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4661  Economy / Speculation / Re: Future BTC's price on: January 22, 2019, 01:55:23 PM
I consider it a issue that security through mining relies on TX fees in the future. There should be some sort of on-going emission to fund miners in the future.

I think this is a fair point. It makes the future much less predictable. There's no guarantee that the long term economic design (a hard limit on supply) pans out as expected

This question has been discussed before and with no definitive solution in sight

For example, I maintain that the concept of "sound money" is not a very good one, especially if we talk about a currency aspect of money (as opposed to its store of value one). But that's kinda obvious, provided you have a half-functioning brain and do not obsess with the idea of fiat being inherently evil. But I don't know how you are going to replicate in a cryptocurrency the capacity of fiat money to adjust its supply according to the needs of the economy (see the concept of endogenous money to better understand what I'm talking about)
4662  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: January 22, 2019, 12:32:00 PM
That was years ago

And I was one of the first users of this facet (my ID is in the second thousand). Back then it was only a facet and nothing else. Interestingly, when I was leaving the site, I set my share percentage to 100%, i.e. all my referral commissions were paid back to my referrals, and let the forum know. And what d'ya think, some dude managed to earn 0.0026 BTC through his referral payments to me paid back to him (good for him, I don't mind)
~

Wow, 100% back! No wonder you've got so many referrals then

Actually, the majority of referrals came even before the introduction of the share system and likely even before the casino part of the site appeared (i.e. when it was only a faucet). I think it was around 2014 and back then you could just place a link with your referral code somewhere and have a bunch of users becoming your referrals in an hour or so. Times are different now, and these days you can't lure anyone even by paying them back everything

@TheQuin Can you tell how many lottery tickets should I buy for increasing my FREE BTC rewards to +0.00001083 BTC?

I'm also interested in finding that out
4663  Economy / Gambling / Re: BitStakes.io - Ultra Fast Dice, Roulette, PvP Coinflip - Social Gambling Site on: January 22, 2019, 12:11:13 PM
you do realise that running a bitcointalk advertising campaign even for a few weeks will cost you at least a couple of bitcoins? if the site is new and barely has money to fund its bankroll (which I still expect to see in this topic, the proof of funds, that is) there are better ways to spend coins and cheaper ways of advertising too bitcointalk signature camapign is in a way a quality assurance mark the sites that run them are doing fine and can afford to spend money on premium advertisment to the target audience except , of course the ICO campaigns that can be scams more often than not

Sorry for formatting your text into a somewhat readable form

I agree that running a signature campaign may be too expensive unless you already have really wealthy investors. On the other hand, instead of spending money on advertising, why not go the route of allowing outside investments in the casino bankroll? A couple years ago it was a hot topic, and a few casinos allowed this kind of investment. One of them (forgot its name, though) after acquiring enough publicity and bankroll, returned the money invested and ran on its own since then (don't know what's become of it, either)
That's actually a good idea but I don't think it will be effective now since there's already a lot of players in the market.
Investors are more cautious now due to the big rate of scams in crypto, but if a site has a very good model to run that is unique and will gain market, maybe investors will be attractive, but there's only a lesser chance.

Some gambling sites like Bitdice which are already operating and also running a signature campaign, still conducted an ICO in the past and they were successful, so it's not only for the new comers but also for the existing one

Yes, ICO is another good path to "success"

In this case, it is more like an IPO when a privately-owned company turns into a public one by offering shares in the open market. The difference between direct investing in the bankroll and an ICO is that in the former case (i.e. with direct investing) casinos have more leeway in their operation. For example, they can close this possibility any day they see fit or even return the money invested if they choose so (i.e. make investors disinvest). This is not the case with ICO as I understand it

I guess nowadays investors will prefer investing in ICO as they will receive better income when the casino will be a success

The sad truth is when the casino will be a success, it won't need outside money
4664  Economy / Economics / Re: What are the odds that the government/banks will truly create their own coin? on: January 22, 2019, 12:01:58 PM
There is some test of digital yen ongoing
Biggest will be digital Yuan i have been reading from legitimate sources that China is working on it.Circle stable coin will be something like us digital dollar
That kind of coins will be norm in some future i guess
It will cut trading costs

