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5141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do you think we are in the bubble? on: February 15, 2013, 12:11:20 PM
Quote
Here's a moving average over the last year

Here's an economic bubble chart:


Somehow it looks like we are in media attention phase. I haven't seen any significant news articles mainly focussing the bitcoin price yet. Besides the slope is still not as steep as during the 2011 bubble. I think we'll see a final spike to about 40-50.

Really? http://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/02/14/why-i-dont-think-bitcoins-big-price-rise-is-another-bubble/
5142  Economy / Trading Discussion / Trading with EUR or USD at MtGox? on: February 15, 2013, 10:47:59 AM
I just verified my account at MtGox. I'm supposed to do a SEPA transfer in EUR. As the USD market has a much bigger volume, wouldn't make sense to convert my funds to USD and trade in USD? I see only a few trades being made in EUR.
5143  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Converting large amount of BTC to fiat on: February 15, 2013, 09:04:50 AM
good to know that. Smiley

this person (Rampion) already has about 50K BTC, and trying to encash.

Not really. Mine was just an hypothetical situation. I wanted to understand where are we standing at regarding the trade of large amount of BTC. I guess the trade volume in the market is still very small.

Thanks for your useful insights.
5144  Economy / Economics / PRESS: Why I'm Not Ready To Sell My Bitcoins (FORBES) on: February 15, 2013, 07:42:25 AM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/02/14/why-i-dont-think-bitcoins-big-price-rise-is-another-bubble/


Earlier today, the price of Bitcoins rose above $27 for the first time since 2011. That represents a doubling of the $13.50 price of Bitcoins at the start of 2013, which in turn, was nearly triple the $4.75 value of Bitcoins at the start of 2012.

Of course, $27 is not an all-time record price for Bitcoins. The record-high price of just under $32 was reached on June 8, 2011. The price then crashed, falling to a low of $2 in November of 2011.

By the end of 2011, almost everyone regarded the peak of $32 as a crazy bubble, and the subsequent decline as a restoration of sanity. Including me: in August 2011 I predicted that the Bitcoin economy would gradually deflate until it had dwindled away to nothing.

Obviously I was wrong. By January 2012, prices had risen again from $2 to about $7. That price increase persuaded me that Bitcoin wasn’t a fad after all. The fact that people were still willing to buy after seeing Bitcoins lose 90 percent of their value suggested to me that the currency was likely to have long-term staying power. And if the currency could be counted on to hold its value over time, that made it a plausible platform on which to build new financial services. I bought a few dozen Bitcoins in early 2012. So far, it’s proven to be a good investment.

So is the new Bitcoin price rise a bubble? I don’t think so. Nothing like Bitcoin has ever existed before, so it’s not clear how to compute a “fundamental” value for it. But I think it helps to imagine if Bitcoin were a startup company rather than a peer-to-peer network. Bitcoin, Inc. would have a radically new technology, thousands of loyal customers, and a growing community of other venture-backed startups building products and services on top of the infrastructure it provided. Such a company would have venture capitalists beating down its doors.

You can’t buy stock in Bitcoin, Inc, but holding the currency itself is a bet on the future growth of the Bitcoin economy. The value of Bitcoins has been closely correlated with the total volume of Bitcoin transactions, which have been growing rapidly, if somewhat erratically, for more than 2 years. The supply of Bitcoins is capped, so as the volume of Bitcoin-denominated transactions grows, the value of Bitcoins will have to increase to accomodate it.

What will people use Bitcoins for? So far, the most widely-discussed applications have been unsavory ones. You can buy drugs with Bitcoins on Silk Road or gamble with a service called Satoshi Dice. But it’s not hard to imagine more savory uses being developed in the future. For example, right now, the wire transfer industry is dominated by monolithic firms like Western Union. Bitcoin could make it possible to build a decentralized Western Union competitor that in principle could have lower fees and much greater convenience.

