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4741  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My simulations for testing Martingale strategy on: September 15, 2019, 07:00:12 PM
The simplest conclusion is that martingale gives you a bit of profit in the beginning and the more you have in the bank the harder it is for you to fail and lose everything.
Gambling is based on luck and there is no guarantee that you will win even at the beginning.

Don't start with low bank or you'll have no chance to earn profit but if you are willing to risk a lot of money it's not the worst strategy but it always makes you lose in the end.
Higher balance and a low initial bet amount causes you to have to repeat the martingale method more times. However that causes the number of consecutive lose before failing decreases, it causes you to have a lower chance of winning.

For the Martingale strategy, you really need to have a big bankroll so that you have the balance to double your investment with every lose and if you run out of balance, you will eventually lose all.
How much money do you think is needed? Are 21 millions bitcoins enough?
As you yourself said you will eventually lose all. But note that it will finally happen even of you have all 21 millions bitcoins.

Rather than focus on strategies like martingale etc it is better we focus on money management techniques. If we understand how to manage the money and how much to spend every day / every week in gambling, we may not lose much and at the same time gambling will be pleasant and fun for us.
Yes, you can manage your money to not gamble more than you can afford. This only decreases the amount you less if you can overcome greed. But money management cannot overcome the house. The house give your money. Does not matter it's a big money or only a few cents.
4742  Other / Meta / Re: Bumping changes on some boards on: September 15, 2019, 01:39:43 PM
I guess that the bounty hunters will bump the ANN threads of the projects in which they participate. Is it allowed?

For bumping a topic you should 1. make a post on that or 2. click on the "bump" button ( If you have merits)

1. make a post (mini bump)
It is not allowed to ask bounty hunters to make a post on a certain thread because:
you can't give people any bonus for replying to your thread.

2. Click on "bump" button (super bump)
It's impossible to track who has clicked on "bump" button. Also, bounty managers have not access to the amount of bump power of bounty participants.
For now, I am intentionally not making it public who bumped each topic, since that way you can't prove that you bumped anything, and this may prevent people from selling their bumps as easily. I don't particularly object to making the approximate bump scores or bump powers public, but I didn't do this yet.
4743  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My simulations for testing Martingale strategy on: September 14, 2019, 07:40:45 PM
So the first charts basically show that winning is almost guaranteed from 4 bets then the efficacy of the strategy starts to diminish as you increase from 4 and above?
Winning is never guaranteed. You might lose all your fund only in few seconds. Charts show that the time of losing is different, You might lose your first 10 or 20 bets streakly. Every thing is possible.

So the first charts basically show that winning is almost guaranteed from 4 bets then the efficacy of the strategy starts to diminish as you increase from 4 and above?
Should people who use this strategy stick to this range(1—4) then quit to start again but still within the range? You could further test this to see if actually works.
What do you mean starting again? Using Martingale strategy, we are actually starting again several times.

P.S. Did you use Seuntjie’s dice bot to your experiment? I hope you put credits into his program. It looks very similar too.
No. I used my own codes.

- Mix of odds.
The house doesn't allow you to win even you use different odds. You can only delay the losing time.

- Calculate a bet size that: if you win a losing streak at n, the profit after that win help the playing balance sustain one more bet (n+1)
For this, you need to have a big initial amount of bet. That cause you to lose even sooner.

- Take a good plan of balance sizing: playing balance = 1/20 total capital willing to lose.
Yes, you are right. But bigger amounts only delay your losing time.
4744  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: My simulations for testing Martingale strategy on: September 14, 2019, 06:48:45 AM
Yes you might win some money to begin with but longterm you will give it all bck to the house
Exactly, We don't know when the pocket will become empty, but it will finally happen and as charts show, that usually happen very soon.

Still that is a impressive set of graphs you have created and you sound smart enough to know the house wins in the end  
Yes, The method is not profitable. I made the diagrams to show that to any one likes this strategy.

The OP made great charts. Is the initial balance that you used in satoshis?
No difference which cryptocurrency is.
For example when the bet amount is 1 and the initial balance is 1000, we can say bet amount is 1 satoshi and initial balance is 1000 satoshi or bet amount is 1mbtc and initial balance is 1 bitcoin.
This can apply to dogecoin, litecoin, etc. What matters is the rate of bet amount and initial balance.

Would be interested if you will start at a much higher level of initial balance. What would be the charts look like?
They can be obtained too. It's a bit time consuming. I had calculated the probability of winning theoretically when the initial balance is 1 bitcoin and your initial bet amount is only 1 Satoshi.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5181132

What opinion/s do you want to hear for this test? These simulations will not really do nothing because aside from that fact that it will end up losing in the end, these movements are inconsistent therefore I don't know what information we are extracting here. No accurate data or even close we can get to somehow beat the house edge even for a short or long-term.
But I appreciate the time and effort you spend here to make these simulations.
I repeated the simulations many times to prove what you are saying better and more visible. And I didn't claim that we can beat the house. I proved the opposite.

