Hmm... has anyone else noticed that btct takes longer to notice that DMS.MINING shares have been transferred back to you versus DMS.SELLING? I basically have the ability to sell Selling nearly instantly after receiving shares back from the bot but I have to wait 5-7 minutes for mining to be able to be sold.
It's mainly a caching issue - strangely the API calls don't seem to have same problem. Transfer bot sends back to people - and even after it's sent I can't even see their incoming transfer in the website transaction history. Way I've found to force a cache refresh is to transfer 1 share to yourself - then it updates immediately. EDIT: also on sales never sell every sinlge share of something you plan to sell regularly. So always keep 1 MINING back in your case. Then you can place a sell order with correct quantity (even if it still only shows 1 as being held) and it WILL sell all of them properly. Client-side only validates you have SOME of them. Thanks, I had no idea about the 1 share transfer trick. It was what I figured out as a way to avoid missed ones whilst doing the transfers manually. Problem I always had was that I'd make a list of transfers to do then do them - but often there'd be other ones that had come in but didn't show up due to caching. But I noticed it always updated fully after I sent out a transfer. So I ended up doing transfers to myself to get to see an updated list which greatly reduced missed ones. |
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Hmm... has anyone else noticed that btct takes longer to notice that DMS.MINING shares have been transferred back to you versus DMS.SELLING? I basically have the ability to sell Selling nearly instantly after receiving shares back from the bot but I have to wait 5-7 minutes for mining to be able to be sold.
It's mainly a caching issue - strangely the API calls don't seem to have same problem. Transfer bot sends back to people - and even after it's sent I can't even see their incoming transfer in the website transaction history. Way I've found to force a cache refresh is to transfer 1 share to yourself - then it updates immediately. EDIT: also on sales never sell every sinlge share of something you plan to sell regularly. So always keep 1 MINING back in your case. Then you can place a sell order with correct quantity (even if it still only shows 1 as being held) and it WILL sell all of them properly. Client-side only validates you have SOME of them. |
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I applaud the move. I don't like diddling with the market either, but when the only thing happening is strictly exploitation of ignorance, it's for the best.
yeah i think its fair and reasonable and a good thing for the security going forward, just wish it had been communicated earlier. (maybe it was and I missed it?) I wasn't intending to do it - but when it became obvious there were going to be a pile of bids left up at over the new PURCHASE selling price I felt I had no option. |
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Transfer bot running again - it should have cleared the small back-log (4 people had already done transfers in).
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Balance in wallet matched one predicted in spreadsheet to 3 decimal places so everything tallied fine. All trading resumed and exchange bot going back on shortly. The mismatch on lower decimal places is because the spreadsheet doesn't round to 8 decimal places so calculates as though dividends were paid at higher precision.
~650 BTC paid out in dividends in total today - which is why I wasn't rushing to ivnest more earlier in the week.
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zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz are you really going to be clearing orderbooks from now on every cycle?
Only if there's a significant number of orders that plainly are errors (i.e. above the new PURCHASE selling price). That's the basis on which I've always cleared the PURCHASE order book. |
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Everything added up, so psoting report now before SELLING dividend has actually gone through. The extra 2nd section just shows the calcuation for the bonus dividend payment on MINING (at old rate) - I transferred 1.675 BTC across from my personal account to cover that.
Sold 10888
Swapped 0
Total 10888
Price 0.028
Total 304.864
Less Fee 304.254272
Man Fee 9.12762816
Units 94291
Excess Div 0.00001776
Refund 1.67460816
BTC Balance (BTC-TC) 1,954.60529492
10164 LTC-ATF.B1 101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8 202.15813140
Coinlenders CD 12/9 100.09569503
Just-Dice Balance 160.90000000
TOTAL ASSETS 2,519.39912135
Outstanding MINING 85734
Outstanding SELLING 85734
Outstanding PURCHASE 8557
Effective Units 94291
Block reward 25
Difficulty 50810339
Hashes per MINING 5000000
Daily Dividend 0.00004949
50 days (Min Liquid) 0.00247443
100 days (Forced Close) 0.00494886
365 days (Buyback) 0.01806334
405 days (IPO) 0.02004288
400 days (Post SELLING div) 0.01979544
410 days (Pre SELLING div) 0.02029033
NAV Post MINING Div 2,514.73279169
NAV/U Post MINING Div 0.02666991
Days Dividend Post Div 538.91
SELLING Dividend 0.00687447
NAV Post SELLING Div 1,866.53186237
NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.01979544
PURCHASE selling price 0.02079
PURCHASE buy-back price 0.01940
J-D House profit at report 4630
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SELLING order book has been cleared and it's back open. I won't be touching it again today.