That’s just a guess off the top of my head. It’s hard to predict how people will use disruptive technologies, so I’m probably wrong about that specific application. But Bitcoin is a sufficiently novel technology, with security and privacy features traditional financial networks can’t match, that it seems likely that people will find something cool to do with it. And when they do, they’ll need to get their hands on a lot of Bitcoins. So I’m not ready to sell mine yet.
5145  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: PHP martingale bot for satoshiDICE on: February 14, 2013, 08:25:30 AM

Well, if you play long enough, your losses will get arbitrarily close to the house edge.

But if you only play a few times you can end up making a profit.

The guy who only ever makes one bet and doubles his stake has "escaped the house edge", hasn't he?

I assume that the purpose of a bot is to play long enough.

No, anyone using a bot is likely to have played too long. The longer you play, the more likely your luck tends to expected, and the vloser you tend to get to a loss equating to the house edge. That's just rephrasing what dooglus wrote.

It boils down to: the longer you martingale, the more likely your winnngs are to be a range that can be mathematically described as follows:

Code:
lost your shirt <  earnings <  (1 - house edge) * amount you bet


The longer you martingale, the more likely you will lose enough times in a row to loose all your money. Bets grow exponentially, money is not infinite.

Unless you have 50 billion... But then why would you Martingale just to double the first bet? It's kinda stupid to bet, let's say 512 BTC (cumulative bet 1023 BTC), to win only 1 BTC.
5146  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: February 13, 2013, 11:06:50 PM
We could have a bit of insider trading with all this mystery
5147  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: PHP martingale bot for satoshiDICE on: February 13, 2013, 10:48:58 PM

Well, if you play long enough, your losses will get arbitrarily close to the house edge.

But if you only play a few times you can end up making a profit.

The guy who only ever makes one bet and doubles his stake has "escaped the house edge", hasn't he?

I assume that the purpose of a bot is to play long enough.
5148  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Blockchain.info coin mixer TOTAL RIPOFF on: February 13, 2013, 06:02:29 PM
I never used the mixer. But if it is as good as the other blockchain.info's services that I did use, 1.5% fee is fair and reasonable.
5149  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: Someone Sold 7 BTC at $40 on BitFloor on: February 13, 2013, 01:56:23 PM
Someone sold 7 BTC at $40 on BitFloor. See the high at
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitfloorUSD.html

I've been buying some BTC on BitFloor and there haven't been many BTC offered for sale. But if more sales start to happen at $40, I might have to quit buying and start selling.

Sorry for the newbie question, but how do you see that 7 BTC were sold at $40? I see the candlestick stating that the higher price was $40, but I don't know how to see how many BTC were traded at that price.
5150  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: PHP martingale bot for satoshiDICE on: February 13, 2013, 10:47:15 AM
You cannot escape the house edge. Never.

http://www.goodbonusguide.com/casino-articles/roulette-systems-destroying-the-martingale-theory-myth.html
5151  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: accepting stolen bitcoins on: February 12, 2013, 06:10:11 PM
Or an automated mixing client option so everyone's coins are cleaned, NO MATTER WHAT.

This. The traceability of all transactions in the blockchain can be dangerous for privacy. May expose your entire balance to malicious eyes. If bitcoin grows, software will be created to datamine the blockchain in order to find potential, wealthy victims.
5152  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Vote: Do you think Butterfly Labs will deliver their ASICs this month? on: February 12, 2013, 04:58:00 PM
I work with China. In February everything stops because the Chinese New Year. No way they ship in February.
So you claim, That my electric companies telephone lines will not be open due to Chinese New Year?
And that (for the lulz) the police services across the world will all go on holliday on at the same time? (not to say that they will stop, Just that they would swap to Holliday style hours and active employees)
And that my nearby Walmart will be closed for the CNY?
And that i wont beable to buy booze due to the CNY?

Only china related things are going to be affected by the CNY, Seriously you're being a total fool here.

