Am I missing something here or is Coincube and Anonymint the same person ?
Anyways this is me. [link has been redacted] And this is me 20 years ago (photos taken in mid 1990s): http://www.coolpagehelp.com/developer.htmlI am suggesting to CoinCube that we write a book entitled, The Post-Industrial Knowledge Age, and publish to Google Play and Amazon Kindle (and perhaps even Apple's walled garden bullshit). Because it seems we have complemented each other naturally, even though we didn't have any a priori relationship. I met him here in this thread. I haven't yet attempted to research for similar books that have already been published. Google Chairman Eric Schmidt's, The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business, is one related book. We really need to get these concepts organized, with comprehensive support by real data and citations. I am not a good enough writer to do it by myself and I already committed to too many urgent programming tasks to even attempt it by myself. If anyone thinks they are qualified to help, please PM me. CoinCube, sorry I can't remove that link above, [redacted] I don't think we have anything to hide. It is not like we are developing an anonymous cryptocurrency or anything nefarious. Just writing about the potential changes for the future in a non-partisan and objective way should keep us out of trouble. But perhaps your employer wouldn't like the controversy of you authoring a provocative book which is not in the medical field, although arguably within the scope of your mathematics double major. P.S. The above link of mine died, because I decided not to renew the coolpagehelp.com domain, but the page is available on the web archive: https://web.archive.org/web/20130320133257/http://www.coolpagehelp.com/developer.htmlCoinCube, the area of the country you live is still very community oriented and has the traditional values of the USA. I really enjoyed my drive through that region in the summer of 2003 coming from Corpus Christi, TX where I lived for 2 years and headed towards Bellingham, WA where my mother lives. I really thought about settling there, but I hate snow and cold weather. So I can see why you would be foreign to the concept of a USA that is not functioning well. But the population centers of the USA are not in your region. The real USA is decadent and disassimilating, with some exceptions in rural areas and perhaps the NorthWet, maybe even Minnesota area although I've never been there so I dunno. Btw, I don't hate any race and especially not Hispanics. And there are many upstanding Hispanics who are fine members of the community. I was talking statistical attributes and decadence/disassimilation, not individuals. Remember statistical preferences are not racism. Racism is not allowing a person any chance because of the statistical facts, or worse is stereotypes which are not even statistically valid. If there are any readers of African or Hispanic heritage, please do not think I automatically disrespect you. I form my judgments on a case-by-case, individual-by-individual basis. Besides, I hope to interact online where I don't even see a person's race. And I am not pure Anglo-Saxon. I have Cherokee ancestry (who Btw migrated from Europe, not Asia like some other tribes), in addition to Welsh (see my beloved grandfather who was a CPA), Southern France (perhaps really Italian), and German. If you see any city or town named Shelby in the USA, that is because of my ancestor Isaac Shelby. Hey I grew up until age 15 in inner city New Orleans and Baton Rouge. My sister and I were the only white kids in the entire elementary school in Baton Rouge. The black kids had never touched fine hair before, so I often had oily hands touching my blonde hair from behind my back. I interacted with many blacks, and even I like their style, but fact is that school was a zoo! All the kids did was throw spit balls in the classroom. My education suffered until my Dad put me in Ecole Classique for 8th grade. Up until that time, I had been to perhaps a half a dozen schools. I immediately accelerated, acing my classes especially Algebra I, then the next year Geometry and Algebra II, Latin, biology. Then completing college Calculus at night before graduating High School, while also becoming a top 3 runner on the XCountry and Track teams. I had a setback in first semester of 10th grade because I had left my mother in Louisiana to go live with my father in Culver City, CA. The first semester I was drunk always but only got one B and rest As. I had a 4.0 (all As), the rest of the way through school from then on. I think had I been accelerated much earlier, I would have ended up a PhD. So maybe it is good I wasn't but instead my life took a much more tumultuous and tormented path. |
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Why are people still listening to these idiot gold promoters? I was debating Jim Willie in email back in 2007, when he admitted to me he is an alcoholic. He made no sense then and still doesn't now. Do I need to publish some of these old emails? If you have them please do.... Here is one example email. I will have to wade through all them to find the meat of where I formed my opinion of him. Here is something he wrote which ended being the opposite of what is happening, with the dollar (and thus the US economy) gaining more ingress as the rest of the world is declining first: > here is a queer thought and question ? > if the USEconomy slows down, trade deficit might fall, but federal deficit > might rise > if that happens, less foreign held US$ to buy USTBonds, > when even more are needed to handle an exploding USGovt debt burden As you can see, everything I wrote below came true. Interest rates declined, QE happened, and commodities (or