Check these two users. 1. TillKoelnHe is advertising his links and is posting burst while wearing Cryptotalk signature. ( http://archive.is/Z7GV5) 2. snakey (3 negative trusts) This user didn't make any post between June 18 and September 27. ( http://archive.is/R3mrN) Today, he worn Crytotalk signature and made 20 posts between 09:18:54 AM - 10:29:09 AM and became offline again. ( http://archive.is/p1YWH) Special thanks to LoyceV http://loyce.club/active/1h.html is really helpful. As stats of cryptotalk signature campaign participants are updated regularly every 3-4 hours, seems that they are able to cash out their earning easily before Yahoo bans them |
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For people interested in spam hunting: I found this account on top of http://loyce.club/active/1h.html (which means he made the largest number of posts in the past hour). Dang Loyce, this is a great tool for spotting plagiarists. I just found this guy from the 24 hours list and reported his last 5 posts for plagiarism. Yes, that's really helpful especially after relaunching of Yobit Campaign. Until yesterday, Newbies were always on top of the list. Now at the time of writing two legendary users are on the top with 17 and 12 posts in the past hour. It's funny a legendary member which has 3 negative trusts, has no merit earned and is posting burst is earning money. I think now we need a new topic for reporting burst-posting too. |
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Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation?
Yes you absolutely right. I thought that the amount won will be the total amount including bet. Seems like I was mistaken at some point and I have corrected the above post. So, the example you made for positive expected value case is no longer valid. The expected value is always negative in dice game. In dice game the expected value can be positive only if the house edge is negative which is impossible. In sports betting the expected value can be positive. Assume that there is a game between teams "A" and "B". Team "A" has 70% chance to win the game and team "B" has "30%" chance. If the house edge is 1%, the odds are A: 99/70=1.414 B: 99/30=3.3 If we use 70% and 30% in our calculations the expected value is negative. The expected value is positive only when the gambler analyze the teams and believe that the probabilities that have been used for calculating the odds are wrong. For example a gambler believe that team "A" has 80% chance and team "B" has 20% chance and bets 0.001 BTC on team "A". If the gambler wins the bet, he will get 0.001*0.414=0.0001414 So, the expected value is as follows. EV= [0.000414*0.8]-[0.001*0.2]= 0.000131 |
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Sometimes odds also fluctuate because of crowd wisdom, and when you know relatively well the sports, you can regularly predict with better accuracy than the crowd.
But, there are also huge opportunities for guaranteed profit. E.G. first time boost offers on many bookies in the UK on big games. Champions League finals, Europa League finals. I remember opening an account on 2 bookies, took advantage of 8/1 and 7/1 odds boosted... and there was 1 guaranteed outcome of each.
Or odds that are higher than the probability of some guy scoring for example. 2/1 for Sturridge to score when he was on a >1 goals per game ratio streak, good value. but +EV?
So you are saying that the odds on different bookies can be determined so the profit is guaranteed if the gambler can catch the opportunity. But this is not called positive expected value. Am I right? roulete or any other kind of gambling can be comparable with sports betting because all of them are still kind of gambling. you can say any good things about sports but there are still that time that you can loose . on roulete you can still win in the long run or on long term depending on your playstyle or on how lucky you are .
In long term, It's impossible to win in dice, roulette or crash game. That's due to the existence of house edge. We have heard about many strategies. But all of them lead to loss in the long term. The big difference between roulette and sport games is that the result in dice or roulette is determined by mathematics calculations, but in sports betting, the result is determined on the field of play. |
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All of these fancy terms usually don't matter much in my opinion since luck is the critical factor in this context. I never care about the EV factor in sports betting since research and luck all that matter to me.
In every gambling website everything is based on luck. No strategy works and the house is always winner. You are right about role of luck and I don't think there is any need to discuss about it. But the chance of win in different websites are not equal. Some parameters like the house edge and Expected value should be considered to maximize your chance and minimize the house chance. A website has 5% house edge cannot be compared with the one gas only 1% house edge. Sometimes two websites have equal house edge. But one of them offers you some bonuses that cause you to have a more chance. I repeat again, the house is always winner and I know it. |
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The positive expected value is the value which the bettor can win. If in a dice game you are placing 0.0001 as bet amount and setting up the multiplier as 2x, here your +ve EV would be like
(0.0002*0.5) - (0.0001*0.5) = 0.00005BTC
Here,
0.0002BTC if your Amount won
0.5 is your multiplier or your winning probability
0.0001BTC is the Amount which you might lose on a negative roll
Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation? As far as I know when the probability of wining and losing are equal, the expected value is zero. According to what you calculated the expected value is zero which implies to higher chance of wining. But in the example you make the probability of wining is 50%. |
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If you are talking about bounties in relation to signature campaigns which pay in a(n) token/altcoin, as opposed to signature campaigns which pay in bitcoin, then you are correct to say that bitcoin paying campaigns generally have much higher quality posts than token/altcoin paying campaigns.
I was talking about signature campaigns that pay participants with altcoins. This, however, does not mean bounty managers have free reign to let their participants spam low quality trash across the forum. In fact, the vast majority of spam comes from campaigns which do not pay in bitcoin; since they can create their payment token out of nothing, it costs them nothing to "pay" for this advertising and so they don't have to be picky and look for high quality posters. Instead, the go for quantity over quality and recruit hundreds of spammers.
If any of these campaigns is having excessive numbers of their posts deleted for spamming, then that bounty manager should either do their job properly, or the campaign should be banned.