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So long as everything adds up right after MINIGN dividend has paid, SELLING dividend will be : 0.00687447
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The exchange bot will be turned off briefly on the hour to prevent anyone getting to double-dip on dividends if PURCHASE ones happen to go out first. At that point I'll also clear SELLING orderbook and suspend it briefly - it'll be available again immediately for trading, it won't stay down (like PURCHASE will) until I've verified accounts are correct.
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...
So, I guarantee you that if that bid for 1000 shares is there when the dividend is paid, it will be filled.
Well that's where I'd likely have to clear orders. ... I'd MUCH prefer not to have to do that. Awww. There's always an adult around to ruin my fun. Seriously, most major exchanges automatically adjust prices after a dividend. It would be awesome if burnside implemented that feature. That would fix the problem. Yeah that would be the ideal solution. |
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It is due to panic. Speculators want to sell their DMS.SELLING shares before the current price of DMS.SELLING drops below the price they paid minus dividends. They see the buy orders getting filled and the price dropping, which reinforces the panic that they're going to end up taking a loss. When the dust settles, the price starts to rise again and MINING starts to drop.
Go and check the trade history like I said. It's pretty clear that the sell off is due to panic. You can clearly see that if the speculators waited an extra day to sell out instead of doing so right after the div payment, they would have made more profit.
I can tell you with 100% certainty that it is not "panic" selling. It is a competition for free money. I know for a fact that there are at least 3 people (including me) that try to sell to the bids immediately after the dividend is paid. Right now there is a bid for 1000 shares of selling at 0.022, I won't sell for less than 0.025. If the dividend is 0.007 as people predict, then the value of the shares will drop by 0.007. After the dividend, I won't sell for less than 0.018, but I will definitely sell for 0.022 (and make an instant 22% profit). So, I guarantee you that if that bid for 1000 shares is there when the dividend is paid, it will be filled. Well that's where I'd likely have to clear orders. I haven't got a spreadsheet updated for todays sales/investments etc - but what I DO know is exactly what the price of PURCHASE will be afterwards. It'll be 400 days of new dividend giving a PURCHASE selling price of .02079. If there's any significant amount of bids on SELLING above that then I can safely assume the owners wouldn't want the bids to remain and will really have no option but to clear the SELLING order book immediately before I pay the dividend. Whilst I try to stay out of the SELLING/MINING markets as a manager (I still buy and sell them just like anyone else) I really have no option but to intervene if it's apparent someone could suffer significant loss from not understanding the security (or being unexpectedly unable to get to a computer to cancel their orders). I'd MUCH prefer not to have to do that. |
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Would clearing the orderbooks after SELLING div payout be that bad?
It's not quite that easy. By the time the dividend finishes processing any high SELLING orders will have been filled anyway (pretty sure they get filled by people as soon as they receive their own dividend). So there's no window after dividend processing where an order book clear would be possible. And I can't predict when dividend payment will occur - sometimes it happens right after I put it up for immediate payment, other times I've seen dividends not even start for 10-20 minutes after I put them up for immediate payment. So only option is to lock the security and clear entire order book before I put the dividends up - and force people to try to market-make from scratch again afterwards. I'll admit to being tempted to do that this time - on past dividends there's never been orders that I could be certain the buyers wanted cleared (SELLING is now trading above even the highest bids filled post-dividend last time). This time it may be different - with potentially there being bids up above the new PURCHASE selling price. If there's a significant number of bids that would be above new PURCHASE then I'd have to consider it - much as I hate to interfere in the market to protect people who have only themselves to blame. |
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Maybe one solution is to lock the fund for a day after dividend paying, and people can only cancel orders in this period. Otherwise at least announce the dividend time one day in advance and warn those buyers leaving buying orders pending. Especially when there's a bot there to help converting Purchase.
I lock PURCHASE for trading and clear all orders on it just before the dividend gets paid but not SELLING. If I had a way to selectively clear orders then I'd willingly clear any orders that were above the new value for PURCHASE (if that occurs) - but my options are either to clear whole order book or clear nothing (for the record I DON'T believe issuers should have the ability to selectively clear orders). Problem with clearing SELLING totally is it penalises people who put up orders they wanted to leave up and aren't around to replace - I've personally put a buy up on SELLING intentionally shortly before dividend and watched it get panic-filled after. The principle of DMS has always been that I control the price of PURCHASE and MINING/SELLING are completely under the control of anyone who wants to buy/sell them. I don't intend to change that unless something unexpected ever happens - and SELLING dividends after difficulty changes are entirely expected, standard and predictable. As someone mentioned earlier, today's dividend will be somewhere around .0068 - .007 (exact value depends on how J-D did today, how many PURCHASE sell in total etc). MINING dividend today will be paid at old rate per my personal promise a while back - I'll be refunding the difference between old and new dividends to the fund (as I've done the few times before when difficulty changed between 16:00 and 00:00) with calculation for that included in the report.. |
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Because they sell hardware they are uniquely positioned to sell for more BTC then possible to mine with said sold hardware as already witnessed by the USB sales and with multiple massive fails of both BFL and Avalon it only makes them look better. Having said that at current price point YMMV.