at least gold and silver) peaked just after 2010. I figured that is about low the global economy could absorb more debt before the global marginal-utility-of-debt went negative. I had these things pretty much figured out back in 2006. ---------------------------- Original Message ---------------------------- Subject: Re: Don't expect long-term interest rate to increase that much From: me Date: Mon, August 28, 2006 4:20 pm To: jimwilliecb@aol.com-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks Jim, I didn't consider all those detailed effects. > the longbond continues down in yield as the US trade deficit and oil bills > rise > not much official Fed secret monetization is necessary consequently > > if China had a more mature bond & stock market, they would have drawn > huge amounts of foreign surplus money to invest > but they dont > > heck, even Europe does not believe it has enough liquidity to handle > petro-euro sales > the USTrezBond market is a veritable black hole > / jim > > -----Original Message----- > From: me > To: jimwilliecb@aol.com> Sent: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 4:49 PM > Subject: Don't expect long-term interest rate to increase that much xat > > > Common logic is that housing must crash, because long interest rates must > go rise drastically, due to hyperinflation in supply of paper money (M3). > > However, that is not what has been happening in reality: > > http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/M3%20vs.%20CPI%20vs.%20Interest%20Rates.gif> > As M3 hyperinflation has been accelerating over past 2 decades, > long-interest rates have been declining. The trend is very clear, just > look at the above chart! > > Why? > > Imho, it is because there is always an oversupply of paper money to buy > long-term debt (due to the acceleration of M3) and long-interest rates > reflect the expectations for deflation (global depression) after the > boomers retire, because standing after the boomers are billions of > low-wage laborers. > > The Central Banks have a lot of room to hyperinflate in order to fill in > this gap between low-wage and high-wage economies. > > And who says the Fed can't print money to buy long-term debt, either > directly or indirectly! > > Bottom line is I expect trends to continue, until the western boomers > retire, which reaches it's apex around 2010 or so in USA: > > http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Inflating%20Deflation.html> > This is wonderful for us contrarian investors, because the hyperinflation > in paper money in order to maintain this trend (and not crash the $400 > trillion derivatives), means that commodities, energy (esp. uranium), and > especially precious metals will accelerate in relative value faster, > because of the disportionate ratios created by this paradigm. What I mean > by disportionate ratios, is for example, how keeping housing prices flat > (or +/- few %), means dramatic drawdowns in LME inventories for base > metals, generating supply crises such as we have today in Nickel. Or how > the Money Chart gets more out of whack for total supply of Silver & Gold > relative to total supply of fiat instruments: > > http://silverstockreport.com/email/The_Money_Chart.html> ________________________________________________________________________ > Check out AOL.com today. Breaking news, video search, pictures, email and > IM. All on demand. Always Free. > |
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Why USA lost its economic incentive to assimilatehttp://blog.mpettis.com/2014/12/how-might-a-china-slowdown-affect-the-world/#comment-108803 | Knowledge doesn’t remove uncertainty. On the contrary, the more information we have, the more the noise increases vs signal. In other words, we end up being under the illusion that we understand more. We end up being more prone to facades.
Any system with fat tails ends up having dynamics you’re talking about.
Mathematically incorrect. Study Nicholas Taleb's Anti-fragility concept (whom which btw I exchanged emails and it seemed he basically approved of what I wrote in the [first paragraph of the] linked section of my essay). Since you seem incapable of distilling to generative essence of concepts to conceive how that applies to your myopia, let me spell it out for you. The more numerous and distributed (decentralized) autonomous knowledge agents in a system, the less discontinuous the adjustments the system has to make, i.e. the less far out-of-balance the system becomes. |
Also you can't seem to wrap your naive mind around the generative essence concept that what held the USA together economically (i.e. motivating immigrants to adopt a common language, as opposed to fracturing into factions of immigrant cultures) and propelled it to #1, was the fact that we were in an Industrial Age and during an Industrial Age, as you pointed out efficiency of distribution is a critical economic factor, thus the USA flatlands, navigable waterways, two coasts to two hemispheres of the world, etc.. gave it an unmatched economic advantage.
Thus immigrants had an incentive to assimilate and the economy had an incentive to stay homogeneous for commerce. But watch what happens when the USA economy starts to implode after 2015, as the $200 trillion global debt bubble collapses into contagion. The incentives for assimilation will no longer exist in the Knowledge Age which survives the collapsing Industrial Age which is only be propped up with the $200 trillion of debt, but the fat lady has sung because the global marginal-utility-of-debt has gone negative and we just can't continue borrowing from ourselves to prop up a dying paradigm of physical industry, fixed capital investment, and physical trade as an overvalued activity. Sorry you are wrong.
