I was looking at 50 day and 200 day averages for a long time, there are shorter time frame ones then that but its just trading.  Price being below 50 day does suggest we are more likely to go and meet 200 day at some point but it can take so long to occur that the 200 day isnt even that far below now.

I think we found some support in the Feb prices or in simple terms the 50k area has volume and acts as support.   Price action is now challenging 2 day average and many will try and trade this, it remains to be seen if we have wider long term questions to answer still.


This is a good chart for volume weighted averages, at the end of April YTD was about 45k so we've been very close to that

We could still be bullish but also negative below the 50 day average, it does seem we are working out pricing here until we meet the 200 day average.   If we met 200 DMA now it'd place the price at 40k which to alot of people means we are negative.    However the 200 day moving upwards is still bullish and it still qualifies as just a pullback, the confusing part is the timeframe and we tend to want everything to appear for us today.
   Even while negative we can move upwards during a day, right now price is rising above the 12hr average and there are buyers for sure here some of which will be speculators who later sell and some genuine holders.  Its really hard to decide which is dominant theme exactly but over a year I would guess we remain bullish, I also expect 200 day average is quite fair pricing long term because historically thats correct

I'm kinda wary of these words, its close to crowded trade which is something to avoid because of over speculation which can result in adverse effects that cause that previously reliable and observable trend to at least reset.   Problem is traders use leverage so when something becomes too popular I think it can get ruined in its reliance, its pretty much a universal rule for open markets and we tend to go in cycles of movement rather then easily move up (or down).
   Just a passing thought anyway, I'm watching moves like anyone else not certain except that dollar index really has some battles ahead of it quite likely.

It does sound kinda cool, I wont comment on the chances exactly but I appreciate the aim of a moon shot type deal where you try to get the best chance rather then by an accumulated distribution.   My quick idea to improve odds or returns is to stream the wheel spins on Twitch and also post referral link for anyone wanting to join, if you could somehow publicize it maybe contact someone who already does gambling streams then you could benefit that way for sure.   My reference for that is many gamble streams are quite modest but attempting many times for a grander prize, can easily get an audience.
  I wasnt sure if there was a limit to keeping them and I only got to like 50 before I used most up.   Nice to know if I go away a while they stack up for when I get back.   The other aspect I kinda think about is the variable reward via the volatility in BTC pricing and thats always going to be there imo.    Doing the spins when price is lower brings a higher reward in BTC terms so I always like watching pricing for the swings it goes through, on a thousand iterations that potential difference adds upto something.

Worlds richest man calls out BTC for its POW system, relevant imo because ETH is in transition to proof of stake which I'd think qualifies as something of a greater efficiency.  Obviously the debate between all alternatives is not simple but if we are discussing the interplay in various crypto standards then we got consider ongoing questions by the wider public.   These massive price gains in crypto rely on that wider public for involvement so expect more kickback on things that have been normal in crypto for years, more shakeups, volatility and change is fair to expect imo.

My negative scenario seems to be playing out, not that my own opinion matters I just try to draw on what Ive observed previously so seems we are repeating ourselves within something of a box.   Every TA scenario is just a range of probability, seems the weight or path of least resistance lies with us moving downwards for now at least.   Need to keep looking but the full range fits this OP topic of rough price check for BTC, I really dont know why exactly just profit taking would be enough and that is part of acknowledging froth in price movement.   

The worlds richest man just described crypto as a hustle on tv.  I know people will say whats got to do with BTC he was referring to Doge, its associative and not helpful imo.  Doubts are normal and will occur anyhow, I just took that moment as a significant marker

I got 47k as bottom of the range so we can step over that limit a little at least as it would fit into prior price action anyhow. 




Very basic but quite reasonable, this is the action since Feb pretty much and early Feb this range low was visible as something of a ceiling of course the big number of 50k was some hesitation.  Breaking back under the 47k  bottom part of the box we're in would likely mean we explore prices across the whole rally even back to before xmas which is not the bullish scenario some have come to expect.    Just staying within this boxed in range should be considered normal I think.   As we've failed to break upwards that kind of repeat is what Im looking for in a very general sense.

