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501  Other / Off-topic / Re: Do you really earn more money because you went to college? on: July 24, 2014, 03:17:55 PM
The big problem back 30 years ago was going to College gave you a leg up on another person, it wasn't mandatory but it definitely helped you out!

Nowadays by not going to College it actually hurts you because so many other people are going to college....so yes even a job managing a Mcdonalds may be a college grad vs someone who isn't, and they will go with the College graduate most of the time...

Very true.  At least in some disciplines, a bachelor's is the new high school diploma, and a master's is the new bachelor's.

The problem is you might have to spend about $100,000 and above for a degree unless you get scholarship. The $100,000 can make good money from business or investment.

This doesn't have to be true.  If you go to one of your state's public universities, you'll probably pay no more than half of that for tuition.  If you need to cut costs further, you could go to a community college for the first two years and then transfer.  Community college shouldn't cost you more than a few thousand a year for tuition.
502  Economy / Economics / Re: could decentralized exchanger revolutionize bitcoin? on: July 24, 2014, 03:03:16 PM
How halo works?
If I have understood correctly:
You want to sell, someone will buy.
Both give BTC to escrow more than transaktion is worth
Halo deposit Works like ensurance,  no one will fuck you, cause both sides looses if Transaktion will fail.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oS56CqCR-oU

What if something wrong happen ?

What if one disagree ?

What if the buyer claim that he never received the package ?

Good point.  They don't go into that.  I would guess that both parties would have to agree to cancel the transaction, otherwise the funds would continue to be held.
503  Other / Off-topic / Re: Do you sometimes wish internet was never invented? Wouldn't your life be better? on: July 24, 2014, 02:55:48 PM
I spend on average 12-14 hrs online 7 days a week. If there were no internet I'd be playing/walking/daydreaming in the woods all day long  Cheesy
I love the internet and everything but I wouldn't miss it at all if it were to suddenly disappear  Wink

You wouldn't miss it even if you spent 12-14hours online everyday 7days a week?

Have noticed you miss some real social connections when you spend too much time online and connections face to face should be prioritized
Most people don't notice it but we are actually almost all affected by this. Socialization is slowing vaporizing.

Social skills are going down and people spend way too much time connected, it has been proved that it could be a source of depression
Just about everywhere I go, I see people on their smartphones...on the bus, walking down the street....  A couple weeks ago, I saw someone sitting on their front porch in the middle of a beautiful day, just staring at their smartphone.  It's so sad--people miss so much beauty because they're buried in their phone.

People do miss out because of staring at their phones, suggest shutting down your phone when you are with friends, people highly appreciate it
When I was in college and everyone used AIM, my roommate and I sometimes joked about sending each other messages across the room.  Now I see people texting each other across a table at a restaurant...really sad.
504  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 24, 2014, 02:47:17 PM
Fiat is a store of value, but not a good store, as the value evaporates with time. Other money, with a near stable value, is better. Bitcoin is more risky as it can go down further, but since it can also appreciate, it can be described as stable with volatility, or stable with a risk. But I expect the value to go up as far more likely than to go down, so as a store of value it is far better than stable money.

What you're describing is a good investment, not a good currency.  Bitcoin is anything but stable.  Stable plus a little volatility is what the price of a bitcoin on Bitstamp has been for the last few days: it's oscillated only a few dollars around $621 or so.  For normal currencies, a 1% change is big deal.  Look at that article about Venezuela.  60% inflation is insane.  Compare that to the 7000% that bitcoin has gone up in the last 2 years.  You can't tell me that bitcoin is stable.

I didn't.
Um, yes you did.  See the bold text from your previous comment.

Once more. Dollar is perceived as stable, but slowly depreciates at 1.5% to5% per year. That is maybe stable day to day, but it is not at all stable over a decennium.

Bitcoin is designed to be stable over decennia, but is currently not stable day to day. There is a risk of 10 % down at any day, but after 10 years it is either stable or going up. So it is stable over some longer period, but it is volatile day to day. So, it you can stomach the day to day risk, it is stable over 10 years or even 3 years. Better than that for savers, it is expected to go up, even if there is a day to day risk.