But as I have explained in my theory of a fledgling Knowledge Age, that the individual knowledge workers didn't have the economy-of-scale to produce and distribute their own knowledge works in a physical economy, and thus were enslaved by fixed capital in the Theory of the Firm and the Industrial Age. But the internet and virtual work and distribution has changed all that. Just like the Second Industrial Revolution was brought on by network effects from the First Industrial Revolution, we are now underway in the Second Computer Revolution where the network effects from the First Computer Revolution are starting to kick in and take effect. Anyone who fails to understand how this changes everything is going to have their myopic teeth kicked out by reality.
Thus the geographical advantage the USA has is now not only muted, but becoming a liability for as I showed in one of the comments that was censored, the USA can't keep up with internet speeds, because of its huge spread out landmass economics and the resultant fascist politics and oligarchies it creates. I don't have time to spoon feed these concepts. You can either learn to read my writings and think deeply for some days, or you continue to remain ignorant. I don't care! I am too busy actually writing software that will radically change the world in this Knowledge Age. I don't have time to deal with Prima Donnas from the Millennials generation nor senile, selfish, entitled, statist, socialist, authoritarian boomers who don't know when it is time to step aside and let our generation express ourselves.
P.S. Appears Prof. Pettis has censored my prior two replies. Perhaps he is going to allow you to spout off with your 20-something, overconfident myopia (Dunning-Kruger effect) unchallenged. But I am posting all my replies at the bitcointalk forum which has 40,000+ reads, so the truth will not be censored and will be on the internet for posterity when everything I am writing comes true (as have all my other major predictions in the past). Because I understand deeply and you do not. Period.
If I don't bother to come back to reply to any more of your nonsense, it is because you are not worth my precious, scarce time. You go on talking to yourself in this limited readership, echo chamber.Note, the Generation Y Millennials generation are likely to "reform government" into a new world order by 2033, because as quoted from that linked page: Born 1981-1993.
Turned 18 from 1999 to 2011.
Now 18-30 years old. | |
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| | Roughly 75M in size. | |
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| | Terrorist attacks on US soil
1st Gulf War
Iraq War
Columbine shootings | |
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| | Civic personality"Can-do attitude"
Entitled
Digital natives |
Thus in my theory they will enjoin the dying fork of the bifurcating economy join boomers like Martin Armstrong who think reforming government is the answer. Whereas, we Gen X will pursue the other fork which is decentralized economy and limited government. Note Generation Z has different attributes. I wrote about this extensively in 2012, I will go find a link... Another proponent of Kondratieff wave cycles is Ian Gordon at longwavegroup.com...
I was writing about that a long time ago along with the generational waves of William Strauss and Neil Howe. I (as AnonyMint) thought I had already put it upthread months ago. Still searching for the link... Ah, here it was: Long Wave Cycle (a generational cycle)https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=594024.msg6551625#msg6551625...the Long Wave Cycle (a generational cycle) which predicts the above effect. The youth will take over after 2032, and the kind of world they will create will be one of extreme idealism. This is FDR New Deal style of dangerous. This will launch big government on a bigger scale than we had ever seen before, i.e. "international cooperation" as code word for loss of local sovereignty. The youth will put in place the U.N. Agenda 21 with a gleam in their eye as they are trained and indoctrinated now to believe for example that man-made global climate change hoax is real and is a real problem.
Here follows the research, and I urge everyone to study this carefully...
...
The Occupy Wall Street “movement” (if there ever was such a thing) – and emerging generations of young Americans more generally – is being led by Brand and other pied pipers away from practical reality and into an illusory “world of pure imagination”. What in 2009 had the makings of a New Deal-oriented mass strike upsurge is being steered off course by Wall Street interests in a rehash of 1968.
I did some research on Tue May 01, 2012 6:36 am (quoted below) on the Long Wave Cycle (a generational cycle) which predicts the above effect. The youth will take over after 2032, and the kind of world they will create will be one of extreme idealism. This is FDR New Deal style of dangerous. This will launch big government on a bigger scale than we had ever seen before, i.e. "international cooperation" as code word for loss of local sovereignty. The youth will put in place the U.N. Agenda 21 with a gleam in their eye as they are trained and indoctrinated now to believe for example that man-made global climate change hoax is real and is a real problem. Here follows the research, and I urge everyone to study this carefully.