I believe this was mentioned but people are just not specially familiar with the idea.   You can in effect transmit value by burning or ending the use of a token on one blockchain and being seen to do that then you receive equal value of token on the totally separate new blockchain.   Its been done a few times in projects over the years, you dont own both its an exchange

This might not be it exactly but its my impression we'd be talking along these lines defined here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/proof-burn-cryptocurrency.asp

I've thought we'd move away from proof of work, just on the basis of efficient systems but progress is not that rapid on this point and Ive been waiting 7 years or so now    Some might say only POW works but I reckon not as alternates are many years old, might be controversial I guess

Its fair to say there is a bubble in everything because of such dilution of the worlds main global reserve monetary base.   Without defaulting or some dramatic effect I dont see how we dont continue to see weak currency and inflated prices in many asset classes.   I dont think its a stable thing but we have to judge which will last best over time and fair best vs this volatility, since Bitcoin is global it has a fair chance in this.
   20k is about half the 200 day average, it can happen but anywhere between 30 to 20k would be very stretched and likely to rise again after much like the 2017 peak fell and rose many times.   I always think of a bouncing ball and its reducing pattern on every bounce, you can still be bearish within that but we arent that likely to go back to 20k and just stay there and I dont think we'd even fall that low currently as there is not the climate for such a pullback to suddenly occur.

Sorry I mean device of course, I remember his face but mixed his name up.   I'd say Nip is a major downgrade but maybe Sweden and his longterm GF living there, it was enough to motivate him.   Slightly ironic when this game is so online currently but I guess these guys are not poor with so many prior wins and he has this luxury to do as he likes, he can make this choice if he feels like and Im being too negative on this new Nip squad when they are rated 13 in the world right now.
  Anyhow the match was in touching distance of going to 3 maps, close but no cigar

The Australian teams have been hit by a police investigation and 35 are suspended one to five years by ESIC, they were minor players but still very highly skilled and surely one or two would develop further and be relevant on the world stage with bigger potential earnings.   Considering criminal prosecution is possible and funds can be traced and have done in the past, losing the respect of any fan base which could carry on far past any limited strict career in the pro game its not really worth it.   Theres plenty of people who've played, not that great but become associated with the games like commentators or whatever and that can last a life time.  They really aren't being paid that much to throw in minor games from what I've heard

I dont know how to predict Dota but in CS a good team dynamic is like having 6 players, any note of that dynamic improving is worth advancing the team in possible wins.

NBK got sidelined which is silly as he is one of the best all round players but the French teams are messy stuck in the mud with little sign they will come back to the top again despite much talent they cannot sew it together.


Astralis have been more shaky, I think they'd be on top again in a LAN environment even missing dupreh but OG are outperforming now considering they arent top 10

You can learn on the job just dont gamble a large amount each turn while doing so.   I'd hope I would not fall foul of this example because I often bet low to start at least, but also I doubt I'd ever accumulate such a large amount as 20k because of avoiding the larger bet.   Seems like catch 22 to me, I guess you had to put a ton of time on smaller bets and in theory this might add up to greater risk and involvement in possible loss before collecting.    Not a fan of multiple if buts then maybe sometimes on conditions of, I'll surely trip up just playing the game on at least one count.   Sticking to what I know is not a bad idea but not being adventurous likely loses many decent offers that can pop up, I just prefer a few less catches with it.

So far as I know they must tax all potential gains deriving from QE and the government measures that effect and 'help' market assets including crypto.   It wouldnt be that unusual to do despite crypto being separated and not national based, its not much different from taxing a fine art dealer for the profits they may see rise during a booming economy.   We dont have the boom but we do have the monetary expansion so I dont think that occurs without clawing back any profits derived from it.
   I'd rather we have proper capitalism but of course we are so far away from that, its not likely central governments turn away any source of income possible.   I would like to know if that explains the reversal today, I had thought it possible but not immediately like this so I'm not convinced it sticks or forms a trend negatively.