I don't care to feed you with a teaspoon on this any more. Take it or leave it.



This doesn't seem like a convincing argument.  Here's why:

1) If after 10 years the value of bitcoins is stable or going up, then  it's *not* stable and going up.

2) There's no reason why after 10 years the value of BTC can't go down.

3) There's no reason that guarantees the value of bitcoins will be stable in 10 years.  It *could* be, but there's no mechanism that ensures this.  

4) If the value of bitcoin goes up (i.e. like a good investment might), you run into the problem of currency hoarding, and this conflicts with the importance of liquidity.  

5) Expecting BTC to go up doesn't mean it will happen.  Ask all the people that bought BTC just before or shortly after the ATH what their expectations were upon buying in.

6) No matter how you spin it, fiat is historically a better store of value as it is less volatile and more predictable.  Imagine having $1000 in USD and $1000 in BTC and asking yourself to predict how much purchasing power you will have in one year.  I can estimate with great confidence how well my $1000 in USD will hold up over that year, but I can't estimate the same for BTC.  Just look at all the predictions on BTC price made on this forum.  A year ago, we had some expecting BTC to be $10,000 by now while others expected it to be closer to $10.  

7) Stemming from this last thought, it's simply a non-sequitur to conclude bitcoin is a better store of value because of a personal expectation you have that leads you to believe it's more probable that BTC value will increase rather than decrease.

Cool There are a handful of scenarios which could wreak utter havoc on BTC as a store of value.  For example, consider that while the total supply of BTC is known, the market supply is not, and this could be very, very problematic.  Many people have stated something to the effect of, "If BTCs/private keys are lost or irretrievable, this decreases the market supply and it just makes the rest of us richer!"  Okay, that's great, but let's say that some large number of BTCs that are assumed to be lost or irretrievable actually aren't.  It's already been estimated that the total number of lost or irretrievable BTCs already tallies into the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.  The problem is there's really no way to make a good estimate.

To illustrate with an extreme example, let's say that all but 1 BTC are considered lost or irretrievable.  Since BTC can be divided infinitesimally, this shouldn't be an issue since the global economy could still function with only 1 BTC in existence, right?  Can't you just shift a few decimal places?  Theoretically this could work, but then imagine what would happen if those BTCs assumed to be lost/irretrievable are discovered to be found and active?  What if the ~1 million BTC that Satoshi mined started moving when all that was assumed to remain was 1 measly BTC?  What do you think about BTC as a store of value then?  Don't you think that it's realistic to expect that, if BTC value continues to rise for many years as you expect it to, there *will* be many BTC hoarders who will also wait years before making their own personal supply known to the markets (i.e. by moving them)?  

TL;DR:  You might want to reconsider your position...

Good points.  I don't think I can improve on this response to what Erdogan said.

Something else to consider about those "irretrievable" coins: they may not be permanently irretrievable.  As technology progresses, it may eventually become feasible to brute force the keys in a reasonable amount of time (although I'm not exactly sure how this would work, so I could be wrong).
505  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 24, 2014, 02:36:50 PM
If you had $1000 in the bank, and they may print a bunch of new money in a few years that $1000 will be worth about $600 today. Bitcointalk would skyrockets soon.

I hope so too, but I am skeptical. I remember a few years ago people were predicting gold price to be $2000-$5000 by now. Well, it did not happen.

Yet because the Gold market is highly manipulated by the US government and big banks, the market will see clearly that the USD will be printed exponentially and the price of Gold will go up tremendously

Patience! Some US officials seem to want to create a war to hide the upcoming problems, Gold will go up in price to new highs
Even if the US continues to print money, that doesn't guarantee that the price of gold will increase.  It's likely, but not guaranteed.  And even if it does go to ATHs, there's no guarantee when that will happen or if the increase in gold's price will beat inflation.  Gold is a commodity on an auction market.  If someone big wants to sell, the price will go down.  And if it's being manipulated, which is likely, then it's hard to predict where the price will go.  It just depends on what the manipulators want.
506  Other / Off-topic / Re: Best Sci-fi on: July 24, 2014, 02:20:46 PM
Tv - Continuum
Movie - last Star Trek movie was good

