[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

Maybe one solution is to lock the fund for a day after dividend paying, and people can only cancel orders in this period. Otherwise at least announce the dividend time one day in advance and warn those buyers leaving buying orders pending. Especially when there's a bot there to help converting Purchase.

I lock PURCHASE for trading and clear all orders on it just before the dividend gets paid but not SELLING.

If I had a way to selectively clear orders then I'd willingly clear any orders that were above the new value for PURCHASE (if that occurs) - but my options are either to clear whole order book or clear nothing (for the record I DON'T believe issuers should have the ability to selectively clear orders).

Problem with clearing SELLING totally is it penalises people who put up orders they wanted to leave up and aren't around to replace - I've personally put a buy up on SELLING intentionally shortly before dividend and watched it get panic-filled after.

The principle of DMS has always been that I control the price of PURCHASE and MINING/SELLING are completely under the control of anyone who wants to buy/sell them.  I don't intend to change that unless something unexpected ever happens - and SELLING dividends after difficulty changes are entirely expected, standard and predictable.

As someone mentioned earlier, today's dividend will be somewhere around .0068 - .007 (exact value depends on how J-D did today, how many PURCHASE sell in total etc).

MINING dividend  today will be paid at old rate per my personal promise a while back - I'll be refunding the difference between old and new dividends to the fund (as I've done the few times before when difficulty changed between 16:00 and 00:00) with calculation for that included in the report..

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[Deprived]

Would clearing the orderbooks after SELLING div payout be that bad?

It's not quite that easy.  By the time the dividend finishes processing any high SELLING orders will have been filled anyway (pretty sure they get filled by people as soon as they receive their own dividend).  So there's no window after dividend processing where an order book clear would be possible.

And I can't predict when dividend payment will occur - sometimes it happens right after I put it up for immediate payment, other times I've seen dividends not even start for 10-20 minutes after I put them up for immediate payment.

So only option is to lock the security and clear entire order book before I put the dividends up - and force people to try to market-make from scratch again afterwards.

I'll admit to being tempted to do that this time - on past dividends there's never been orders that I could be certain the buyers wanted cleared (SELLING is now trading above even the highest bids filled post-dividend last time).  This time it may be different - with potentially there being bids up above the new PURCHASE selling price.  If there's a significant number of bids that would be above new PURCHASE then I'd have to consider it - much as I hate to interfere in the market to protect people who have only themselves to blame.

[odolvlobo]

It is due to panic. Speculators want to sell their DMS.SELLING shares before the current price of DMS.SELLING drops below the price they paid minus dividends. They see the buy orders getting filled and the price dropping, which reinforces the panic that they're going to end up taking a loss. When the dust settles, the price starts to rise again and MINING starts to drop.
Go and check the trade history like I said. It's pretty clear that the sell off is due to panic. You can clearly see that if the speculators waited an extra day to sell out instead of doing so right after the div payment, they would have made more profit.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that it is not "panic" selling. It is a competition for free money. I know for a fact that there are at least 3 people (including me) that try to sell to the bids immediately after the dividend is paid.

Right now there is a bid for 1000 shares of selling at 0.022. I won't sell for less than 0.025, but if the dividend is 0.007, then the value of the shares will drop by 0.007. After the dividend, I won't sell for less than 0.018, but I will definitely sell for 0.022 (and make an instant 22% profit).

So, I guarantee you that if that bid for 1000 shares is there when the dividend is paid, it will be filled.

[Deprived]

It is due to panic. Speculators want to sell their DMS.SELLING shares before the current price of DMS.SELLING drops below the price they paid minus dividends. They see the buy orders getting filled and the price dropping, which reinforces the panic that they're going to end up taking a loss. When the dust settles, the price starts to rise again and MINING starts to drop.
Go and check the trade history like I said. It's pretty clear that the sell off is due to panic. You can clearly see that if the speculators waited an extra day to sell out instead of doing so right after the div payment, they would have made more profit.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that it is not "panic" selling. It is a competition for free money. I know for a fact that there are at least 3 people (including me) that try to sell to the bids immediately after the dividend is paid.

Right now there is a bid for 1000 shares of selling at 0.022, I won't sell for less than 0.025. If the dividend is 0.007 as people predict, then the value of the shares will drop by 0.007. After the dividend, I won't sell for less than 0.018, but I will definitely sell for 0.022 (and make an instant 22% profit).

So, I guarantee you that if that bid for 1000 shares is there when the dividend is paid, it will be filled.

Well that's where I'd likely have to clear orders.  I haven't got a spreadsheet updated for todays sales/investments etc - but what I DO know is exactly what the price of PURCHASE will be afterwards.  It'll be 400 days of new dividend giving a PURCHASE selling price of .02079.

If there's any significant amount of bids on SELLING above that then I can safely assume the owners wouldn't want the bids to remain and will really have no option but to clear the SELLING order book immediately before I pay the dividend.  Whilst I try to stay out of the SELLING/MINING markets as a manager (I still buy and sell them just like anyone else) I really have no option but to intervene if it's apparent someone could suffer significant loss from not understanding the security (or being unexpectedly unable to get to a computer to cancel their orders).

I'd MUCH prefer not to have to do that.

[odolvlobo]

...
So, I guarantee you that if that bid for 1000 shares is there when the dividend is paid, it will be filled.

Well that's where I'd likely have to clear orders.  
...

I'd MUCH prefer not to have to do that.

Awww. There's always an adult around to ruin my fun. Seriously, most major exchanges automatically adjust prices after a dividend. It would be awesome if burnside implemented that feature. That would fix the problem.

[Deprived]

...
So, I guarantee you that if that bid for 1000 shares is there when the dividend is paid, it will be filled.

Well that's where I'd likely have to clear orders.  
...

I'd MUCH prefer not to have to do that.

Awww. There's always an adult around to ruin my fun. Seriously, most major exchanges automatically adjust prices after a dividend. It would be awesome if burnside implemented that feature. That would fix the problem.

Yeah that would be the ideal solution.

[FloatesMcgoates]

Yeah if you would not clear the orderbooks so I could make a larger profit that would be great 

[Deprived]

The exchange bot will be turned off briefly on the hour to prevent anyone getting to double-dip on dividends if PURCHASE ones happen to go out first.  At that point I'll also clear SELLING orderbook and suspend it briefly - it'll be available again immediately for trading, it won't stay down (like PURCHASE will) until I've verified accounts are correct.

[Deprived]

So long as everything adds up right after MINIGN dividend has paid, SELLING dividend will be : 0.00687447

[Deprived]

SELLING order book has been cleared and it's back open.  I won't be touching it again today.

[FloatesMcgoates]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz are you really going to be clearing orderbooks from now on every cycle?

[Deprived]

Everything added up, so psoting report now before SELLING dividend has actually gone through.  The extra 2nd section just shows the calcuation for the bonus dividend payment on MINING (at old rate) - I transferred 1.675 BTC across from my personal account to cover that.

Sold   10888
Swapped   0
Total   10888
Price   0.028
Total   304.864
Less Fee   304.254272
Man Fee   9.12762816
   
Units   94291
Excess Div   0.00001776
Refund   1.67460816

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,954.60529492
10164 LTC-ATF.B1    101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    202.15813140
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.09569503
Just-Dice Balance    160.90000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,519.39912135
   
Outstanding MINING   85734
Outstanding SELLING   85734
Outstanding PURCHASE   8557
Effective Units   94291
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   50810339
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00004949
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00247443
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00494886
365 days (Buyback)    0.01806334
405 days (IPO)    0.02004288
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01979544
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02029033
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,514.73279169
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02666991
Days Dividend Post Div   538.91
SELLING Dividend    0.00687447
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,866.53186237
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01979544
PURCHASE selling price    0.02079
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01940
   
J-D House profit at report   4630

[carnitastaco]

SELLING order book has been cleared and it's back open.  I won't be touching it again today.

damn I rearranged my schedule to try to be available to sell post div.

[Deprived]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz are you really going to be clearing orderbooks from now on every cycle?

Only if there's a significant number of orders that plainly are errors (i.e. above the new PURCHASE selling price).  That's the basis on which I've always cleared the PURCHASE order book.

[FloatesMcgoates]

SELLING order book has been cleared and it's back open.  I won't be touching it again today.

damn I rearranged my schedule to try to be available to sell post div.

Same, this kinda sucks.

[ThickAsThieves]

I applaud the move. I don't like diddling with the market either, but when the only thing happening is strictly exploitation of ignorance, it's for the best.

[Deprived]

Balance in wallet matched one predicted in spreadsheet to 3 decimal places so everything tallied fine.  All trading resumed and exchange bot going back on shortly.  The mismatch on lower decimal places is because the spreadsheet doesn't round to 8 decimal places so calculates as though dividends were paid at higher precision.

~650 BTC paid out in dividends in total today - which is why I wasn't rushing to ivnest more earlier in the week.

[carnitastaco]

I applaud the move. I don't like diddling with the market either, but when the only thing happening is strictly exploitation of ignorance, it's for the best.

yeah i think its fair and reasonable and a good thing for the security going forward, just wish it had been communicated earlier.  (maybe it was and I missed it?)

[Deprived]

Transfer bot running again - it should have cleared the small back-log (4 people had already done transfers in).

[Deprived]

I applaud the move. I don't like diddling with the market either, but when the only thing happening is strictly exploitation of ignorance, it's for the best.

yeah i think its fair and reasonable and a good thing for the security going forward, just wish it had been communicated earlier.  (maybe it was and I missed it?)

I wasn't intending to do it - but when it became obvious there were going to be a pile of bids left up at over the new PURCHASE selling price I felt I had no option.