I haven't verified whether this long wave cycle principle repeats throughout history, but I assume he has, since he said he spent 10 years perfecting it: http://www.longwavegroup.com/principle/lefi_map/lefi_map.phphttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58qtcPst2OII had read an article that ties this cycle into generational cycle attitudes. I am trying to find it, as I think it explains a difference in world view between Boomers, Gen X, and Gen Y. =========== Okay I found it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss-Howe_generational_theory#Defining_a_generationhttp://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/2011/11/03/bad-moon-risinghttp://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/the-gathering-storm Prophet Nomad Hero Artist
High Childhood Elderhood Midlife Young Adult
Awakening Young Adult Childhood Elderhood Midlife
Unraveling Midlife Young Adult Childhood Elderhood
Crisis Elderhood Midlife Young Adult Childhood High = Spring Awakening = Summer Unraveling = Fall Crisis = Winter Prophet = Boomers (born 1946 - 1964), 40 percent of the workforce Nomad = Gen X (born 1965 - 1979), 16 percent of the workforce Hero = Gen Y (born 1980 - 1994), 25 percent of the workforce Artist = Gen Z (born 1995+) Boomers = vision, values, and religion (loyalty, idealistic, entitled) Nomad = liberty, survival and honor (survival, pragmatic, alienated) Hero = community, affluence, and technology (order, righteous, protected) Artist = expertise and due process (continuity, flexible, overprotected) Some links on different attitudes between the current generations: http://www.reliableplant.com/Read/2431/boomers-generationshttp://jojackson.suite101.com/veterans-baby-boomers-gen-x-gen-y-and-gen-z-a185353http://www.enotes.com/soc/discuss/what-different-characteristics-generation-x-e-90271I made some interesting comments here: http://relativisticobserver.blogspot.com/2012/03/hackers-part-3.html?showComment=1335903496830#c239549748064135439I presented the generational research in the Transparency blog, which explains why we are not going to agree on the use of the government to enforce values: http://relativisticobserver.blogspot.com/2012/04/transparency-way-of-future.html?showComment=1335900204476#c1703906618219560883At least we can be rational about understanding why we have different political philosophies. We Gen X did not grow up entitled. We have to struggle on our own to get where we are. We don't feel entitled, and thus we are not stakeholders in the society that the Boomers built. We trust the free market, because that is what we were dealing with on our own. Social security won't be there for us. The boomers took more than all (debt every where). We've had to scrap and negotiate hard to get some. And instead of giving back to us now the peace of individual freedom that we want, they want to put their value system on us (which will continue to escalate the wars). So there is conflict ahead. The Heros are going to rebuild new institutions and fighting the wars to tear down the current corrupt ones. We Nomads are caught in the cross-fire and just trying to find a way to not get squeezed out. Thus we have no choice but to discard the social contract, as it won't be rebuilt in time for us. So now we can understand why boomer's (you) politics are loyalty, enforcing idealistic values, and maintaining entitlements. And Gen X's (me) politics are liberty, pragmatic survival, individualism (honor), and distrust of values and institutions. I am libertarian anarchist. So trying to convince me that the entitled state should enforce values, is like me telling you that we should privatize the government. Fascinating. It explains why we are going to disagree about any political/social topics, such as Hackers, Transparency, media's role in society, etc.. =========== Some useful tables (although I think this deviates in some cases from the generational theory in the prior comment): http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/2011/11/03/bad-moon-risingThe Boomers (elders) and Heros (youth) are archtypes and will be at odds. Boomers will judge them to have threatened values (remember the Heros are protected), yet ironically the above link claims the Boomers did more drugs, volunteered less, have lower college education, and higher teen pregnancy than the Heros do. 
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http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/t124-theory-of-everthing#3583WHAT IS GOD For a more complete definition of God, go here to the References of this research paper: http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/knowledge-f9/book-ultimate-truth-chapter-6-math-proves-go-forth-multiply-t159-15.htm#3640>> > You never answered the big question. You claim the infinite disorder
>> > is your evidence of god, only god could have created the infinite
>> > disorder.
>> > So what created god?
> I'm really curious as to how you can explain how god existed. You keep
> avoiding this question. Isn't it kind of critical? God is the sum of all matter. God didn't create itself, it never existed, because matter does not exist until it is observed. We create God every day. That is why we were created out of matter. It is important that you can not present any theory for the universe, which also explains what it outside the universe. No one can. So that is why my theory says there is no outside. The universe is 100% disorder meaning infinite possibilities. There is nothing outside, because there is no outside. You see infinite possibilities includes everything. It also explains how the universe wraps onto itself topologically via possibilities.
