will buy that as long as its reasonably priced. He is interesting enough that I have kept an eye on his webpage over the last several months. Nevertheless I stand by my claim that he is a prophet or soothsayer if you prefer that word.

Mr. Armstrong claims he has a personal link to a self-aware computer which he is using to predict the future. He refuses to share his methodology with us and we just have to take his word for it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I just don't see it here.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

How about the fact that I started selling silver in the mid-$30s and totally dumped in the high $20s, because of Armstrongs explanation that the ECM turned in 2011 and that capital would first rush back into the USA and dollar before a renewed sovereign debt contagion after 2015.75?

My goldbug friends are still holding now with silver at $15 as I warned them.

Then we have Bitcoin which I (Anonymint) predicted (in this forum numerous times reiterated) would decline from $1000 to $150, based on the fact that adoption was declining due to take over by Coinbase, Bitpay, etc (losing network effects) and because all Private assets will align and move down for a bottom in 2015.

I was reading him in 2012 when he predicted the USA stock market would continue up to make a double or triple before 2015.75. The model is working extremely well.

Yet you claim Armstrong predicts nothing.

I agree that the opinion expressed above is absolutely nothing more then my gut feeling. Never said it was anything more. I freely admit that I do not have hard data to back it up. However, as far as I can tell neither does our friend Mr. Armstrong.

I presented you with data and analysis of the data in my prior post and on the prior page of this thread which is independent of Armstrong.

Also for you to assert that Armstrong has no data is just incredulous. You have been too lazy (or busy) to actually determine what data he has or doesn't have. If you are serious, you will contact Princeton Economics and pay some money to get the proof you need.

I guess for example spending $10 million to collect ancient coins so he could accurately construct a silver chart for the Roman empire, is not data to you. I have seen the chart on his blog. Are you claiming the chart is a fraud?

I read all the links including the linked "proof" and find it simply unconvincing. Armstrong's table of predictions presented
here makes it seem as though he made all these predictions in the 1985 World Economic Conference. However, that chart of predictions looks to have been made using a modern version of powerpoint.

I guess you've never loaded a file in a newer version of a software in order to export an image file?

I guess you fail to appreciate that this man is digging up archives that could be retrieved after everything was taken from him by the government.

When I try to find actual documented predictions from 1985 I can't find anything independent ie not published by Armstrong himself. Even Armstrong's own self published proof from 1985 is less than breathtaking.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Princeton-Economics-Correspondence-1985.pdf

That report was sent to him by a reader who was at the conference. There are also numerous posts on his blog from readers who report being at the 1998 conference.

If you are serious, why don't you spend some money to attend his next conference and go ask the attendees.

Google can't find a lot of complaints where people are able to show that Armstrong is a charlatan.

The next major sovereign debt crisis should appear.. (in 2011), and perhaps culminate in a new global monetary system by 2016. - Martin Armstrong 1985 PEI Economic Conference

Ok kinda sorta maybe. But a new global monetary system in just over a year? That does not seem too probable right now and time is rapidly running out.

You don't see the word "perhaps"? A prediction made 29 years ago which has pretty much been spot on in terms of the next leg beginning on 2011 (that is when gold peaked and Europe/Japan/China began their descent) and the word "perhaps" on thinking about the new monetary system that will follow.

The ECM doesn't time the new monetary system. It only times the shifts in the Public vs. Private waves.

The "perhaps" is speculation from Armstrong in terms of interpreting the effects of those shifts. As we've gotten closer, he has refined those interpretations.

Sorry but the more I look at Armstrong the less convinced I am. Armstrong claims his data and predictions come from his proprietary computer model.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/20/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousnes
ARMSTRONG: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again.

However, he states he will never share the source of his predictions or his methodology with us.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/13/open-source-perhaps-the-real-curse/

QUESTION: Hello Martin, Would you ever consider open-sourcing your source code?
ARMSTRONG: "the answer is no!"

He has since decided to open source it. Sorry but if you are going to comment meaningfully, you will need to spend more than a few hours and actually read his blog from start to finish as I have.

Armstrong is definitly interesting though. I agree with his article about the importance of of capital flows and his prediction that US stocks are going to do better then others in the short term. He is reportedly writing a book and I will buy that as long as its reasonably priced. He is interesting enough that I have kept an eye on his webpage over the last several months. Nevertheless I stand by my claim that he is a prophet or soothsayer if you prefer that word.