I am off star trek. The last one was just a remake of Wrath of Khan.
Personally, that's what I loved about the movie.  Wrath of Khan was a classic, and I thought they did a great job of taking some of the elements from that movie and twisting them around to fit the new Star Trek universe.  I thought there was still enough original plot to make the movie interesting.
507  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 24, 2014, 02:14:36 PM
This sure looks wierd. Whoever started the dump from cca $620 can't get back in at the moment, as there are far less sell orders to take us back than the amount that's been dumped since then. Someone is going to get burned hard IMO.

Probably had their bids preplanned and placed already awaiting others to panic and sell into them.  Smiley
Or they actually sold. You know, without the anticipation to buy lower?  Wink

Who'd want to sell at this stage without buying back in? I mean, with all the good plans/news regarding BTC for the next year?
How about people who are trying to pay off all their new mining equipment?  Profit margins are pretty small these days.
508  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 24, 2014, 11:56:51 AM
Hey!
If someone wants to earn few bucks during few hours this is a good time to buy few BTCs and sell at the end of a day.

$614 is quite low and I predict that it won't go lower today.

I think none of your previous predictions were correct. Maybe you should take that as a hint.

Predicting market is one of the hardest task in trading world, because if you are really that good in predicting then you most probably won't spent so much time on forum like this. Or you will create your blog and sell your prediction.
Unless you are rich enough to control a particular market, it's impossible to know exactly what will happen when.  Some trades have higher probability than others, but it's a chaotic system that's impossible to get right all the time.
509  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] SpartanCoin - Cryptocoin for the competitive world. on: July 24, 2014, 06:05:36 AM
In the Mintpal voting, does anyone know what happened to COOL?  They were in 3rd place with over 18k votes on July 19th.  Now they're in 50th place with a little over 4k votes.  Were they cheating or something?  In any case, great for us. Cool  That's a good reason to keep voting.  Other coins may get knocked down for whatever reason.
510  Economy / Economics / Re: Is 1 bitcoin a decent and good investment? on: July 24, 2014, 12:01:03 AM
We are still at the early stage of bitcoin's life, in the future, when the adoption will be completed, they will be valued thousands of dollars.
That's a possibility, but there's still a lot of risk involved.  If it were a sure thing, they'd already be trading at thousands of dollars.
511  Economy / Economics / Re: could decentralized exchanger revolutionize bitcoin? on: July 23, 2014, 11:24:26 PM
Wow, that's really cool!  Irreversible transactions has been one of my biggest concerns with using bitcoin, so I'm really glad to see this innovation.
512  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 23, 2014, 04:53:22 PM
At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?
I think the idea is that someday a majority of the world may choose to use bitcoin over fiat currencies because they've had it with their governments messing with their money.  If BTC becomes the world reserve currency, then most people would use it.  But as I said, I think the world would need to change drastically for this to be feasible.  At some point, if governments feel threatened by it, they may try to damage or kill it.  And it probably wouldn't be too hard to do that, either.

If governments would mess with their money to a degree when you think the majority of the world would choose to use Bitcoin, people will actually switch to anything which has "real" value (say, gold).
That's possible.  But I think such a movement would have to occur among us common folk, if you will (a lot of the rich and those in power probably prefer things they way they are), and bitcoin is more accessible to the average citizen than something like gold.
513  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Poll : do you trust an exchange to hold your bitcoins ? on: July 23, 2014, 04:47:19 PM
Some exchanges are verified because of an audit but as you know some of them can close when they want unpredictably.


I don't trust any of these audits. From what I can tell, none of them have been carried out in a manner that proves current possession of assets to cover all liabilities.
The New York regulations are going to try to change this. The goal of the regulations is to get it so exchanges must prove that they have enough bitcoin to cover all of their customers' bitcoin and fiat deposits.