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I will slamdunk against all the recently posted retorts in my next post after this one. I need to put this issue to rest, I have other more important work to do. I see even now Peking Prof. (and China "expert") Michael Pettis is censoring my replies, even though I had been commenting on his blog for several years. So that means he is going to allow this overconfident (Dunning-Kruger effect) 20-something "Suvy" to spout his myopia without being refuted. Plagues caused by economic collapse—not vice versaHere follows what I replied and was censored. http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/12/how-might-a-china-slowdown-affect-the-world/#comment-108694BTW, in the period for Rome you’re talking about, there was disease epidemics where almost 50% of the Roman population died. Of course the currency will collapse as production certainly did.
In 235, it started off with the assasination of an emperor. At around the same time period, smallpox broke out causing massive population declines. Trade became impossible and unsafe, largely from the stem of disease and political breakdown. Shifts in the climate caused massive population relocations, creating war. http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4946&cpage=1#comment-402900@Winter:
You attempt to remove blame from the effects of top-down governance. Agriculture in Western Europe declined for numerous reasons all of which can be attributed to mismanagement due to top-down control and the funding of such misallocation. Socialized debt is a future tax. The agricultural sector was suffering under increasing taxes after the hyperinflation of the 3rd century had adversely impacted funding for the military while there were increasing military threats to the east. Pottery records indicate production increased through the 4th, as the rural sector was squeezed for every drop by Rome. As with all debt funding, growth was too rapid, and irrigation was polluted by clearing for too many new settlements. The resultant malnutrition, declining production, localized warlords, and thus disease coincided with the collapse of Western Europe due to the bankruptcy of its top-down militarized, servitude model.
We will likely find the same top-down cause applies to of all Dark Ages– even the famines in Africa.
Let me add to that just like in the West where the boomers are attacking the economy by demanding pensions and even the police and governments are now extorting money with Civil Asset Forfeiture, the Roman legions started to ransack the Roman cities to fund their pensions. And you have not seen anything yet, because the West hasn't yet collapsed economically. After 2016, then you will see the really horrific, extremist actions kick into higher gear. As for the moment, everyone is using the illusory measuring ruler propped up temporarily by a $200 trillion global debt bubble. These rampaging legions and the barbarians spread the diseases, just as the attacking barbarians at Ukraine threw the diseased bodies over the defensive walls which lead to the introduction and spread of the Black Death through Europe. Armstrong has even recently put out the thought that the rise in the War Cycle as of 2014 will lead to more disease spread and the pandemic predicted by his cyclic model to peak in 2019. |
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1. Bitcoin is independant of our national economies.
2. Bitcoin is an untaxable money supply.
BS! China and Russia banned it. It is taxable every where else, e.g. the USA. |
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Some of my (JustSaying's) past writings for perspective (when I was apparently much more mentally sharp than I am now, or maybe I've grown weary of repeating myself): http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4867&cpage=1#comment-397476
The US will suffer but still has a foundation of self reliance to call upon when needed. Katrina. The US would have favorable conditions for recovery considering the wealth of natural resources, educated population, and preexisting infrastructure.
You've ignored all the factual points I ( as contagion) made on the last 2 pages of this thread. Sorry you couldn't be more wrong. Sorry guys, the USA will fracture. You really don't want it to be so, because you are emotionally and physically invested in the USA. Denying it is only going to make your planning suffer. What is not clear is to what totalitarian extent the Feds will go to prevent the breakup of the USA. I assume they will push very far into martial law. And if there aren't enough crazies returning from Iraq and militarized police to do the dirty deeds, Kissinger promised UN blue hats on USA soil. You say the people won't allow it, but only a few million have guns. The rest can't resist. TPTB are ready to do this war I think against the NRA. Katrina was the warmup test. pungo, you know what happened to you the last time you didn't plan and had your head in denial about your business. You lost everything. Don't repeat the same damn ignorance again! Cripes man, I thought you were astute and studious. Now I see you foaming nonsense from your mouth and ignoring a person who is much more knowledge and proven to be correct every damn time. Anonymint scrambles his password from time to time when he finds he is spending too much time on the forum.
And I could have ignored others spouting nonsense and not registered again, but it is my concern for the 20-something pungo after having gained a modicum of respect for him, which he seems now determined to destroy. |
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