Make something Wrong look Right

Socrates looks to me like the mirror image of the human psyche when it comes to arguing.

People have an opinion, a bias, and they do not like being proven wrong. So to support their point of view, they like picking facts or pseudo facts to support their view, ignoring other facts.

Likewise, Socrates, to be always right, provides multiple conflicting outcomes out of the box. Irrational, biased, or unscientific people can pick what they want. Socrates is always right. However, the markets do not agree with that, so at the end of the day, Socrates is losing, and the people using it are losing.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

There are multiple ways of interpretation, ambiguity.

We can however let the computer decide which reading is best - read the report:

Considering all timing factors, there is a possibility of a rally moving into Wed. 26th with the opposite trend thereafter into Thu. 27th (NOTE: this can be intraday or on a closing basis).


I have done that. Statistically, the array interpretation offered by the reports is wrong more often than not.

I tried to improve the reliability of the system by considering this array interpretation in case of elected reversal failure. I was surprised to find that in case of failure, most of the time, the arrays were also wrong, so no gain there.

The hope that there is some fundamental truth in the arrays is the problem not the inability to explain them.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

My experience is that this type of move is not predictable by a system based on technical analysis and its variants such as used by Socrates. As I wrote earlier, Socrates is only one-dimensional, processing exclusively the time series / past history of a single market. Why would we think that the information of when the Federal Reserve is going to discuss a rate cut is hidden in the past values of that data, AND that this can trigger a profitable trading signal in Socrates? The Fed message is what caused the market to turn. Nothing to do even with Europe or conflict in the Middle East. We did not even have conflict. Otherwise crude oil would have gone through the roof. The shooting down of the drone was a piece signal because it made it clear that there is no easy way for the US to gain air superiority and collect target information as it did with the U2 planes in Iraq, and the US reacted accordingly.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I cannot comment on timing signals at the moment.

Weekly bearish 11310, date elected 2019-06-14 close 11212, 2019-06-21 close 11373 1.4% loss

If you trade it for a week only. If you trade longer then the loss is greater of course.

Sell the low buy the high. Reversals do not work most of the time, because most of the time, the market is not moving up or down long enough.

I would need to be suicidal to use Socrates to trade currencies. Currencies do not move long enough with large enough vertical differences. Experience shows that Socrates gets whip-sawed with no end in sight.

Contrary to what the name implies, the reversal system cannot predict reversals in the price movement. It has an extreme detection mechanism which works only after a high or low is confirmed which is not prediction but after the fact. But then even this is not reliable.

Armstrong did not say which model on which time frame detected anything at what time. He has a recent post where Socrates detected the breakout in Gold in the daily time frame. But that is not prediction, and is trivial technical analysis. After the fact it is easy to say. He makes things up as he goes. As far as I remember, Armstrong has been predicting for a long time a USD rally not a EURO rally.

Another trouble is that this contraption contains so many "models" each of them may contradict each other at many levels, creating ambiguity. Armstrong can always say one of those models predicted something because he just needs to pick the right one. As we can see, he doesn't even care any more to give details.

This ambiguity goes so far as that a weekly ELECTED reversal needs to be traded in the OPPOSITE direction if a monthly non-elected reversal, in the middle of the month is nearby. See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51535653#msg51535653 .You need to be an idiot to believe that you can make consistent trading decisions based on this mess.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

For you, we are going to build a pocket calculator with "AI" written on it. With that you can "play the numbers game". That pocket calculator will, for each calculation, put out multiple results to choose from. That will keep you happy for a while.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Thanks.

I wonder how many know how to search with google any pages excluding at armstrongeconomics.com


Socrates armstrong scam -site:armstrongeconomics.com

With this search, bitcointalk is on top of the list.


So as a start, we would want to use this site to link to any new site, getting some fairly good traction.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I am not sure whether there needs to be a dramatic outcome. I hope that in our information age, things get taken care of automatically as long as people are not asleep at the wheel. Honesty and integrity need to be defended, and this needs a systematic approach and some style. I am really encouraged by what has been uncovered in this blog.

