Armstrong speculates about the how the short-term events are interacting with his longer-term macro cycles. He has clarified numerous times those short-term discussions are not predictions. They are a combination of signals that his various shorter-term models give, and his personal interpretations which morph over time as he gains clarity.

But that has nothing to do with the more reliable cycles. He has stated numerous times that the short-term is much more noisy than the longer-term cycle turns.

And again today he clarified the jobs number and its implied impact on interest rates is just noise:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37698

I am sorry but there is so much bullshit out there on the internet. You can't just cite everything you read as fact because it isn't:

http://chriskresser.com/does-dairy-cause-osteoporosis/
http://www.drcate.com/raw-milk-why-mess-with-udder-perfection/
http://www.globalhealingcenter.com/natural-health/raw-milk-vs-pasteurized-milk/
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/07/18/the-milk-myth-what-your-body-really-needs.aspx
http://www.westonaprice.org/blogs/cmasterjohn/the-biochemical-magic-of-raw-milk-and-other-raw-foods-glutathione/

First of all you can't leap to cite any shit about milk, because ostensibly none of the research is being done with raw, grass fed, A1 casein milk. Pasteurized milk isn't milk. Grain fed milk isn't milk. A2 casein GENETICALLY MODIFIED cows don't produce milk. Rather those are Frankenstein foods where all the enzymes and micro-nutrients have been destroyed. I suggest you pasteurize your GENETICALLY MODIFIED vegetables (and add heapings of pesticides and fertilizer to bring them to parity with Frankenstein Holstein cow's shit we drink), then run some studies on how unhealthy vegetables are.

arielbit pointed out up thread this point that cows that were fed the wrong shit couldn't even sustain their own calves.

It amazes me that people can't figure these basic things out and fall for that disinformation as you did. Sigh.

Why did my toothache subside after drinking lots of raw milk? Why did I have some of the strongest bones for a small 169cm guy who played American football (the helmet) and NEVER BROKE A BONE even though I did break the bones of some of the other players!

There is no way you can make a sane argument that native diary and native animal meat are unhealthy. That is absolute nonsense for idiots who can't discern between modern Frankenstein poisons that we label as "food" and the actual food that nature has produced for 1000s of years.

If raw milk is so bad, then please explain to me why today on my day after drinking raw milk, I had a miraculous day which is the first day in years where I felt incredibly strong.

I had the most intense sports day today. How can I describe my day? It is unbelievable. Here is 11pm and I am still jumping touching the ceiling. I powered through a barbell workout jumping around between sets and just exploding all over the place. I powered through very heavy weight like it was nothing.

I was running back and forth full speed on the full court basketball at midday tropical heat in the Philippines and not getting tired. I was exploding to rim with a power I thought was gone forever. After exploding to the rim, instead of feeling like I was ready to collapse, I was jumping, growing like a lion, and headed back down the court full speed to fly in the air and bam again two hand finger roll right near the lip of rim. A 50 fucking year old man who just last week could hardly fucking get out of bed.

What did you fucking say about milk  

(you have a confirmation bias and seek anything which can validate your vegan diet as being the best, thus you do not attempt to view the question objectively. It would make no sense at all that what humans have been eating for 1000s of years would be unhealthy for humans. Just a little common sense about the preponderance of time scales would tell you that your nonsense of the current day fad and disinformation is just that.)

P.S. I am back to 70 kg. So I gained 5 kg in roughly a week. And this isn't all fat gain. I am still looking very lean and muscles fibers very visible. This is muscle gain mostly. I really made a big jump in muscle mass from that day of drinking raw milk and eating native chicken and goat. When I woke up this morning, I felt like an ox.

Armstrong has never said that interest rates would turn higher on the day of 2015.75.

It has always been about knowing that 2015.75 marked a sea change in the fact that Europe (and Japan with Abenomics and China with its repeated reinflations) had been able to forestall their collapse ever since Mario Draghi (another Goldman Sachs alumni) had made his famous "line in the sand" speech. It demarcates a shifting from the bounce to 2011, then the forestalling treading water from 2011 to 2016, and now the drive into the abyss but with the international capital running home to the dollar for one last hooray for the dollar reserve system. Then after 2017.9, total chaos.