And incase you were reffering Only to shipping, Only China related shipments are going to slowdown, seriously. Goahead and tell me that my package (HDD) from Canada(Richmond BC), through Purolator(delivery service), To an island in Canada [Victoria BC(where i live)] is going to get slown down by the CNY.
I would love to hear you explanation as to how my package is going to stop moving when the CNY occurs.
MAYBE it MIGHT slowdown because of..... Hmm.... Chinas stuff not moving? how?

I'm obviously talking about everything in China. I don't believe they already have all the chips, etc. If they still need something from China, it won't be shipped before March. That's it. And it seems very strange to me that they don't assemble in China. It's way cheaper.
5153  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Vote: Do you think Butterfly Labs will deliver their ASICs this month? on: February 12, 2013, 03:25:23 PM
I work with China. In February everything stops because the Chinese New Year. No way they ship in February.
5154  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Building Armory on OSX on: February 11, 2013, 06:24:16 PM

So the auto-key-locate line at the very bottom looks fine, but I think the "comment GPGTools..." part might be breaking it.  Try making it look like this:


Done. What should I do to check that now is working?
5155  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: February 11, 2013, 05:41:12 PM
I would love to buy a few shares of ASICMining. Any idea of when the exchange will open?

Check the auctions forum, theres at least two open auctions for asicminer shares, including one guy selling 5000 in blocks of 100.

I'm more modest, I'm looking to buy only 50  Embarrassed
5156  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Building Armory on OSX on: February 11, 2013, 05:31:01 PM
I've tweaked the formula, and it should work better now.

That did it! Genius! It's scanning the blockchain at the moment Wink

I just realized that this process is not going to work on the old offline computer I was going to use for cold storage, which is also an old macbook pro... I think I will just format it and install Ubuntu then.


This error means there is more than likely an error in your gpg.conf.  Can you make sure nothing is sensitive in there and then post the contents here?  I don't think this is a problem with brew.

In the mean time, read my post above for working around gpg.


Well, the truth is that i have NO gpg.conf on my computer Huh

EDIT: I found the file, but OSX's finder took forever to find it. Here are the contents:

Quote
# These first three lines are not copied to the gpg.conf file in
# the users home directory.
# $Id$
# Options for GnuPG
# Copyright 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003,
#           2010 Free Software Foundation, Inc.
#
# This file is free software; as a special exception the author gives
# unlimited permission to copy and/or distribute it, with or without
# modifications, as long as this notice is preserved.
#
# This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but
# WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY, to the extent permitted by law; without even the
# implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
#
# Unless you specify which option file to use (with the command line
# option "--options filename"), GnuPG uses the file ~/.gnupg/gpg.conf
# by default.
#
# An options file can contain any long options which are available in
# GnuPG. If the first non white space character of a line is a '#',
# this line is ignored.  Empty lines are also ignored.
#
# See the man page for a list of options.

# Uncomment the following option to get rid of the copyright notice

#no-greeting

# If you have more than 1 secret key in your keyring, you may want to
# uncomment the following option and set your preferred keyid.

#default-key <TAKEN OUT>

# If you do not pass a recipient to gpg, it will ask for one.  Using
# this option you can encrypt to a default key.  Key validation will
# not be done in this case.  The second form uses the default key as
# default recipient.

#default-recipient some-user-id
#default-recipient-self

# By default GnuPG creates version 4 signatures for data files as
# specified by OpenPGP.  Some earlier (PGP 6, PGP 7) versions of PGP
# require the older version 3 signatures.  Setting this option forces
# GnuPG to create version 3 signatures.

#force-v3-sigs

# Because some mailers change lines starting with "From " to ">From "
# it is good to handle such lines in a special way when creating
# cleartext signatures; all other PGP versions do it this way too.
# To enable full OpenPGP compliance you may want to use this option.

#no-escape-from-lines

# When verifying a signature made from a subkey, ensure that the cross
# certification "back signature" on the subkey is present and valid.
# This protects against a subtle attack against subkeys that can sign.
# Defaults to --no-require-cross-certification.  However for new
# installations it should be enabled.

require-cross-certification


# If you do not use the Latin-1 (ISO-8859-1) charset, you should tell
# GnuPG which is the native character set.  Please check the man page
# for supported character sets.  This character set is only used for
# metadata and not for the actual message which does not undergo any
# translation.  Note that future version of GnuPG will change to UTF-8
# as default character set.

