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Yes that's right. The martingale strategy only makes sense if you have a large supply of money (or better yet, an unlimited supply of funds).
However, in practice this is not possible. The successful application of the martingale strategy is described in one of Boris Akunin's novels about the adventures of the private detective Fandorin. One of the main characters, a cold-blooded killer, constantly used this game system in Swiss casinos and always won.
But this literary hero had incredible endurance and composure. He was very rich and had an unlimited supply of money to bet on.
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In my opinion, the current economic crisis will last another 1.5 years.
Currently, we see an increase in inflationary processes in the US and Western Europe. We have a recession and stagflation ahead of us. The US Federal Reserve will gradually raise discount rates (refinancing rates) up to 4 percent. This is the factor limiting Bitcoin's upside potential. At the same time, after some time, the world economy will come to an equilibrium state.
From 2024, a new period of economic growth will begin.
I expect the price of Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 in 2024.
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Недавно снова слушал видеокаст Андрея Мовчана. Мне импонирует его взвешенный и очень сбалансированный подход к анализу экономических процессов.
При этом он биткоиноскептик.
Кто из присутствующих не купил недавно Биткоин ? - спросила его собеседница. Ну не будем стыдить людей - ответствован Мовчан.
Ну тут можно предположить, что многие серьезные дядьки, как заправские хомяки закупились на хаях.
И сейчас они вероятно больше покупать не будут, а наоборот - поддержат идею о бессмысленности Биткоина.
Но это мы слышали многократно. Лысые хомяки это основа будущего буллрана.
Тут же главный вопрос - полезна ли в сложившейся мировой ситуации такая общечеловеческая децентрализованная мировая валюта, как Биткоин? Она важна?
А про кризис, рецессию, стагфляцию и т.д. Мовчан толково рассказал.
И про то что ставки придут к 4 процентам (а они пока далеки от этого).
Назвал он и сроки нового подьема - через 1.5 года, т.е. в начале 2024 года.
Тогда и двинемся к новому ATH в район 300 000 $ (хотя Мовчан может в это и не верит).
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Bitcoins can be used to replenish deposits in online casinos, if there is confidence in the absence of a sharp increase in the price of the first cryptocurrency in the near future.
Will bitcoin rise in the near future?
In my opinion, local growth is possible (for example, price movement to $28,000).
A more serious increase in the price of bitcoin is possible only if the policy of raising discount rates (refinancing rate) of the Fed is terminated. So far, we see no signs of the Fed's intention to stop raising rates. It is likely that rates will be gradually raised to 4 percent (possibly with periodic stops to analyze the effectiveness of the ongoing monetary policy).
Therefore, in my opinion, at present, replenishing a deposit in an online casino in Bitcoin is an adequate and rational action.
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Gambling can be genetic and passed on to offspring, but I have noticed that females are not addicted as male when it comes to gambling and that gives me doubt about it, or maybe that is how it is in my region, men are most into gambling. Or maybe the gene is more concentrated in men than women.
No one can blame addicts, but any bad deeds done by them can be punished. The more fact we need is that addiction is not good, it can lead to a kind of life someone do not wish for himself, the reason we should use just the amount of money we can afford to lose and nothing more than that.
Women are inherently less risk averse. Women are the keepers of the most valuable and well-established useful qualities necessary for the survival of the human race. Men are by nature explorers and experimenters. There are many morons among men, but also many geniuses. In essence, the male is an experimental laboratory for testing various life strategies that may be useful for the survival of the human population. The propensity to gamble and risk, as a quality of character, can also be a useful quality in terms of evolution. |
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In my opinion, there can be many good reasons for a player to opt out of the KYC procedure.
Anonymity and confidentiality are the core values of a crypto enthusiast.
These values were important to Satoshi Nakamoto and others who were at the forefront of Bitcoin. They are important to all of us.
The KYC procedure carries a great danger for the player. Confidential data can get into the dark web and be used by criminals for illegal purposes. For example, data obtained as part of the KYC procedure can be used to apply for a loan or loan, as registration data for illegal and criminal actions.