What's the purpose of this test? To prove that martingale can be profitable?
No, to prove that it's not profitable.
4745  Economy / Gambling discussion / My simulations for testing Martingale strategy on: September 13, 2019, 08:51:09 PM
Here I would like to share my simulations to test Martingale strategy.
The house edge is 1% and bet multiplier in loss case is 2.
The calculations continue until the bet amount is lower than balance.
Hope it is helpful for any one interested in these strategy.
Give your opinions about the results obtained.


Initial balance: 10
Initial bet: 1






Initial balance: 100
Initial bet: 1





Initial balance: 1000
Initial bet: 1

4746  Other / Meta / Investigation of effect of super bump and mini bump on bump score. on: September 13, 2019, 02:10:08 PM
LoyceV made a graph to show the change of super power over time when someone uses the super bump once per day. According to this graph, if someone super bumps topics once per day, the super bump power will finally stabilize to 18.69
So, the effect of the person who super bumps one topic per day only by a simple click is about 19 times a person who makes a post on a topic. I think this effect is very big and is not reasonable.

After I saw LoyceV's graph, I decided to make some other graphs to show the effect of super bump power with different number of bumps per months and also show how super bump power will finalize with different number of bump the person done.
I assumed that the bumps are done regularly and the base bump power is 100 (like LoyceV)
Therefore,
1 super bump per 30 days = 1 bump on day 1, next bump on day 31, ............
2 super bumps per 30 days = 1 bump on day 1, next bump on day 16, ..........
10 super bumps per 30 days= 1 bump on day 1, next on day 4,............

If someone super bumps topics 5 times per 30 days



If someone super bumps topics 15 times per 30 days



If someone super bumps topic 30 times per 30 days (It has been already made by LoyceV)



If someone super bump topics 90 times per 30 day (3 times per day)



The diagram below shows how the super power will stabilize with different number of bumps made per 30 days.


According the results obtained even if someone uses the super bump power 6 times per day, the effect of his/her bump is still 3.6 times the person makes a post on that topic. Also consider that the super bumper is able to bump the topic every 24 hours.
In my opinion, the effect of super bump should be decreased.

Here are the rates of super bump power to base bump power for different number of bumps per 30 day.
1 bump per 30 day: 100%
2 bumps per 30 day: 86.96%
3 bumps per 30 day: 76.92%
4 bumps per 30 day: 68.97%
5 bumps per 30 day: 62.50%
6 bumps per 30 day: 57.14%
7 bumps per 30 day: 52.63%
8 bumps per 30 day: 48.78%
9 bumps per 30 day: 45.45%
10 bumps per 30 day: 42.55%
.
15 bumps per 30 day: 32.26%
.
30 bumps per 30 day: 18.69%
.
60 bumps per 30 day: 10.00%
.
90 bumps per 30 day: 6.90%
.
120 bumps per 30 day: 5.26%
.
150 bumps per 30 day: 4.30%
.
180 bumps per 30 day: 3.57%  

A mini-bump (bumping by making a post): 1%
4747  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 12, 2019, 08:42:48 PM
Withdraw what? I don't think you understand what he is talking about.
I thought he means the bonus that we can claim in "Multiply BTC" section. Maybe I am wrong. If he means the Lambo Tickets, you are right. There is no need to wager for that. Every one has the chance to get 1 free Lambo ticket for every 0.05 BTC deposit without any withdraw limit.

When Freebitco.in released plans about rebranding, they planned to add more coins to their website like Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Doge. If it will be implemented, we will be able to deposit these coind to Freebitco.in directly and choose in which coin to receive interest. I'm just not sure if they are still planning to do this thing.
Really? It's the first time I've heard about this. Is there any link to an announcement or any other thing help me for more details?
4748  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 12, 2019, 11:41:36 AM
Right now they are doing the deposit bonus again, wish I was a bit richer to make another deposit because that seems a nice bonus and the % interest is ok by me because I live in one of the silly countries with nearly zero returns on cash.
Do you now that you need to wager 25 times the amount you claim for bonus before you become able to withdraw that?
I guess you live in a country with a very low inflation rate and good economic condition. Never be sad for low interest rates. Do you prefer to get 30% interest rate but have 50% inflation rate?
Any way, I agree that the interest rate on freebitco is really fair and fine. Freebitco has many other good options such as easy sending and receiving bitcoin, the weekly lottery and now its Lambo lottery. You can also bet on different events and enjoy it.
4749  Other / Meta / Re: Bumping changes on some boards on: September 12, 2019, 10:21:56 AM
2)   Mini Bumps do not reduce the Base bump power, and I believe that Super Bumps do not reduce it either directly (since they use a “Modified Bump Power” base_power*0.85super_bumps_last_30_days).
That would mean that Mini Bump power is in no way affected by Superbumps. Is that correct ?.

