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4641  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Don't know what to say, but earn BTC while you learn. on: December 25, 2022, 04:13:32 AM
This should not be that hard to break considering there is only 228 words and assuming the seed phrase has 12 words only and if you only know the address and/or derivation path. The hard part is writing the code to break it which is only time consuming to get the Fibonacci logic right on this table, then you can check about 300k to 400k permutations per second easily on CPU.
Although you didn't publish neither the address nor the encrypted jumbled words.

If we take 12 words from the 228 words, there will be 30,689,926,618,143,230,000 combinations.
I think your calculation may be wrong. The options are a lot more limited than that. If you select the first word the next 11 are selected automatically (the Fibonacci sequence meaning  1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144). So you only have 1 selection from 228 words and you can't select (228-144)th word assuming the table is not cyclical which I don't think it is, meaning you select from 84 words only.
Now you have to multiply that in different directions (rows, columns and diagonal).
4642  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: If we want people to be their own bank, we have to rethink things. A Proposal on: December 25, 2022, 03:11:54 AM
I agree that we have a UI unfriendliness problem and a lack certain features. But I disagree with wanting to see all that in bitcoin core project or by their team. Because that would put pressure on those developers and would also grow the project size which would make it harder to review, maintain and update.

Let core be core and let other developers enter the scene and built stuff on top of core or even as standalone projects (like Electrum). That way we have dedicated team to a dedicated feature who don't have to worry about the backend (eg. core) and having to merge all their stuff in their project or having to follow their conventions or even programming language (ie. C++).

For example a C#, Python, Rust,... dev can not contribute to the C++ core (or make any major contribution). But they can create projects on top of core in the programming language they are expert at. That way we are also expanding the development circle hence making bitcoin even more decentralized.
4643  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin December price on: December 24, 2022, 01:53:22 PM
December is about 12 days left, and the current price is around $16600, it doesn't look like there will be any big surprises, maybe the highest price still to be reached is $19k, and the lowest is probably $15k, any option from that price then i won't sell bitcoin, probably will buy more and hold long term.
The economical situation around the world is getting harder for most people and I assume it affected new users in a way or another by reducing their numbers or limiting the amount they are willing to spend... If we added to that the crash of some services (FTX...) and seized bitcoin dumped in the market then we can say that bitcoin price this year isn't that bad and I expect a return to +$20k in the first months of the next year.
The good news for bitcoin is that the governments in US and EU have been printing money nonstop which only means one thing: inflation. Whenever inflation happens and fiat money loses its value, it is an excellent news for bitcoin because not only it automatically increases bitcoin price but also helps more people around the world realize why a deflationary currency is a good thing to have so it also increases bitcoin adoption hence increasing bitcoin value.
4644  Economy / Economics / Re: California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages on: December 24, 2022, 01:25:48 PM
It's true America's sitting on energy reserves for Americans to use if a war starts.
Didn't they already release a large percentage of their strategic reserves? I think it was about 40% to 50% of the it dumped on the market to decrease the price. Right now about 300 million barrels remaining and US consumes 19 million barrels per day. In other words if any war breaks out that cuts off their supplies they only have oil for 15-16 days!
4645  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Russia to legalize crypto for international trade on: December 24, 2022, 01:09:32 PM
We all know that trading crypto in Russia is already banned. Even p2p transactions are not allowed and there are laws against it.
Is there any source for this because so far I have only seen statements by random people claiming the decision makers should start banning bitcoin not that it is already banned.

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Thus, I think this new decision is just to avoid sanctions from USA
Wrong. You can not avoid sanctions by using bitcoin because the source and destination are still known. The only reason why countries use bitcoin for their international trade is to replace US dollar which is an attack on US economy considering it will get completely destroyed if the world stopped using dollar.

BTW this is not new and there is a topic about it here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5412477.0
4646  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: December 24, 2022, 05:04:40 AM
Conspiracy theories are incredibly popular.  Their occurrence is absolutely natural.  In fact, they replace religion for non-believers. 

People very often face incredibly complex social and historical processes that cannot be comprehended with the help of modern human thinking (in particular, with the help of logic and the scientific method). 