Most fiat monies are already digital these days

I'm almost 100% sure that what you refer to here has nothing to do with government cryptocurrencies based on the blockchain technologies. Most likely, the "digital" something is a payment system which allows people to make payment bypassing banks or already existing payment channels like Visa or MasterCard. If it is in fact something different, let me know and I'll happily admit being wrong. But not till then
4665  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions on: January 22, 2019, 11:48:17 AM
As I get it, no one is actually believing in Bitcoin here

And all that noise that people were making nonstop 24/7 about Bitcoin being "digital gold", "the best store of value ever", "world money", it was all thorough bullshit and elaborate lie, right? So is there a soothing light at the end of the tunnel or is it just the freight train coming our way? On the other hand, Russia not doing well financially (with that freight train coming their way) may be desperately looking for a way out ("wunderwaffe"), and in that case we can expect many strange decisions not quite in line with sound reasoning and logic, bordering on insane

I don't think it's a lack of belief, it's more of believing that Russia will not be able to afford to risk that amount for long-term gains. A lot of believers here are in for the long haul so they couldn't care less about how well Bitcoin is doing in the short term -- something that Russia should probably be very concerned about

But the same question may be asked why they are buying gold then

Russia has been actively buying gold for over a decade by now, since 2006 to be exact:



And given that the gold market is not every elastic overall, i.e. you can't sell industrial-scale amounts of gold without crashing the prices (as something like that had probably happened in 2008), so it is not something that Russia should care about in the short term. Personally, I'm inclined to think that it is just a waste of money anyway as gold won't help the Russian government even in the long-term either. But from this perspective, Bitcoin is not much different from gold (likely just as useless)
4666  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading on: January 22, 2019, 09:48:44 AM
How come Bitfinex BTC lending rates are so low lately? Around 0.27% today and it's been like that for bit.

because short levels halved over the past few weeks. shorts started getting squeezed on the run to the $4200s and they've been closing ever since. less demand for shorts = lenders offering lower rates

Actually, interest rates just show interest in asset

As the name itself kinda suggests. Whether it is a positive interest or a negative one is another question as people don't necessarily borrow money to open shorts. They can just easily borrow to open longs.

He's right that less demand for borrowed BTC is causing lower rates

But that's not because of shorts specifically, which was his point exactly

You (and him) seem to forget that it is not just about USD and Bitcoin. Bitcoin to other currencies is the same as the dollar to Bitcoin. For example, people can be buying Litecoin (or any other coin, for that matter) with bitcoins borrowed and in this case no shorts are involved but bitcoins are still get borrowed, right?

Nothing bodes well for price presently, and interest rates should be your least concern

I guess you don't use sentiment as an indicator? I always look at longs vs. shorts and open interest to gauge the commitments of traders. When most traders are piled on one side of the market, they're usually wrong.

When nothing else bodes well, obviously
4667  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: January 22, 2019, 09:33:43 AM
Somehow I thought that the payouts are made as soon as the referral commission gets credited to your account, so it shouldn't lead to a visible decrease in the account balance, but obviously this was not the case. I don't particularly care but why not add this option by paying back instantly? In this way people who sign up for this "initiative" will be able to see that they are really paid back without having to wait for half a week (on average)

It's just a technical issue. All rolls are processed and balances updated real-time as a priority task by the main servers and everything else runs from timed scripts on lower priority servers. We currently process 60 to 80 million rolls a day and update over 18 million balances in real time. Adding the task of processing referral share back would be a lot of extra load on those servers

I think it shouldn't be a lot of overhead if any

Technically, you don't even have to first credit the referral commission to the referred user account and then debit it with the share paid back to the referral. You can just credit the referral account balance directly without all this chit-chat between balances. As you can see, it can in fact diminish the load on the servers if implemented properly. And I think it is definitely worth the job as it will allow referrals to see if they are actually paid back as promised. But it is up to you, of course, as I'm not the one who is being paid back here
4668  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Blockchain values to maintain in 2019 on: January 22, 2019, 08:34:06 AM
There is no doubt that everybody want things to always work-out in their favor and when it doesn't, they opt-out easily. Most people are disregarding the fact that blockchain is still a new technology that would take time to adopt and implement. It is only when we see it as such that we would be able to hold on to it. We cannot expect a newborn baby to start working or running right from birth.