Mr. Armstrong claims he has a personal link to a self-aware computer which he is using to predict the future. He refuses to share his methodology with us and we just have to take his word for it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I just don't see it here.

Well I know who is going to end up the fool. Simply put, you don't have enough money to be worth his time to convince you. If you had enough money, you would already have the proof you need.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/idfa-film-festival-the-forecaster/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/the-movie-debut-amsterdam-november-22nd-at-largest-film-festival/



http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/gold-falling-from-grace/





http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/06/pound-v-euro-should-britain-just-leave-is-the-euro-a-doomed-currency/

Of course it was 2010 when Greece first moved into crisis. That took place precisely to the day on the Global ECM Pi Target. Strangely enough, the first sign of a crack with the EU actually took place to the day of this model in Italy – October 30th, 2008. The Italian Education Reform Protests erupted on precisely October 30th, 2008

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

But a new global monetary system in just over a year? That does not seem too probable right now and time is rapidly running out.

I know this is very important to you and others because you have financial issues which are affected by the timing.

So let me help you. You don't understand. The pressures have been building since 2008 for example the developing world (except China and Russia) is short the dollar with massive corporate loans in dollars:

http://suvysthoughts.blogspot.com/2014/08/impact-of-qe.html?showComment=1415217892059#c2003627059754047022

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=822370.msg9198103#msg9198103

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9374122#msg9374122

While dollar is appreciating as the rest of the world moves back to the dollar since the rest of the world has peaked on the bounce from 2008 and is headed down. Thus a massive global short squeeze is underway.

Also Abenomics has shifted Japan from an inward carry trade to outward bound carry trade which will drive the dollar up massively.

The contagion struck very quickly in 2008 after the pin was pricked on time in early 2007 as predicted by the ECM model. So we the next contagion in 2016 is going to see radically increased volatility as these pressure cookers erupt.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-93904

Suvy, your assay of the problems is clairvoyant, but you won't get solutions politically in time, at least not on the national scope. Instead we will crash and burn first. Another much more severe global contagion will ensue in 2016.

The near-term future of the youth is the internet and an internet monetary system controlled by no one. But Bitcoin has failed to be that unit. After 2032, you will see political solutions but your youthful demographic will get glossy-eyed and hand the power to globalized monetary fiat in return for idealistic slogans of "end war" which we will be very tired of by then because we will see a massive upswing of war from now until 2024 at least. For example, China and Japan are ramping up to fight in order to redirect public angst away from the failed national monetary policies.

In short, the death of the nation-states and the rise of a global community. There will be a split between the first-class Knowledge workers who will go for individual sovereignty with an improved decentalized internet monetary unit and the rest who will side with a socialistic (political) fiat global reset.

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

CoinCube, here is what Google finds on the first page of search results for "Is Armstrong a charlatan?":

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=16401848#post16401848

http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/78KxR#_loginLayer_1415414038552

[UnunoctiumTesticles]

CoinCube,

Armstrong clarified that the mostly likely date for the new monetary system is 2024.35. Also he said the technically highest price for gold by 2032 is $24,000 (not a prediction, just the highest it could go):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg8621544#msg8621544

Key is to understand this about the 8.6 year business cycle waves in his ECM:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/02/when-will-the-monetary-system-crack/

This brings us most likely to the Pi cycle target after 2024.35. That is when 911 took place to the day and when Greece began with the realization that there was trouble in the sovereign debt world of Europe.

This previous 8.6 year wave that peaked in 2007.15 was just the beginning with the realization of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The current wave that peaks in 2015.75 should start the debt crisis with more government being forced into insolvency. This is what the IMF proposal is all about and the Fed looking to impose an exit tax on the most liquid market in the world – US debt. The next wave 2024.35 will be the pulling apart of the world monetary system and the peak of this wave in 2032.95 is most likely where the tangible assets rise as a store of value in a world of uncertainty with respect to the medium of exchange.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/05/beware-2025/

We are most likely going to see a financial crisis that engulf the pensions and the sovereign debt crisis. The preliminary target seems to be really off in 2025. However, 2020 will be the first big crack.
We seem to be headed for the electronic currency as the first fix. But we will see this migrate to the replacement of the reserve currency, which I believe will be a basket of the major currencies administered by some agency, I sure hope will not be the IMF. However, I would bet against my luck on that one.
Gold may not reach its final peak until 2025.

[antanst]

You seem to be a highly skilled software engineer. How does this strike you?

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/20/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

[lamaze]

Anonymity has been bitcoin's luring factor ever since so we need to keep it.