Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[prophetx]

Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west.

Dump with friends!

All we want to know is....
when will the whales dump?

They won't tell, that's the biggest secret. The question is if they are nice whales or asshole whales.

smart whales are actually waiting at the bottom... 

[Tzupy]

Only a dumb whale would dump now. We just started a new sub-sub-wave with an overturned drop, so we go up for a while.
The big smart whales will let panic buyers get their coins at 250+.

[thoughtfan]

Chinese people buy in chinese exchanges and then western people who are already familiar with the bitcoin buy in example bitstamp. Normal western people are not yet interested (google trends) but when we break ATH they will be and then everybody just BUY BUY BUY =D

It's also possible everyone who wanted to learn about bitcoin already did that back in april, and when it does hit the media those people will be like "meh, again? I'm not falling for this again!".

Those people buy when we break $500 and then they sell at the next correction bottom.

this ... is exactly why most people will not touch bitcoin with a 10 foot pole... only a few suckers will do this, and btc will get a bad reputation- it is actually pretty bad already among the normal people...

ask anyone who is a CFO or accountant if they think any large business would want to use a currency that fluctuates by 50% in any given week, and has an ultra thin market.

when people will realize that increase in bitcoin price was not a bubble but normal market fluctuations, they will come back, especially when banks will introduce new limitations or fees for their services. Not to mention bail ins and outs.

As for the second sentence, you didn't expected new currency to be introduced with full market first day of it's existence?

the ultra thin market exists because 95% of btc is hoarded, not because it is the first day of existence (which happened a while ago btw).

the hoarding causes speculative boom and bust cycles.

the volatility from the boom and bust cycles diminish the intended economic advantage of using a trustless p2p money system vs third parties.  the diminished value lowers adoption rates...

anyway i think we will test 266 soonish...

At first consideration I can't see how money out of circulation can 'cause speculative boom and bust cycles'.  Are you suggesting fear of hoarders dumping feeds busts?  Surely if these nasty hoarders/long-term-speculators/savers selflessly did something with their coin so that they are in circulation, after the adjustment in price we'd be subject to the same cyclic upward and downward pressures - and we would be forever fearing someone new isn't going to come in and hoard loads (thus exposing us to the same supposed problems).

Can't we just accept it is going to go up and down quite drastically for some time because it is very small and someone with a reasonable amount of money can move the market quite significantly?  That's just the way it is until 'market cap' is much much higher - and in order to get there the value has to rise - and due to human nature it IS NOT going to rise nice and smoothly to provide the ideal adoption-for-transactions circumstances you desire.  It is simply what it is!

[ShroomsKit]

Poor Rampion. He is still waiting for Bitcoin to hit 50 dollar. Because that is the only way it can go up again.
Is that clown still posting here?

[prophetx]

At first consideration I can't see how money out of circulation can 'cause speculative boom and bust cycles'.  Are you suggesting fear of hoarders dumping feeds busts?  Surely if these nasty hoarders/long-term-speculators/savers selflessly did something with their coin so that they are in circulation, after the adjustment in price we'd be subject to the same cyclic upward and downward pressures - and we would be forever fearing someone new isn't going to come in and hoard loads (thus exposing us to the same supposed problems).

Can't we just accept it is going to go up and down quite drastically for some time because it is very small and someone with a reasonable amount of money can move the market quite significantly?  That's just the way it is until 'market cap' is much much higher - and in order to get there the value has to rise - and due to human nature it IS NOT going to rise nice and smoothly to provide the ideal adoption-for-transactions circumstances you desire.  It is simply what it is!

it is called a liquidity trap, which in btc's case diminishes the network effect thus lowering tx and overall network value.

anyway i am writing all this down to see if my analysis turns out wrong or right 3 to 6 months out and there is a reversal. if it is wrong then i have to rethink. if it turns out right then i'll feel good about getting it right.

 

[molecular]

Google trends image. What exactly is fueling this rally? This tells me it's old money doing the same all over.

maybe there is a service called "baidu trends"?

[molecular]

The fuel comes from CHINA!!! How hard is this to understand?

Good ol dirty communist rocket fuel. I love the smell!

[molecular]

Chinese people buy in chinese exchanges and then western people who are already familiar with the bitcoin buy in example bitstamp. Normal western people are not yet interested (google trends) but when we break ATH they will be and then everybody just BUY BUY BUY =D

It's also possible everyone who wanted to learn about bitcoin already did that back in april, and when it does hit the media those people will be like "meh, again? I'm not falling for this again!".

or they are better educated (bitcoin takes a while to sink in) and think: "fucking hell, this time I'm not missing the train."

[molecular]

It's gonna crash hard;

wishful thinking

[ChartBuddy]

[Walsoraj]

Google trends image. What exactly is fueling this rally? This tells me it's old money doing the same all over.

maybe there is a service called "baidu trends"?

