The light that reflects off of cryptoqueen is indeed pleasant to perceive.
it's cryptoquee en, apparently. ask micg (or her) why the extra "e". IDK. In other news: Interesting fight in the alt land... https://twitter.com/ameensol/status/1103739189529460736Apparently some VC guy thinks that eth is "loosing its lead" whatever this means. He probably means losing, albeit who knows, maybe its "lead" is getting loose (aka not tight), lol. |
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Bob has been way too upset during the bear market to have sold any amount significant enough to make your point relevant.
Have not SODL anything since I was openly discussing plans for my early retirement fund in 2017 (which, coincidentally, paid me out my first paycheck yesterday, to keep me going for the next 20 years) I would like to think I've been brutally honest with my intentions with regards to selling and hodling. I'm not here to screw anyone over, push any agenda, or be anything other than supportive of Bitcoin, long-term, and be a fun member of this community. I do have some tax liabilities that I need to meet this year, however, as a result of setting up my fund. (Why I keep whining about wanting to sell another $1M to "be happy" - only really executed 66% of my retirement plan. Enough to create the fund, but not entirely enough to take a one-time long-term capital gains tax payment and have leftovers in another rainy-day portfolio) Have been making estimated IRS Tax payments every quarter this year from my cash reserves, but figure I'm still on the line for a nontrivial low...ish six-figure tax payment. Likely to be liquidating 3,500 LTC in late March, to cover a significant portion of my liabilities, and cracking into another piggybank-portfolio to make up the difference (or not, if LTC goes significantly higher than $50 USD). I believe I stated in the past my next sell target for BTC is $11,000 USD. Likely to sell a block of 50 BTC at that point. Yes, you have been very open and coherent about it in your post history. I, obviously, can't attest if everything you say is true even if I personally believe it is. But you have always been very clear and verbose about your stash dealings. In fact it has been very interesting and instructional to learn about your experience... which is something many of us would like to be able to sorta replicate in the future if everything goes "according to the plan". Seconded. I have a pretty good memory and I remember BLB's discussion around 11K very well. |
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that ain't working for me. If I leave captcha out and simply login, it says: you have to solve captcha. If I don't login and click on the link to php, then it says: you have to login. catch-22. stupid bicycles and buses never work anymore ~330.. ~650..
??
man the numbers im thinking of are considerably higher.. like at least 10k btc. as in $40 million USD. as a starting number.
am i THAT decadent?
i SUPPOSE i could deal with 10 million USD, so 2.5k btc. but man thats gonna cramp my style and really limit who i can say "fuckyou" to.
EDIT: using $4,000 USD to make maths easier
yes you are, pal, at least at these USD levels. who has 10K btc? This is exchange type levels. There are only maybe 100-200 people/entities with this kind of stash. |
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There isn't enough bitcoin for all of today's millionaires to own an entire bitcoin each.
We won't call them millionaires anymore though, they will be known as "wholecoiners".
Nice! And "multicoiners" if double digits.  I think that three or more meets the definition of multi-,but hey what do I know. Double digits is some way higher levels, that's for sure. The 21 club is becoming more and more prestigious, too. heres to all of us reaching "fuckyoucoiner" levels. That sounds like a poll in the making. "How many coins does it take to reach fuckyoucoiner levels?" sounds good to me. im curious as to the numbers myself. FYC poll-good idea. My 2c. the "f you money" was in the movies. Stated as $2.5 mil here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdfeXqHFmPISomewhere expensive (Silly valley?) it could be more (maybe $10mil) $2500000/$3860=648 BTC, only probably two-five thou people have that worldwide. At 19780/btc it was 126 btc. How times change. |
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the fuc is wrong with captchas on this board?
maybe I am a robot.
EDIT: f-n moron, presumably robot, does not know how buses look like.
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There isn't enough bitcoin for all of today's millionaires to own an entire bitcoin each. We won't call them millionaires anymore though, they will be known as "wholecoiners". This may be the last chance for the average person to acquire a full bitcoin and that title. https://twitter.com/alecziupsnys/status/1102908165719506947?s=21I boldly claim to be the first one who came up with this observation. Must have been in 2015 or 2016 and i think it was in this forum. It is funny since I remember that back then this observation did not receive much attention, but in the last two years it appears in twitter, reddit and even crypto media outlets quite regularly. July 3, 2014. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=676030.msg7664884#msg7664884There were 29 million millionaires in the world in 2012 (probably more now). Each of them cannot get even a single bitcoin.
It is typical for millionaire home offices to allocate at least 5% to alternative investments.
If, instead of 5%, bitcoin will become just 1% of millionaires investment, the price at the equilibrium would have to be $40000 to achieve this allocation (1%).
This does not even take into consideration the other 99.4% of the humanity. |
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I get horrified and scared any time I see you guys talking about $100K or even $30K as if it was a SURE thing. What kind of capitulation is this?
This thread cannot be indicative of anything one way or another. In the mainstream investment world (cnbc, forbes, bloomberg) btc is dead and is being mostly ridiculed for 14 mo already. Objectively, the situation for most OECD area btc miners is still bad. No profits, less losses than a couple of months ago. BETI is close to almost all time low (-2.09 last time I checked vs -2.22 all time low). BTC is scraping barely above the 200 WMA. Are you NOT entertained? |
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But now when I look back. It turns out a good call. Because of panic or some luck, I sold my 80% portfolio at ATH.
I am still learning, slowly but I am much informed and prepared now in comparison of last year.
