Norwich destined for the drop long ago, though actually they're still more likely to score through Pukki than through Raphinha at the moment when it comes to Leeds v Norwich. Leeds are brilliant on the attack but they've been cowering in their shells lately and losing Bielsa is a huge spiritual and psychological blow, unlike Norwich who seem to have gotten over losing Farke, who was their talismanic manager in recent Premier League campaigns.

Bamford I'd pick over Raphinha right now, but still, I hope one of us gets it!

And they are, unsurprisingly, the underdogs. Playing away and against a side eager to prove that they are not a shit team.

Both are impossible to predict but the odds make it so good to go on a Spurs win. I might even want to bump up a handicap for a great value bet. Will see how I do after Liverpool first though haha.

^ Yep, and whatever old arguments they might have been able to use in the past as justification for the ban are slowly losing credibility over time (one being that crypto was centralised and prone to manipulation but it's clear to anyone now Bitcoin is anything but, another being that Bitcoin is an energy-intensive industry but also they understand now that it's actually high-value in terms of security and finality).

Can't beat them, join them, you know. And I know they don't want to end up like others who've stubbornly tried to beat them.

Source please?

Not that I'm questioning it, seems perfectly reasonable, given that a scan through my own spending shows more than 50% of purchases are under the same relative value -- take out all the family groceries and bills (or divide them by the individuals in the family) and it adds up.

Which is why, I'm always wondering what kind of plans people like El Salvador president have for Bitcoin payments for microtransactions (not conveniently forgetting about Lightning).

And then, there's also that the dream of paying for coffee with Bitcoin isn't just a problem of means, it's also a problem of desire. Normies generally talking big on Bitcoin are holding, not spending.

Great start from Atletico, but for some reason their players have been absolutely reckless. Carrasco getting a shit yellow for cursing at the ref, and then Reinildo went for a full-blooded 2-foot challenge... at the halfway line. Should have been sent off actually, but VAR weirdly downgraded ref's decision. Really lucky, they're actually doing ok, don't know why the nonsensical fouls. I know that's their style but even Simeone's yelling at his players to calm down haha.

My prediction already out of contention for exact at HT.

Hey Boris, I remember you

Statistically, I agree with the idea that betting on same probability outcomes but with higher than expected returns is profitable in the long run, but I think the strategy you suggest can't be in any way labelled as arbitrage since by definition, arbitrage means betting on both sides of the same market.

Again, I'm not going to get into an argument, but when I am value-betting for picks, I always choose what I believe is good value (and statistics usually back my pick). I translate simple odds into statistics (not scientific but there you go). For example, 10/1 should translate into 10% wins but if the stats show they actually win more than 10% of the time on those odds, then you have good value.

So I keep betting on those types of games, on my picks threads, but I'm not sure I'd call that arbitrage?

Yeah, as I mentioned above, odds on Copenhagen were 7/1, which I took. So yeah, of course this was an upset, but as I pointed out above, the form of both teams suggested some happy times for betting. Alas, just the draw, though I doubt any bookie would pay more than 100/1 for an exact score prediction like this.

So painful to concede equalisers so many times, 4-4, and then to get the last equaliser, but there you go.

^ Saints deserved a point at least, judging from the stats against Toon Army. They're one of the form teams too, and as long as they smack Watford early hard and fast, ex-gf shouldn't have a chance. I mean, they just conceded four to WOLVES of all teams.

Shame about the winners not being able to attend, but that only delays the gratification (more beers guys!). Catch you at Clubtalk, can't let Gav have all the air time.


I tried it out I think 2 weeks ago? Can't remember the game but I think it was Champions League also. Nice half time boost, played a few rounds of Blackjack, turned out to be quite a good few hands. Received the 10% boost later (pops out as a claim on Live Casino). Can't get too many hands in 15 minutes though, but this 10% boost actually defeats the house edge on BJ

Weird thing last night is that Pukki, Jimenez, Coutinho all scored -- and it's technically still in the same Match Day round as our next picks are for following games. All 3 are also on my picks for the next round, so I'm not wondering if it's too much to ask them to score again -- it would be a third game running for Pukki if he does and that does seem to be pushing my luck!

Leeds looked utterly lost and broken last night, I love Raphinha too and he's always in my picks but I wouldn't be backing him -- Bamford, however, is back from injury and looked the most likely last night to score even with only a cameo!

Copenhagen still has the lead after PSV equalised so my big bet for the night is alive yay! Rangers aren't the same team they were with Gerrard, but yeah, I still see them as one of the favourites in Conference (and they were pretty strong in Europa too last season). That Morelos guy loves scoring!


