Well, the Giro is known for crazy stages and we still have 3 mountain stages plus an ITT. Add some bad weather and 3-4 minutes are not a lot. And we have a new round of Corona tests on tomorrows rest day....although during the week everyone was negative. But it's really a strange edition this year and we will most likely have a winner, who would have never won under normal circumstances. The field was pretty weak from the start, because most riders chose to do the Tour/Vuelta double this year (or just the Tour). And then the two best riders had to leave the Giro

The Vuelta will start on Tuesday btw with quite some climbing on first stage already.

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Lost. Castro did was he supposed to do and finished 8th, while TdG had one of his better days and only missed the podium by 2secs.

I am feeling pretty pathetic defending Schalke here (), but don't dwell on that lousy goal differential. They lost 0-8 @Bayern and 0-4 @Leipzig, it happens and Barca lost 2-8 to Bayern as well^^ And that streak is bad no doubt, but no team in this world with this quality keeps on not-winning for ages. And I didn't even say they will win today, but that Union will not win today and their odds are poor imo

I think today is a pretty good opportunity to start from scratch and forget about everything that has happened in the past. You had this UNL break, a new coach, a healthy team, maybe a bit of self-confidence after that test match....but feel free to put a bet on Union winning @2.5x. But don't say I didn't warn you afterwards

I am putting some money on the Browns tb the Steelers today This could turn out to be just a waste of money, but my gut feeling tells me, that this will be a very close one. Both teams didn't have that big test yet, so it's a bit hard to judge how good they really are. I liked what the Browns did in their last two games against Cowboys/Colts though, while the Steelers were a bit shaky against Texans/Eagles, if that makes any sense.

Looking forward to Bucs - Packers, where I think GB will get the W, but the odds look ok-ish for that to happen. And then we have two Shit-Bowls today with NYG-WAS and MIA-NYJ

Hehe, with this thinking I could have also placed a bet for Bayern winning 4-3 against Hertha and say Bayern could surprise us with a win in this game But it would be kind of a surpise (at least to me), if Union wins today, because I think the odds are wrong and Schalke should be favourite here today. Not by much; maybe reverse the odds and I would be fine with it So in that regard you are correct

Did you check the odds ? Union is favourite to win today, so where is the upset, if the favourite wins

I am in the same boat as @dwminer1 and think Schalke should get their first point(s) today. It's just about getting their act together, they have far better quality than the team from the capital. Yes, they have been poor thus far, but they played Bayern/Leipzig already (that loss against Bremen was poor though). Coach Baum had some more time to work with the team and in the last test match, they showed some signs of life by crushing Paderborn 5-1. If Schalke loses against Union as well, then I don't know......

I guess the bookies are having a good party today Germany was probably bad for them (Dortmund, Bayern, Leipzig, Leverkusen won), but in ITA1, ENG1 and ESP1 there were loads of surprises. Real, Barca, Liverpool, Chelsea, Juve all failed to win and some 2nd tier favourites (Sevilla, Lazio, Inter) also layed an egg.

I managed to get 1 point overall in the three pools I am participating

Yep, you are leading the pack atm - at least in here. I don't think anyone has 5 or even 6 right now, so there is hope for you, keeping my fingers crossed. Hitting that draw in Ajax game would be huge for you. Other than that a lot of red in the table, which is never good.



I am doing really good again, but I heard that SB gives 500mBTC to the user with the worst performance. It's a special for this week, jk

I think it's because it was the Bills' first real test and they failed badly. And as I said before, I am not sold on the Bills as well. They played Jets/Dolphins, which were must wins given how bad these teams are. Then only had a very narrow win against the Rams with a very late TD. And the Rams are 4-1, but they already played all NFC East teams That win against the Raiders was probably the only one, where you can say, ok, this was a very nice performance against what it seems a quite good football team this season. And then they get destroyed by the Titans.....now this is standard in NFL - any given Sunday - but Bills are overrated imo

It has gotten quiet here, but there is lots of sports going on all the time, so understandable


For the record, this one won easily. Ulissi won the stage and Almeida finished 6th on that day, Masnada 23rd.

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Today there will be a 34km ITT on a flat-ish course with only few climbing.

Castroviejo tb De Gendt @2.15

De Gendt says he can finish Top3, if he has the legs. I agree with that, but doubt he will be any good today. He was complaining a lot with all the Corona issues this Giro has. He feels unsafe, is worried with his family and thought more than once about leaving. So looks like he is not really focussed nor super keen on getting a good result here - and he was always a streaky rider. He can be very good or very bad. I hope we will see the bad TdG today on a course that suits Castroviejo better. The Spaniard himself isn't super reliable in ITT's, but can do very good on these kind of courses. Ineos is leading the team classification and need Castroviejo to do good (or at least push till the end). I think the bookmakers have the wrong favourite in this one.

I actually think that there is some value on Mainz not to lose, Leverkusen 1.60+ is a bit too low, should be more like 1.80+. Mainz did change their coach and had a horrible start to the season, but it was all because the coach lost the team. Mainz has good quality for their standards and at some point they will get their team spirit back, which is the point where they will start to collect some points again. Leverkusen is a bit worse than last years and have some problems upfront imo, which shows in only 2 goals scored thus far this season. Now it's not easy to score against Wolfsburg/Leipzig and they might explode offensively today, but I think Mainz has good chances to take at least 1 point here today.