but unfortunately at the moment this "newborn baby" is being used in the wrong way.
nowadays I keep seeing it being mentioned in weirdest contexts which it doesn't even belong. each time it reminds me of that meme where the guy goes to his boss and tells him we have to adopt blockchain technology and keeps on hyping it up with nonsense

If you were here a couple years ago you could feel that with your skin

I had been ridiculed, laughed at or otherwise made fun of when I was telling people that blockchain has very specific use cases (with one of these being cryptocurrencies), that it doesn't offer anything that other technologies wouldn't offer too but without its overhead. It is not so much the ignorance that was astonishing (you kinda get used to it) but impenetrable obstinacy that typically goes along with it
4669  Economy / Speculation / Re: On stagnating prices on: January 22, 2019, 07:35:54 AM
Bitcoin is not slowly going up or slowly going down type of currency, it stays put for a whole time and than one day BOM it goes up or down. So do not be worried about the stagnancy because that is what bitcoin has been forever, ever since the early days price always stood still for long time periods and than changed all of a sudden

That's how the market fools the majority of traders

That is, at first the price starts to move in a rather narrow range, then people start complaining about the market being boring. In order to squeeze more profits they reduce their spreads and increase the size of their orders. And when there is enough liquidity on both sides of the price (as well as shorts), there comes a breakout, either way. People see that they either lost profit opportunities by selling too early or just lost money by setting their buy orders too high. It happens all the time as people can't override their psychology
4670  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading on: January 22, 2019, 07:10:33 AM
How come Bitfinex BTC lending rates are so low lately? Around 0.27% today and it's been like that for bit.

because short levels halved over the past few weeks. shorts started getting squeezed on the run to the $4200s and they've been closing ever since. less demand for shorts = lenders offering lower rates

Actually, interest rates just show interest in asset

As the name itself kinda suggests. Whether it is a positive interest or a negative one is another question as people don't necessarily borrow money to open shorts. They can just easily borrow to open longs. In fact, the highest rates in USD that I ever saw at Bitfinex were exactly when Bitcoin had been skyrocketing. It was obvious that people were buying bitcoins on margin to sell them later when the price rise gave them enough profits. As soon as Bitcoin started to go down, USD interest rates went down too

this doesn't bode well for price, tbh

Nothing bodes well for price presently, and interest rates should be your least concern
4671  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: January 22, 2019, 06:47:56 AM

So if anyone is interested in this "one-time offer", i.e. in getting their referral payments back, let me know
I'm interested in getting your details for that, seems a generous offer however I'm not that great at referring people so much

Look here for more info

Did you enable payout to referrals? Some payout settings might be enabled by default

This shouldn't in the least affect my visible balance

The payouts you refer to come from my referral commissions, i.e. not from free rolls, and they are made before they are reflected on my balance as far as I can judge. This table doesn't show any payouts, and as I understand it, the incoming value should match the outgoing. If anything, my balance should have increased, not diminished, in any case (unless I pay back 100%, of course). But maybe I'm missing something else or there might be a bug after all

That is actually what happened. All referral income is added to your main balance at the instant it is made and then at the end of the week the share back is taken from your main balance

This is the conclusion that I finally arrived at myself (by excluding everything else)

Somehow I thought that the payouts are made as soon as the referral commission gets credited to your account, so it shouldn't lead to a visible decrease in the account balance, but obviously this was not the case. I don't particularly care but why not add this option by paying back instantly? In this way people who sign up for this "initiative" will be able to see that they are really paid back without having to wait for half a week (on average)
4672  Economy / Gambling / Re: BitStakes.io - Ultra Fast Dice, Roulette, PvP Coinflip - Social Gambling Site on: January 21, 2019, 06:29:24 PM
you do realise that running a bitcointalk advertising campaign even for a few weeks will cost you at least a couple of bitcoins? if the site is new and barely has money to fund its bankroll (which I still expect to see in this topic, the proof of funds, that is) there are better ways to spend coins and cheaper ways of advertising too bitcointalk signature camapign is in a way a quality assurance mark the sites that run them are doing fine and can afford to spend money on premium advertisment to the target audience except , of course the ICO campaigns that can be scams more often than not