Therefore, I avoid online casinos that require mandatory KYC.
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True life Story.
A friend i know recently narrated to me how his business almost collapsed due to trust he had for another of his friends who he thought he was helping by recruiting him to manage one of his Retail outlets. He narrated how having put him in charge of that point started observing a decrease in the the profit from there intended for savings and reinvestment. He confronted him severally to know what the problem was, but his friend attributed it to being ill and needing drugs, until one faithful day when he ran into him in a betting shop during working hours betting on virtual football games, how disappointing!
Questions for discussion
- Are gamblers eligible to hold financial positions?
- Do problem gamblers deserve a second chance to hold a financial position?
The player should never be trusted with financial management. One day I met a financial director (female). She gave the impression of an adequate person and a highly qualified specialist. But suddenly she winked at me and said that she was very worried about the growth of her company's wealth. Standard tools for working with finances do not allow you to get a sufficiently large profit. Therefore, she invests part of the money in network marketing. She was convinced that financial management required creativity. But in fact, creative and gambling people should not be allowed to manage finances. Maybe after losing the company's money in network marketing, she will play roulette to win back... I don't know... I feel sorry for the owner and CEO of her company. |
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Slots are also called “one-armed bandits”.
Typically, slot machines (slots) are installed in places with the highest traffic of people.
This allows you to involve the maximum number of people in the game.
I know cases when slots were installed directly in grocery stores. Retired grandmothers went to the grocery store, but could not resist the temptation to play slot machines. In doing so, they lost their entire cash pension. And they had nothing to buy groceries and household items. Usually the slots are brightly colored and make pleasant sounds. They create the atmosphere of a festive fair.
Slots are created by experienced psychologists and designers.
Therefore, in terms of such indicators as profitability, slots are in the lead.
I absolutely agree with you. Remembering the time when I could visit land-based casinos I can say that it was difficult to pass by the slots as there was always a cheerful and noisy atmosphere, which obviously can not be said on the location where the poker or roulette were placed. In my opinion, slots is one of the most vibrant and emotional gambling games, so it attracts users. At least for me it is one of the games of chance from which I get a real pleasure in the game. The slots are designed by very experienced psychologists. Outwardly, slots look like soda machines, rides, carousels, etc. They are brightly colored and make pleasant sounds. There is a feeling that a cheerful clown sits in each slot and entertains you. These are all pictures from childhood, when everything was simple and fun. This is another reminder that gambling is not about making money, but about having fun. And slots create an atmosphere of childhood and joy. That is why gamblers are very fond of playing slots (slot machines). The popularity of slots is much higher than the popularity of table games (roulette, poker and dice). |
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В США вот открыли центр по добыче Биткоина от солнечной энергии. То есть индустрия развивается.
В раздробленном мире с грядущей сегментацией финансовых систем очень важна децентрализованнаямировая финансовая система (общечеловеческого значения).
Поэтому за Bitcoin я спокоен. Еще глава Риппла чего то жалуется на SEC. А когда он жалуется? Он жалуется обычно, когда Биткоину дают преимущества в регулировании. То есть никто Биткоин не хоронит.
Я думаю можно выдохнуть - дно мы прошли. Биткоин теперь будет расти.
Достигнем ли мы сейчас нового ATH? Думаю об этом рано еще говорить, но от 20 000 $ будем подрастать к 30 000 $ (нам надо быть там).