#charset utf-8

# Group names may be defined like this:
#   group mynames = paige 0x12345678 joe patti
#
# Any time "mynames" is a recipient (-r or --recipient), it will be
# expanded to the names "paige", "joe", and "patti", and the key ID
# "0x12345678".  Note there is only one level of expansion - you
# cannot make an group that points to another group.  Note also that
# if there are spaces in the recipient name, this will appear as two
# recipients.  In these cases it is better to use the key ID.

#group mynames = paige 0x12345678 joe patti

# Some old Windows platforms require 8.3 filenames.  If your system
# can handle long filenames, uncomment this.

#no-mangle-dos-filenames

# Lock the file only once for the lifetime of a process.  If you do
# not define this, the lock will be obtained and released every time
# it is needed - normally this is not needed.

#lock-once

# GnuPG can send and receive keys to and from a keyserver.  These
# servers can be HKP, email, or LDAP (if GnuPG is built with LDAP
# support).
#
# Example HKP keyservers:
#      hkp://keys.gnupg.net
#      hkp://subkeys.pgp.net
#
# Example email keyserver:
#      mailto:pgp-public-keys@keys.pgp.net
#
# Example LDAP keyservers:
#      ldap://pgp.surfnet.nl:11370
#      ldap://keyserver.pgp.com
#
# Regular URL syntax applies, and you can set an alternate port
# through the usual method:
#      hkp://keyserver.example.net:22742
#
# If you have problems connecting to a HKP server through a buggy http
# proxy, you can use keyserver option broken-http-proxy (see below),
# but first you should make sure that you have read the man page
# regarding proxies (keyserver option honor-http-proxy)
#
# Most users just set the name and type of their preferred keyserver.
# Note that most servers (with the notable exception of
# ldap://keyserver.pgp.com) synchronize changes with each other.  Note
# also that a single server name may actually point to multiple
# servers via DNS round-robin.  hkp://keys.gnupg.net is an example of
# such a "server", which spreads the load over a number of physical
# servers.  To see the IP address of the server actually used, you may use
# the "--keyserver-options debug".

keyserver hkp://keys.gnupg.net
#keyserver http://http-keys.gnupg.net
#keyserver mailto:pgp-public-keys@keys.nl.pgp.net
#keyserver ldap://pgp.surfnet.nl:11370
#keyserver ldap://keyserver.pgp.com

# Common options for keyserver functions:
#
# include-disabled = when searching, include keys marked as "disabled"
#                    on the keyserver (not all keyservers support this).
#
# no-include-revoked = when searching, do not include keys marked as
#                      "revoked" on the keyserver.
#
# verbose = show more information as the keys are fetched.
#           Can be used more than once to increase the amount
#           of information shown.
#
# use-temp-files = use temporary files instead of a pipe to talk to the
#                  keyserver.  Some platforms (Win32 for one) always
#                  have this on.
#
# keep-temp-files = do not delete temporary files after using them
#                   (really only useful for debugging)
#
# honor-http-proxy = if the keyserver uses HTTP, honor the http_proxy
#                    environment variable
#
# broken-http-proxy = try to work around a buggy HTTP proxy
#
# auto-key-retrieve = automatically fetch keys as needed from the keyserver
#                     when verifying signatures or when importing keys that
#                     have been revoked by a revocation key that is not
#                     present on the keyring.
#
# no-include-attributes = do not include attribute IDs (aka "photo IDs")
#                         when sending keys to the keyserver.

keyserver-options auto-key-retrieve

# Uncomment this line to display photo user IDs in key listings and
# when a signature from a key with a photo is verified.