If you are focused on some market pricing event that happens on 2015.75, then you haven't even understood anything about the ECM and Armstrong's modeling.

I am so happy to note that today I had my first perfect looking feces in a long time (months?). Perfect consistency, not too soft not too hard, not mushy nor sticking to side of toilet bowl like tar as it had been!

Today marks the start of the 5th day of not experiencing any significant symptoms, 4th day of pooping in the morning regularly, and 5th day of somewhat, gradually improving energy level. When I say improving energy level, the energy level has been still far too low to do everything at the pace I am accustomed to, except today I feel I might have that former stores of bursts of energy lurking (heading to gym to find out). My entire life I had been the EveryReady Energizer Bunny up until this malaise hit me around 2008 or so (worsening significantly in 2012). But I am also having some lingering conflicting condition today (as has been the case past 5 days), where I felt every so often a slight tinge of pain in my gut and a slight adverse feeling at my head and a slight numbness below the knee. As well, I still have the lingering cough and phlegm.

P.S. I forgot to mention I have increased my sea salt intake considering over the past few days.


I have had very serious condition that made it very difficult to find the energy to walk down the stairs or even put on or take off my shoes.

But what may be difficult for you to grasp because you will not encounter many people like me unless you are around top athletes such as a Kobe Byrant or Lance Armstrong, is that even if I can't put my shoes on, somehow I will dig deep and force myself to go out and run 2 kms even though I feel as though I could collapse and pass out during the extremely arduous endeavor. Your average person wouldn't ever put themselves through such pain. You don't understand that what separates most athletes who play in the NBA from the superstars is not only talent, but more so that attitude that very few people have that they can endure massive amounts of pain and they subject themselves to intense gut wrenching effort to reach their goal.

Let me try to explain it to you this way. When I was a young boy up until my teenage years, I would relish pouring only scalding hot water (enough to burn my skin until it had cooled simply from the tub and my body absorbing much of the heat) in the bath tub and then counting how many seconds I could hold my breath completely submerged. I would only be able to get my toes in the water at first, because it burned so much, then slowly to my knee, then slowly until my entire body was in the water.

At age 5, I relished playing tackle football in my grass front yard every day striving to get as many bloody noses as I could.

In 10th grade, we did during the August tropical heat in New Orleans (32 degrees Celsius, 80 - 90% humidity) two 4 hour workouts a day. We were in full pads, helmet, and running and exerting non-stop for 8 hours daily in that intense sweltering heat and humidity. There were small flying bugs (gnats) flying all up in our helmets and we were tackling each other into the wet grass in the morning workout. I was literally so exhausted that I would not be able to move the entire lunch and night I would lay on a wooden floor and not move. I had to take salt tablets to deal with extreme cramping due to loss of sodium from perspiration.

So indeed, I have been fighting an absolutely debilitating condition. After I would exert myself, I'd collapse on the floor and I'd be lucky to raise my arm after an hour or so of laying there.

I told everyone my uncorrected vision declined from 20/40 to 20/70 from early August to late September. My condition was getting to the point where I was spending the vast majority of my days in bed. And I was losing function. So yes heading towards crippled or zombie and  pretty much that way already, except for me fighting it with all the effort I could muster in short bursts of teeth gritting, gut wrenching effort (crawl out of bed onto the concrete road and force the Go button, feeling like shit most of the entire run).

Also reflect on the theory which seems to have strong support in my case that M.S. is linked to gut bacterial dysbiosys, because we have more gut bacteria than human cells and we don't digest food without the correct diversity and balance of microflora and M.S. appears to be the disarray of dysfunctional synergy between metabolism and immune system. Thus correcting this condition appears to be about a synergy of diet, exercise, sleep, and probably also environmental inputs such as vitamin D3 from the sun and day light exposure of the eyes and skin to get the proper sleep cycle going.

