This shouldn't in the least affect my visible balance

The payouts you refer to come from my referral commissions, i.e. not from free rolls, and they are made before they are reflected on my balance as far as I can judge. This table doesn't show any payouts, and as I understand it, the incoming value should match the outgoing. If anything, my balance should have increased, not diminished, in any case (unless I pay back 100%, of course). But maybe I'm missing something else or there might be a bug after all

Yeah, I also noticed that thing

That whenever there is a hint for a certain growth, it gets crushed immediately. Though I don't really think that there is some elaborate manipulation going on with somebody seeing that prices don't rise. More likely, it is a bunch of not related traders taking on this opportunity to open new shorts. And it is quite in line with my theory of cornered prices as when the price goes down, shorts get closed and thus prevent prices from falling further. Obviously, it can't last forever and we will likely continue to spiral down

I didn't know that

And here you can see that there is definitely something wrong with the balance:



As you can see, my balance yesterday was 0.00018667 BTC at the end of the day, but today in the morning it has all of a sudden become 0.00016401 BTC (looks like 2k satoshi disappeared). Sending you my ID via PM

As I get it, no one is actually believing in Bitcoin here

And all that noise that people were making nonstop 24/7 about Bitcoin being "digital gold", "the best store of value ever", "world money", it was all thorough bullshit and elaborate lie, right? So is there a soothing light at the end of the tunnel or is it just the freight train coming our way? On the other hand, Russia not doing well financially (with that freight train coming their way) may be desperately looking for a way out ("wunderwaffe"), and in that case we can expect many strange decisions not quite in line with sound reasoning and logic, bordering on insane

It is "a matter of fact" only in very specific conditions (i.e. in your head mostly)


This sounds like complete gibberish to me. But I will just say that traders are not the only actors


Basically, you don't see the forest for the trees

This shows that you can't look at the bigger picture, and thus can't understand why your whole argument doesn't hold. You feel like you are right indeed because you can't possibly grasp how you can be wrong. I understand your pains and anguish. And I tell you why you feel like that. You don't see why real use overrides speculative value because this real use in case of Bitcoin is virtually non-existent. That's why you are technically correct (with Bitcoin), but still wrong in general, "fundamentally" as you say

It should be evident to anyone with a half functioning brain that you are making incorrect comparisons

First, you are comparing a well-established coin with a fresh start (well, maybe not so fresh but you get the point). Further, this is not what volatility is essentially about. If some shitcoin rose 1000% in a month's timespan, it is not volatility. Volatility, as the word itself suggests, is more about oscillating prices in a certain range. In other words, to see volatility of an asset you should remove the long-term trend from its price action

And last but not least, I don't say that major altcoins are less volatile or on par with Bitcoin. They are indeed more volatile overall, but the difference is not that great. And sometimes (which is my point exactly), Bitcoin's volatility can surpass that of major altcoins. And I gave you an example of that, when Litecoin's price had been dragging behind the price of Bitcoin

I'm not going to argue over this issue any more

As only time will tell, if ever (but I will keep a watchful eye on this dynamic). Apart from that, as I already said, it is not of great concern to me per se because I'm more interested in exploring the possibility of shorts supporting the price in the narrow range at the moment. If this is the case, we should expect a further crash in the coming days as shorts are generally expected to drive prices down, not support them (long-term wise). But this effect is definitely something new to me (provided it exists and it is actually shorts at work)

Okay, maybe you will be able to solve the glitch I have just seen (if it is a glitch indeed)

As I wrote yesterday, I had 10k satoshi in my account (it was a little above that, around 10.7k). I made a few free rolls yesterday and my balance went to +18k. Today I made one roll and I still have 0.00017142 BTC. If we take the roll table:



And then sum up the values, we will get a total of 0.00008179 BTC with the recent rolls, which gives us over 18k satoshi. But this is not what I actually see in my balance today. So if you are running the site, you may want to look into this issue

I definitely see what you mean

Moreover, I would likely say essentially the same if someone came up with a similar claim (that speculative value adds to volatility). But I'm not that someone and I can easily tell you why and where you are in fact wrong. Basically, you assume that Bitcoin is just about trading (read, speculation) and in these very specific conditions, you might be right after all. But if we take a wider look, your point can be easily refuted and this also explains why my claim is actually correct if we look beyond sheer speculation

I intentionally pointed out that it is speculative value since there can also be real value determined by real use. And if we take into account this value, your whole argument is instantly reversed. More specifically, more real value leads to less speculative value (which is kinda obvious), but less speculative value means less liquidity in the markets (as liquidity gets consumed by real application), which, according to your reasoning, should lead to higher volatility. But it can't because real value is called real for a reason

First of all, how many people actually understand what "provably fair" means and how to check

For example, I don't know as I don't gamble a lot these days. And this leads us to the next question, i.e. how many people actually gamble at FreeBitco.in? With their house edge of 5% (if I'm not mistaken), I don't think that a lot. As an aside, this value alone would suffice to claim that it is far from fair, huh. Besides, there were quite a few online casinos in the past which also claimed to be "provably fair" and this didn't stop them from stealing their users' money

