Is there concrete evidence in the block chain?  Are there indeed altered transactions in the pool?  Is Mt. Gox blowing smoke?

Shoot, I missed seeing it live;



OP: How did you "know"?

When one is rich enough then risking a tiny percentage of your total wealth on things that might make it big is much easier than if one is so poor that the risk of starving to death precludes participation in it; i.e. the rich get richer and the poor starve.  There is no need to manipulate.  The natural news cycle will work nicely.

It seems to me a really good solid cleansing comes from a deep retreat from the old high.

Do current newcomers look at the historic exchange rate (how far back?) or do they embrace the vision of Bitcoin et al?  To me the trend line is a mathematical illusion.  What force of nature (human psychology?) is powering the trend line?

Who is a newcomer?  Why did they come in?

The first 150x was utterly trivial compared to the next 150x; this endeavor is not inevitable yet.  The next 10x is more than the climb from zero to where we are right now.  The easiest part came first with all due credit to the innovators.  Now comes the real work of converting the early majority.  Most of us are early adopters (fans beyond all rational).  Bitcoin and all derivatives thereof will be contained in a niche unless a very good plan is formulated and executed.  Absolutely nothing technical will take us there although plenty of it won't hurt.  Our only real hope to breakout is the magic of an idea whose time has come.

Find someone open-minded but clearly outside our worldview, if you can hook them then carefully analyze their process of conversion.  Gather dozens of these and synthesize from them the plan.  Be prepared to invest significantly.  Failed attempts will harden their hearts against us.

The early majority will not work like us; it is not their dream.  They are merely users.  They like the benefits but leave the growth to someone else.

The public interview was not the important part of the conversation.  I for one would welcome Gavin's field report.

Equity Institutional would not accept my stash of Bitcoins as a portion of my accreditation; they claimed they could be someone else's Bitcoins and they were letting me "borrow" them.  Meanwhile they did accept scanned or electronic copies of various investment statements (which could have easily have been forged).

How could one truly "prove" they qualify?

The exchange rates reflect liquidity and confidence, and supply and demand; supply and demand reflect want or need but mostly emotion.

Liquidity and confidence (or rather the lack thereof) causes Mt. Gox to be 20% higher than other major exchanges (at least for $US/BTC).

Mostly folks enter sells and buys because they just want to; very few transactions are need driven; anyone playing with their grocery money deserve what they get.

Emotions are driven by a wide variety of stimuli.  News, for example, is a big source.  Word of mouth causes many to act.  One very big source of emotion is the exchange rate itself; folks compare the exchange rate vs. the recent history and become agitated.  Rapid declines evoke terror.  Rapid increases overly excited.

Technical analysis attempts to detect emotions in the historic chart of the exchange rate and then predict future emotions; good luck.  It works until it doesn't.

Bitcoin will benefit from a lower level of erratic emotion regarding the exchange rate.  As infectious enthusiasm for the capabilities spread and they are adopted then the fundamental value of Bitcoin will rise.  Building real world infrastructure to further enable the use of Bitcoin will also increase the fundamental value of Bitcoin.  Shifts in the fundamental value will lead to news, etc., and eventually to movement in the exchange rate.

The other side of the exchange rate is also very important.  Supply and demand for $US, for example, reflect into the $US/BTC exchange rate.  The endless news of quantitative easing (debasing) pushes the demand for $US down.  Etc.

No; apparently not one custodian will touch this yet except for accredited investors working through SecondMarket.  Continue to watch for ETFs.

My thought is traditional IRAs are at greater risk than Roth IRAs of being seized.  One approach is to convert to Roth IRAs now; pay the taxes but avoid the penalties.  This is especially good to do now in advance if the income tax rate is going to go up high enough.  If you are worried enough then withdraw paying taxes and penalties.  I'm not that worried yet.

Diversify; remain alert; act quickly when the time comes.

Wow!  Has anyone considered what a functional maximum might be?  I mean, how  many does it take to hit the limit above which the software fails?

I hunted around some but didn't find a topic documenting maximum unconfirmed transactions https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions.  I've watched for only a short while and saw it peak around 2,690 just before block 280873 was added to the chain (thank you Slush) after some 48 minutes had elapsed from the previous block.

Little things like this entertain me.  What is the maximum anyone has observed so far?

*If* every newly mined coin were immediately sold then the exchange rate won't be as high as if they are held instead.

*If* the Bitcoin exchange rate runs up to $1,000,000/BTC then I sincerely doubt a significant fraction of newly minted coins are being sold at that time.

Can we measure the proportion of newly minted coins being moved through an exchange?

I wonder why searching the business WU website for Bitcoin leads to http://business.westernunion.com/resource-center/fx-101/hedging/?

Western Union:
Thanks for the advise David. Due to our policy, advertising BitCoin through our page will not be appropriate, our Sales Team constantly review our market and I am sure they will get to know about your suggestion in the future.

Thanks again for taking some of your valuable time to share this with us.

... and with that they took down my posting on their wall.

David Rabahy:
Hmm, it wasn't my intention to advertise Bitcoin but I can see where it might have looked like that.  Can you help me connect with your Sales Team?

Western Union:
And how could Western Union help you in regards this, is there something we can do for you?

David Rabahy:
Personally I am just promoting Bitcoin.  I see a tremendous opportunity for Western Union to take advantage of Bitcoin.  What I would like is for Western Union to examine Bitcoin and see if it makes sense to take advantage of it.  I know a lot about Bitcoin and would be delighted to share my knowledge.

I send them the following private message;

Bitcoin *might* be an option to explore for international money transfer.  It might have the potential to save millions of dollars compared to bank transmission and forex fees.  Also, Bitcoin ATMs in stores could be very handy.

Neat;

Western Union:  Hello David, could you please send us a private message that includes detailed information on why you suggest BitCoin to be examined? Tell us about your experience, we will be more than glad to help you.

Um, what do I say?

I've posted a message to https://www.facebook.com/WesternUnion; might I suggest we all go there and add our support?

In my opinion, it would be highly useful to launch a campaign to position bitcoin as the competition for Western Union.  Since bitcoin can and is likely to eat Western Union's lunch; we should approach them.  Either they can adopt bitcoin and survive and thrive *or* enter a phase of decline.  Who speaks for bitcoin?  It seems unreasonable to trust Western Union will figure this out on their own.

It seems to me Bitcoin is at the beginning edge of the chasm per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm.  The Bitcoin exchange rates will mostly slump until the pragmatists (early majority) climb on board.  If they don't then Bitcoin fails.