---

But let's get back on topic. This week I began experiencing a toothache. Never in my life did I have cavities nor any problem with my teeth. Why? Because I drank milk until my 30s. I have very strong teeth.

Dairy is important for calcium also.

Indeed for those who have heart disease, I can see abstaining from any fats (of any source) as beneficial during the critical period of healing from that condition.

But what got you in that condition in the first place? It could be genetic predisposition, but it could also be about not getting enough exercise and about eating all those Frankenstein foods in our modern, industrialized world.

When I say you go too far and being a religion, I don't mean that you do it because of not wanting to hurt animals (frankly when we killed the 2 native chickens yesterday, I decided it didn't taste good enough to me or given me good enough feeling to justify seeing those chickens crying and facing their death...I'd rather eat tuna and maybe a goat who can provide a lot of meat for one death and also so much work to clean that chicken for so little meat). I mean that you assume that just because you put yourself into a very bad health state and needed a 100% vegan extremism to rectify that other extremism, it doesn't follow logically that extremism is the best balanced health ongoing. I would rather be scientific about it. I am not against the importance of raw leafy wild (unfarmed!) vegetables, but I am against unscientific extremism which doesn't mesh with indigenous experience. And I think unfarmed food sources may be a more important factor than extremism about avoiding diversity of food types.

Fact is that indigenous peoples are extremely healthy eating a balanced diet which includes some fats and animal products.

Rather it appears that the key distinction is they eat raw and naturally fed sources, no manufactured foods, and they get a good balance of probiotics naturally in their diet where it has been scientifically documented that they have 50% more diversity of gut microflora than we industrialized guinea pigs do. Also they are very physically active and exposed to the natural environment.

I tried eating all vegetables as I was ending my fasting. Granted these were lighted sauteed, not entire raw. And included some farmed vegetables. But I could not gain back my energy, muscle mass, sleep long enough, nor feel satiated for long enough time. I was also eating way too much fiber. I simply wasn't being cured and my health condition appeared to be getting worse in other ways (vision, teeth, exercise got worse, etc) although the headaches might have been slightly less (probably because there was less soluble food to leak from my apparently leaky gut).

I am willing to return to test an all raw wild vegan diet if the current experiment fails.

Austin, Texas.

Oregon.

Kansas City.

Santiago, Chile.

New Zealand.

Melbourne, Australia.

Vancouver, Canada.

Etc..


Not California!

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37603

Can't you fucking what I wrote. You are entirely wrong. Nothing has changed in his model of what is happening. Read again my post

You are guys are so fucking stupid.

If you haven't even tried to understand holistically, then why do you feel qualified to say anything? Of course you've just made an ass out of yourself in public showing that you are too lazy to do your homework.

What he is saying that the markets have apparently (still an "if") elected to turn down even more so into the 2015.75 turning point, so as to maximize this final peak in (the short end of the curve of) sovereign bonds and minimum interest rates so as to provide the fuel for a massive sling shot on the stampede of capital into the US dollar and US stocks hence. As I told you in my prior post, it is looking more and more like we have to wait until Spring for the contagion in the bond bubble to envelop and get a bottom on the private assets (with US dollar and US stocks transitioning to behave as private assets through 2017.9). I know someone who had a copy of this gold report from (was it early 2015 or late 2014?) and that clearly stated the bottom wasn't expected until Spring 2016. So it is not as if he hadn't already expected that timing.

Remember his point for the past years has been the coming bubble (stampede) into the US dollar and US stocks will not be based on economic fundamentals, but rather on the shift in international capital. So that fits perfectly with the Fed being given the excuse to delay raising interest rates, because the markets are also not ready to dump bonds and go to the US stocks. The markets will eventually get there as I explained in my prior post.

What kind of asinine statement is that about his entire theory being wash? It is falling into place entirely consistent with the major turning point of 2015.75 (for the final peak in sovereign bonds) and then the cascading contagion there after with a raging stampede into the US dollar and stocks to 2017.9.


It is not his fault if you are determined to confuse yourself and can't grasp the major theme which he has explained numerous times ad nauseum. You are too lazy to read his blog every day for the past 3 years nor to pay for his subscription services, therefor you don't have a clue about what you are thinking.