Specifically, any piece of hardware they sell either makes back its BTC cost or doesn't. If it does make back its BTC cost then they would have actually been better served by not selling it, as they'd have mined the difference with it. That would be true if they had unlimited capital and/or all BTC were immediately mined (and they also had the ability to deploy unlimited mining gear). But as this is the real world neither of those things is true. Sometimes X BTC now is better than X*Y BTC in the future (Y being >1). Which is why it can make sense to sell mining rigs for less than what they'll mine - not that there's much sign of them actually doing that. |
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SNIP
Thanks - pretty much exactly the answers I'd hoped to receive. |
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Someone was doing arbitrage. So it might not have happened without the bot.
About 6 people were doing frequent arbitrage - I believe one of them may even be using a bot to do it. Majority of transfers come from a handful of people. |
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What is it you think you can do in 2 that suddenly removes 75% of SELLING's value whilst leaving MINING unchanged? Yes, you're right it doesn't work. It's pretty obvious too, now that I think about it  I didn't mean to multiply everything by four though. Only the mining side. Still, that would destroy the 1:1 ratio between mining and selling for the old shares, and the exchange into new would not work. Well, well. Well, not dividing SELLING by 4 was one of the possible step 2s. The high volume of trade yesterday would suggest a lot of people are still finding value in both SELLING and MINING - but at any price point there are going to be some who believe neither offers sufficient profit to be worth investing in. DMS only works at all because people have different views on the value of MINING/SELLING - if everyone agreed on value then they'd trade a discount to PURCHASE (representing perceived CP risk/time-cost of money) and there'd be zero new sales of PURCHASE other than to the occasional random-clicker. When MINING is a small portion of PURCHASE there doesn't have to be a HUGE perceived profit on SELLING for it to make sense. That's because any valuation which makes SELLING worth the vast majority of PURCHASE MUST be based on very large short-term difficulty increases. Very large short-term difficulty increases necessarily mean very large SELLING dividends in the near future - meaning most of the price paid for SELLING gets returned fairly quickly. That last point is where a lot of people go wrong. It's entirely WRONG to turn down an investment just because it can 'only' make 10%, 5% or 1% profit. Time-scale has to be taken into account. What's better - an investment that gives 60% profit after a year or one that gives 1% profit after a week (assuming an unlimited availability of both at all times - and that capital is returned at same time as the profit)? The 1% per week is better - as with compounding it outperforms the 60%. Percentage profit on its own is meaningless - it needs an associated time-period to be a useful measure. None of which is to deny that for ANY investor there IS a point at which buying neither of MINING or SELLING makes sense. But I can't run a seperate version of DMS for every investor based on how they want to price them - people who believe the price now matches their personal valuation (and won't change favourably) and so want to liquidate their position represent a key part of liquidity for the securities. |
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I just recently started trading this again and I have to say props on the Automatic Transfer bot,as it really seems to have sparked significantly increased trading volume.
Don't think the extra trading volume was because of the bot - though I'm glad it didn't show up until after the bot was running (there were over 100 transfers in of PURCHASE yesterday - more than I normally get in a week). I believe the extra trading volume is largely because MINING price has dropped to being a LOT cheaper than PMBs. That's led to more interest in it - and to MINING+SELLING being much nearer to PURCHASE (so if someone wants a MINING or a SELLING it's often been cheaper to buy a PURCHASE and sell the other half - which wasn't the case for a while). |
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Our 100 BTC Coinlenders CD matured today - left it in report as its final value.
I've bought a new one at same amount and am about to move the interest back to our BTC-T wallet. I could have sent more cash and made it a 200 BTC one as our assets were high enough but didn't as there'll be a large chunk going out on next SELLING dividend. What I'll do is in a week's time deposit more there and buy a new one once I see how much reinvestment there is after the SELLING dividend.
Today there was a LOT of activity on PURCHASE but I don't want to assume that will continue. If it does then I can purchase a third CD next week and have our CD returns better spaced out anyway. Ideally I'd like us to have 4 with one maturing each week. The difference in rates between a 100 BTC one and a 200 BTC one are pretty small in any event.
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