From my understanding Modified bump power is calculated and is only used for super bumps. If the points users give to topics by mini bumps was supposed to deducted from the base bump power, It would be mentioned by Theymos as it is clearly mentioned for modified bump power which is affected by super bumps.

So,
1. Mini bump power only depends on base bump power. If you mini bump 100 topics, all of those 100 topics will be affected by a same point as long as number of your merits doesn't change.
2. Super bump power depends on base bump power and number of your previous super bumps. (That's why modified bump power has been introduced)
4750  Other / Meta / Re: Bumping changes on some boards on: September 11, 2019, 07:25:24 PM
This thread was last posted in 2015: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=740159.0
How and why is at the top of the list in-between recently posted threads: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=159.0
How does the new system make that even possible?
Some one has bumped it . There are two kinds of bumps. 1. Mini bump 2. Super bump
For mini bump you must make posts.
For super bump you only need to click on "Bump" button.
A high-merit user has likely clicked on the button. ( Maybe more than 1 user)
As the bump power decreases by time and becomes zero after 36 hours, such topics cannot remain on the top.
Some one has misused the bumping points or some one has tested it.
4751  Other / Meta / Re: Bumping changes on some boards on: September 11, 2019, 07:02:01 PM
I think reporting posts within the last 36 hours could still be worth it as those posts can potentially affect the bump score.
Almost all of those shit posts on tokens threads are made by users that have not earned any merit in the last year and their bump power is exactly zero.
But generally you are right. Any one spams should be reported. No difference it affects bumping or not.
4752  Other / Meta / Re: Bumping changes on some boards on: September 11, 2019, 05:48:31 PM
I just sorted the topics on Announcements (Altcoins) by the last post. 21 posts that were on the first page when sorted by bump score remained on the first page after new sorting. It's 64% of the topics on the first page. (The total number of topics that are shown in the first page is 33). This percentage should increase over time. Gradually, number of the spam posts that used to make on some topics decreases and posts shown when sorted by bump score and the last post becomes more similar with each other as spammers leave the board.
4753  Other / Meta / Re: Bumping changes on some boards on: September 11, 2019, 02:31:43 PM
I just checked the last page of some topics that are on the top of Announcements (Altcoins) board. Except a few ones, all of them include posts by high-merit users. Now at the time of writing a random topic which has posted in 2014 and has not received any reply is on the second place. I think one of high-merit users has bumped that only for testing. (It's great that it is affected only in 36 hours)
It's great that I can see the threads that are of interest to high-merit users.

two suggestions:
-Now the effect of clicking on the "bump" button is 15 times the effect of making a post on a thread. As a user can give bump score to a thread once per 24 hours by clicking on "bump" button and once per 7 days by making a post, the effect of clicking on the "bump" is much more.
I suggest to decrease the effect of super bumps.
-A bad review shouldn't help a thread bump. So, users should be allowed to make posts on threads without giving them bump score.

Edit: Now it's really difficult for new topics to be on the top. I think the effect of topic starter can be considered more. In this case, If a thread is started by a high-merit user, it has a more chance to be on top at least for 36 hours.
4754  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 11, 2019, 01:33:35 PM
This is somehow a deposit bonus like casino in which you need to make some wagered to get claim for it but need to finish whatever amount that you started. I do not know how they calculated it but still I only earn 0.028 by depositing a lot and by playing a lot as well. But still I can say it is not worth to claim and complete it anyway due to the house edge, let it stay there will be the best options, unless you are want to play it so bad and give a try to claim it then go ahead. Anyway you are lucky enough to have some affiliates here so you do need to play it hard to get some profit Cheesy
I also don't know how the amount of bonus that users are eligible for is calculated. I tried to find something in the website, But I couldn't.
Due to the 5% house edge, the website will never lose even if they allow users to claim bonus as much as they have bitcoin on their balance. Maybe they want to encourage players to wager more before claiming bonus.
4755  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 10, 2019, 10:29:57 AM
It's a bonus more similar to bonuses on various other casinos where there's a wagering requirement (it's not just free money). If you want to play Hi-Lo, it might be worth taking if you were going to wager near the rollover amount anyway, but it is a -EV bonus (25x rollover with a 5% house edge) and you're expected to lose 25% of your stake.
Completely right.
Here I give an example to make it more clear.
I claim 1000 Satoshis. 1000 Satoshis will be deducted from my balance and I will have 2000 Satoshis on my bonus account.
If I play HI/LO game and I wager 1 Satoshi 1000 times, the house edge guarantee that I will lose 50 Satoshis. (In long term, it is 100% true and that's why I considered the amount of each bet only 1 Sathoshi).
To become eligible to withdraw my balance from my bonus account, I have to wager 1000*25= 25,000 Satoshi. So, I will lose 1250 Satoshis. So, I become eligible to send the entire balance from my bonus account to main account when I have only 750 Satoshis.
4756  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: We are only rich on spreadsheets on: September 10, 2019, 09:10:35 AM
Many of the bounty hunters select the bounties based on the percentage of the tokens that are allocated to bounty and ICO price.
For example, a token total supply is 1,000,000,000. Each token cost 0.05 dollars ( what is written on bounty thread), 5% of the tokens will be allocated to bounty hunters. 25% to signature campaign.
The bounty hunter makes a simple calculation.
1,000,000,000*0.05*0.05*0.25=625,000 dollar.
The bounty hunter thinks that 625,000 dollar will be allocated to signature campaign participants. Then the bounty assume that he/she can earn at least 1% if the tokens that are allocated to signature campaign. So, the bounty hunter can earn 6250 dollar only by making 10-15 posts weekly for 8 weeks (as an example).
Many of bounty hunters think this way and this is their own fault. Earning money is not this easy especially in a market which people are no longer interested in ICOs/IEOs.

