Now this is what I call a Bearapocalypse.....which is made up of a series of events that seem likely to de-value BTC.
The full effect shall not be happening until all this week.I think we can pretty much preclude there won't be any major USD flowing into Gox soon and I wonder if this has anything to do with the Coinlab/Gox lawsuit that made the authorities look into this further?
I think we can obviously expect quite a bit of selling over the next few days.
Obviously? Nonsense! Remember this....? Government cracks down on fiat payment method? Bitcoin user not affected. Furthermore the world is a lot bigger than the USA. |
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I'm really surprised this doesn't get mentioned more often, but, there are a lot of people out there now, wealthy people, early adopters and new players alike, that have vested interest and a genuine belief in this technology. The market is thin enough that these people can help ensure the price and volatility does not reach a level that could cause a level of panic which would create harm to its now escalating adoption.
The U.S. government is attacking this thing with flailing arms, and while it can scratch and do some superficial damage, the mark will be missed. This time, it really is up to the people.
Agreed. They are a few years too late in any endeavor to seriously attack bitcoin and not come off as tyrannical. The average Joe doesn't know what kind of power the banking cartel/monopoly has, and they certainly don't want him to wake up. They will tread carefully. On a happier note, I transferred funds to Gox via Dwolla this morning. Hours later I get the DHS email. Regardless, they funded my account for the full amount just a little while ago. I doubt they want to loose customers over this. Agree... And the key part here is that Bitcoin is now even more clearly te best way to move money. By cracking down on fiat movements (Dwolla), they can only make Bitcoin's perceived value as a medium of transfer increase. If the aim is to attack Bitcoin, this will prove to be a massive own goal. Meanwhile, Bitcoins are now cheap, it's Wednesday, and Europe, which doesn't use Dwolla, is just waking up. Great time to buy. |
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$100 has held firm this time... We're seeing higher lows at each successive dump.
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Are we going to break out of the downward channel?  A 6-hour timeframe and candles already overlapping your line does not make a "channel" |
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They are trying to destroy what they can't control. What they can't control is where I want to be. Screw it, I'm buying more coins today. Wasn't planning to, but this entire thing just proves how stupid it is to hold on to dollars.
Exactly this. They are cracking down on people rightfully receiving US$ they own. .. And people's reaction is to buy more $$$? I'm speechless. When this happened in Cyprus (authorities halting fiat movement), the price of BTC went up. Bitcoin is the solution to these problems... We are witnessing the beginning of the last gasps of authority recklessly trying to hold onto a broken monetary system. It's time to properly separate the concerns of government and finance. |
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Here we go again?
Give it up already... |
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... And the knee-jerk reaction is to buy more fiat?
Suit yourselves.
Considering how much we hear about "Freedom" from the US, I was hoping for better... Instead, people are just playing into the authorities' hands.
In Bitcoin you have a perfect vehicle to become immune to these kinds of arbitrary crackdowns.
First they came for your Dwolla receipts. Next they will come for your .....
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Bears undoing a days worth of good work in minutes. Again.
This is all very boring and disappointing to watch.
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A single person is propping up LTC, so it's not like it would take some kind of elaborate scheme.
My theory is similar but the motive behind it is just plain old greed by a 'whale'. I suspect someone is propping up the price by placing the massive bid walls with his fiat while at the same time selling his remaining BTC at the artificially propped up price. When someone buys BTC at this level a seemingly never ending supply of BTC is put straight back into the asks at very similar if not identical prices. I'd be surprised if this is related to the conference in any way. When this whale has sold enough of his coins the bids will disappear and he will dump the remainder creating a free fall so he can buy back cheaper and repeat the whole process. For example, take the last 5 days. The bid and ask walls are still there and look about the same size to me. Yet somehow within the confines of these walls nearly 150,000 BTC have changed hands. During that time the price hasn't changed that much. Nearly all of these BTC that have changed hands were not part of the solid 'walls' so they are being traded within the confines of the 'trap'. Just a theory of mine. And the only way to foil his scheme? Ignore the fake panic sells. And it looks, to me, like people did start just doing that.... So maybe that's why we now have relatively long-term stability -- manipulators biding their time until the tactics work again. |
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$1M usd disappeared today from the order book. We may see cheap coins soon  We all had many chances now to buy cheap coins. How much longer will it make you extremely happy to see Bitcoin go down instead of up? Another year? 5 years? ^ this. It's been more than long enough now. Cheap coins are pointless if you keep cheapening them. |
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Quick news flash.
Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)
All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.
70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy. But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year. But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives. That's a vast over-estimation. I'd say 30 million would be more accurate. There are about 30 million Chinese with income comparable to US/EU. The vast majority are much lower. New college grads make about $500/month salary in China, and that's considered very good start salary for a college grad.