Sorry for formatting your text into a somewhat readable form

I agree that running a signature campaign may be too expensive unless you already have really wealthy investors. On the other hand, instead of spending money on advertising, why not go the route of allowing outside investments in the casino bankroll? A couple years ago it was a hot topic, and a few casinos allowed this kind of investment. One of them (forgot its name, though) after acquiring enough publicity and bankroll, returned the money invested and ran on its own since then (don't know what's become of it, either)
4673  Economy / Gambling / Re: Roobet. The Honest Casino - No Fees, 100+ altcoins, BTC + more soon. on: January 21, 2019, 05:32:56 PM
...

You don't get it

It is one thing for simple gamblers to attack each other with whatever strong language they want to use (though even this should not be tolerated but moderated). And it is a totally different thing for the staff to use such language at all in a public chatbox, not even speaking of the site owner himself (as it turned out to be). Anyway, let's hope this lesson serves them right and they will refrain from this stuff in the future. Just don't try to make it look like it was not a big deal and nothing happened

I would like to personally apologise for the language i used. Yes they were IRL friends of mine, how ever it doesnt excuse the language i used. Please note that i have taken onboard all the comments made and shall make sure its not repeated. I do not want this event to take away from the product i have worked so hard on creating, as well as a fun user experience. I apprecaite you pointing this out and again apologise.
Well sh*t do really happens but atleast we do really understand your part and as been said above this should really be a lesson learn for you guys. Bad publicity on how you communicate
would really give out first impressions that would last.You like or not it would surely affect your site no matter how good it is

I am curious who was that "gentry" guy

Someone registers with the forum at 09:49:59 AM, writes a wall of text at 10:03:40 AM to claim that it's nothing of the ordinary, and then disappears to never be seen again. As to me, it looks extremely fishy. And when no one takes him seriously (well, me at least), we see the site owner himself coming to apologize here. I guess it should have been done in reverse order if the point was to fix things, not to break them further
4674  Economy / Speculation / Re: Tone Vays Is 85% Certain Bitcoin (BTC) Hasn’t Hit True Bottom on: January 21, 2019, 05:17:01 PM
Now try to gauge the price dynamics taking into account the possibility that we may be stuck in this range (say, 3k-4k) for years to come. In fact, that would be a pretty volatile range for the total majority of commodities, most blue chips as well as government bonds (e.g. treasuries). So how are you going to look at this rebound other than a major reversal? In other words, things should be assessed from a correct perspective. The one based on past performance is definitely not the right one in this market

in other words, "this time it's different" aka the most dangerous words in investing, lol. i don't have any interest in predicting what's going to happen the next few years. i do have an interest in observing when a capitulation bottom has occurred, because the subsequent rally is usually very profitable (unlike the recent bounce off the $3100s).

Well, if the recent rally was not good enough for you, then which is?

Just in case, after the December crash (I refer to 2018, obviously) we started from $3200 and rose to almost $4400 (Bitfinex prices) which is like (4400-3200)/3200x100=37%. If you consider this as not very profitable for just a month, then I don't know, you turn out to be an extremely greedy guy, possibly beyond reasonable limits (given the current market, at least)

And yes, I think that this time it is different. You see, if I'm proved wrong, I'm okay with that as I will only lose part of my future profits. But if, on the other hand, I'm proved right after all, I will preserve my capital mostly intact (by massive hedging) and may even earn something (via shorts). I think this is a good trade-off, any way you look at it
4675  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: To save bitcoin - stop buying bitcoin cash on: January 21, 2019, 04:01:08 PM
Who is buying bitcoin cash at all? I heard no word about it for a long time, even on trading discussion nobody mention it. Am I wrong?

That's a great question. I don't understand why people would buy it. What is their motivation? Nobody uses it for anything and its just as speculative as coins 100x smaller in size. Over the course of the last year its been dying a long, slow death, which was somewhat accelerated after the fork

But do you understand people who are buying Bitcoin?