Ordinarily I'd go for Leicester too but they and Spurs have been incredibly banal in European competition. Tell you what, though, is Bodoe/Glimt going to go all the way? I mean, smacking Celtic both legs, denying Kiev, humiliating Roma, and now leading a Dutch team at half time. Who are these guys?! Haha

^ Was talking on another channel and I also feel the sanctions action on Chelsea are -- racist and unfair. I've never been a Chelski lover but the other measures -- contracting etc. whatever happened to "spirit of the law"? And we've seen clubs get a slap on the hand for financial fraud. But this is almost forcing Chelsea to seppuku especially with player contracts, restricting their travel expenses. Ticketing (only season ticket holders can attend games)?? Course, I know I'm just reading from sources and I'm sure these aren't set in stone but I hope the FA step in and apply all kinds of special measures.

Anyway.

All my picks looking healthy at half time. Watching the Villa game and I'm really enjoying what I see. Backed them last game and this one -- both as slight underdogs, which Gerrard probably relishes. The little magician's finding a good home.

Good luck to you and Partizan, casper... Feyenoord are stronger this season than they have been in the years following their title, but I'm backing another Dutch team to lose tonight (Eindhoven). Copenhagen aren't exactly lighting up the world with their brand of football BUT they have not lost a single game since October and at 7/1 to win against Eindhoven, (who I will remember got smashed by Sociedad) that's a bet I take all day. Only managed to get 6.6 but I thought it'd actually get worse. Oh well.

Go København!


You can refer to the first and second posts for some background information I was just as confused too and yes, it's like a silly league at the moment but the prize money is actually comparable to Europa League so it makes for very interesting competition IMO.

I know I should probably take the pick of tonight as Sevilla Hammers but personally I'd like to try and find a good stream of Atalanta-Leverkusen... though knowing my luck I'll end up only finding one of the Prem League games.

Not going to risk betting on Galatasaray as I normally would, Barca's simply irresistible these days... odds went down all day on the Turks: 23/1 this morning and only 16/1 now!

I remember this jewellery law very well. Hard to imagine sophisticated, progressive countries using the logic that "hey, if you're carrying valuables then it must be used to pay for the cost to give you refuge" but hey, maybe I'm super conservative. And you're right, with Bitcoin, you no longer need to swallow diamonds or eat gold sand to later sieve from your poop. Though I wouldn't be surprised if there's already tech looking into identifying electronic access from refugees. I've seen the emerging tech on trial in the EU like iBorderControl... detecting lies in your facial expressions. Some of it's way out there.

I'm not a tinfoil hatter but even I warn my kids that no matter where they live, no matter how nice and cosy it all seems, the government will turn on you if it works for them. And not because every government is malignant, it simply is a matter of you being in the way of things.

Hate to feed the shitposters but nothing proves anything except that anything can happen in Bitcoin. And as much as I like green candles as much as anyone, I always feel it's always likelier to drop than to rise. Fact that Bitcoin spends the majority of its time coming down and not climbing up actually "proves" this.

Still, remind me of how right you are if/when we get 3 ATHs over the next 9 months.

^^^You guys seem to have read my mind, as I was coming here to say all those things. I made a 6-leg ambitious acca yesterday with Real on my first leg, was the only bet I made, so am happy.

I only watched 2nd half of the game last night and in bits and pieces, but very lucky to see Benzema get his team back on the QF where they belong. That guy, when even not fully fit, forget him as a person and understand him as a player hungry to prove himself, and you know they're built for Champions League. Plus, Modric definitely the man who also deserves the plaudits (as usual).

PSG have always been pretenders, they're the biggest team I hate to watch because of that simple lack of spirit and UCL ingredient I have trouble trying to understand myself. Mbappe's the only one playing to that tune and yes, he belongs at Real. The fans want it. He wants it. Done deal. I'm absolutely happy they're no longer in the competition. Poch doesn't want to stay. I guess United was the second-happiest team last night as I think now that's the natural next place for him to return to.

Can't wait for next Friday, when we know all the draws. I believe we will get a proper CL last 8, even if arguably, the next 4 to join are on the "weaker" half:
City*
Real
Bayern*
Liverpool
Chelsea
Juve
Ajax*
Atletico*

Have to admit, I'm absolutely stumped about betting on tonight's biggest game. Last leg, was fairly easy for me -- 4/1 odds on Real Madrid was always something special to do, but tonight bookies are more or less evenly spread. Real are a powerhouse at home (never mind they need to win) and PSG are Jekyll and Hyde with awful domestic form.

Messi to turn on Champions League magic though? Mbappe was irresistible, but Benzema is far fitter than he was now. So goals galore please.

Now I definitely know I've been losing enough now that I actually recognise all three names here (and not Pereira's)!
 
Sorry to muscle in on the action, brother, but can I take a pop at this with rdbase at 15/1?

#justkiddingnotreally