Well, then.  Go for it.

Consider suing Bloomberg News for tortious libel, causing grevious loss of substance.  A class action suit, anyone?

Yes.

I can understand why this might seem rational, on the basis of priors carried over from other assets, but you should please recall BTC 2013.  It is unlikely that this will repeat, right here, right now, but if it does while you are short, your account will be liquidated and you will have to start over.  Maybe take a smallish short, with a tight stop, so you don't get ruined?  Unless you have very high confidence probability estimates, you can't really calibrate your leverage-space (Kelly in a levered context) optimum position size, so there are significant unknowns involved, of both known and unknown varieties.

Given the upside asymmetry of Monero, if you must trade, I recommend varying your position size between, say, 0.5 and 1.0 of your Monero-allocated capital.  If you are out-performing buy-and-hold after a few months, then you might consider increasing your leverage range.

wake me up when there's a lower low.  until then the trend hasn't reversed.  stalled yes.  reversed, no.

If so, it is because of language differences.  It is perfectly clear in my mind.

You are focusing on the words, not the underlying facts and causes.  Please rescan the part that isn't gibberish to you.  Then your critique may be on-point.

I think a week ago, the bitwa.la news would have leveled us up 20% in a matter of hours.  Today... Meh.  Whatever.  Long term, though it is bigger than DNM news.  We will outgrow DNM dependency quickly - much, much more quickly than did bitcoin.

Draw the lines where you will. As a dictum it is not semantically objective.  The point is that early recipients of information are advantaged relative to late ones.  Most of the people who may buy Monero on this news haven't learned of it yet, as witness all the folks wandering into Monero threads  asking what is going on - and these are the ones connected enough to be posting on BTT!

Estimating where we are on that diffusion curve, and what are the delays in the resulting cash flows, is not trivial, but:  I think the disillusionment of the unrealistically optimistic buyers doesn't kick in until traffic numbers come in.  Until they have facts in which to find disappointment, they can blithely hold in expectation of their future gain.

I think we are with 6 hours now of a new ATH.  Maybe 8. It is way slower now, certainly.  Most of the net flow due to the news has already occurred, but it is still net positive flow.  When it becomes net negative, price will go down, and I consider 012 to be first major support right now, although our current level may become first major support, if we level up again.


However if I am wrong, I definitely am not committing to do a Godiva ride on the subway.

Wow, so much pitty-pat.

Bitwa.la monero support! Yes!  Now anyone in Europe - at least - do they allow North American customers?  I will try to sign up - can buy sell spend or accept monero online and in shops.  That is truly huge, and previously a point of disadvantage, now removed.  Of course those and are tracked, but it is still a huge boost for privacy so long as you control the interfaces, and can connect directly to foreign addresses.  A month from now, that may be the dominant fiat exchange interface.

I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.

Longer term, I expect more exchanges to support Monero, and both fiat and crypto will be flowing in to actually use the stuff, on a scale of weeks and months.   In as little as 3 years, in an optimistic but feasible case,  Monero has a chance to be the dominant cryptocurrency world-wide, in which case the price should exceed bitcoin significantly.  "Optimistic but feasible" means probability between 0.1 and 10%.  My SWAG estimate is 2%.  Bitcoin pioneered this path, and it is easier to follow now. 

Which is precisely what a short seller would be doing.  If that really was his break-even line or better, it worked.

[Quoted for preciousness, although the "Brand new" label won't last.]

That being the case, well done. You might like to double-up now, to fulfill your destiny, Mr. Shortypants.  It's rinse, repeat until sept 1, by priors.

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.  It's just crazy stupid to try to front-run "sell the news" 3 days too soon.  The punters haven't had a chance to buy the rumor yet.

Anon136 is a stalwart friend to all manner of meritorious crypto innovation.  I suspect he is trying to save the world as well, in a sense, but would expect him to deny it.

If I cared about privacy I would not use cryptographic software implemented by former IDF, paid by the Israeli government.  The likelihood that these people are SIGINT operatives is overwhelming.  It's like accepting NSA-coin as your privacy cover.

Is it even remotely reasonable to trust the supply of ZCash?  The incentives to subvert this are potentially astronomical, and the act itself will be undetectable,  until the hyperinflation sets in.

The last time I reviewed their proposal and code, the sheer size of the proofs rendered the system incapable of scaling to any significant usage traffic.  Has that been fixed?

And even if none of those problems existed, the underlying mathematics has not seen the decades of peer review that cryptonote's algorithms have enjoyed.  The trust factor just isn't there.

The 160btc sell wall at 016 is clear evidence of a big short protecting himself.  There's just no other reason to overwhelm a rising tide with a totem of fear.

That is bullish, of course, for the long-run (which is pretty darn short in this environment), since he has to cover, in competition with longs.  If he gets squeezed, and I think he will, it will almost certainly be a new ATH, and might be the top for a few weeks.

It doesn't make much sense to me that the Sept. 1 AB event would get sold a full 2 days ahead.  The ramp really should continue up until Tuesday night.  If the buyers keep pressuring the short, and the ask book is thin enough so that he can't cover, and he hangs on hopefully until Tuesday, we might surpass LTC mcap for a while during a squeeze.  Otherwise, I would be surprised (again) to do so.

Pattern hasn't really broken yet.  If it continues, we'll see a new ATH in about 12 hours.

Trend seems to be leading to a new ATH in 1-4 hours -- if not, then we might see some dumps when it breaks the lower rising support line.  Get your BTC ready.

At the time we lacked a precedent.  Bitcoin established a precedent that crypto can appreciate to a 10bn usd mcap.  Thus, investors are not so naive any more, as they were then.

Some of us have been predicting this for years. Clearly we had a model which had some predictive value. Yes it was hard to maintain faith with that model when the price plummeted in nominal Bitcoin terms from the mintpal pump out to the January 2015 lows. However I at least was buying at those lows.

I don't think any fiat to speak of has come into Monero yet. Some has, but it is negligible. The overwhelming bulk of Monero purchased has consisted of conversion of Bitcoin into Monero. Bitcoin derived from selling Monero in part was reserved and in part sold by the Monero miners to pay their expenses and derive a cash profit. The Net cash flow into and out of crypto has probably been outward as a result of the Monero phenomenon to date. That is going to change very soon. Very very soon.

While there are many strong and cogent analogies between the evolution of Monero and that of Bitcoin it is important not to apply those lessons in areas where they are not applicable. So far the lack of direct exchange to fiat has created a substantially different dynamic which has kept the price of Monero much lower than it will be in future, when it becomes easier to go from Monero to fiat and back without a btc intermediation.

Except RangeDriver, of course.

Agreed.  And the dumbers will dumb it down about 30%.  Then the markets will wise up.

I give it 50/50 that the next level is higher or lower.  If higher 0.0175 area.  If lower, a jagged 30% down, and back to a support around ,012 again.  A few hours to base then.

0175 is $10 and likely to be psychological resistance.