Bitcoin Forum
June 16, 2024, 06:23:38 PM *
News: Voting for pizza day contest
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 [236] 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 »
4701  Other / Meta / Re: "Total time logged in" bug and accounts with long time logged in on: September 18, 2019, 11:51:27 PM
If yes then those accounts using this method to increase their total login by following it on multiple devices.
What is the benefit of increasing "total time logged in" While your rank and merit is zero?

These users are most likely bots. There's a limit to refresh of 1 second which becomes a bit of a pain if you're trying to archive a lot of stuff from a site. I think it took vod about 3 months to rebuild his database of the 2 million profiles on here for example.
I tested this. I refreshed a page manually about 10 times in a minute. In this case "total time logged in" increases 1 minute per minute. I guess they are using several devices. I don't think they are only trying to increase that useless time. They have other purposes which personally I am not aware of.
4702  Other / Meta / "Total time logged in" bug and accounts with long time logged in on: September 18, 2019, 10:58:59 PM
I tried to find out how "Total time logged in" is calculated.

Here is what I did

I refreshed a page using my account
Then I visited my profile using a device which wasn't logged in. I refreshed the page every minutes. After 18 minutes my status changed to "offline"
Then I refreshed a page again using my account. "The total time logged in" didn't change.
Then I refreshed a page using my account after 3 minutes. "The total time logged in" increased by 3 minutes.
So, the system is working fine for me and I guess it's working fine for almost all of the users.
"Total time logged in" increases as long as the time difference between two consecutive activities of the user is less than x.

This is exactly what I expected. But according to Bitcointalk Statistics Center, there are some users that have been online more than the time they've been a member of the forum.

Here are the accounts.
hmblm1245
btcnfan
froastie
keewee
randomie
bcfan
micey
liliam
randomnessie
papperbag

I logged in my account on two different devices simultaneously. Refreshed a page by both devices continuously. Both was contributing to "Total time logged in". In every minute, my "Total time logged in" increased by 2 minutes.
So, it seems that those accounts with that long time logged in are using several devices simultaneously. They are always online and never post. What are they doing? Except hmblm1245 all of them has been created in August 2018.
4703  Other / Meta / Re: My 100 days on Bitcointalk on: September 18, 2019, 08:16:04 PM
Online in what sense?
It's a mystery to me: LoyceBot often scrapes pages, but it's still stuck at only 14 days logged in. I've tested an auto-refresh in the past on my main account (when someone was checking my online time), and that made my time logged in go up real-time.
Recently, there was a topic about a few users in Bitcoin Forum - Statistics Center, who's "Most Time Online" increases a couple dozen times faster than real-time.
I just tested it.
I refreshed a page using my account
Then I visited my profile using a device which wasn't logged in. I refreshed the page every minutes. After 18 minutes my status changed to "offline"
Then I refreshed a page again using my account. "The total time logged in" didn't change.
Then I refreshed a page using my account after 3 minutes. "The total time logged in" increased by 3 minutes.
So, the system is working fine for me and I guess it's working fine for almost all of the users.
"Total time logged in" increases as long as the time difference between two consecutive activities of the user is less than x.
But you are right. I am sure there is a bug. All those accounts listed on top 10 of "Most Time Online" have been online more than the time they've been a member of forum.
All of them except the first one have registered on August 2018.

Edit: Found the bug, posted a new topic.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5185816
4704  Other / Meta / Re: My 100 days on Bitcointalk on: September 18, 2019, 06:10:40 PM
That's the total time you have been online.
"Total time logged in: 588 days" does not mean that you've a been a member of bitcointalk for 588 days. It means that the total time you have been online is 588*24 hours.

Online in what sense? Even when the computer's off I'm still logged in. And a computer is usually on doing something even if I'm nowhere near it.

Does that 588 days consist only of active scrolling and writing on the forum? I kind of hope not.

It's the time you have spent on bitcointalk.
Whenever your status is "online" that time is increasing. Your status becomes "offline" shortly after you no longer open any new pages.
4705  Other / Meta / Re: My 100 days on Bitcointalk on: September 18, 2019, 05:47:17 PM
Anyone know what 'logged in' actually consists of?

I'm showing 588 days. Obviously I've been here for longer than that and I've surely logged in and changed the odd password during the last 588 days so I've never been totally sure what it's actually representing. I certainly never knowingly log out.
That's the total time you have been online.
"Total time logged in: 588 days" does not mean that you've a been a member of bitcointalk for 588 days. It means that the total time you have been online is 588*24 hours.
4706  Other / Meta / Re: Is this concerning? This could be a conspiracy too. on: September 17, 2019, 09:22:44 PM
It's similar on some successfully appealed permaban users get their appeals approved since the plagiarized post they made was posted when they were just newbies.

