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481  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 04:09:13 PM
Hearing rumors that gox has been bought out, can't confirm.

Well the rummors were in their html:



acq = acquisition

who would want to buy that crap.. i dont know

I hate to fuel rumors, but this is the speculation forum.  

Pure speculation, but in a logical world, the ONLY buyer would be someone whose reputation could dramatically overwhelm that of Gox.  this organization would suddenly benefit from hundreds of thousands (or whatever) of verified bitcoin accounts.  

An existing bitcoin player would seem undercapitalized.  It would have to be a financial services company.  But it all depends on how much Gox is under-capitalized.  Repairing a couple million dollar shortfall would be nothing to a large company -- in fact it could result in a massive profit if they've been buying Gox coins at the discount.

This would explain the activity on Gox and bitcoinbuilder -- it might be illegal and unethical for Gox to buy their own coins for 100 bucks, but I think that it would not be for agent X who (for example) buys 90% of the Gox coins trading at 5-20% of other exchanges, then turns around and buys the company for keep-me-out-of-jail prices.



482  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 25, 2014, 02:33:02 PM
I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

Why are you not already richer than me?  Shocked
I've only been in bitcoin for almost a year and I started with a VERY small deposit. It was supposed to be just for fun and to experiment with arbitrage (which never happened).

Fuck me.

Despite Bitcoin doing pretty much what I said it would do I have done pretty shite with the trades.

Came out my $626 short at $550, fearing yet another Bitcoin retard rally eating into my profits, then watched the price slip to $500 cursing myself every step of the way. I then went to bed setting 60 BTC worth of buy-ins at $390 ($391.34, to be precise). No staggered buy-in tranches or nothing, just all or nothing bet. Woke up and Bitcoin was back at $500. Turns out I missed 'all' by $8.66, so got nothing. I am way too overly impulsive to really make a good trader and this demonstrates exactly the sort of school-boy error that I am destined to repeat and repeat ad infinitum.

Give me a shout when you are next weighing up entering the market if you would! (like when u feel certain about a trade as opposed to the addictive impulsive bets that we all partake in, despite the fact they normally come to nothing and/or lose us money).

Here's a small tidbit of advice:  if your math comes out on the far side of a round number or other psychological support, put at least some of your bid on the near side of that support... because your math does not take into account human psychology.
483  Economy / Speculation / Re: RE: Gox -- this is what we wanted on: February 20, 2014, 05:04:53 PM
It is true that someone created this great decentralized commodity... and then we created a few simple points of failure in the form of exchanges.  MtGox has been failing since mid 2013.  An exchange you can't get money out of quickly and easily is not really an exchange.

It looks like the market has spoken with today's 50% collapse in GoxCoins, on top of the previous 50% discount.  I don't know how MtGox digs its way out from here.  Offering a discount on trades and maybe some free money to new customers just isn't going to cut it.  Their rather ambiguous 20 February update about having to move due to 'security issues' was a terrible move.  They've made the information vacuum go nuclear.  Were angry customers turning up at their address demanding their money back or something?

Agreed. Those praising the market collapse on MtGox don't understand that the same could happen, with some manipulation, on other exchanges too.
And then bitcoiners will be left with worthless digital tulip bulbs. Exchanges should be properly regulated and periodically audited.

MatTheTroll, Jimbo, BitcoinBobbeh, please stop spamming my thread.  (Wall observer is great for that)


Tzupy: I think that "properly regulated and periodically audited" is a slippery slope that can crush innovation.  Perhaps the most important thing regulators could do is give a free(r) pass for companies that move under X*10^6 (say) dollars per year, and almost no regulation for < 1 million.
484  Economy / Speculation / RE: Gox -- this is what we wanted on: February 20, 2014, 01:32:50 PM
The Gox debacle is showing the system is working.  No bailouts.  No TARP deal with the fed the prints $ for those who apply, devaluing everybody else.  The faulty part is removed from the BTC engine and replaced by better functioning and more diverse solutions.  Bitstamp, coinbase, bitfinex, ATMs.  Outside of BTC-land, the company gets bailed out and the people in charge remain to poison and drain the system of vitality forever. 

When the engine hiccups some people get burned, and I am very sorry if you are one of them. 

But bitcoin technology cannot help us if we don't USE it.  WHEN are we going to insist that BTC balances are held by exchanges in individual, blockchain-verifiable accounts?  Or even use multi-sig for greater security?  To stop every trade from appearing on the blockchain, these accounts could be "renormalized" daily or even weekly.

