I grant you the bolded part. I think we all agree that long term Bitcoin will be huge - the truth is that we are all bullish about BTC at the end of the day, which is normal because this is bitcointalk.org
We just differ on short-term moves, on which is the top or bottom for the next few days, or weeks… I have to agree with you that it seems that we will not have such a pronounced decline as in 2011, and the recovery will also be faster. Heck, I even think that we won't go below $50 again - that's pretty bullish in my book, considering that in January we were below $20. I don't know if consolidation will be 2-3 months or 6 months, but it definitely doesn't looks like an entire year of decline + another full year for consolidation like we had after the burst of the 2011 bubble.
In 2011 a lot of people screamed "PONZI!!" and turned their backs to BTC. A lot of people thought Bitcoin was gone for good. It seems to me that now the mentality is much different: people knows Bitcoin is here to stay, and it's just a matter of WHEN the next growth cycle will start.
That's fucking deep, man.
Also, I tend to agree. What many people seem to forget when they talk about "fundamentals" vs. "market craze" is that, in the real world, there are two possibly outcomes wrt. bitcoin usage (I'm simplifying, in reality there's a near-continuum of outcomes, but follow my line of thought for a second): 1) bitcoin succeeds. 2) bitcoin fails.
If 2), our investment is toast anyway. But if 1), well, then at some point even the most bearish market participants will agree that it's being adopted, and will start buying, thus drivin the price up.
Now, we have no influence on the question if it'll be scenario 1) or 2) (another simplification. the whole thing is a feedback loop, so our market actions do actually influence fundamentals/adoption). So the only question to answer for us is
how is the market sentiment now, and in the near future?. And I think you described it accurately: it's not so much that most people think "Damn, we're going down", or even "I hope we're not going down any further", but rather "Even if we go down, my long term conviction is we're going up, so I'm going to load up on coins at the lowest possible price.", or at most something like "I hope we're not going down *too* much, or recovery will take too long."
Let's say that's an accurate description of the market sentiment. Then the price won't really have a chance to slide down in a slow trajectory like it did in 2011. Hit bottom a few more times? Maybe. Test 50 again? Sure, could happen. But any correction still necessary won't take place at such an indifferent speed like back then.
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