It's not selling that is difficult, it's buying back at the right time. A few could do it repeatedly. Usually, investors would not buy back a sold position even when the opportunity presents itself, and I am guilty of this myself (mostly in stocks). |
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Well that's audacious. How the hell can something like that be sustainable? They can do what they like with their own coin, can't they? Including closing shop when things get clumsy. Your coin, you say? Not yours anymore since you gave up your keys. Right, but I am afraid that services like this would proliferate soon. People hope against reason to consume without selling their btc. I expect bakkt to do something similar. |
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Well that's audacious. How the hell can something like that be sustainable? I looked at it. Very enticing if it truly works. 6% is a lot. However, 6% interest rate (in btc) sounds implausible. The only way I can see this working would be them lending your bitcoin to margin players, which pay 20% yearly. They (blockfii) also have cash lending program, but margin calls upon sudden plunges would be a worry there. I guess if someone would want to get $$ at $800/btc equivalent, then it might be reasonably safe (unlikely to receive a margin call). |
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I want to challenge the main premise here. BTC bottomed up on Jan 14 2015, NOT in August of 2015. The preponderance of evidence says it: 1. Daily closing was higher on ALL exchanges on Aug 24 vs Jan 14, 2015. 2. Only one or two exchanges had a deep plunge on Aug 24, 2015. In fact the LOWEST average exchange price on that day is $196.26 in comparison with $157.29 on Jan 14. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?period1=1420351200&period2=1443934800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1dConclusion: The fact that ONE exchange (was it stamp or finex, I don't remember) was affected intraday is totally irrelevant. Recorded BTC index price for that day (Aug 24) shows $196.26 intraday low, so this should be sufficient. Moving on to authors conclusions: 2012 low was 12 mo before halving 2015 low was almost 18 mo before halving on July 10, 2016 (and not 10 mo as per author's assertion). Counting from Dec 14 2018 local low, next halving would be in about 18 mo after low, which would actually fit the lengthening trend very well (12, 18, 18). TL;DR The author suggests a shrinking lead time, which is not supported by anything except an intraday low on one exchange. |
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Funny how that works, even though in Paleo times, I doubt that any of those shapes of women would even come close to any of the women in existence in those times, even the top most levels.
Surely a sign of the bad foods of modern life.
Perhaps they were not fat, but they surely desired to be, which is, of course, the opposite of our current (OECD) situation. Here is the 30 thou year old Venus of Willendorf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus_of_WillendorfWell I'm not a chubby chaser, the wife is a dime and a slim one at that she's under 110 when not pregnant. Maybe im more a realist right now. A chubby bitch in lingerie ain't bad.
A couple of general points: You need some body fat to get pregnant. Typically, women with BMI less than 19 have difficulty getting pregnant. |
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the trend is bullish
bitcoin's success keeps the warmth
hoping for the best
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We haven't seen a real capitulation yet.
ORLY. Why 6.5 to 3.1 was not it? Inquiring minds want to know.
I guess it depends :
-do you want to be rich now ?
-do you want to be richer later ?
I'm choosing "now" personally. I'm impatient. So yep I want the price to go up ASAP.
I would take 100K ASAP vs 1mil in 10 years anytime in the next year or two to be even more specific |
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When we talk of %invested, do we mean original amount invested, or current ratio? Because mine are VERY different.
That begs an interesting question with regard to rebalancing of investments. For any investment, it should represent a minimum and maximum % of the portfolio. Sales and purchases rebalance when it gets outside the range. I would guess BTC s limits for an investor would be a lot wider than for conventional investments (example min 2%, max 50%) but the balancing would still apply. Opinions will be interesting. Every single time I rebalanced my stock portfolio, I lost potential gains. The explanation is simple: winners (could be either individual stocks or sectors) continue to be winners and losers continue to be losers for much longer than you expect. In other words: make the initial allocation, then, if it works, don't balance anything, apart from cashing out. |
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IMHO its too early to break out of the high $3k - $4k range. Am inclined to think we will be around this range until mid year.
What about: Late March - early April up to weekly MA20 ($4.1k) Late April - early May down to weekly MA200 ($3.5k) Late June - early July up to weekly MA50 ($5-$5.5k) Early to mid August down to weekly MA200 ($4k) Early to mid October breakout above all 3 MAs ($4.5k) Late October - early Nov short term peak ($6k-$9k) before normalizing above $6K and growing further. Plausible. Interestingly, there is one pertinent tradeview post (not mine) that suggests to buy, buy, buy once we clear the MA50 [edit: weekly MA50 that is] (somewhere between 5 and 5.5K). https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ODEYA3RI-WHEN-TO-GO-ALL-IN-IN-BITCOIN/ |
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With all due respect, why are we supposed to repeat prior flat mo for mo?
So far, at a macro level, it matches almost exactly. Don’t ask me why, I just work here. Everyone expected a plunge in January because it would be the same as in 2015, but it happened in December instead, so not really almost exactly. I grant you that there is some similarity so far, but IMHO, this would go away soon. One of the bigger differences will probably be that the next bull run won't be as much explosive as the previous ones. Otherwise Bitcoin would reach a ridiculous price... something I don't think will happen with just one single bull run. The curve must tend to gradually flatten. How much? Noone knows. We keep declining above 80% (84-94%) after each peak, however, we increase smaller and smaller % in each cycle. This would result in a lower low after a couple of cycles. If the decreasing trend in X-factor increase of each peak ( X36 to X17 to X8 to X3.76 to X1.77; bold numbers indicate what already happened) is followed by about 84% plunge each time, then btc would peak at about 595K and then starts declining with lower lows for both peak and trough each time 595K (peak) to 95K (trough), then 95K to 168K (peak), then 168K to 27K (trough), etc. |
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