I like the spirit of this, but if it is a full-reserve system (which is what it sounds like) then I think it risks being too limiting to allow the bitcoin ecosystem to evolve.
Full-reserve systems can certainly inhibit growth, but they're a heck of a lot safer.  I think that part of the spirit of bitcoin is to get away from banks and some of their practices like fractional-reserve banking that lead to all kinds of financial calamities.  I think it's worth it to trade some growth potential for stability.
514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Prediction. $4000-$6500 by August/September 2014. on: July 23, 2014, 04:40:03 PM
I would love it for this to happen but I see this year as a repeat of 2012...let's blowoff some steam, consolidate, and 2015 will be the next rally.
Given how slow things have been lately, I could see it going this way.  I think it mostly depends on when the next big investor opportunity occurs, whether it be an ETF launching or a large market opening up (Russia?).

U think it will be in Russia?

Man i think more like on some country that we least expect.

Maybe some south american country or some other europe country, for price more likely end of year or first quarter of next.
Not necessarily.  I was just looking for an example of a market opening up and Russia came to mind as there was some positive news about it a week or two ago.  I'm not sure if there would be enough demand from them anyway.  What's the status of bitcoin in India?  I haven't heard much about them.
515  Other / Off-topic / Re: Best Sci-fi on: July 23, 2014, 04:28:39 PM
Star Trek, man! Everyone may do what they want and don't have to work if they don't like to. That's awesome, man. Also you can travel everywhere you like and probably eat all day long for free. You'd have to be careful and watch out for those Borg people, I guess!
Yep.  It's communism (perhaps more socialism) made possible by the invention of the replicator. Wink
516  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 23, 2014, 04:23:47 PM
At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?
I think the idea is that someday a majority of the world may choose to use bitcoin over fiat currencies because they've had it with their governments messing with their money.  If BTC becomes the world reserve currency, then most people would use it.  But as I said, I think the world would need to change drastically for this to be feasible.  At some point, if governments feel threatened by it, they may try to damage or kill it.  And it probably wouldn't be too hard to do that, either.
517  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 23, 2014, 04:18:09 PM
Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.
I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.?  The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands.  This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.
And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.
I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility.  But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+.  Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption.  If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.
At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.
I doubt that bitcoin will reach that level of adoption any time in the next few decades, if ever (I have a hard time seeing it as more than another major world currency like USD or CNY unless the organization of the world changes drastically).  But if it does, or if it comes somewhat close to that, then I can see volatility being reduced to the level we see with fiat currencies today.
518  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 23, 2014, 04:12:18 PM
Fiat is a store of value, but not a good store, as the value evaporates with time. Other money, with a near stable value, is better. Bitcoin is more risky as it can go down further, but since it can also appreciate, it can be described as stable with volatility, or stable with a risk. But I expect the value to go up as far more likely than to go down, so as a store of value it is far better than stable money.

What you're describing is a good investment, not a good currency.  Bitcoin is anything but stable.  Stable plus a little volatility is what the price of a bitcoin on Bitstamp has been for the last few days: it's oscillated only a few dollars around $621 or so.  For normal currencies, a 1% change is big deal.  Look at that article about Venezuela.  60% inflation is insane.  Compare that to the 7000% that bitcoin has gone up in the last 2 years.  You can't tell me that bitcoin is stable.

I didn't.
Um, yes you did.  See the bold text from your previous comment.
519  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 23, 2014, 04:08:12 PM
Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.
I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.?  The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands.  This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.
And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.
I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility.  But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+.  Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption.  If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.
520  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 23, 2014, 03:55:18 PM
More goods and services mean more wealth, because that is the definition of wealth. More goods and services compared to last year, means that the productivity has gone up. If this happens and nothing else changes, prices measured in money go down and the value of the money goes up, because that is the definition of value of money. So you don't need more money. You never need more money, a fixed supply is always enough.

If fixed supply is always enough then why inflate btc to 21M?  Why not premine 21M and give everyone an equal amount?  Let the people decide which money they prefer to use?

That could have been done (see Auroracoin). The mining is partly for initial distribution of coins.
And look at how well that worked out for Auroracoin.  While I wish I had a bigger slice of the bitcoin pie, slow distribution is important for adoption, and people need incentive to get into bitcoin and develop businesses around it.
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