I think it is just gonna range trade for a while.  The range is wider now because everyone is on edge, but it will vol-squeeze into another leg up eventually. Just guessing, yo.

I had might as well short some DASH with those BTC.  No way my 0118 low-ball bid is gonna fill with that 0123 wall there.

I am sufficiently sleep deprived so that anything I say is pretty questionable and only semi-coherent.

That said, I was thinking: If DNMs are 3bn and have a velocity of 12, the whole market could be supplied by 62mm of market cap.  Supposing 1/4 of the XMR outstanding actually floats, the whole dnm economy would run on a 246mm market cap, so the exchange is clearly as though XMR is going to denominate more than a third of DNMs, within a negligible discounting period.  That seems way optimistic to me.  Either my float or velocity factors are way off, or a large part of the marketcap is froth.  Not that it can't get frothier.  It certainly can, and I think it will.  In 2013 the same estimate would have priced BTC on the basis of a DNM economy 1/3 as large, yet we know that SR drove it to $1bn market cap, about 12x what similar multipliers would have implied.  So 10% of AB would mean 24.6mm * 12 = 295mm marketcap for XMR, or about $25/XMR.

A third SWAG, also coinciding with the other two SWAGS.  

I think the probabilistic logic of confounding SWAGs is something like the inverse of the product of the inverses.  So suppose I assign each SWAG a 10% probability.  p = 1-(1-.10)^3 = .27

So there's about a 1 in 4 chance that XMR will trade at $25 this year, because magic.  Need...more...SWAGS...

It's pretty hard to believe, but 100k of XMR just got offered.

These alt-coin speculators have been burned and scammed so many times, they are functionally insane.  Like an abused child adopted by a caring family, they just can't cope with the concept of real value.

Well, it had to happen.  We need to stabilize around 012 for a bit before we can take another leg up, otherwise Rangedriver will have underestimated.  And that could never happen, as we know.

So call me an addict, but I think I'll bid a few k at 1180ksat, in case it dips a bit.

It takes both momentum and inverse liquidity to do it.  A monotonic function of momentum / liquidity.  Another way to frame it:  A monotonic function of in-range order book imbalance.

Yes.  I have seen reports (not really analyses) to the effect that as much as 1:10 flow:delta was seen in btc during the Willy events of 2013/2014.

I guess that price leverage ratio is a monotonic function of ...what... momentum?

During these episodes of manic euphoria I distrust my own judgement.  My gut instincts fail, and I have to rely on system 2.

What is the upside limit?  The available btc seems to constitute a limit.  How can we estimate the proportion of the btc which might flow into XMR?  Consider that maybe 10% of bitcoin core own some XMR.  Maybe twice that number of btc holders want XMR, and maybe they will risk 20% of their btc...  By slight of hand I conclude that XMR might be able to command 4% of btc market cap in the long run, just on the basis of current bitcoin holders, without a huge change of circumstances, given the right amount of time.

Suppose non-bitcoin holders want XMR.  Unless they are in the u.k. almost surely they will sign up for some btc/fiat exchange, take days or weeks to verify, buy some btc, fumble around, and eventually get on poloniex.  (Watch poloniex wallet addresses!). I expect a lot of lightly crypto-exposed people who sat out btc to buy in over the next few weeks.  But btc has had years of recruitment, and the absolute numbers are small, relative to the current holders.  Probably new crypto users are less significant to reserve use, and more significant to DNM traffic stats, and will make themselves felt on the traffic and speculation driven by that traffic, rather than on the volume of btc they spend on XMR.

Overall these vague and fuzzy reasonings are consistent with other vague and fuzzy reasonings which I expressed elsewhere, that I expect XMR to trend around $25 in 2017...in that case conditionalized on 10% of DNM traffic being denominated in XMR.

Usually when SWAGs derived by different methods coincide, I give their common estimate a lot more weight.  Not twice as much...more like the second power on some unbounded likelihood scale.  Funny, I haven't thought about the probabilistic logic of that before.   I should do.

Yes, I've been watching that.  And it is a watershed.  Now all the DASH bagholders start to jump ship.  All the DASH marketcap starts to flow into XMR. 

We may surpass LTC marketcap this year.  It could happen.

Infinite divisibility voids this assertion.

Gotta say it: please move speculation talk to the speculation thread.

Devolutionary. http://youtu.be/CR3KTg3jhFk
Devolve the power to the people!


In other news, XMR seems to be flagging....bull flagging.  *tssh*

No sleep 'til litecoin!

https://g.co/kgs/SnPmXu

Short into that, bears. Mouthafrackah.  Let's do some price discovery.

I am guessing here, but I am thinking it won't stabilize until .012 is the mark, ranging about 0.011 - 0.0125.  Probably, Monday.

You can never have too much overkill.  

Given that Intel firmware could be doing anything, the next step up in security would be to use open hardware (raspberry pi?), and bypass the printer.  Just generate the keys, record the address, viewkey and seeds redundantly on archival paper with indelible pen, and wipe everything.  I have infinitely more confidence in open hardware than I do in anything with "trusted computing" features.  

Paranoid much? Odd numbered seed words go in safe deposit boxes on two continents.  Even numbered seed words go in two boxes on two other continents.  Now at least two continents must be compromised to DoS your funds.   Or you could steg the seed words into some books that will be stocked in libraries, if you are truly an elite master.  Arxiv.org doesn't have nearly the redundancy of physical libraries.

It's pretty cool to get off a 45 minute flight, get a cafe mocha on ice with Bailey's at the skyclub, turn on the phone and find your largest asset is worth 16% more than it was when you last checked at the afternoon picnic.  I recommend the experience.

In the u.s. everyone is a felon.  Read "Three Felonies a Day".  It's a huge part of the urgent need for privacy.

I suggest that we all refrain from prompting anyone to act in a prima facie unlawful manner.  If one errs in such a way, it is reasonable to delete comments to correct the record, or to amend the comments with a clarification.

Rolling your own can be better if you are talking about complexity getting dragged in with the standard component.  If you need something simple, it is often possible to achieve exceptional levels of confidence in the correctness if the component when you control it.  You can use declarative systems which are provable, and compile into c++, for example.  The upstream being uncontrolled adds a maintenance issue, but it is a much lower-order factor.

What is the preferred venue for such threads?

Endorsed.  If someone is able to troll you, get your goat, it is often best to click the "ignore" link.  You will enjoy a longer and more pleasant life. And so will I.

I think most have slapper on ignore, so it's hard for me to think of him as part of the community.  But I suppose he is, just as the sewer is part of the city, but we don't think about it unless it overflows.

your "realism" seems unduly pessimistic.  0055 seems quite unreachable to me unless a large holders decides to divest some significant % of the float - which seems insanely stupid to do unless they have significant private information.

We seem to have found the stability you desired, but at the 007-0075 range, instead.

My own realism was pretty good - I had estimated this level previously - until the last high spike which was so strong that I reset my expectations to the unrealistically high 012 stabilization level.  Clearly I should have resisted the manic euphoria of that last move, in order to reason accurately.  Live and learn.

012 will probably be the next stable level, however, unless traffic is unexpectedly high in the first week of September.  I don't think it will be.

https://www.deepdotweb.com/2016/06/06/german-police-arrests-marketplace-user-bought-weed-silk-road-years-ago/