For the Hoffenheim - Dortmund match, I was fancying Hoffenheim to manage a little upset, but they will miss Kramaric and he is probably the most important player in any team in Bundesliga right now. Without him, Dortmund will have a much easier time and odds are already dropping. Too bad.

Werder has lost their imo most important player in Klaassen as well, so will be interesting to see how they are doing without him. Odds for Freiburg are poor though, because Bremen has tremendous record when visiting the team from Black Forest in the last years, 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses.

All in all a round with not too many interesting bets/odds, lets see if there is something more interesting to find inplay

Here are the picks, some people are still missing, but this table is growing, welcome @mitchr4 :



Everyone thinks that PSG, Spurs and Roma will win. For the rest of the matches only 3 outcomes weren't picked: Chelsea draw, Heerenveen win, Valencia win. Looking at our past results, there was always at least one game, where everyone was wrong, so maybe take this information to place some bet^^ I am still waiting for two users having the exact same picks, but not the case this week as well.

Nimes got an early red card and PSG just made it 1-0 now. Hope they can bring it home

As always: Good luck

It does indeed in the overview for a league, which is a bit confusing I agree, but the specific markets have the same layout as other exchanges:


Source: https://exbet.io/market/1.24.3797

I am waiting for the day you come here without advertising your exchange in the Exbet thread, it's so obvious 

I would say Baseball/MLB is unbetable (sp ?), but did you ever think about why it is so unpredictable ? I thought about that very often, when I was following MLB some years ago and occasionally bet on it - but never with high stakes fortunately. Till now, this for me is still the hardest sport/league to bet on and I had bets on basically anything in my life.

I came to this conclusion in no particular order:

1) There are too many games.

162 regular season games in a span of 6 months - thats 27 games per month, phew. If you have such many games, there is lots of room for error and one single game/loss doesn't matter. As such, the players don't bother with losing games, since you will have the next game just around the corner, where you can win again. I am a firm believer that every professional athlete, no matter how rich, has a lot of idealism in him and hates to lose. But if you do something day in day out for 6 months, this eagerness to compete and win deadens a bit. So you just go out, do your stuff and check the scoreboard after 9 innings. If you win, fine, if not, fine as well, tomorrow is the next game.

2) There are no secrets.

The MLB (and all other major sports in US) is very well covered. There is no stat you can think of that is not publicly available, you have media coverage of all happenings 24/7, you can watch every game live and every little news that could influence the outcome spreads like a wildfire - so how can you get an edge betting on MLB as a single person or even a group working together ?!

3a) Baseball is a game of luck.

I mean short-term here, but this a bold and debatable statement Longterm the better teams come out on top, but the result of a single game is often a product of very little details.
This starts with the refs having their individual strike zone, which is part of the game since ages, but kind of pathetic in these digital times. And believe it or not, it's priced into the odds as well.
The result of a batter hitting the baseball and what comes out of it is a matter of millimetres and I doubt that even the best batters have that much control over it. They swing and maybe hit, but if they hit the baseball in the sweet spot or 1mm higher or lower is just luck. Thus you as a punter never know when luck strikes (no pun intended) and you have a homerun or just another easy out for the opponent. And even the players do not know, so how should you.

3b) The difference in quality is not very big.

Most teams are pretty evenly matched, in contrast to NFL or NBA for example. I don't know why this is the case, because there are so many players and theoretically the more players the bigger the difference in quality. Maybe it's because there is only one skill position (Pitcher) and the other positions can be learned and mastered relatively easy ?

These two points are also the reason, why you rarely see odds under 1.50 in MLB, anything can happen in any game due to the above.

4) The odds are very well compiled.

This is also a result of point 2 and the huge databases - also from the past - Vegas has available. In general I don't think there is lots of value to be found in Baseball odds. Beating the vig is already a huge challenge, although it's not really big in MLB. Beating the vig and making some profit on top is nearly impossible, if we look yield-wise at least. You can for sure generate lots of turnover with all those gazillions of games and high betting limits, but you will most likely have to work with something around the 1% mark or even lower. Not sure if thats worth all the hassle you have to go through by trying to be successful in MLB - and you better know what you are doing, i.e. treat this as a full-time job, when creating lots of turnover in MLB.

Don't worry with that, most of us don't do that good as well most of the time and it's really not easy. I added you to the tables, welcome to the family

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Here are the all-time stats with week 41 updated:

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And my picks for the weekend:

Olympique Nimes - Paris Saint-Germain FC
Granada FC - Sevilla FC DRAW
Everton FC - Liverpool FC
TSG Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund
Chelsea FC - Southampton FC
Inter Milano - AC Milan DRAW
Ajax Amsterdam - SC Heerenveen
Olympique Marseille - FC Girondis Bordeaux DRAW
Sheffield United FC - Fulham FC
AS Monaco FC - Montpellier HSC DRAW
Villarreal FC - Valencia FC
Tottenham Hotspur FC - West Ham United FC
Leicester City FC - Aston Villa FC
AS Roma - Benevento Calcio
Real Betis - Real Sociedad DRAW

What would SB do without Betis, Valencia, Real Sociedad and Montpellier ? Can't stand to see these teams all the time in the MM

Interesting stat: Dortmund didn't win @Hoffenheim since 2012 All in all they only managed to win there twice, since Hoffenheim promoted to Bundesliga in 2008. Hoffenheim is 5-5-2 against Dortmund at home all-time. And they had some success @Dortmund as well, grabbing a win and points here and there and keeping the score close when losing as well.

