#People	#Bitcoins	poeple * avg
1	BTC1m-1.5m	1.25M
2	BTC500k-1m	1.5M
3	BTC250k-500k	1.125M
7	BTC150k-250k	1.4M
15	BTC50k-150k	1.5M
50	BTC10k-50k	1.5M
300	BTC2.1k-10k	1.85M
1000	BTC100-2.1k	1.1M
5000	BTC10-100	275k
10000	BTC1-10	55k
50000	BTC0.1-1	27.5k
150000	BTC0.00000001-0.1	7.5k

total sum of last column: 11,555,000 BTC

into the last column I put the avg("from", "to") * "# of people" . In below chart this avg was used for the blue bars.



pulled out of my ass and yes: it's extremely top heavy compared to rpietilas distribution.

It's interesting that the groups down to and including the "100-2.1k" group all sum up to pretty much the same amount. (I didn't manipulate this, it was a surprise to me). Maybe I'm underestimating the number of people in the lower groups ("0.00000001-0.1" through "10-100")? There's probably more that 10,000 people with holding of 1 to 10 BTC, no? I'm really not sure.

I somehow hope I'm completely wrong with this guesswork of mine.

wishful thinking

or they are better educated (bitcoin takes a while to sink in) and think: "fucking hell, this time I'm not missing the train."

Good ol dirty communist rocket fuel. I love the smell!

maybe there is a service called "baidu trends"?

eternal fame!

Almost bough one last week, but calculated it would be too risky, so I didn't.

Why is this about mining at all? Please clear me up.

Buy & hold is not the worst strategy at times like this.

You did well, though. Congrats.

no, still very much on the ground. But losing weight and exhausting lot's of smoke and fire!

EDIT:

I have pending BTC and LTC withdrawal request since 15 hours. How long will it take?

why are all electrum servers I try "Server is lagging (47 blocks)"?

I don't know why a tab in my browser is open with this link: http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/09/03/new-mystery-about-satoshi/

was it linked from here?

Highly interesting stuff about early mining (maybe signatures)

just found an interesting link referenced from the thread I linke from above:



I don't know if it applies to bitcoin holdings distribution.

rpietila, in general I think your table is roughly accurate. It matches quite well what I have in my head about the BTC holdings distribution. Thanks for sharing!


we won't know until he moves these coins. Afaik they are still sitting there (~1 million coins unmoved, see my post linked below for more exact data). I suggest we simply assume he still has access to them.

We use different meaning of the term "mystery miner". Back in 2011 there was a miner popping up with lots of power for a short period of time, noone knew who he was. He mined for a while, then disappeared. He was named "the mystery miner", or short: MM). Back then his coins remained unmoved for months. Not sure they're still sitting there (see spike in the following graph and click graph for more info)


(click for larger version and background info)

I also did some analysis on 2009 coins back in 2011: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37333.msg458441#msg458441

That whole thread contains relevant info to this discussion here, so the inclined might want to read a bit from it.


my guess is 100-200kBTC


This is hard to guess. I would guess: Satoshi (1 million), 2-3 friends of Satoshi (2.5 * 500k), about 3-4 early GPU miners (3.5 * 250k), about 5-10 dudes like DPR (7.5 * 150k). Sum: 4.25 million BTC.


This is very hard to guess. We can put an upper bound using the blockchain (number of addresses ever used) assuming they hold their keys privately. In early 2012 this was about 500k Addresses. Anyone have newer data? We can probably divide this by at least 10 due to people using multiple addresses (I'm pretty sure I used 200 addresses myself already).


I agree. But first I'd like to try to collect more data and do more guessing / estimating. I will likely reactivate my bitcoin-abe database so I can pull some figures (like above-references 2009 coin age (maybe also 2010) and number of distinct addresses used). This might happen this weekend.

I have loads of ideas how to pull different kinds of relevant data from the blockchain... but these analyses are not simple to conduct.

I almost didn't post the little joke for exactly that reason. Didn't want to bring back those memories.


I'm looking forward to that. I've put some thought into this distribution and it's change over time myself.

yeah, these guys are having fun trading back and forth at 0%. As long as they remain confident price will go up, all is good

Would be ok by me, but seems unlikely.

Ok, this one (my post was 18 hours ago) broke up.

A new such bull-flag-like pennant is forming.

I think it will also break upwards.

I think that's a good idea. Have some ways/action at the party to give to different charities. That way we don't look as much like rich assholes.

I'm against having a sauna!