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Кстати, Arkane придерживаются такой же версии и готовятся к погружению битка на 85%, до 10 350$, это и должно быть абсолютно дно:
Всё возможно в этом безумном мире, но в 10К слабо верится... Уровень приблизительно 14К - пик 2019-го года... Если его пробиваем вниз, то многие сценарии инвалидизируются... Я даже не знаю в какую схему это натянуть. По моей текущей разметке во всяком случае, мы перерисовали треуг в 4 волне в расширенную плоскость. Сейчас рисуем последние 2 волны её. Падение на 85%, как по мне, надо отсчитывать от законченного "туземуна", а он, похоже, ещё не закончился на недельных свечках. После его окончания - да, возможно, погружение на 85% от пика. ---- Но так-то я ввиду большой корреляции с фондой стал ориентироваться на СнП. Там большое падение действительно намечается , хотя практически половина уже пройдена). Но вот прямо сейчас напрашивается неплохой такой отскок. Гэпы позакрывать, волны гармонизировать и т.д. Да, я думаю мы от 20 000 $ оттолкнемся и ниже не пойдем. А от 20 000 $ пойдем к 30 000 $. Сейчас очень много всяких катастрофических прогнозов пишут и про 10 000 $ и про 8 000 $, про 14 000 $ и про 17 000 $. Однако если подумать, то падение с 69 000 $ до ниже 20 000 $ это и так очень большое падение. Справедливая стоимость Биткоина уж точно не ниже 30 000 $ и особых оснований находиться глубже 20 000 $ нет. Похоже на 20 000 $ с копейками как раз и флетим, собственно это событие уже и предсказывалось (например, Ратимовым), что будем еще 20 000 $ тестировать сверху. А идти ниже смысла особого нет. Там все проторговано и вообще вызывает ассоциации с 2018 годом, а эта страница истории уже перевернута. Поэтому скорее вверх, чем вниз. Ну и флет на 20 000 $ с копейками, чтобы кому нужно набрал позицию. А набор позиции будет конечно сопровождаться информационными вбросами про 10 000 $ и т.д. Чтобы запугать хомяков. |
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Slots are also called “one-armed bandits”.
Typically, slot machines (slots) are installed in places with the highest traffic of people.
This allows you to involve the maximum number of people in the game.
I know cases when slots were installed directly in grocery stores. Retired grandmothers went to the grocery store, but could not resist the temptation to play slot machines. In doing so, they lost their entire cash pension. And they had nothing to buy groceries and household items. Usually the slots are brightly colored and make pleasant sounds. They create the atmosphere of a festive fair.
Slots are created by experienced psychologists and designers.
Therefore, in terms of such indicators as profitability, slots are in the lead.
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If the price of Bitcoin is falling sharply, as has been the case in recent weeks, there is a group of people who see it as a loss. And what do you want to do if you have made a loss? Win back the loss as soon as possible, of course. And then, as a result, you could gamble to see if you can win it back. So indirectly, the fall in the bitcoin price could have major consequences for gamblers. But also for gambling sites that see the assets dwindle.
In my opinion, if a person has suffered large losses as a result of the collapse of the crypto market and the fall in the price of bitcoin, then this will force him to reconsider his financial strategy. Especially if he kept most of his capital in the form of Bitcoins.... In such a situation, it is advisable to enter the mode of maximum savings. It is possible that a person will carefully analyze their spending structure. At the same time, spending on vital goods (food, clothing, housing rent and utilities) will be a priority. At the same time, spending on entertainment (including gambling) can be cut. |
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I don't really understand why transgender women are trying to join sports competitions that are made for women. I mean, they have the physical body of a man that has been altered to be a woman however the difference in physical strength is a lot.
Anyways, yes, I would definitely bet on these kinds of events as it might be more fun to see them in action rather than on plain gender events. However, I don't think that there will be a huge market for these events as the only main difference is their gender but still, there's a chance that at least one sports event will have a good market for transgender people.
The creation of separate sports competitions for transgender people may entail reform of the entire sports industry. Modern sports allow the use of swimsuits made of innovative synthetic materials that allow you to swim faster than if the athlete was completely naked. However, doping is prohibited.... You can improve sports equipment, but you cannot improve athletes' bodies. In the future, it is possible that in sports it will be allowed to improve the body of athletes by various methods - with the help of biochips, with the help of genetic engineering, with the help of modern pharmacology, etc. At the same time, the ban on the cardinal transformation of the bodies of athletes will be lifted. |
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...
И чтобы это замещать нужно строить АЭС, танкеры, закладывать где нибудь в Аргентине новые поля под пшеницу и кукурузу и т.д. И знающий инвестор на этом может хорошо заработать. В этих новых проектах.
А откуда он возьмет себе депозит на эти новые инвестициии? А вот Биткоин, Эфир и Солану он и продаст ....