Bad habits are usually a result of lack of patience, the simplest advice I would give for any casual bet is keep the size small until you are confident of the risk taken for the expected positive result.    
  Alot of the regrettable gambling is just not knowing the game properly or the risks and rewards, never do a large amount on unknowns and you will be fine more or less.   Alot of the time I think people just want some action and gamble without a plan, thats the aimless mood I would avoid putting any primary size bet on with.   The excess energy can be a negative and yep maybe best to go get some exercise or house work or whatever task to wear you down slightly in order to enter a more sensible settled mood for betting.

Heres the line Im looking at before we get higher prices extrapolated, we are past 50 day average and it appears BTC is strong but market might need more proof rather then just drifting upwards to such a point as 70k or similar.



I drew in trend not from great certainity but some marker of the pace with which we must continue upwards and challenge the upper line or possibly we do reverse despite the general positive sentiment recently.  I also noticed the Dollar index is looking weak, we failed to pass 92 area properly and start a bullish trend there and some speculate Dollar breaks down; this would match trend continuation for BTC also.

It does look alot like how I'd play, if they were drunk it'd make more sense but yea throw is unfortunately not that uncommon in proposition so vigilance is required.   What is harder to detect is special bets on a certain condition not the outright so much, so a bet on scoring at a certain time or quarter or an amount would be specific give good odds and not be as obvious.

A good relevant website to check for this and alot other prices would be pricedingold.   I'll post a screencap below but definitely one to bookmark for a good perspective on long term pricing and any mention of gold we are discussing decade long themes in markets and thats ok because Bitcoin is over a decade old now can be considered established as something of its own asset class.

Obviously we are talking different dynamics, gold might not gain 10% in the next 10 years but its not invalidated by that.   Not sure it can be immediately explained but its not a great idea to store all value in one sector or asset class, long term you need to lock gains and reduce risk certainly when moving out of your 20's and saving for pension etc.    The ultimate purpose of money is security not wealth or any other transient concern, if we do see extremes  in the world of any kind then money will come back to security for its values and every other asset class reduces based on its risk perception and yield.
   This kind of question is why Warren Buffet or similar have such disdain for crypto, they believe it is only risk based not valid in a recession is my guess however they need to explain themselves better and failed to do so.
  WB admits to have no take on technology development.   BTC is relevant to security so its not opposed to gold imo they have different purposes and performance variables likely now and forever.  Gold can gain 10% in a day so far as I know but would be a tectonic earthquake type move as it is larger then crypto, it is possible but generally crypto has higher velocity, volatility and trading returns likely growth returns also.


Also I'll throw this out there mostly so people can investigate for themselves at some point.  Nobody really escapes the influence of the largest asset prices and interplay across the economy

I think BTC will still go below 40k though many might disagree with me on the basis of the current trend.  There are always multiple time lines to trends with the greatest strength existing over the longest time periods, its also true the largest section of Bitcoin trend is represented at far lower prices including below 40k.  Its not that I know we go back down especially, not until we break in some way but Im fairly sure we return to a mean price and no market ever stays at purely the frothy top prices pushing upwards always.

  We will test lower, take the 200 day average as fair game.  Draw a line sideways at that point and we get 38k or so, this is only the prices existing at the year start and is in no way especially harsh in the wider picture so I think its a fair scenario to have listed as possible.

Right now its back to the 2 day average, thats a far better guide then just a fixed number.   We do have alot of traffic around all the 5's but I dont see signifance outside of the 50 day average being nearby and do I think even though we above that during this weekend it still needs to be resolved finally during the week also then prices can move into the next tier.  We could be discussing all the 6's and all the 7's but it'll be a while till all the prices rest in this area.  From here to 60k we have many of the closing weekly bars to contend, its crowded and complicated for now not an easy trade.