The price is always a product of demand and supply

So you can safely forget about it (I mean about it being a product of demand and supply). Regarding the part about "volume needed to move the price now compared to in 2015 explains why we don't see similar percentage swings", this is an obvious fallacy because you should look at the volume of bitcoins, not dollars

If your assumption were correct, it would be impossible to move Bitcoin's price at 20k as you would need 6x the amount of dollars that you need today. And the price swings at prices above 10k were downright insane, both in absolute and relative values (as they should have been)

You don't follow me

You should look at a minute chart since last rally, i.e. since January 8th. It mostly looks like this now:



As you can see, there is a sudden burst of activity when someone buys or sells a bunch of bitcoins (in this case sells), and then there's a flatline with insignificant trading activity, i.e. no one is selling and no one is buying anything in relevant amounts. See no volume? I don't see either. That was not the case just a month ago

All in all, it means there is not much interest in Bitcoin now, and the price can be either locked within a short range or easily moved by a sufficient amount of shorts. But with shorts you can't rise, you can only fall further at the next shorting cycle which is to start when the majority of shorts get closed

The devil, as always, is in paying precious attention to details

In this case, i.e. in the case of Bitcoin regulation, it is not so much about regulating Bitcoin as such (which, as you correctly noted, is above the central authorities of any specific country) as about regulating activities and operations of companies (and individuals too, for that matter) that are dealing and involved with Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies, e.g. exchanges, payment processors, merchants, etc

Regulation of cryptocurrency specific questions, e.g. taxes, also falls into this category. I think this is an important detail which we shouldn't forget to point out and an important distinction which we shouldn't forget to make when talking about "regulating Bitcoin"

Today it looks different

Even though I hope you turn out right in the end. If you look at the price charts, you will see a lot of price action back then as people were actively selling and buying. Nowadays it is mostly occasional bursts followed by flatlines, and it has been so since the beginning of the year (actually, after the rally which ended January 8th). But that's not my major concern. If my theory is right and the current price levels are supported by shorts mostly, we may be in for a new crash like the one happened in November (after a new shorting cycle starts)


You should also count in the effect of the 2016 halving

While technically true, this doesn't exclude Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies either

Further, I can't imagine a field of application other than cryptocurrencies where the blockchain technologies would be useful. This doesn't mean that they can't be used (as they definitely can), but how competitive will they be to other technologies? Blockchain comes with a lot of overhead, so, personally, I don't think there'll be a lot of projects involving blockchain (other than vaporware) and not involving cryptocurrencies in some way. But you may provide examples of such uses if you wish

Well, I haven't been to FreeBitco.in for a few years. It turns out that right now I have 10k satoshi in my wallet and I earned 0.04506873 BTC in total through my referrals with whom I shared like 0.02440395 BTC. I have 120 referrals since the times when I had been actively using this facet, and a couple of my referrals are still active (this 10k satoshi came through them, most likely). Just in case, sharing referral commissions with one's referrals was my idea

wetsuit hasn't been active since July 2018. Is he alive?

You are late to the party, bro (with your topic)

These topics were popular in 2015-2016 when Bitcoin started to rise but hadn't yet risen enough to reveal that it was all hype and speculation. Back then, rumors had been flooding the Net that the Chinese Central bank was going to create their own version of Bitcoin. I told that it made no sense. So if it didn't make sense then, why do you think it makes sense now when Bitcoin is losing value like shit?

Things are likely going to change soon

With Bitcoin going downhill you should actually expect more people becoming interested in gambling. Really, if you have a bunch of bitcoins that you bought at prices above 10k, there is little chance you will be able to book profits in the foreseeable future. Selling them and fixing losses is not what most people can easily agree to, so they may turn their heads towards online casinos in search of some consolation in gambling, probably thinking that if they don't lose all, they may win back some of the losses. Perhaps, something like that already happened


Agreed. These days you have to be very careful as a lot of people have gained enough experience to milk such sites and ruin them in less than no time

This is another example of how distorted the thinking of the majority of Bitcoin users is

They are not in Bitcoin to use it as intended, i.e. a currency, a means of payment, and so forth. They want big companies to adopt crypto so that they can have a chance to make profits. I suspect it won't work that way. In fact, it worked for once in the past (though without big companies), but there might not be a fresh restart or second chance as many are hoping for. It doesn't mean that Bitcoin is going to die or disappear, it means that its speculative value and thus its usefulness for speculation are going to shrink considerably

That's the whole point about cryptocurrencies

And how perverted it is. If Bitcoin is nothing without traders, it pretty much means that it is useless and worthless in real life and all of its value comes through speculation. Basically, it turns Bitcoin into a pyramid scheme where you can profit only by selling coins to someone else, i.e. not via real utility. Compare this to real assets like oil, for example. Would it be useless without speculators? Most likely, it would only be more valuable as its market price would reflect its real value, without speculative discounts or premiums


This is speculative value and it mostly adds to volatility