...
Это разные типы инвесторов: те, кто играет ценными бумагами и криптоактивами могут, конечно, поучаствовать и в подобных трендах, но через те же покупки-продажи профильных ценных бумаг, а вовсе не на разворачивании новых производств. И наоборот: специалисты в прикладных инвестициях обычно не лезут в спекуляции, а занимаются развитием активов. Разный тип мышления. Так что не думаю, что из эфира кто-то перекладывается в новые поля в Аргентине сколь-нибудь заметно для рынка. Ну я вот написал вначале поста - институционалы пришли в крипту. Мне кажется это важно и принципиально. А они играют глобально. Для них весь мир это игровой стол. И вынуть деньги из Биткоина, чтобы купить к примеру фьючерсы на пшеницу для них обычное дело ... Тем более и Биткоины у них не на леджере, а к примеру в форме деривативов (что не отменяет влияние на цену). Я уже не говорю что такой подход (когда не ограничиваешься криптоотраслью, а наблюдаешь за всем) позволяет мыслить гораздо более масштабно. И видеть все с высоты так сказать птичьего полета. И тренды предвидеть. И наступление медвежьего или бычьего рынка - все проще. Все же связано со всем. |
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Damn, honestly, I don't know what you are talking about until I read the link you provided.
So this is being superstitious (more like) in gambling which I don't really do.
I believe in my skills and my strategy is very simple, and that is betting against the Public, way more effective than anything.
Anyway, thanks for educating me about that kind of technique, I'm now aware about it.
Yes, sports betting against crowd expectation is the most optimal gaming strategy. Using this gaming strategy gives a probability of winning more than 50 percent. This is due to the fact that among the sporting events on which you bet there are most likely fixed (fictitious) matches. The result of contractual (fictitious) matches was originally planned in such a way as to significantly differ from the crowd's expectations. This increases the chance of winning your sports bets. At the same time, if you can provide a probability of winning more than 50 percent, then you are a consistently successful player. |
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Самая главная метрика - реализованный убыток. Это прямой показатель выхода из позиции хуже цены входа. Остальное интересно как дополнение. Для меня в этом выпуске было удивительно, что почти 200 000 биткоинов от долгосрочных холдеров, с живучестью монет 1год+, были слиты, пролив битка до $17 600 заставил сливать даже сильные руки. Мне вот интересно, чем руководствовались эти инвесторы, которые холдили не один год монеты и вдруг решили, считай на самом дне, их слить в убыток?  Я понимаю майнеров, им нужно покрывать расходы, но холдеру то чего, держи дальше и жди отскока, который когда-то всё равно произойдет. Де-левереджинг случился и рынок стряхнул с себя большую часть кредитных позиций, кстати точно такое же событие было и в прошлом году, и после де-левереджинга начался рост рынка. Ну во-первых, в крипте сейчас очень много институционалов. А они не идейные от слова совсем. Сейчас много где можно получить хорошую прибыль (а настоящий капиталист / инвестор ради нормы прибыли сами знаете, что готов сделать по Марксу). Россия и Украина это контроль над очень большим количеством природных ресурсов и продовольствия, которые сейчас фактически ограничены для остального мира. И чтобы это замещать нужно строить АЭС, танкеры, закладывать где нибудь в Аргентине новые поля под пшеницу и кукурузу и т.д. И знающий инвестор на этом может хорошо заработать. В этих новых проектах. А откуда он возьмет себе депозит на эти новые инвестициии? А вот Биткоин, Эфир и Солану он и продаст .... Ну и ставки теоретически можно повышать очень долго. Может сейчас начался длительный цикл роста цен на сырье и продовольствие. И ставки годами будут повышать. Кто знает. И когда Биткоин отрастет обратно к 70 000 $ непонятно. Может к халвингу отрастет, а может и нет. И каждый раз его рост все меньше кстати. Отяжелел Дед. Разжирел... Популярен стал. |
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~
