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Just after the news that BFL ASIC is coming
ASIC miners will increase the whole network hashing power a lot (so does difficulty), this will dramatically reduce the availability for BTC for average person, so either they invest in ASIC miner or use those money to buy BTC now
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My balcony rig, finally I managed to change the orientation of all the cards to be vertical, so that hot air will blow upwards, and cold air will be filled quickly from below, at the same time more snow/rain resistant (it is located under the roof, and have other cover, but sometimes snowflakes will make their way onto the motherboard, now it is vertical, much less risk) A benefit is that I can defroze food in the upper cage, very effective  The noise is still an issue, even after I lowered the voltage, fans still go above 3000 rpm in sunny days. Just ordered some arctic xtreme cooler, but that might nullify the benefit of this position  |
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A typical hedge fund operation: First accumulate large amount of BTC and drain the supply, and drive up the price, dump the BTC on the rise  |
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Some hedge fund has accumulated enough BTC at $5 level and now they are going to push the exchange price up. Due to limited supply, this push will be very effective, no one can stop it, and they will dump those BTC on the rise  |
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All value is backed by human demand, and since it has so many special characteristics, especially limited supply, there will be demand
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I'm willing to spend 30% of my BTC income forever, if that income is steady and sustainable
The biggest problem that no one use BTC is because they do not have BTC income directly, if companies start to give out BTC as salary, then it will make some sense
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I want to see the transparent glass over liquid ultra |
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Very good observation by OP, if we could continously add decimal places after each block reward drop, and BTC value doubles at the same time, then the amount of BTC value added each year will be constant
At the same time, it means that the existing BTC holders will get their holding value doubled at each block reward drop, which gives them even more incentive to hold BTC as an electronic medium of saving, and when they accumulated enough amount of BTC and go for retire, then they will get ever-increasing value of saving to spend
For example, if I'm holding 1000 BTC as my saving (worth 1million dollar in future), and every four years I spent half of them, then my consumption power will keep the same all the time
Then very natually, many pension fund will consider their investment in BTC, because the scarcity of this medium will make sure the value will be ever increasing, at least better than some government bonds, 100% return in 4 years are not bad
No matter what, BTC has the potential to bring some craziness, but first it has to gain more acceptance and understanding
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I also have coolant thermal pads, those 0.5mm pads should be used, white pads do not provide enough good performance.
Ok, I will try that tonight. By the way, for those white pads I used on RAM, I have to remove the non-sticky layer use a very sharp and thin knife, otherwise it is not enough thin and will make the GPU contact less reliable, I think the distance between RAM and sink is 0.6mm and distance between VRM and heat sink is 0.4mm, so those 0.5mm pads might not provide enough tight contact when used on RAM |
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One market maker is enough: Put sell order when price goes above $5.2 and buy order when price dropps below 5
Maintain the price and start to accumulate enough BTC, and try to push it towards $50, because the liquidity in BTC is so low and there is no regulation for BTC exchange, who knows what can happen...
I think the best time to push the price up is when block reward drops, we'll see...
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I also have coolant thermal pads, those 0.5mm pads should be used, white pads do not provide enough good performance.
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IMO, sooner or later, the larger player will be those who control the BTC exchange price (e.g. market maker), unless BTC can find it's own way to get rid of exchange rate dependency, it will still live as a controlled object of market makers
The easiness of use and benefit of BTC must be improved
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What if BTC exchange rate doubled when the block reward drops? Nothing happened?
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With enough amount of BTC reserve, a BTC Bank could issue their own BTC notes, thus create multiple supply of exchange medium...
I already addressed this in the past, e.g in the Bitcoin wiki article on FRB. Bitcoin is form-invariant, any medium that can store 64 bytes of data (=ECDSA keypair) can be used as Bitcoin. Since "BTC denominated notes" do not provide an advantage on transaction costs (unlike with systems based on gold, for example, because gold is not form-invariant and cannot exist in paper or electronic form), it would not be generally accepted as a medium of exchange. Similarly as sacks of grain in the weight of 5.5 tons would not be generally accepted as suitable alternative payment method instead of an ounce of gold, even if their market price might be the same (I roughly calculated it based on the current prices). On second thought... isn't this back to the old time that gold/silver were so scare that bankers produced their notes based on the amount of gold they have in their reserve?  Bankers didn't produce notes because gold/silver was scarce, but because the notes provided an increased benefit for the depositor (e.g. safer storage, smaller weight, etc), in other words they reduced their transaction costs. FRB came after the notes were already accepted as a medium of exchange and I find it doubtful that it can occur the other way around. EDIT: Based on what I read, historically, deposit accounts predated bank notes, but the situation is analogous to notes. Deposit accounts offer a ledger and other services, and with gold, this decreases transaction costs. With Bitcoin, the ledger is an integrated component and the other services are either already present or obsolete. No matter the form, the scarcity itself will make BTC more possibly to become the target of mortgage, and then many loan based on BTC will be issued, these loans will require increased currency supply, it's the same effect as FRB |
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Although not evil to lend BTC, people will not borrow BTC if they expect the value of BTC will rise, they tends to borrow the thing that is dropping in value
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Let's say that I have some BTC-denominated shares, and am short of BTC when I want to pay.
Oh my god, I see a brilliant idea here: BTC-denominated shares! With enough amount of BTC reserve, a BTC Bank could issue their own BTC notes, thus create multiple supply of exchange medium... On second thought... isn't this back to the old time that gold/silver were so scare that bankers produced their notes based on the amount of gold they have in their reserve? |
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You can watch this very natural set of property rules in their most basic form by watch toddlers in a playroom. Whoever has a particular toy and is presently playing with it 'owns' it for the moment, and any attempt by others to take it away will result in not just resistance, but cries for help. Yet, if the first child gets up and walks away from the toy, another could come in and take that toy and stake his new claim, and often expect it to be respected by the other kids and the adults alike. After all, it does come naturally.
I like this way to trace the origin of some human behavior, and have you noticed any differences between different children? Some might resist, some might not, some might take it by force, some might not, etc... |
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The best place for BTC to grow is virtual reality, and virtual world economy is going to be larger than physical world economy in the near future, just like software company outpacing hardware company
But the biggest problem today is that so few people have possibility to explore the beauty of the virtual world. They need top level display and graphic card and a game like Skyrim to be enough realistic to match the real world, they need lot's of computer knowledge, and some of them get motion sickness due to the poor display technology that we use today. Those problems have to be solved one by one, and by then virtual reality will become people's daily life
If there is a decentralized virtual reality world, then BTC will be adapted very quickly. As I know, second life is still centralized, maybe in the future a collaboration project combines best VR engine developers will make a basic framework
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This is history, you can not drive a car while looking at the back mirror
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I have a strong feel to drop that radiator into a lake during summer |
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