Therefore, people use simplified schemes for analysis, thereby trying to fight chaos. 
Conspiracy theories were invented by governments who wanted to silence whistleblowers and anybody who was criticizing their corrupted moves. Which is why they became popular.
For example a couple of years ago whenever anybody criticized the COVID19 vaccines they were branded as crazy conspiracy theorists and today the West is still struggling with the Pandemic and they have tens of thousands of new cases every day with hundreds of deaths in US alone.
The most recent one is the Energy Crisis in Europe which people called a "conspiracy theory" and now the crisis is showing its ugly head (eg. the de-industrialization of EU or the 2 hour blackout in London recently).
4647  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: TRUTH WILL ALWAYS SURFACE on: December 24, 2022, 04:50:41 AM
many new comers to the crypto have this wrong idea that [...] all other coins is a scam project
Majority of altcoins are scam projects specially among the top 10 coins that had gotten too pumped because of the centralized authorities behind them with deep pockets.

In any case this is not a new thing for people to see FUD in the media and negatively judge bitcoin. These days they see the energy FUD and call bitcoin "wasteful", some years ago (pre 2013) they saw all the Silk Road drama and called bitcoin "drug dealer money", and a lot more.
Seeing how centralized and scamy altcoins are or how risky centralized exchanges are and how they scam people is not new either. The media is also on the side of FUD which makes it very hard to counter it.
4648  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is address blacklisting possible on BTC? on: December 24, 2022, 04:04:34 AM
Due to the high level of network congestion
I'm not sure if this is hypothetical or you are confusing bitcoin with an altcoin like ethereum. But in the past 13 years we only had "high level of network congestion" for a couple of months in 2017 when there was the biggest spam attack on bitcoin network in history, some of which was funded by centralized altcoins like DASH.
4649  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Port EVM Livetree #Collective smart contracts to Bitcoin network - on: December 24, 2022, 03:58:19 AM
our Layer 1 does not support smart contracts at all.
Every single bitcoin script IS a smart contract! Only certain functionalities that a "currency" does not really need are not available in bitcoin scripts.

The smart contracts are currently deployed to 6 EVM chains (Ethereum, Moonbeam, Moonriver, Celo, Unique, Quartz) and I think it could potentially really add traction to the mass adoption of Bitcoin
I disagree because none of those platforms have any adoption whatsoever except gamblers (who invest in tokens hoping profit) and scammers (who create tokens to empty other people's pockets). They have shown no real world applications so far.
4650  Economy / Economics / Re: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy on: December 23, 2022, 12:23:24 PM
The only miracle would be Republicans winning both chambers of Congress, as well as, the White House in the US. That would turn the tide of the war in Russia's favor. After all, Republicans in the US said they will cut off support to Ukraine if they win. Considering that the US is a major supporter of Ukraine, backing down at a later time would result in a complete disaster for world countries. I can't imagine how things are going to get worse once this happens.

Say bye-bye to the economy if Russia continues to escalate after it defeats Ukraine. It will probably attack Poland, Finland, Sweden and other neighboring countries (including those within the EU), greatly putting our world order at risk. Don't expect central banks to fix inflation, especially when Russia is disrupting the energy market. These are hard times we're living into, so we should be prepared for the worst. Who knows what will happen in 2023? Just my opinion Smiley
Such big decisions don't change based on which political party controls congress or the government. In US they have always been pretty much in complete agreement when it comes to warmongering with only slight differences in the tactics they use. In other words US will continue fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian despite who controls congress/whitehouse.

I also disagree with Russia continuing its attack on other countries. There is no evidence of that so far. In fact the more possible scenario is an internal war between different European countries specially in the Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Basically the West would attack any EU member that wishes to normalize relations with Russia. That is what Poland's purpose is and why they are being armed and exactly why they warned Germany against normalization (bringing up WWII, etc.).

The 2023 will be mostly unpredictable though... That I agree with.
4651  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin Die or Pump Up in 2023? on: December 23, 2022, 12:12:00 PM
Those are not the only two options! Bitcoin may never rise up again and still continue staying strong and provide its unique utility to the entire world as the only decentralized payment system.

According to Elon Musk, the price of Bitcoin will increase by the end of winter.
Nobody really cares what Elon says about bitcoin ever since he started his FUD campaign a long time ago.

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And we should not lose hope.
You should educate yourself about what bitcoin is and stop seeing it as a profit machine!