Wow raw goat's milk fresh (warm) from the goat's nipple to my glass jar in the ice filled ice chest!

The instant I drank that I knew that is what I needed! So very creamy and delicious, and amazingly great feeling in my digestion system. I slept 10 hours and woke up with incredible energy and absolutely no pain in my digestive system.

Well I can't be sure if this result was only due to the goat's milk, because I also ate fresh from the farm grass fed goat and native chicken yesterday also. Also I ate several cups of raw wild grown leafy vegetables.

I did not get sleepy and exhausted until 9pm. And I immediately felt the fat go into my buttocks and I awoken my skin tone and face looks so much healthier.

It is amazing to me that most of humanity is drinking that pasteurized shit and Holstein (A1 casein) poison cow's milk, and has no idea what raw grass fed milk tastes and feels like.

The grass fed meat is so very delicious. The native chicken tastes like wild game, and the taste is so much stronger than regular chicken. But the chicken didn't make me feel as good as when I ate the goat. The goat meat was not as strong tasting as beef and the texture was perfect. I would love to eat that goat meat a few times per week.

I am urging all of you with health issues to get raw goat's milk. I am sure you will find it delicious. I couldn't stop drinking it.

(so great to be able to drive again. We were all over Davao del Sur for 8 hours yesterday but only spent $10 of diesel fuel. $22 to fill up my 40 liter tank)

The price of the raw goat's milk here is 60 pesos (about $1.25) per liter. The price for a female goat is the range of $200 - $250. Imagine an animal which was never injected with antibiotics, deworming, etc. The goats roam freely in a big open area in a barn that has a raised wooden floor with slits that the feces falls through. When they are ready to milk then, all the baby goats go into a small corral and they know to do it when they are given the signal. They feed the goats the native grasses. They wipe the goat's nipple with bleach before milking and they cover the jar with a cheese cloth, so only the milk strains through.

Governments all around the world are typically against us obtaining raw milk.


And is it thousand year old A2 casein or one of those imflammation causing A1 casein Frankenstein breeds from the past century?

I read that all goats are A2 casein. And goat's milk has no lactose apparently. To me as best as I can remember, it tastes better than any cow's milk I ever drank.

You probably can't also get wild grown green leafy vegetables (e.g. chilis that grow in my front yard without any pesticides nor fertilizers) in Australia any more. Also I eat the leaves from the camote (sweet potato) tops, which are purple color. I eat the leaves without cooking them. Past few days doing this and feeling good.

Armstrong has stated numerous times the producers of the movie had to obtain fact liability insurance, meaning the attorneys verified that every claim in the movie is factural and will stand up to any test of the facts in a court of law.

Any more FUD?

Your view of healthy eating seems to be highly clouded by your extreme adverse reaction to any fat in your diet.

You completely discount the potential importance of enzymes. You assume the vegetables have all the cholesterol, enzymes, and other agents that might only be present in certain foods that are not vegetables.

Our ancestors were eating meat. They were not sedentary and not eating meat that wasn't wild (nor fed GMO, grains, antibiotics, and sedentary). I am not sedentary. I am running up to 4.5 kms per day now and that is very low for me historically. I need fat, cholesterol, creatine, etc..

Saturated fat is the best fat. It is not the polyunsaturated fats that comes from pressed seeds, the hydrogenated oils, the transfats, the GMO raised crap, sodium-nitrate laden bacon and sausages, etc..

I am not sure yet which foods I need, but I guarantee you that I would be a skeleton if I ate only vegetables. There is no way I could carry the muscle mass that enables me to be an athlete.

I think raw WILD (not farmed!) vegetables are very important for the micronutrients, the probiotics, and other aspects. But I doubt very much that cutting out all saturated fat is optimum healthy for an athlete. Bill Walton's career was plagued with bone injuries probably because he was 100% vegan.

You appear to be taking it too far into religion and no longer science.

Yesterday at the market I was about to buy a native chicken, but then I asked what it was fed and they said rice and grains. I said that is not native. And they replied, "oh you want the one from really in the mountain that eats only bugs". And I said yes!