You are completely right. Unfortunately, managers of altcoins signature campaigns accept any user applies. Just check some of their spreadsheets. I just wanted to say that even if a campaign has lower number of deleted posts, it doesn't mean that its manager is doing his job properly. The lower number of deleted posts is only due to his luck. Because he has accepted all the applications. We cannot compare the quality of mangers work based on deleted posts. Because all of them are doing a same thing. They accept every one. If campaign "A" has less deleted posts than "B", it doesn't mean that the manager of campaign "A" is better than manager of campaign "B". Because both managers have accepted every one. Manager "A" is only more lucky than manager "B". Check the spreadsheets. Only some users with red trust are not accepted. It is same in almost all of altcoins signature campaigns. |
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People think that if they bet on the smaller team that becomes +ev positive for some reason. That is not always the case, the simple mathematics normally behind all of these sportsbooks (which freebitcoin could be considered to have a part of it on betting) is that when people bet on each side, the total should come down to whoever side wins website gets a cut, so the losers should be paying for the winners,
You are talking about the house edge. As you mentioned correctly there is a simple mathematics behind the website which guarantees the profit of the house. From my understanding, expected value is something different. The expected value can be positive and negative. The odds can be determined so probability of winning is higher than the probability of losing. But even if the expected value is positive, the house edge still guarantees that the house makes profit. You are not the only person gambles. The total profits and losses of all gamblers is always in favor of house. |
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There is a big difference between bounties and bitcoin signature campaigns.
- In bounties, the acceptance of your application does not depend on your post history, merit, spamming, etc.
- In bitcoin signature campaigns, your post history is always reviewed by managers.
So, if the number of deleted posts of participants of campaign "A" is higher than "B", we cannot say the bounty manager of "A" is worse than "B". Almost all bounty managers accept any user unless the user has red trust.
In bitcoin signature campaigns, the quality of posts of participants depends on manager. The manager remove any one spamming and try to accept high quality posters. In these campaigns the quality of posts depends on the rates too. It's normal that the quality of posts made by Chipmixer's participants is higher than posts made by Bitvest participants.
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A forum is a place where people discuss about an issue in public. So, as long as your reply to someone is not "off-topic", it's better to post it in public. Even if you want to ask a question from a certain user, I think it's better to ask it in public as much as possible. A question to someone or a reply of yours to someone asking a question can be helpful to others too.
I have seen some threads that two users reply to each other consecutively and no other one is involved in their discussion. I don't say it's better to talk about that in private. Because their discussion can be helpful to me too.
Generally, it's better to send a personal message only for something that is really irrelevant to others. For example when I want to send my email address or Telegram ID to someone.
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This image looks fake.
When a real forum user enters the personal profile, then an email address must be shown to him / her, and not to be as a "hidden".
When a user logs in using his own account, the avatar should be also shown on top left of the page. He has only changed the username in front of "Hello" and ignored email and avatar. |
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but from what I know almost all (or maybe all) Bitcoin paying campaign aren't paying for posts in off-topic.
Two bitcoin signature campaigns are paying their participants for making posts on "off-topic" board. If majority of bounties are paying for posts in it, then disabling signatures sounds not bad.
Almost all of them don't count posts made on "off-topic" board. |
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No, it was according to all rules. Thte thread was about Bounty in Bounties section. After it was created, the next second I went to the list and it was not there.
"Bounties“ is one of four boards that have been affected by new bumping system. Topics on "bounties" board are no longer sorted by the last post. When you create a new topic, its initial bump score is zero and it is not shown on top. You can click on "last post" column so the topics are sorted by the last post. |
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If somebody is a paid bumper it will be seen and therefore action should be taken such as 'x' bumps per month or something else.
It's not easy to prove that the user has been paid for bumping. The user can claim that he is interested in the topic very much and has the right to bump any topic. Also, if someone is really interested in a topic might not bump that regularly to not be accused. It will be same as merit system, It is not easy to prove that a post has been really helpful to someone or there is another reason behind that. |
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I have a better idea.
1 board for Satoshi Identity.
1 board for every one claim to be Satoshi
1 board for every one trying to find Satoshi.
1 board for regulations
1 board for discussing about adoption of bitcoin.
1 board for discussing about anonymity and decentralization.
1 board for comparing bitcoin with banks
1 board for discussing whether should buy bitcoin now or not.
1 board for discussing effect of BAKKT on bitcoin price
1 board for comparing bitcoin with gold and stock market
1 board for prediction of bitcoin's price in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2030.
I can add 100+ others too.
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Making "off-topic" board free of signatures won't solve the problem. Most of the posts there doesn't contain signature.
Seems that some people post there only for increasing their activity. (I don't know what is the benefit of high activity when the user doesn't have any merit)
I counted the posts that contain signature in the first page of all four topics you mentioned.
Only 11 of the 63 posts contain signature.
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The discussion about "Expected Value in Sports Betting" is going to become off-topic. I created a new topic about it on "Gambling discussion" child board to have more people involved in the discussion. Here is the link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5187281 |
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Odds are determined based on probability of different outcomes of an event so the house makes profit.
If we use the probabilities considered by the house for calculation of EV, EV is always negative.
There are some gamblers that calculate the EV based on implied probability. Implied probability is the probability of winning of teams based on the gambler's opinion and analysis.
If implied probability differs from probability. The expected value might be positive.
Note that the website always makes profit. No matter what is the outcome of the event. Positive expected value does not mean that the website does not make profit or it goes bankrupt. Because the house edge is always positive.
So, the expected value is positive only if we use implied probability in the calculation of that.
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It's companies right to determine the rates. Also, participants has the right to decide whether accept the rates or not. No one forces the users to participate in a signature campaign. It's up to users to decide whether participate in a campaign or not.
Here we have a free competitive market. ChipMixer has the highest rates. They can attract the best and most constructive users and they are benefiting too. There are some other companies that cannot afford high rates and are not able to attract good users. They have to stop their campaign after a few weeks.
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