Regarding Chinese purchasing power: The market for luxury goods in the People's Republic of China composes a significant proportion of all luxury goods sales worldwide. As of 2010, China is the world's second largest consumer market for luxury goods,[1] next only to Japan,[2] and having surpassed the United States in 2009.[3]The World Luxury Association estimated the total amount of consumption for luxury goods in China was US$8.6 billion in 2008. This accounted for 25% of the world's luxury goods sales. According to Ouyang Kun, the Chief Representative of the World Luxury Association in China, "The disposable income of Chinese people has been constantly rising in recent years. Global luxury brands now see China as the next Japan."[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_goods_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_ChinaBy some forecasts China will be the second-largest consumer market in the world by 2015, not far behind America. Chinese people already buy more cars than people in any other country: 13.5m last year to Americans' 11.6m. China is on its way to becoming the biggest luxury-goods market. The central government made an increase in domestic consumption one of the priorities of its latest five-year plan. http://www.economist.com/node/18928514The feelgood factor A survey by McKinsey of Chinese consumers found that after an initial burst of “if you’ve got it, flaunt it”, motives for buying foreign luxury brands were becoming more subtle. Some respondents saw having the right car as a visiting card with which to impress potential business partners. Many considered a fancy car a delightful self-indulgence rather than something to show off to others. Mr Müller-Ötvös sees the same trend among Rolls-Royce buyers: they are less interested in exterior bling, more in interior comforts, “like having the fur inside your coat”. In China the market for luxury cars in the past decade has grown by an average of 36% a year, far outstripping the 26% annual rise in its overall car market. Even as growth slows down in the next few years, McKinsey expects the premium-car market to maintain a lead, expanding by an average of 12% a year to 2020, compared with around 8% for the car market as a whole. By then China will be the biggest market for luxury cars. http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21576225-why-everyone-wants-be-top-end-market-dreams-wheelsDon't forget the biggest point -- there are more millionaires in China that anywhere else in the world. The average income per capita may be low; but the population of affluent potential investors is extremely high -- there are plenty of people with silly money here. |
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Do you guys know how Chinese fought for the gold price downturn? Especially many many grandpas and grandmas...
If we can teach them bitcoins are better than gold, then you will laugh to wake.
Good luck with teaching the grandpas and grandmas what Bitcoin is, helping them with the hassle of downloading a 10gb blockchain and persuading them to buy something that does not really exist. The Chinese people in the last generation are very conservative and undereducated, they still believe in the lies from the CCP and chairman Mao, do you really expect them to buy a Bitcoin? Yes, but only when the CCP or chairman Mao asks them. First of all -- they do not need to download any blockchain. Second of all -- trading in China is surprisingly easy, with numerous instantaneous fiat transfer methods that are better than wire transfer. Thirdly -- these very same "uneducated grandmas and grandpas" right now spend their days in front of computer screens trading high-risk stocks. Seriously, a huge proportion of them are in on the trading game, purely for speculation -- far more than the west. Finally -- they generally love a good gamble. Don't get me wrong -- I don't think there is any effect on the price from China, I believe it is largely made up hyperbole. But don't misrepresent China. |
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China hype fades away... maybe... Price looks fine though.
About 3 new China BTC exchanges have been launched in the past week. Should give you some idea of the interest.
And the best one is yet to launch ;-) Link is probably being announced tomorrow -- PM me if you want a preview.
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Bunch of negativity in the Wall observer thread = time to buy.
But then, it's (usually) always time to buy...
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wow so i wasn't that badly off buying at 110$ last night.
But i still think we see some massive dumping at 120$ back to around 100 to 110$.
The massive dumps don't work any more -- it's just flushing away cheap coins down the toilet. I think people will wise up. |
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It's a strong possibility.
Short-term dumps are over. Seriously -- you'd have to be a bit thick to keep on dumping hoping to affect the market in order to get "cheap coins". The message must be getting through by now.
These last few weeks have been fantastic buying opportunities for the rest of us.
It's been a negative news cycle -- all too expected really after the ridiculous euphoria earlier; and we saw a correction rather than a be-all-end-all crash.
We're seeing the start of a positive news cycle now, with Coinbase receiving significant funding, and other new exchanges opening up. Bitcoin conference just around the corner, with plenty of new deals being announced I'm sure. Speculators are looking a bit more mature this time around too. Alt coins are looking increasingly silly -- the pump 'n dumps there are done too.
The sub-$150 doldrums will soon be a thing of the past.
I don't discount a few last-gasp efforts to temporarily depress the price -- people always have a capacity to be more stupid that you expect, but clearly there are diminishing returns in that route. So, the only way is up really...
Once buying pressure resumes, breaking through $200 by 22 May is a very real possibility. I'd say ~40% likelihood; another 40% likelihood we will be between $150 and $200.
TLDR: I voted "Yes". :-)
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Next break downwards imminent ...  How did you tell that or was it just lucky timing? What are you talking about? There is no "break downwards", and there will not be. We're just seeing normal fluctuations with fairly low volume -- and each trough is higher than the previous. There is no sign of a downward break.... but if we do break down, it won't be for a few days. Equal chance we break to the upside at the moment IMO. |
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Solex bought just to troll me.  Haha. I wish. There are degrees of boldness and the wall of fame has some real doozies. To be fair, your prediction is milder than most. FWIW, I agree with Ares, we are seeing an upper channel break-out. But is it a fake-out of a break-out? I am sure Rpietila has a view! It looks fair value at 110 right now. I bet you never guessed that!  :-) Right this time! |
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I guess you mean that speculators are pushing the price up and down wildly. True, but I don't think anyone can or should stop them. Even if it "hurts" the growth and adoption of bitcoin.
More market makers will help settle the price by increasing the cost of speculation. I don't think anyone really fell for "China => up" (There are already plenty of China exchanges.), but it was a nice try. A lot better than the arguments I read for the price going down. |
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