In the Lisa Meats, I inquired from the guy who manages their farm and he said their cows are imported from Australia or New Zealand and eat corn mostly. I asked where can I get grass fed beef, and they said I need the native Brahman cow, but these were being phased out by most farmers because they bulk up less and the meat is very tough. I remembered eating that tough meat when I first arrived in the Philippines in the 1990s and I preferred it. I had a different very natural taste. And it was much cheaper too. I'll be on a mission later today to find Brahman cow meat.

The entire world is turning GMO and grains. It is really sad what is happening to the human race.

Did he tell you that? I had speculated up thread that would be the reason he isn't doing any predictions on Bitcoin.

And that is an ongoing effect. There will be another max exodus of best people and ingress of migrants with radically differing culture, with the hardcore socialists and neo-nazis remaining to fight it out.



P.S. I posted today on ion.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37591

---

Donald Trump: I would end ISIS forcefully. I think ISIS, what they did, was unbelievable what they did with James Foley and with the cutting off of heads of everybody, I mean these people are totally a disaster. Now, let me just say this, ISIS in Syria, Assad in Syria, Assad and ISIS are mortal enemies. We go in to fight ISIS. Why aren't we letting ISIS go and fight Assad and then we pick up the remnants? Why are we doing this? We're fighting ISIS and Assad has to be saying to himself, "They have the nicest or dumbest people that I've ever imagined."

Scott Pelley: Let me get this right, so we lay off ISIS for now?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, let --

Scott Pelley: Lay off in Syria, let them destroy Assad. And then we go in behind that?

Donald Trump: --that's what I would say. Yes, that's what I would say.

Or, he had another idea, leave it to an old adversary.

Donald Trump: If you look at Syria. Russia wants to get rid of ISIS. We want to get rid of ISIS. Maybe let Russia do it. Let 'em get rid of ISIS. What the hell do we care?

Is everyone still betting against my < $150 prediction for the final capitulation low. It is lonely being correct all the time.    (really I know I am not and I don't try to call every short-term move, but a liquidity contagion always takes down gold and small caps, ALWAYS  ... and remember the smaller the market cap, the more extreme the moves especially now that Bitcoin can be easily shorted)

Seriously though, gold and Bitcoin haven't capitulated yet, because there are still guys like you saying it can't. Once all of you are humbled, then the bottom will be in, I'll be buying with both fists (assuming I still have fists that move and any money which is also dubious) and many of you will have become dismayed and hesitant.

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. The contagion isn't even underway yet. Just wait grasshoppers for your lesson.

Gold is so much a smaller market cap thus it could easily see a 50% move up in a year (from an impending low < $850) without being in a phase transition (blow off peak) but if the dollar moves 50% you know we are near the end of its speculative bubble (2017.9).

Bitcoin will easily rise off its $100 lows (coming this Spring as the liquidity contagion hits) back up to the $200 or $300 level.

Gold will catch a bid along with US stocks because the rest of the world will be in such collapsing chaos. It won't take much capital moving into gold to reignite its bull market, because it is such a small market cap. Not everyone can buy the US stock market. Some abroad will buy gold and crypto instead. The bottom for gold and crypto should be some time between Spring and 2016.825. We are waiting for the burgeoning contagion to really bust out with a final peak in sovereign bonds.

Also generally speaking there will be much fewer assets to choose from, as most will be collapsing. This will focus attention on those small market cap assets with huge upside and correlated with the demand for things that do well when government is collapsing.

And even more so for Bitcoin and even more, more so for small market altcoins that have something unique to offer that is really necessary (if there are any).

On interest rates, the market has always been the one driving the rates but with the Central Banks being willing to prevent any defaults aiding the process. The move into ZIRP was aided by expecting more of the same, thus capital gains in spite of not receiving any yield.

We've got the situation now were everyone is moving to the short-end of the curve (short-term sovereign bonds), because it is very uncertain if the world's central banks can do another coordinated bailout with the debt default situation much worse now in Europe, Japan, China, Brazil, Australia, etc than it was in 2008.