#show-photos

# Use this program to display photo user IDs
#
# %i is expanded to a temporary file that contains the photo.
# %I is the same as %i, but the file isn't deleted afterwards by GnuPG.
# %k is expanded to the key ID of the key.
# %K is expanded to the long OpenPGP key ID of the key.
# %t is expanded to the extension of the image (e.g. "jpg").
# %T is expanded to the MIME type of the image (e.g. "image/jpeg").
# %f is expanded to the fingerprint of the key.
# %% is %, of course.
#
# If %i or %I are not present, then the photo is supplied to the
# viewer on standard input.  If your platform supports it, standard
# input is the best way to do this as it avoids the time and effort in
# generating and then cleaning up a secure temp file.
#
# The default program is "xloadimage -fork -quiet -title 'KeyID 0x%k' stdin"
# On Mac OS X and Windows, the default is to use your regular JPEG image
# viewer.
#
# Some other viewers:
# photo-viewer "qiv %i"
# photo-viewer "ee %i"
# photo-viewer "display -title 'KeyID 0x%k'"
#
# This one saves a copy of the photo ID in your home directory:
# photo-viewer "cat > ~/photoid-for-key-%k.%t"
#
# Use your MIME handler to view photos:
# photo-viewer "metamail -q -d -b -c %T -s 'KeyID 0x%k' -f GnuPG"

#  *** Options for GPGTools ***

# Automatic key location
#
# GnuPG can automatically locate and retrieve keys as needed using the
# auto-key-locate option.  This happens when encrypting to an email
# address (in the "user@example.com" form), and there are no
# user@example.com keys on the local keyring.  This option takes the
# following arguments, in the order they are to be tried:
#
# cert = locate a key using DNS CERT, as specified in RFC-4398.
#        GnuPG can handle both the PGP (key) and IPGP (URL + fingerprint)
#        CERT methods.
#
# pka = locate a key using DNS PKA.
#
# ldap = locate a key using the PGP Universal method of checking
#        "ldap://keys.(thedomain)".  For example, encrypting to
#        user@example.com will check ldap://keys.example.com.
#
# keyserver = locate a key using whatever keyserver is defined using
#             the keyserver option.
#
# You may also list arbitrary keyservers here by URL.
#
# Try CERT, then PKA, then LDAP, then hkp://keys.gnupg.net:
auto-key-locate cert pka ldap hkp://keys.gnupg.net

comment GPGTools - http://gpgtools.org
5157  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Building Armory on OSX on: February 11, 2013, 04:27:51 PM
The GPG stuff is only used to validate the downloads.  In a previous post in this thread he gives a command line option to disable the check, hopefully that will also disable the dependency of gnupg.


I tried

brew install --skip-verify wysenynja/bitcoin/armory-qt

AND

brew install wysenynja/bitcoin/armory-qt --skip-verify

I still get:

Error: You must `brew link gnupg' before armory-qt can be installed
5158  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: February 11, 2013, 03:29:14 PM
I would love to buy a few shares of ASICMining. Any idea of when the exchange will open?
5159  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Building Armory on OSX on: February 11, 2013, 03:16:06 PM
The GPG stuff is only used to validate the downloads.  In a previous post in this thread he gives a command line option to disable the check, hopefully that will also disable the dependency of gnupg.


Do you think it's safe to disable the GPG check? Armory handles sensitive stuff Wink
5160  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL Jalapeno coins per day in a few months? on: February 11, 2013, 02:53:48 PM
I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Mathematics or it didn't happen..


Could you please elaborate?

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Well, that's disappointing. Then it's much more convenient to simply buy bitcoins Sad

Generally that's almost always the case.

Well, that's a pity. I was willing to invest on the stability of the network, while getting a few bitcoins in exchange. I don't want to make a profit, nor to convert the BTC to fiat, but at least I would like to recoup the investment in BTC in a reasonable timing. The truth is that, if it's true that is more convenient to buy than to mine, I don't understand the mining profitability charts I've seen (almost 20% monthly ROI? WTF?), and the amount of people preordering ASIC like crazy.
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