485  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 20, 2014, 03:04:08 AM
Risto is correct. Forum is full of idiots. Unfortunately I suspect I am high up on his idiots list. What I would say to that is that a shirt and a club blazer n tie, combined with restrained mannerisms don't a smart man make. I have had a few posts deleted from rpietila's 'quality' TA thread, which would be fair enough if only quality TA posts were allowed, but the entire thread is packed to the brim with much total nonsense as opposed to being composed of strictly 'quality TA', with much of the nonsense coming from rpietila himself.

I registered here in April 2013, and back then, I don't remember it being a whole lot different to be honest. Just as full of idiots being hugely rewarded for their idiocy causing them to think they were smart, tempered by the bitter lemons who had missed the bus and were willing the destruction of BTC in order to bring everyone else who had gotten way ahead of them back down to their level. In fact, I seem to remember many of the characters back then being more grotesque than those who are frequenting here today, but that could have a lot to do with what phase in the Bitcoin cycle we are presently in. The regular Bull-tards here today might attempt hubris, but it just isn't possible for their hearts to be in it like they were before.

There were as few people who I would have actually listened to back then as there are today. Someone who earnestly and exhaustively compiles a large post with graphs with lines drawn on them, but with his whole premises being based on some very shaky ground, is just as worthless as JimboToronto's mindless Bitcoin 2 da Moon drum beating or Igorr constantly telling us that Bitcoin will be worth 50p by the time the year is out........BitcoinSteve on the otherhand, now he raised a few eyebrows.

Lots of new usernames now... yes its painful but its also good.  Please remember to be as respectful as humanly possible to our newbies...

486  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 01:21:34 PM
with no way in or out gox should have have halted trading.  they could have opened on mon with a lot less damage than this. this is one point that indicates they are underwater and arbing to make it back.  

Halting trading is not in their interest. This last move is part of the long con.

I considered this but think that the price would be closer to stamp if gox was buying and arbing
487  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 01:16:06 PM
For very obvious reasons, gox price is *justifiedly* decoupled from stamp price.

If however the situation on gox continues, I don't think stamp will entirely stay unaffected. Not for practical reasons so much as for psychological reasons: gox price is still quoted in the world, and at some point, the nervousness will translate into selling pressure on stamp as well. Not enough to go sub 500 maybe, but enough to bring the two exchanges a bit more in line.

So, short term: if Gox enables BTC withdrawals, Stamp will go down because arbitrage. If Gox doesn't enable withdrawals, Stamp will go down because Gox dying will bring everyone down.

It looks to me like we are out of short-term scenarios where Stamp price goes up?

This is precicesly my point - Am i Missing something? I can't see any scenario where we're going to be going up from here on stamp

I'll play devil's advocate for a moment. Note that I don't consider the following the most likely scenario, but possible it is:

Gox re-opens withdrawals. Arb opportunity appears, dominantly in the form of outside fiat buying up "cheap" gox coins. The buying pressure removes the doubt about whether we've hit bottom, and we go back into rally mode (similarly to how the "bad" news of Silk Road last year actually marked the starting point of our rally that concluded in the December ATH).

yeah say btc withdraw reenabled.  it is the only way out.  all gox sellers now become buyers with little btc liquidity on exchange.  price rockets past stamp.

with no way in or out gox should have have halted trading.  they could have opened on mon with a lot less damage than this. this is one point that indicates they are underwater and arbing to make it back.  
488  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2014, 01:56:09 PM
Let me observe to all the newbies and bears that the most likely reason to fund this dust and malleability attack to to buy cheap coins...  Grin
489  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will any long term holders admit to cashing out or wanting to cash out? on: February 11, 2014, 01:09:28 AM
its hilarious esp. since op was seller at 5.  his timing is exactly wrong... big LT holders were selling in nov dec.  rpietela started it off.  goat bought some gold near parity and a lambo at 800+.  and others...

I think LT holders who didnt buy back in the  last 2 drops are finishing their purchases now.  with all the positive infra news the coin is only going to appreciate.  Gox is irrelevant and has been ever since you couldnt cash out.
490  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Welcome Armory users! on: February 10, 2014, 10:54:20 PM
what github branch should we use if we want something that is mostly stable but contains the latest bug fixes?

EDIT: tried "master" branch seems to work fine
491  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Self Regulation Or Else ... Govt Intervention on: February 10, 2014, 07:40:30 PM
When things are all rosy and profits are flowing everyone wants govt to go away, but as soon as markets fall, profits turn to losses, business leaders get irresponsible, and customers service is nowhere to be found suddenly govt is speed dial 1.