Whereas, the US banks were recapitalized and are not facing this imminent menace.

So we've got a lopsided situation now where the USA does not have the political nor economic incentive to participate in a global bailout.

Thus as ZIRP reaches its zenith, there is nothing more to be made on capital gains there. Capital will ignite a US stock market frenzy and this will pull capital out of the bond markets thus accelerating the losses for those still holding them and making it clear that ZIRP is gone (at least for the time being).

Thus the free market will raise the rates and the Fed will have to follow or be irrelevant.

Will the governments get coordinated again for a massive bailout after 2017.9 when the US peaks on this dollar short covering ingress stampede? I don't think so because the rest of the world will have already collapsed so they don't have the incentive because the USA destroyed them and didn't help them, so why should they help the USA as it starts to roll over. Also the politics in the USA is turning radically against government. By 2017.9, it should be much further along.

We are headed into extreme chaos and financial upheaval. This is the free markets taking over. The Fed will become increasingly irrelevant over the years.

I am one of those who argued that other than an initial acceleration because it was new, Bitcoin had more or less correlated with gold with the short-term noise filtered out. I believe my posts on that are in klee's PnF thread.

But the entire point is dollar and the US stocks will shift to align with Private assets because of this unique situation where the dollar is the reserve currency and the $9 trillion of QE ended up as a bond carry trade abroad due to the effects of ZIRP incentivizing bond investors to seek yield abroad and the Western and China Central Banks essentially guaranteeing that emerging markets would not be allowed to go down by not allowing any defaults any where. Thus now there is this massive short position on the dollar which can't unwind without causing the dollar to appreciate which will in turn cause investors to want to hold US dollar denominated investments and thus will ignite a speculative frenzy into US stocks (because all other assets around the world are collapsing, Minsky Moment deflation is accelerating).

The BIG BANG is all about this massive phase shift. Evidence even China's Central Bank head has admitted in public that the bubble has burst and they can't stop it.

Gold will separate from commodities, because it will be seen as hedge against collapsing government. Commodities will tank because of deflation.

We've been waiting for this for a long time. Finally the distinction between gold as a commodity and gold as private money arrives. The problem for gold is that it is physical and the governments are very good at tracking physical things now, because cash is not very physical any more. Any significant value of transaction is rarely done with cash any more and this will become even more and more the case over the coming years.

Thus crypto... and that is why we are all here... and that is why I am happy to report I am having my 3rd consecutive day of good health. Hopefully we can get this coding running at full speed now. Fingers crossed.

Please read that post very carefully. No where does it say the slingshot move to 13000-14000 must come immediately after closing below those 16000ish benchmarks. It is a probabilistic prediction for price (not a certainty just an increase in probability), not for time. Innumerable times Armstrong has made the point that PRICE and TIME are independent in his model.

That event has raised the probability that we will visit those lows sometime before we blast off to new highs (i.e. bottom sometime between now and 2016.825), but it says nothing at all about what will happen tomorrow or the next day.

The computer is apparently picking up on a pattern that seems to be that all stock markets are going to make lows while this move to short-term sovereign bonds peaks after 2015.75. We are likely looking at Spring before the last vestiges of stampede into bonds has run its course and we are ready to stampede back into Private assets.

That move down doesn't have to be a straight line. Markets always inhale and exhale to maximize the pain for the most greater fools along the way.

That doesn't mean it is a certainty that we will have a stampede into short-term sovereign bonds (final peak in government) and a severe pullback on stocks, but the probabilities are pointing more strongly in that direction apparently. The computer is able to monitor many more patterns and incorporating much more data than we humans can. It can even extract order from chaos by correlating more disparate data and even order within dimensions of data that we don't normally consider.

Which is essentially what the Western nations do with visa-free travel policies.

But that doesn't gain us any momentum in terms of anarchist, Libertarian values and spreading those values around the world. Trump is talking about using our trump card (our economy) to force some changes throughout the world. Some of his details seem incorrect, but if he gets good advice, he might be on to something.