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And I believe in Elon Musk's words, so you should continue to believe.
Nobody doubts that bitcoin price will start rising in the near future but as I said Elon Musk lost all credibility when he showed his true colors. He is just a big troll and I go as far as calling him a scammer who attempted market manipulation which worked for Doge and only once to a little degree about bitcoin. His subsequent attempts failed miserably though and now he is trying to regain that attention again hoping people have forgotten his FUD campaign and market manipulation...
4652  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: December 23, 2022, 04:36:06 AM
What people intentionally ignore when talking about Russian oil/gas sales is the amount of money they've already earned this past 9 months from their sales which was way beyond their wildest imaginations and beyond what they could have earned if they never invaded Ukraine. In simple terms even if Russian energy export falls to zero today, they still make profit!
This is due to the fact that energy prices soared to the moon and the fact that Europe has been strengthening Russian Ruble preventing it from falling.
I totally agree with you, the Invasion of Ukraine is a two-way strategy to increase wealth from oil.
Russia is not a stupid country, they must have learned from their predecessor, namely the Soviet Union which once ran rampant in the world. This ban has been Putin's calculation, of course, Putin will remain confident because most European countries are already dependent on them, it cannot be denied that this is what happened, the sanctions they received from Europe and America did not really affect Russia (in fact, there are benefits behind that). and Russia I noticed now that in the shadow of the global economic recession, Russia still looks stable.
Europe is sandwiched in this strategy, on the one hand banning Russian Gas, but on the other hand, they are already dependent on Russian gas. and forced European countries inevitably to buy expensive oil from Russia because they need it.

The countries that benefit the most from this ban are gas and oil-producing countries.
The main thing here is that America is the world's largest oil producer, followed by Russia and Saudi Arabia.

my bad thoughts, are they behind all this?
You are right. The way to analyze this current global situation is to look at it as a conflict between two blocs in the world the East and the West not just two countries. In other words this is not so much about Russia "not being a stupid country" or "learning from past" but mostly about the Eastern Bloc working better than the Western Bloc as an alliance; not to mention that the majority of resources are in the East so there is already an upper hand in the East.

* In the Eastern bloc when they sanctioned Russia they just replaced those who left their economy with someone else (most of it anyways). For example their gas and oil went to India, China, Pakistan, etc. and even used Iranian channels that were built in the past 4 decades to circumvent sanctions.
* But in the Western bloc they are working against each other. For example US keeps printing more money and exports its resulting inflation to its allies in EU crashing their economy while absorbing part of the capital that leaves EU speeding up the de-industrialization of EU. That is while they also sell EU LNG and oil at an extremely high price (while Russia sells it in Eastern bloc at a discount!). As you said "Europe is sandwiched in this strategy".
The situation inside the European Union isn't good either. Stronger countries like UK and France and "squeezing" weaker countries like Italy, Greece and Balkans for their own survival.
4653  Bitcoin / Electrum / Re: Electrum desktop wallet question. on: December 23, 2022, 04:20:18 AM
You need to turn off memorize keywords/autofill on your browser.
Electrum is a stand alone desktop application that has nothing to do with your web browser, meaning any settings in your browser is not going to affect Electrum in any way.
4654  Bitcoin / Electrum / Re: Electrum desktop wallet question. on: December 23, 2022, 03:39:57 AM
The problem is not with desktop wallets, the problem is with your environment. For example if you are using windows and connect to the internet with it, there is a good chance that it gets infected with some sort of malware/keylogger and when you use a bitcoin wallet you can lose your funds (among other risks).

This is why the term "hot wallet" exists. The solution is to use "cold storage" and only use your hot wallet for small amounts.
Cold storage is basically an air-gap system that has never been connected to the outside world (through the internet or otherwise) and never will connect. You can use a dedicated system (like an old laptop) or use a secondary OS (even live Linux).
Another way is to buy a hardware wallet and make things simple on yourself.

https://electrum.readthedocs.io/en/latest/coldstorage.html
4655  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Figuring out the "actual" price of a token on: December 23, 2022, 03:19:56 AM
Different price in different sources (including exchanges not just price reporting websites) depends on a lot of factors in addition to what others said.
For example sometimes the coin you are looking at is dead (has no blockchain) so nobody can transfer that coin between exchanges and the price difference can not be used as Arbitrage so it remains different. Sometimes one exchange's wallet is dead (maintenance, etc.) that prevents deposits of that shitcoin and nobody has it to dump so the price could go higher or remain higher while it dumps elsewhere hence creating a difference.
4656  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Do nodes share their mempool with each other? on: December 23, 2022, 03:00:54 AM
I'm not a programmer. I believe it is possible to spam the mempool if nodes would keep the entire mempool. A single person can generate 1M transactions by burning 0.5 BTC. The mempool would be unable to store all of the valid transactions due to RAM usage. I suppose some nodes might keep some mempool transactions while keeping others on different nodes.
This type of spam like any other type of spam requires paying a lot of fee in total specially since it also increases the fee so for example if they start at 1 sat/vb they will increase it to 100 sat/vb while their older transactions with low fee would be dropped out of mempool.
With 0.5BTC you can only create about roughly 100k transactions not a million.
4657  Economy / Economics / Re: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy on: December 22, 2022, 02:39:19 PM
~
There are two possible outcomes, since both the sides have ruled out ceasefire:

Ukrainian defeat: Russia mobilizes even more people, sends in an army of >1 million and conquers half of Ukraine. Probability is low, since the public mood in Russia is against anymore mobilization drives. And with the current armed forces strength (200,000 + 300,000 mobilized reserves), it is not possible for Russia to achieve a quick victory.

Russian defeat: Crude oil prices plummet to 2020 levels (~40 dollars per barrel). Russian budget revenue decreases and it gets impossible for them to continue with the war. The chances of this scenario is also quite low, since OPEC and Biden doesn't want lower oil prices.
It is way too soon to talk about defeat since this war is going to drag on for a long time.

Right now the Russian strategy is to stand back (after they captured strategic positions over the past couple of months) and slowly destroy Ukraine's infrastructure hoping they can break their forces while they shell any progressing forces to get high casualties. Unless Ukraine can break this strategy and push Russians back in the coming weeks, their chances of sustained resistance decreases significantly over time.
This is the least of what we are going to see all through winter.

As for oil prices, regardless of the result of this conflict there are a lot of other factors affecting that. For one the Russian oil has to come back to European markets at large to bring the price down and considering sanctions and the relationship with the West, I don't see that happening.
2 other important factors are China and whether they are going to be pulled into a war with Taiwan (or maybe even Japan!!) that could significantly decrease demand and bring the price down (here).
And whether the oil producing countries like Saudis are going to be allowed to increase production. As we speak the tensions between Yemen and Saudis is growing and over the past month multiple tankers stealing Yemenis oil were hit. Next target could be their oil infrastructure (the only thing preventing it so far has been FIFA World Cup in Qatar).

P.S. I disagree with the last sentence. US is actually too desperate to bring energy price down. This has been their strategy ever since they invented "Petrodollar" they first increased the oil price to force other countries to buy the massive amount of fiat they had printed (like during Pandemic) to buy the extra expensive oil. Then they ordered their colonies like Saudis to increase production and decrease price so that the high energy price doesn't move US economy into a recession+inflation combo.
This time they could not do that and US is experiencing both. FED has already increased interest rates multiple times and I believe right now it is somewhere close to 5% which means it has also lost its effectiveness in controlling inflation...
4658  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Should your wife or husband know your seed phrase? on: December 22, 2022, 02:12:50 PM
In fact you could even take one step further and create a multi signature wallet with 2 seed phrases, one kept by the man and the other with the woman. That way the bitcoins and the wallet is truly shared.
2 seed phrase which means 2-of-2 multi signature wallet? Sounds risky to me if one of them lose their seed phrase.
Technically this is not an additional risk because it is the same with a single key wallets (single seed) if you lose that one seed you lose your wallet also. The assumption here is that each key is kept safely and with proper backups.
The alternative would be 2-of-3 with the third key stored with a third party (eg. a bank safety deposit box) so that it can be recovered if any of the 2 keys were lost.
4659  Economy / Economics / Re: Vegetable Prices Soar 40% as Crops Fail Under Extreme Weather on: December 22, 2022, 12:30:13 PM
Humanity produces four times the food on 2/3s Less land then we did 100 years ago.   
Things are getting BETTER.  Not worse.   
Things have actually gotten both better an worse Tongue
Obviously technology has helped increase the efficiency and reduce waste so now we are seeing more yields and better products which is the good part. But at the same time a large part of the agriculture industry specially in the West has been genetically manipulating crops to increase production and efficiency that has led to reduced product quality that can even cause cancer! Which is the bad part.
4660  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: December 22, 2022, 12:15:51 PM
What people intentionally ignore when talking about Russian oil/gas sales is the amount of money they've already earned this past 9 months from their sales which was way beyond their wildest imaginations and beyond what they could have earned if they never invaded Ukraine. In simple terms even if Russian energy export falls to zero today, they still make profit!
This is due to the fact that energy prices soared to the moon and the fact that Europe has been strengthening Russian Ruble preventing it from falling.
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