exactly Oshosondy probably the only application of stop loss and take profit on a gambling related scenario would be prediction markets like these futures for elections on ftx or something like that but still this is much more like trading than like gambling.That is so because trading is gambling in a way. You can never be sure about the outcome, you only have probabilities. People who don't understand it, lose a lot in trading. And gamblers that think, I know how to make a bit of money, right? I bet $1k with 98% win chance on dice, and I win 10 bucks easily, right? It's a guaranteed $10 profit, I'll buy myself a beer. And yeah, it works, but only with 98% certainty. And one day ... I mean, it's inevitable, it can happen right away, but it will surely happen one day, and you will lose one thousand USD at once, after risking it for potentially gaining 10 bucks. When comparing trading and gambling, an important thing to consider is time. In spot trading, you can sit out a bearish cycle and close a trade at no loss or make a profit. In gambling time is always against you because every game has strictly defined limits. In addition, the increase in the number of games leads to a loss because in the long run the casino has an advantage over the player. Yes, gambling is both similar and different from trading. Gambling is a bit like trading with leverage (for example, lowering a certain cryptocurrency). When trading with leverage, luck is very important for you (correct assessment of the cryptocurrency price movement trend). The time factor is also of great importance... It is because of this that I have never traded with leverage and never traded short. It's too much like gambling.... It is better to just play roulette or dice. To win or make a profit, you need to have a competitive advantage over other players. What is your competitive advantage? This is the key question. |
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We all know that Macau is the world's biggest gambling capital the world and its government is relying 80% on its revenues from casino operations as the majority of its citizen are employed directly or not directly but now it is facing a dilemma there is a rapid increase of the outbreak of the disease and they have no choice but to close most shops, banks schools, and government offices but surprisingly their casino operations are still open as they need to cope with the revenues losses and keep the money flowing to keep the government funds stable. Do you think the government of Macau made the right decision or they are very desperate not to shut down the casino operations because they need their economy going. Related story and source here Macao shuts most businesses, restaurants amid mass COVID-19 testing; casinos stay open Perhaps the Macau government believes that gambling increases human immunity and resistance to disease. However, it is not .... Coronavirus Covid - 19 is a very serious disease. It is spread by airborne droplets. Medical masks help prevent infection, but are not a panacea. The main way to stop an epidemic is to avoid crowds. It is very easy to get coronavirus in offline casinos. Therefore, in my opinion, the Macau authorities should actively encourage the creation of online casinos. Online casinos are safe from the point of view of the possibility of infection with coronavirus. |
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До 14к краткосрочно должен сходить, затем флето-консолидация совмещенная с коррекцией в узком ценовом коридоре - месяца на 2 или 3..  До 14 000 $ это конечно жесть .... Но очень возможно, что так и будет. Так то сердце хомяка конечно радуется краткосрочному отскоку от 20 000 $ вверх. Создается иллюзия, что ситуация выравнивается. Хотя как она выравнивается, если раньше было 70 000 $, все 100 000 $ ждали с лазерными глазами, а сейчас 20 000 $ (условно). Ну и флет конечно тоже нужен, потому что киты должны добирать позиции, сейчас этот отскок думаю он не на китах. Киты что-то такое сказали ободряющие, хомяки встрепенулись. Тащат цену в сторону 25 000 $, но было то 70 000 $, а не 25 000 $ ! И когда все это осознается, что было 70 000 $, а сейчас и до 25 000 $ не можем дотянуться, то тогда силенки хомяков рухнут и цены, как вы и пишите вполне может дойти до 14 000 $. Не хотелось конечно бы этого, но может. Ситуация в мире затягивается, новых факторов "повышения виртуальности" нашего мира, да еще и летом не наблюдается. P.S. Ну и третьего индейца думаю не будет. Будет второй мертвый ковбой. |
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There is such a psychological feature of the human psyche - a person experiences more negative experiences from losing than joy from winning.
In gambling, losses and winnings are distributed approximately equally (50/50). In this case, the player experiences more negative emotions. This can lead to nervous breakdowns and depression. In particular, a person may begin to suffer from insomnia. He may be haunted by disturbing thoughts about past gambling.
All of the above applies to beginners (experienced and professional players adapt to this feature of the human psyche).
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