As essentially everything you say about Bitcoin Cash can be said about Bitcoin itself. The majority of Bitcoin users are using it for speculation or hold it in hope of selling it later at a higher price (which is the same speculation). So how is Bitcoin particularly different from Bitcoin Cash in this department? Note that I don't mean to say that Bitcoin Cash is better or even on par with Bitcoin, it is just what you say is equally applicable to any other cryptocurrency out there

There is some truth to your statement but the fact is bitcoin has far more actual real world utility than any other crypto -- probably 100x more such utility than Bcash. So, compared to other currencies or traded items, yes, BTC is mostly speculative. Compared to all other cryptos its the least speculative. Bcash is a failed experiment and more of a get-rich-quick scheme, just like SV is currently proving itself to be.

I don't necessarily disagree with you

But in this case it doesn't make any real difference. For example, if only 0.001% (or let it be 1%, if you disagree with my number) of all bitcoins is actually used for anything other than speculation, while Bitcoin Cash is not used at all, technically you could say that Bitcoin has 1M times more utility than Bitcoin Cash. But Bitcoin's use would still remain negligible, no matter how negligible the use of other cryptocurrencies is. Just being more useful than the rest of the pack doesn't make Bitcoin more useful on its own
4676  Economy / Speculation / Re: Future BTC's price on: January 21, 2019, 03:48:54 PM
Because of some fatal flaw. If you believe that Bitcoin will succeed 100% you might get deeply disappointed. Million things can go wrong. If succeed of Bitcoin would be sure thing then everyone would just loan money and buy as much as they can. But in reality doing that could be just a suicide.

Fatal flaw? I think it's safe to say that the more time goes by, the less risk of a 'fatal flaw' there is, especially with how the developers are pretty damn good in what they do.

The risk is decreasing with time, but the risk is also non-zero and is pretty significant. The entire design is experimental and the protocol is a mere decade old. We're still finding really serious bugs in the reference implementation as of a few months ago. There's a reason Core is still in beta

The real headache is that the risk is not actually decreasing with time

If you had carefully read theymos' report, you would have noticed that the bug was introduced in Bitcoin Core 0.14.0, i.e. not so long ago. But how long ago is actually irrelevant here as this irrefutably proves that there can be new bugs not just to be found but introduced as well (the point on which theymos also focuses our attention). As you can easily guess, the possibility of these bugs doesn't decrease over time. In fact, it can actually rise as Bitcoin becomes more complex and harder to understand (read, efficiently and effectively test it)
4677  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin adoption: Don't just sit down, do something on: January 21, 2019, 03:30:36 PM
There was no need for you to waste time with altcoins, bitcoin is becoming even better for business and small "Lightning" payments

There are definitely other factors at play here

And we have already seen them in action. People won't pay with Bitcoin for things you mention (like daily necessities or haircut), even if it would cost them nothing in terms of fees and time. But it doesn't mean either that Bitcoin will be useless and worthless. It will just turn into digital gold (it is not yet) but without gold's shortcomings and deficiencies. And this is where altcoins are going to pick up the lead as with Bitcoin being new gold (a store of value), using altcoins as change money would make perfect sense

I have actually bought things with bitcoin, just not daily needs directly. Indirectly by selling for fiat, yes. Once LN becomes universal in wallets, i see no reason not to pay little things directly as well, as long as the business accepts BTC. Or perhaps it would be more accurate to say, pay for things in satoshis, especially if as you say, the value of bitcoin will keep going up. Unlike gold that remains mostly fixed in place

This doesn't count

Because merchants may not even know that you paid them with a cryptocurrency (in this case with Bitcoin), let alone accepting it as a legit means of payment. And I'm afraid LN won't mend matters in this department as it is not merchants who are a limiting factor here. And while you (and me too, for that matter) are ready to pay for small things with cryptocurrencies (though, personally, I would prefer to pay with lites, not bitcoins), this is not what most cryptocurrency users are inclined to do at large

Gold itself used to be used for payment, but it got so expensive that it got tricky to pay small amounts with it. Bitcoin doesn't have that problem, not only has 8 decimals already, but can quickly be expanded into 16, should a time come where a single satoshi becomes too much money