I don't think any appeal has been approved if the plagiarism has been already proven. Moderators are very strict on plagiarism. Even if a user has plagiarized some years ago, the ban will be permanent and the appeal won't be accepted.

  • Plagiarism: If you copy some text from somewhere, then you should have a good reason for it, and you must link to the source. Doing otherwise is plagiarism. Changing a few words around doesn't matter. If we find that you plagiarized, then you absolutely will be permanently banned, even if we find it years after you did it.
4707  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 17, 2019, 07:56:34 PM
Free tickets for stuff like this is a bit of a tricky situation. Now we have people who have bought tickets directly and thats great, that money goes directly to the lambo purchasing part (they probably already have that much money anyway) however for people who get deposit bonus tickets, people who earned from affiliates and got it, people who wagered and go it, they are all basically getting a ticket for free without spending their money.
I am not sure if you can get free tickets for the games referrals play. As far as I know the free tickets are only given for the games you yourself play.
However the users don't spend money directly for these tickets, but the website benefits from the wagers users make. The Lambo encourage the users to play more and the website earn more.
4708  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: 9 days 90 merits giveaway... Have high quality? Take them. on: September 17, 2019, 05:42:05 PM
Here is mine.
Investigation of effect of super bump and mini bump on bump score
My simulations for testing Martingale strategy
4709  Other / Meta / Re: Active users and top posters in the past 1h, 24h and 7d on: September 16, 2019, 06:58:12 PM
Quote
Legendary: 6189 posts (470 users)
Hero Member: 6978 posts (480 users)
Sr. Member: 6246 posts (661 users)
Full Member: 7510 posts (838 users)
Member: 7522 posts (956 users)
Jr. Member: 5135 posts (877 users)
Newbie: 18985 posts (4616 users)
Brand new: 3802 posts (1337 users)

The past 7 days look pretty different tho, Newbies and Brand New Members had 22787 posts in total , and that is 3374 more posts than those of Sr , Hero and Legendary members combined.

You should consider the number of users too.
The average number of posts made by users of each rank:
Legendary: 13.16
Hero Member: 14.53
Sr. Member: 9.44
Full member: 8.96
Member: 7.86
Jr. Member: 5.85
Newbie: 4.11
Brand new: 2.84
4710  Economy / Gambling / Re: BTCDice.io - New dice site, fast rolls, instant withdrawals, invest on: September 16, 2019, 06:40:21 PM
I think the problem is there are no gamblers left in this forum and only signature posters.
Any gambler would risk depositing 0.0000001 bitcoin to win 0.05 bitcoin for free.
We are giving away risk free money and somehow there are no players here willing to take it.
I think we need to look elsewhere than this forum
Bitcointalk is the best website you can use for promoting your gambling website. If you have concluded that bitcointalk is not effective, do not try other websites. You cannot find any place better than bitcointalk.
Now you are promoting your website only in this thread. I recommend you to run a signature campaign.
4711  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 16, 2019, 05:27:31 PM
Freebitco is now more focused on Rugby and Cricket. I don't think these sports are more popular than Football and basketball matches. I don't know why freebitco doesn't add popular tournaments like UEFA champions league. No other website prefer Rugby and Cricket to football.
4712  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 15, 2019, 09:10:59 PM
The tricky part is how is freebitco.in going to avoid the power which forced shapeshift to implement KYC. If that power (FEDs, police, CIA, NSA whatever your call them) wants to find out who the owner of freebitco.in, they'll find him and those guys are pretty good at intimidating people. They gave Voorhees 2 choices:
Shouldn't compare freebitco with shapeshift. Freebitco is not an exchange.

you will directly get the tickets so just by depositing the exact amount you will be able to get it. This is very generous for them to give away this tickets which let us participate on the biggest event ever right now
It's true that they give users Free Lambo tickets only for depositing. But these tickets do not increase the value of prize. The prize is a Lambo or 200,000 dollar if the winner want to be paid in bitcoins. Actually, they don't spend money when they give users these tickets.
4713  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My simulations for testing Martingale strategy on: September 15, 2019, 07:00:12 PM
The simplest conclusion is that martingale gives you a bit of profit in the beginning and the more you have in the bank the harder it is for you to fail and lose everything.
Gambling is based on luck and there is no guarantee that you will win even at the beginning.