2014 is the time when the various facets of the cryptocurrency industry must start forming alliances to monitor, certify, verify, or otherwise regulate the industry. sector by sector.  

Yesterday's pump and dump hurt tomorrows promising CC start-ups.  Security must be increased on every level.    The cryptocurrency community must prove to the world that it can be trusted with the world currency even if it has 300 different faces.


Massive regulation did not stop MANY banks from failing in 2008+.  And note that the USG seizure of Gox's 5 million+ bank account (because of a mis-filled form) was the start of its problems... what would you think about regulation if that event was what caused Gox to go fractional?

It is impossible and unnatural to prevent failures.  Failures are part of the natural process.  The failure process ends what is going bad and recycles those people and resources into more productive things. 

It is up to the individual to gauge the risk profile when depositing money with any corporation.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket.  Typically, smart bitcoin buyers and sellers have their coins/fiat on exchanges for as short a time as possible.  Bitcoin lets individuals hold funds themselves conveniently.  So those people leaving funds in Gox were chasing the 25% premium through arbitrage, and risking complete loss due to exactly this situation.  Bailing the Gox bag-holders out at this point (which is impossible with BTC, but let's imagine somehow it happens) will simply encourage this behavior in other instances.  This lack-of-risk is one reason why we see banks making bad loans in the fiat world.  Perhaps this event will encourage individuals to insist that exchanges have individual blockchain-verifiable wallets for each depositor.  After all, the advantages of bitcoin are useless if you don't USE them!

But there is a very important role for the government.  It is up to the government to handle chapter 11 fairly and identify whether any criminal misrepresentations, or criminal misuse of funds were made by employees of the company and if so to carry out the will of the people in regards to punishment.



492  Economy / Speculation / Re: MTGOX hits $570 "A bug in the bitcoin software makes it possible for someone to" on: February 10, 2014, 01:55:26 PM
Obviously this press release begs the question "how many BTC did Gox lose?"  And in my opinion, if Gox was solvent they would have said something reassuring in that regard.

EDIT: LOL, Tzupy and I are feeling the same vibe!
493  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2014, 04:25:26 AM
haha I hope gox takes all fiat and dump all coins on bitstamp and then run like hell. It has been so long since the last major scam, it's about time.

No no... running would not be suitable.  It wouldn't be Bitcoin unless ALL the Gox employees (and one or two "friends" of Gox whose role is totally nebulous) institutionally forgot about private email and started accusing each other of everything under the sun and talking to lawyers right on this very forum in front of the Bitcoin public.

now THAT's bitcoin!
494  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2014, 02:23:50 AM
Ok so it seems Gox is just going to be dead. Other exchanges are already getting ready to replace it from there.

-> http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-takes-first-step-to-becoming-us-exchange-with-new-seller-service/

apologies on posting out of turn, still catching up, but this second market thing started out like this exclusive club, only for "sophisticated" investors.

And now some bat-shit crazy mofo like myself with a measly 25 bitcoin in my wallet can get in on the action?

Whatever, I guess I'm glad to be part of the club?

no as I read it you can sell or buy btc from them.  you cant be part of their fund.
495  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2014, 05:21:03 PM
What happened guys?  Huh  You are all supposed to panic and sell like sheep!  Grin  But the price is just down a bit and holding.  Could it be that members of this forum are growing up (as investors).  Wink

PS:  If the runup to 1000 was a bubble, this has got to be the weirdest, longest "return to normal" ever...
496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stealth transfer of bicoins from day tarders to hodlers on: February 05, 2014, 06:55:06 PM
I don't really understand the days destroyed thing. What'sit mean?

On the blockchain how often are coins moved?  If a 2 coins sit untouched for 10 days, and then are moved that is 2x10=20 days destroyed. 

People could be moving the coins for many reasons, but traders assume that a big reason to move old coins is to put them on an exchange and sell them.
497  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THE REAL BTC REVOLUTION no one talks here about!!! on: February 05, 2014, 03:04:06 PM
Have you ever considered your lack of privacy when using BTC ? (Or any other cryptocurrency?)
Do I really need to explain your lack of privacy? Think yourself.

Ok if you havent found anything then:blockchain is a log of all btc transactions ever.
Its not hard to identify anyone who doesnt take al the needed steps to make their address remain anonymous.Think AGAIN
The more is known about you (like what you bought with that address) the more singled out you can be from everyone which means less anon.

With physical money it isnt that easy to know everything every person ever bought.



Im sorry if I misunderstood something but bitcoin wiki has:
Quote
A block chain is a transaction database shared by all nodes participating in a system based on the Bitcoin protocol. A full copy of a currency's block chain contains every transaction ever executed in the currency.