Zero trade fees in china is fueling this pump/fake-rally.

[Nightowlace]

While I am long term positive on BTC I am not feeling good about this rise in price. It's too fast. Dump coming soon.

[Cablez]

It's gonna crash hard;

wishful thinking

I don't really see it as wishful thinking as the only thing that has been as spectacular as the price rises has been the following crashes, right now that is bitcoin's world.  I also seem to remember back in April people were saying the Chinese were snapping up bitcoin relentlessly and we know how that turned out.

I still haven't heard of any real news like the technical limitations of the protocol being solved yet so where this no news rally comes from is still a mystery. I am sure what people are doing and not saying is preparing for the next swing down.  Its all roses til its all shit.  

[Walsoraj]

It's gonna crash hard;

wishful thinking

I don't really see it as wishful thinking as the only thing that has been as spectacular as the price rises has been the following crashes, right now that is bitcoin's world.  I also seem to remember back in April people were saying the Chinese were snapping up bitcoin relentlessly and we know how that turned out.

I still haven't heard of any real news like the technical limitations of the protocol being solved yet so where this no news rally comes from is still a mystery. I am sure what people are doing and not saying is preparing for the next swing down.  Its all roses til its all shit.  

There is nothing mysterious about what is going on. Some stupid American lost a lot of money last bubble and found an easy way to pump the price in China w/ no fees.

[thoughtfan]

At first consideration I can't see how money out of circulation can 'cause speculative boom and bust cycles'.  Are you suggesting fear of hoarders dumping feeds busts?  Surely if these nasty hoarders/long-term-speculators/savers selflessly did something with their coin so that they are in circulation, after the adjustment in price we'd be subject to the same cyclic upward and downward pressures - and we would be forever fearing someone new isn't going to come in and hoard loads (thus exposing us to the same supposed problems).

Can't we just accept it is going to go up and down quite drastically for some time because it is very small and someone with a reasonable amount of money can move the market quite significantly?  That's just the way it is until 'market cap' is much much higher - and in order to get there the value has to rise - and due to human nature it IS NOT going to rise nice and smoothly to provide the ideal adoption-for-transactions circumstances you desire.  It is simply what it is!

it is called a liquidity trap, which in btc's case diminishes the network effect thus lowering tx and overall network value.

anyway i am writing all this down to see if my analysis turns out wrong or right 3 to 6 months out and there is a reversal. if it is wrong then i have to rethink. if it turns out right then i'll feel good about getting it right.

Though not an economist I'm not convinced what you are describing is called a liquidity trap, nor can I see how a limited available amount of bitcoins in circulation diminishes the 'network effect'.  Would you care to elaborate?
 

[prophetx]

At first consideration I can't see how money out of circulation can 'cause speculative boom and bust cycles'.  Are you suggesting fear of hoarders dumping feeds busts?  Surely if these nasty hoarders/long-term-speculators/savers selflessly did something with their coin so that they are in circulation, after the adjustment in price we'd be subject to the same cyclic upward and downward pressures - and we would be forever fearing someone new isn't going to come in and hoard loads (thus exposing us to the same supposed problems).

Can't we just accept it is going to go up and down quite drastically for some time because it is very small and someone with a reasonable amount of money can move the market quite significantly?  That's just the way it is until 'market cap' is much much higher - and in order to get there the value has to rise - and due to human nature it IS NOT going to rise nice and smoothly to provide the ideal adoption-for-transactions circumstances you desire.  It is simply what it is!

it is called a liquidity trap, which in btc's case diminishes the network effect thus lowering tx and overall network value.

anyway i am writing all this down to see if my analysis turns out wrong or right 3 to 6 months out and there is a reversal. if it is wrong then i have to rethink. if it turns out right then i'll feel good about getting it right.

Though not an economist I'm not convinced what you are describing is called a liquidity trap, nor can I see how a limited available amount of bitcoins in circulation diminishes the 'network effect'.  Would you care to elaborate?
 

i actually have to get back to writing a paper otherwise I would.  Anyway this is all conjecture at this point, I'll know in a few months when the tx and price data is available.

[ChartBuddy]

[gizmoh]

Google trends image. What exactly is fueling this rally? This tells me it's old money doing the same all over.

maybe there is a service called "baidu trends"?

Zero trade fees in china is fueling this pump/fake-rally.

FYI, price is higher on Gox than on btcchina,at least for today's rally. So its not only china's pump.

[ardana123]

Will the fact that everyone wants cheap coins prevent the price from tanking too far?

[mah87]

Will the fact that everyone wants cheap coins prevent the price from tanking too far?

I predict it will crash between 260 and 300$ . But I also predict it will reach 250$ easily. On what are based my predictions ? NOTHING !!