Some crazy results today, but the lack of bets/posts already shows that no one is really interested in this competition, which is a good thing. The less interest, the more likely this stupid thing will be history again

Germany (@1.50) unable to beat Switzerland, Ukraine (@10.0) beat Spain, Liechtenstein (@1.23) was unable to score against poor San Marino, Malta (@6.5) got the better off Latvia, Luxembourg (@4.5) takes three points in Montenegro - there was some money to be made today. Only small Faroe Islands did get the favourites job done today

One more day to go tomorrow and then we will be done with it.....for some weeks, since next matchdays are already in around one month, wtf

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Ginter They are missing good central defenders imo who are also in sync like Hummels/Boateng were for a long time. Rüdiger I never liked and Süle is just a poor mens Boateng; offensively they come nowhere close to what Hummels/Boateng could do with long precise passes and the presence they had. Tah is good, but Löw doesn't like him I think. At least it's often quite entertaining to watch Germany nowadays.

Even the bookmakers seem to have forgotten about this match - still no HC's available. Scam books 1xbet/Melbet have them and the -4.5 already went down and at these odds it's not really worth to bet on it. Maybe inplay

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Some funny scenes in Osnabrück from 2. Bundesliga take place. They had two positive players and now 19 players have to quarantine ordered by local health authorities in Lower Saxony. They are scheduled to play against Darmstadt on Sunday and odds for the team from Hesse have dropped quite a lot already. So far the DFL didn't cancel/postpone the game and as of now it looks like it is taking place according to schedule. So if anyone wants to jump in, Darmstadt is still 2.20+ in some places.

But be careful, since local authorities might lift the order (none of the quarantined players is positive and/or showing any symptoms) and then it's just the preparation, which is affected a bit; this 2.20+ has no value then. Better not overstake initially In the end this will get postponed I think.....

Why do you think this is risky, if you choose a proven and trustworthy agent who has been around for ages ? Where is the additional risk in comparison to placing your bets directly in a bookmaker ?

These agents make good money, so there is no point in scamming customers for them. They have lots of highrollers betting via them and will get a good share of the turnover/losses. And in addition they get some extra money with deposit/withdrawal fees.
I personally never had any issue with an agent. They are available nearly 24/7, also via Skype, and ususally respond to any inquiry inside minutes. Can't say anything bad - if you choose the right one.

They don't have to, they chose to Just like 90% of all the other teams from lower divisions in first round as I posted already here back then. It's due to all the Corona hygiene requirements, which cost some money and you only have very few spectators allowed to attend, if any. So no revenue from ticket sales and you would probably even sit at a loss overall. This is quite an issue for all these small teams this year, for whom even 50k profit is a lot.

The markets didn't price the change of home advantage in and most teams beat the HC. Kiel won 7-1 and Leverkusen 7-0, so it was 6 bets won, 2 lost, one push.

In Bayern odds it's maybe priced in, but not sure tbh, there are just too many uncertainties with Bayerns squad to judge correctly.

Bayern will play their postponed cup match on Thursday against Düren from 5th division. This game has been squeezed into the schedule in the midst of lots of players being on international duty. As a lot of other first round games, the lower division team forfeited their home advantage and this one will take place in Munich at Allianz Arena. Bayern will miss loads of players, basically all their starting XI and still I think that Bayern will dominate this one. Their new signings (Choupo-Moting, Roca, Sarr, Costa) will want to prove themselves and you still have Müller, Boateng etc. who stayed at Munich.

Düren has been doing really good in Oberliga this season being 3-0-0. It looks like some of their games were postponed, because other teams played already six matches. They didn't play last round as well - maybe it was postponed for Corona issues, couldn't find anything about it -  and thus had their last competitive match 2.5 weeks ago, which could prove disadvantageous.

It's still missing HC bets for this one in 99.99% of bookmakers, but -4.5 should be doable even for this very mixed up Bayern team. Motivated Costa & Choupo-Moting plus Müller will be too much for Düren in the end I hope

Hehe, yes, I feel you, I had this gazillion times already. You make a parlay and think nothing can go wrong.....it happens, don't worry too much with it....Raiders really a huge surprise. If this was played in Vegas, I could have imagined a Raiders win, but away at Kansas is quite an accomplishment; KC has owned them in the last years, 12-2 since 2013, 7-0 @home.

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Seems like Prescott is done for the season with a broken ankle, that looked horrible and I really feel bad for him Red Rifle is taking over for the Cowboys now, NFC East getting worse and worse.....