First, that number of tokens are usually allocated to bounty hunters only if the token sale reaches its hard cap.
Second, the real price is always lower than that price. You should consider the bonuses and especially the big discounts that are given to big investors privately.
Third, there is no interest in investing in ICOs. When there is no interest in ICOs there wouldn't be interest in buying the tokens on the market and the trading price will be lower.
 
It's your own fault if you think you can become rich only by making some posts in the forum.
If it was possible to big that big amounts of money in bounties, be sure trusted member of the forum were participating in these bounty campaigns instead of some bitcoin signature campaign with very lower profits.  
4757  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think 40% bonus is too much for early Investors? on: September 09, 2019, 06:32:22 PM
I think if a project is trustworthy enough and has something to be attractive for investors, there is no need for any bonus or discount to attract investors. Giving bonus is the easiest thing a team can do.
Sometimes bonuses cause the people to not invest in the project. Assume that some people have given 40% bonus at early stages. Now people afraid they dump their tokens. So they decide to not invest in the project. For solving this problem, they give 40% bonuses in next rounds too which means deceiving early stage investors.
So, I think 40% bonus is really big. In my opinion, bonuses shouldn't be higher than 10%.
The biggest problem which is the main reason of price dump in most of the projects, is not these bonuses. Usually, there are very bigger bonuses that are offered to big investors privately. When a token price dump 90% immediately after listing on exchanges, be sure there are some private investors that are making profit even by selling at 90% under ICO price.
Generally, 40% bonus is big. But I appreciate a team which give early investors 40% or even 60% bonus but they don't give higher bonuses to some others privately.  
4758  Other / Meta / Topics that should be discussed on "Off-topic" board. on: September 09, 2019, 04:45:32 PM
What I see under the "Off-topic" on the home page is: "Other topics that might be of interest to bitcoiners". According to this I don't think posts made in "Off-topic" board can be completely unrelated to cryptocurrencies.
I don't think topics about asking the favorite food, the favorite game or the favorite movie should be discussed on bitcointalk even on "Off-topic".
I don't think bitcointalk is an appropriate website for discussing whether should have a child or not, how to sleep better or how to spend free time.
Checking some signatures and their bounty threads, I found out there are some signature campaigns (including a few bitcoin campaigns) that are paying to users even for making posts on "off-topic" board.

4759  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Need help to explain this trx on: September 09, 2019, 04:00:21 PM
I guess the OP has withdrawn some amounts of Bitcoin and expected that amount to be sent from the deposit address and that's why it is said that "the address in not mine".
If I've understood the OP correctly, the answer is simple.
The wallet which the OP is using is a wallet which user has not full control over the bitcoins. It might be an exchange.
You deposit some bitcoins to the wallet, then that amount of bitcoin is sent to another address which is likely a cold wallet. When you withdraw some coins, they are sent from another address as your deposit address is empty.
4760  Other / Meta / How to detect plagiarism on: September 08, 2019, 09:03:31 PM
There are always some topics created by newbie alt accounts complaining about banning of the main account. If you read the posts, you will find out the reason of almost all of them is plagiarism.
Whenever I read the replies and find the post that has been copied, I say " How smart is the reporter"
As there are many posts in the forum, I think finding copy-paste posts is really difficult.

Please any one who has experience in finding copy-paste posts tell us how did you find them?
Any idea how can we find plagiarism?
Any one knows a strategy? If yes, let others know that. It can be helpful to find all copy-paste posts.


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