The problem is not with Bitcoin and its decimal places, the problem is with the majority of people not willing to use it as a means of payment
4678  Economy / Speculation / Re: On stagnating prices on: January 21, 2019, 02:32:36 PM

Such type of a market is possible when the interest in an asset is on the wane overall but the price is supported by the massive amount of shorts. It can be said that in these circumstances shorts take the place of the long term interest, but it is still an interest whichever way you look at it, even if it is a negative one. And ironically, it looks like it is able to support prices even though it can't drive them up (apart from short squeezes)

And the end result is stagnating prices, which is what we mostly see these days


But won't the short-sellers also lose interest if prices are stagnating? Short-sellers also have lending fees to pay for borrowing the coins used to short which might cause them to close their positions earlier

Your question is totally legit, so thanks for asking it

First of all, the interests rates at Bitfinex are negligible. Right now I have shorts in Litecoin, Bitcoin, ZCash, and it is only Litecoin interest rates that I can't just discard for fuck's sake. Interest rates on the other coins are below 1% yearly. As you can see, it is not really something you should care about as long as the market doesn't go against you. But if it does, then they will be your least concern anyway

Further, we shouldn't forget that prices are in a long-term downtrend, whether you like it or not. So the stagnating prices are actually a temporary stop before crashing lower. As you might remember, in October and early November prices had also been stagnating in the 6-7k range. But it was definitely worth keeping shorts open as in late November the price crashed two times. Hope this answers your question
4679  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: January 21, 2019, 02:14:30 PM
120 referrals is something I can't even imagine how to get. From my experience, people never click ref links, and thus I have zero referrals. How have managed to get that much?

That was years ago

And I was one of the first users of this facet (my ID is in the second thousand). Back then it was only a faucet and nothing else. Interestingly, when I was leaving the site, I set my share percentage to 100%, i.e. all my referral commissions were paid back to my referrals, and let the forum know. And what d'ya think, some dude managed to earn 0.0026 BTC through his referral payments to me paid back to him (good for him, I don't mind)



So if anyone is interested in this "one-time offer", i.e. in getting their referral payments back, let me know
4680  Economy / Speculation / Re: Tone Vays Is 85% Certain Bitcoin (BTC) Hasn’t Hit True Bottom on: January 21, 2019, 10:45:52 AM
Capitulation could have already happened when we dropped from $6k after hoovering for a while in there all the way down to $3k. Solid big red candle, good volume, and it happened after a while of being stable.

Bottoms happen when it's too late to realize that they happened, this is how the new FOMO cycles are created. There's people always waiting for lower prices that never come, then they realize they will never come, and all of them becoming panic buyers or accumulators at market prices.

Bottoms definitely happen but not like that

They are not like a flat bottom at all (as the word suggests) since they are more like the Mariana Trench with a long, lonely red stick piecing support for a few minutes, maybe hours (this is how capitulation looks). If we see a bottom like this (and like the one we saw in September and October), it may prove to be a false bottom. Anyway, if your estimations were correct, we wouldn't be stuck in the current range of 3-4k for so many days. As much as I hope to be wrong, I have a feeling that these prices are to stay for longer than we expect

Yes, I was talking about how after a big red dildo like the one we say from $6k to $3k, it comes a very ong period of a stable-ish (in Bitcoin terms) price. We've already had the %85-ish correction we needed, anything lower than that is just pretty dumb and I may consider buying as it starts getting into the unreasonably cheap ranges

And I'm talking about the same

If it was a true "bottom", it wouldn't look like a bottom at all (e.g. like a seabed). It would be like a "big red dildo" with an almost instant and powerful rebound. But what we saw in late November and early December looked more like a hydraulic press crushing the prices without any genuine rebound. So while it definitely looks like a bottom, it may not be the one in the trading sense of the word (read, we have yet to see that "big red dildo")

Then given by past precedents, I don't expect ATH until around 2021. Of course new fundamentals like Bakkt can make it go to the moon if massive institutional pockets start buying

I'm skeptical about any ATH's in the foreseeable future (other than local ones, of course)
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