Don't start with low bank or you'll have no chance to earn profit but if you are willing to risk a lot of money it's not the worst strategy but it always makes you lose in the end.
Higher balance and a low initial bet amount causes you to have to repeat the martingale method more times. However that causes the number of consecutive lose before failing decreases, it causes you to have a lower chance of winning.

For the Martingale strategy, you really need to have a big bankroll so that you have the balance to double your investment with every lose and if you run out of balance, you will eventually lose all.
How much money do you think is needed? Are 21 millions bitcoins enough?
As you yourself said you will eventually lose all. But note that it will finally happen even of you have all 21 millions bitcoins.

Rather than focus on strategies like martingale etc it is better we focus on money management techniques. If we understand how to manage the money and how much to spend every day / every week in gambling, we may not lose much and at the same time gambling will be pleasant and fun for us.
Yes, you can manage your money to not gamble more than you can afford. This only decreases the amount you less if you can overcome greed. But money management cannot overcome the house. The house give your money. Does not matter it's a big money or only a few cents.
4714  Other / Meta / Re: Bumping changes on some boards on: September 15, 2019, 01:39:43 PM
I guess that the bounty hunters will bump the ANN threads of the projects in which they participate. Is it allowed?

For bumping a topic you should 1. make a post on that or 2. click on the "bump" button ( If you have merits)

1. make a post (mini bump)
It is not allowed to ask bounty hunters to make a post on a certain thread because:
you can't give people any bonus for replying to your thread.

2. Click on "bump" button (super bump)
It's impossible to track who has clicked on "bump" button. Also, bounty managers have not access to the amount of bump power of bounty participants.
For now, I am intentionally not making it public who bumped each topic, since that way you can't prove that you bumped anything, and this may prevent people from selling their bumps as easily. I don't particularly object to making the approximate bump scores or bump powers public, but I didn't do this yet.
4715  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My simulations for testing Martingale strategy on: September 14, 2019, 07:40:45 PM
So the first charts basically show that winning is almost guaranteed from 4 bets then the efficacy of the strategy starts to diminish as you increase from 4 and above?
Winning is never guaranteed. You might lose all your fund only in few seconds. Charts show that the time of losing is different, You might lose your first 10 or 20 bets streakly. Every thing is possible.

So the first charts basically show that winning is almost guaranteed from 4 bets then the efficacy of the strategy starts to diminish as you increase from 4 and above?
Should people who use this strategy stick to this range(1—4) then quit to start again but still within the range? You could further test this to see if actually works.
What do you mean starting again? Using Martingale strategy, we are actually starting again several times.

P.S. Did you use Seuntjie’s dice bot to your experiment? I hope you put credits into his program. It looks very similar too.
No. I used my own codes.

- Mix of odds.
The house doesn't allow you to win even you use different odds. You can only delay the losing time.

- Calculate a bet size that: if you win a losing streak at n, the profit after that win help the playing balance sustain one more bet (n+1)
For this, you need to have a big initial amount of bet. That cause you to lose even sooner.

- Take a good plan of balance sizing: playing balance = 1/20 total capital willing to lose.
Yes, you are right. But bigger amounts only delay your losing time.
4716  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My simulations for testing Martingale strategy on: September 14, 2019, 06:48:45 AM
Yes you might win some money to begin with but longterm you will give it all bck to the house
Exactly, We don't know when the pocket will become empty, but it will finally happen and as charts show, that usually happen very soon.

Still that is a impressive set of graphs you have created and you sound smart enough to know the house wins in the end  
Yes, The method is not profitable. I made the diagrams to show that to any one likes this strategy.

The OP made great charts. Is the initial balance that you used in satoshis?
No difference which cryptocurrency is.
For example when the bet amount is 1 and the initial balance is 1000, we can say bet amount is 1 satoshi and initial balance is 1000 satoshi or bet amount is 1mbtc and initial balance is 1 bitcoin.
This can apply to dogecoin, litecoin, etc. What matters is the rate of bet amount and initial balance.

Would be interested if you will start at a much higher level of initial balance. What would be the charts look like?
They can be obtained too. It's a bit time consuming. I had calculated the probability of winning theoretically when the initial balance is 1 bitcoin and your initial bet amount is only 1 Satoshi.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5181132

What opinion/s do you want to hear for this test? These simulations will not really do nothing because aside from that fact that it will end up losing in the end, these movements are inconsistent therefore I don't know what information we are extracting here. No accurate data or even close we can get to somehow beat the house edge even for a short or long-term.
But I appreciate the time and effort you spend here to make these simulations.
I repeated the simulations many times to prove what you are saying better and more visible. And I didn't claim that we can beat the house. I proved the opposite.