But this alone is only the first step. The information in his blog needs to be put into a different format, away from this site where it can be quoted and not messed around with. There are many facts. This is not just opinion.

We need a level playing field. Obviously this blog is open to both sides, but Armstrong has the advantage of full censorship of his own site. We need a counterweight to that.

Otherwise, Martin Armstrong will become a legend for future generations of wishful thinkers to come. Like William Delbert Gann who never made any money trading, only by selling his courses.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

How big is it really?

I remember having read this years ago:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/institutional-time-share/

We have constructed the First Fully Functioning Artificial Intelligence System Correlating the Entire World Economy 7 days a week, 24 hours per day. There is simply nothing like this model in the financial world.

Our actual annual cost just in energy to run such a system is in excess of $6 million.


That would be be roughly 1/30 of Google's computer systems consumption in 2014.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

These questions MUST of course be asked. First, if for example, we use 3 periods to trade, then on election of a reversal we need to skip the next 3 periods before we elect any new reversals to avoid double-counting.

The other possibility is that we allow to trade an unlimited number of positions, and that is perhaps similar to what we see in the reports. In this case, we need to set aside a substantial amount of cash, limiting profit potential.

However, in the reports, the number of positions runs very high, so they are perhaps not closed after 3 periods in this case.

Unfortunately, Socrates does not have any published reproducible rules; all is subject to human interpretation. But as we continue here, I am willing to just go along with what comes up in this discussion, just for fun.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Interesting. I like your contributions. We can debate constructively based on them.

We are making money if we are trading 3 periods while we are losing money if we are trading 1 period.

So what have we done here? We cherry-picked. We like the 3-period result more (after the fact) so we choose that and then we are winning.

Next time we are doing this in a different market, or in a different time of the year we are finding that the 2-period result is the winner and the 1-period result and the 3 period result are the losers. Then we pick the 2-period result and we are again winning.

We are always winning.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I assume you would want to make that call whether to abort the trade before the end of the trading period, in this case a single day session. Like sell the intraday high or buy the intraday low? Great.

To do so, you would need to know the future to know whether the price will go further in the same direction.

Since we do not have a crystal ball, that is not possible.

Trading based on the value of yet another reversal as you say is even mode dubious.

The simple reason is this:

IF we wanted to trade any way based on another reversal, then we would need to have the confidence that that other reversal can be relied on. There is no reason to believe that the next reversal is more reliable than the current one, because as the statistics show, the success rate is only 40%. So following your principle, one would not be more successful but LESS successful, losing even more money faster. That is because the failures accumulate not cancel each other out.

With all the information available like technical analysis, momentum, energy, timing, all available in a single report, one would expect that this objective test method would find that the Socrates comes out with a signal that produces at least a break even result statistically.

You don't even now what logic is let alone arithmetic. Calling a series of test results, with a clearly indisputable objective and clearly indisputable results a joke proves that you are incompetent beyond any doubt. At the very minimum, any of your users who took the time to painfully create statistics will be thoroughly alienated by your dismissive statements.

The Socrates system should provide any such statistics as part of the service so everyone can verify the system. This should end this discussion immediately. So upgrade the system and show that the users are wrong. Anything else is just cheap talk against thorough analysis.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

This Socrates system, after we exposed it here as a failure, a scam, will not last for long.

It would be nice to see the source code published so that people can see why it doesn't work from that perspective.

Hopefully, Armstrong's failures will be documented in a lasting fashion, in such a way that he cannot become a legend for future generations of naive people who might be mystified by "his" ideas, and potentially wanting to re-create this system.

Everyone can have ideas. Ideas are cheap. But to make ideas work, that is a different matter. Armstrong has copied many original ideas from others and claimed they are his own. He uses them to keep his blog busy.