Ok.  What are all the things I've bought with bitcoin? 

The reality of privacy is somewhere in between cash and credit cards, but I think its much closer to cash.  Also, please consider that today's cycle: exchange->purchase->exchange makes identification much easier since people are identified at the exchange.  But as Bitcoin becomes more popular and is sent person-2-person like cash it will become more like cash WRT privacy because it will be very hard to trace a chain of 20 transfers (you have to ask all 20 individuals who they sent it to) to find the 21st.

But of course if some address in the chain of transfers is also used to receive money from an exchange, then a short-cut exists.  So the difficulty to trace really is the shortest path from the transaction in question to an exchange.





498  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Petition-letter to regulator Ben Lawsky of NY "The World is Watching on Bitcoin" on: February 05, 2014, 02:53:09 PM
Exactly!  Those two comments bothered me as well.

We included the 1000 flowers comment in the letter.

The other point would be great to include as well if we had space.

It's so odd for a regulator to suggest that as a solution to the massive burdens of regulation "oh, just have venture capitalists pick the best businesses and fund them"

First off all it's terrible business....VCs have enough risks without adding $2-3 million on regulatory costs which offer no ROI, second it discriminates against small and lifestyle businesses ...which are BY FAR the biggest employers in the US and the world.   Very wrongheaded thinking.

The quote is at 57:00, I can't figure out who the regulator is though...
I don't think my long and detailed explanation is necessary.  I think just a sentence or two will suffice.  Maybe:

"In contrast to the comments made by Mr.  XXX (day 1, time 57:00) about how startups are created, the reality of the very early stage startup is that it often operates without funding or investors.  Venture capitalists often enter after a business model has proven itself in the local market to drive it nation or worldwide.  To require even 50k in regulatory fees or excessive time burden is going to eliminate startups like Intel and Facebook (which began in a garage and a dorm room, respectively) and perhaps more importantly, this barrier to entry will grant essentially a monopoly on Bitcoin startups to well-funded VCs at the expense of the individual hard-working entrepreneur.  Rather than face this burden, these very-early-phase startups will simply incorporate in another jurisdiction."

499  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Petition-letter to regulator Ben Lawsky of NY "The World is Watching on Bitcoin" on: February 05, 2014, 12:43:14 PM
great letter!  there were 2 things that the regulators said that bothered me.  the first was the 1000 flowers the second was a comment from the guy to the right about startups.  something like surely you can fund them for a few millions if you fund them at all?   this question was largely ignored but the reality of the early startup scene (esp. for new tech) is more "throwing sh*t against a wall to see what sticks" than it is a careful cash infusion.  that comes later.  by requiring even 100k to be spent on regulatory compliance you both dramatically limit the number of early phase startups that can be funded AND essentially grant a monopoly on startups to the VCs to the detriment of the individual who wants to be an entrepreneur. the section "consideration of the various costs of regulation" would be a good spot for this.
500  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Scammer Matthew N Wright wants to sue Theymos lulz!!! on: February 04, 2014, 10:17:46 PM
I stand corrected. OK, IIRC some people were attempting to hedge their bet on Pirate by 'pledging' coins to MNW, and in the process they increased the amount they sent to Pirate, confident that someone of MNW's stature would definitely honour the debt.
It's quite likely that a lot of people who claimed to have invested with Pirate and gotten paid were just Pirate himself. Particularly in the early days, this would have boosted his credibility. Once he knew he was never going to pay out another dime, he has every incentive to have those shills sell the non-existent debt on the open market at a discount, to make even more money. MNW's bet made people more likely to believe Pirate would pay out, and thus allowed Pirate to sell these fake obligations for a higher price, taking more money from people. That is, MNW likely inadvertently helped Pirate prolong and increase his scam.

And so did Goat who posted something like:  I know what pirate's business model is and its legitimate.  This posting caused endless speculation about the business model, boosted Pirate's credibility, and (since the Goat had a Pirate pass through) may have resulted in profit for himself.

At the same time, it seems like Goat may have learned to watch his words more carefully (after all, its unclear whether casual statements made on an online forum are legally binding) whereas MNW seems unchanged and very clearly entered into bets with many individuals.

Yet... it seems to me that millions of dollars is much more than is needed for a forum overhaul.  You could fund an internet startup for years on that.  The honest thing to do would be to return a large fraction of the donations to the address that donated (and only to that address), if individuals can prove that they own the address and want a refund.  [We don't want the coins landing back in the Gox wallet!]
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