What's the purpose of this test? To prove that martingale can be profitable?
No, to prove that it's not profitable.
4717  Economy / Gambling discussion / My simulations for testing Martingale strategy on: September 13, 2019, 08:51:09 PM
Here I would like to share my simulations to test Martingale strategy.
The house edge is 1% and bet multiplier in loss case is 2.
The calculations continue until the bet amount is lower than balance.
Hope it is helpful for any one interested in these strategy.
Give your opinions about the results obtained.


Initial balance: 10
Initial bet: 1






Initial balance: 100
Initial bet: 1





Initial balance: 1000
Initial bet: 1

4718  Other / Meta / Investigation of effect of super bump and mini bump on bump score. on: September 13, 2019, 02:10:08 PM
LoyceV made a graph to show the change of super power over time when someone uses the super bump once per day. According to this graph, if someone super bumps topics once per day, the super bump power will finally stabilize to 18.69
So, the effect of the person who super bumps one topic per day only by a simple click is about 19 times a person who makes a post on a topic. I think this effect is very big and is not reasonable.

After I saw LoyceV's graph, I decided to make some other graphs to show the effect of super bump power with different number of bumps per months and also show how super bump power will finalize with different number of bump the person done.
I assumed that the bumps are done regularly and the base bump power is 100 (like LoyceV)
Therefore,
1 super bump per 30 days = 1 bump on day 1, next bump on day 31, ............
2 super bumps per 30 days = 1 bump on day 1, next bump on day 16, ..........
10 super bumps per 30 days= 1 bump on day 1, next on day 4,............

If someone super bumps topics 5 times per 30 days



If someone super bumps topics 15 times per 30 days



If someone super bumps topic 30 times per 30 days (It has been already made by LoyceV)



If someone super bump topics 90 times per 30 day (3 times per day)



The diagram below shows how the super power will stabilize with different number of bumps made per 30 days.


According the results obtained even if someone uses the super bump power 6 times per day, the effect of his/her bump is still 3.6 times the person makes a post on that topic. Also consider that the super bumper is able to bump the topic every 24 hours.
In my opinion, the effect of super bump should be decreased.

Here are the rates of super bump power to base bump power for different number of bumps per 30 day.
1 bump per 30 day: 100%
2 bumps per 30 day: 86.96%
3 bumps per 30 day: 76.92%
4 bumps per 30 day: 68.97%
5 bumps per 30 day: 62.50%
6 bumps per 30 day: 57.14%
7 bumps per 30 day: 52.63%
8 bumps per 30 day: 48.78%
9 bumps per 30 day: 45.45%
10 bumps per 30 day: 42.55%
.
15 bumps per 30 day: 32.26%
.
30 bumps per 30 day: 18.69%
.
60 bumps per 30 day: 10.00%
.
90 bumps per 30 day: 6.90%
.
120 bumps per 30 day: 5.26%
.
150 bumps per 30 day: 4.30%
.
180 bumps per 30 day: 3.57%  

A mini-bump (bumping by making a post): 1%
4719  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 12, 2019, 08:42:48 PM
Withdraw what? I don't think you understand what he is talking about.
I thought he means the bonus that we can claim in "Multiply BTC" section. Maybe I am wrong. If he means the Lambo Tickets, you are right. There is no need to wager for that. Every one has the chance to get 1 free Lambo ticket for every 0.05 BTC deposit without any withdraw limit.

When Freebitco.in released plans about rebranding, they planned to add more coins to their website like Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Doge. If it will be implemented, we will be able to deposit these coind to Freebitco.in directly and choose in which coin to receive interest. I'm just not sure if they are still planning to do this thing.
Really? It's the first time I've heard about this. Is there any link to an announcement or any other thing help me for more details?
4720  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 12, 2019, 11:41:36 AM
Right now they are doing the deposit bonus again, wish I was a bit richer to make another deposit because that seems a nice bonus and the % interest is ok by me because I live in one of the silly countries with nearly zero returns on cash.
Do you now that you need to wager 25 times the amount you claim for bonus before you become able to withdraw that?
I guess you live in a country with a very low inflation rate and good economic condition. Never be sad for low interest rates. Do you prefer to get 30% interest rate but have 50% inflation rate?
Any way, I agree that the interest rate on freebitco is really fair and fine. Freebitco has many other good options such as easy sending and receiving bitcoin, the weekly lottery and now its Lambo lottery. You can also bet on different events and enjoy it.
Pages: « 1 ... 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 [236] 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!