There is no productive outcome. Only wishful thinking. We are looking at a complete train wreck.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Well spotted!
In this case, which is different again, Socrates does not have any more reversals for you to trade because the reversal system is exhausted at that extremely bearish point. So to keep the show running, it creates a phantom reversal which SOCRATES trades (without telling you in time) to look profitable. You look in the rear vision mirror and say "Hang on, it is there, but I didn't see it coming". You could not trade this zero risk trade, and you miss the profit. Again, it is a REVISION SIGNAL

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

because Socrates decides to do this only AFTER the fact, borrowing from the future. In other words, these phantom reversals ALWAYS show as being profitable - they cannot fail because they are generated after the future close price is known, but ONLY if the future price is below the previous price. So here we have the user manual discrediting the system it describes.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

In this sub-thread we now have discovered THREE additional ambiguities / back doors for perfect denial:

1) Signals marked as success in the reports that cannot be traded (Socrates traded but user did not get a signal)
2) "What if" reversal
3) Back-tracking the entire service integrity by claiming work in progress
4) Fully charging for a service still under construction

Thank you for clarifying this Mr Martin Armstrong - we know this is you because only you make all mistakes, deny all of them and then walk away laughing.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

This is not something to laugh about.

Then it is a Revision Signal because if it is as you say, we receive it after the market is closed, in the next report and the reversal cannot be traded for its duration because the following day, half the period is already over. Why does such a reversal disappear the moment it is created, and why is such special signal not accounted for as such in the report? Instead it is treated the same as if it was a reversal that the user could have traded as any other.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Gumbi could you please provide us with the link of any article where Martin Armstrong defines a rule where in the middle of the month a monthly bearish reversal with a value below the price at end of week negates the due election of a weekly bearish reversal.

This is your scenario.

We should at least have a rule for that, and it would be a great opportunity for us to learn from it.

If you can't do that, then you are an even greater crackpot than Martin Armstrong.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Martin Armstrong in a Bind

Since the release of Socrates, the results of his reversal system are relatively more transparent. The ambiguity can be discussed here immediately for everyone to see. The price is relatively cheap.

In contrast, the reports are much more expensive, and they have a flair of exclusivity around them.

Most clients would have bought the reports for the reversals contained in them. The reports are typically only for specific markets such as metals (Silver, Gold, Platinum).

So who is going to buy the reports when the key information and more is already available in Socrates while the reports are out of date very quickly?

The idea comes to mind that the reversals, because they are tipping points given ahead of time, are a legacy now which was useful for the inclusion of printed reports published yearly or half-yearly at best.

Contemporary users who are accustomed to real-time information naturally struggle with this type of legacy system which has a substantial overhead in many ways that appears to be unnecessary today.

I guess that Martin Armstrong is now between a rock and a hard place where nobody wants to buy his reports any more, and online users are dissatisfied with the outdated batch character, complexity and ambiguity of the online system.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

For you we are going to build a pocket calculator that gives 5 different results to choose from.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Martin Armstrong is a Sensationalist

Martin promptly wrote a private blog entry about "Gold & The Pop to 1397" "in a burst of strength on the back of war"

There is nothing actionable in this post. The usual blather ending with "Therefore, the closing for June will be very critical" and Full details are provided on the Pro version

President Donald Trump said Thursday that the Iranian shootdown of an American drone may have not have been intentional, but a "mistake" by someone "stupid."

Shooting down unmanned surveillance drones is hardly a war event these days. Did we have an escalation of war after Turkey recently shot down a manned Russian fighter jet, killing the pilots? No.

Sure, Gold is up as we know, but perhaps as much as a side effect of the USD declining, coinciding with Gold touching resistance, which may just have caught short sellers speculating on a reversal. I am not saying whether Gold will rise or fall. I don't know.

So what is this then? I would say:

Promotion of the Socrates Pro version on the back of a Gold Rally and War Hysteria

As he says: Follow the Money!

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain