We are supposed to discuss his private blogs .why do this website keep blabbering about those side topics that don't benefits anyone
??
Martin cannot be right all the time because he does not use the time factor ..but he is right generally on the broad side .major reversal signal. That should give traders an edge. Big trades are made only a few time a year.
Since the latest post from ArmstrongEconomics.com is on Wolrd War 3 (Again), and he happened to put out a Cycle of War report which I got from my friend in 2013/2014, let us review his long-term forecast record:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/world-war-iii-2024-2027/I'm taking just snippets from his report from 2013. Most of the timeframe covered has already expired, and so there is no longer any viable value in whatever I put out here:
First and foremost, Armstrong said that the wavelength for the cycle of war is about 25 years. This is available on his public blog, where he shows 25 years between WWI (1914), WWII (1939), Tonkin Guilt (1964), China Tienanmen event (1989). From the last event, he added 25, and he got to 2014.
And then, giving himself quite some leeway, he said that the intensity of war/civil unrest will pick up from year 1 (2014) to year 6 (2019), peaking at the final two years. That covers 6 years out of 25 years of the cycle length of war. I could kind of understand his year 1 to year 6, since he kind of mimic the timeline from past WW, which is kind of over by then. Below is the quote from his report:
As the economy declines in Europe, we will see this anti-foreigner atmosphere spread among Eurozone members against other members. The year 2016 should be the start of a nasty economic decline.
....
We could see things get real bad during the 2016-2020 economic decline as capital flees public
sectors and we face serious local defaults on debts both in Europe and the United States.
The peak of the next 8.6 Year Wave on the ECM is lining up with the possible 26 year low in
the Euro where we could see also the high in gold.
The above boldface is mine. So where is the NASTY economic decline, when we are in year 2019?
This year is supposedly the final year in the highest intensity for Armstrong's war cycle. Just tell me how it feels from 2014 to 2019 in terms of civil unrest & war?
But amazingly, charlatan Martin Armstrong continues on his War Cycle in the latest post:
The War Cycle is turning up and we are looking at a possible peak "as early as" 2027. This is why I have been concerned about the economic crisis in 2021-2022. Once the economy turns down, it will be the fuel for the war.
We must also respect that this particular cycle is the combination of both civil and international unrest.
So let's analyze a little bit.
1. He said "as early as" 2027. That means if in 2027 nothing happens, he is not wrong. He doesn't say how late it will be, but we all know that war cycle length is 25 years, which is basically from 2014 to 2039 for a full cycle. SUPPOSEDLY based on his War report, the most intense year is 2019, starting from 2014. WOW, I mean, that is quite OFF, especially for a cycle length of just 25 years. Why is he changing to 2027? He thinks nobody remembers?
2. Then he repeats about "THE economic crisis". But he SAID the economic decline was from 2016. Now it's 2019, and stocks are near all-time high. Euro didn't collapse. But he again push the time-frame further into future to 2021-2022. Did you know that if you repeat the same thing over and over again, you will eventually get it right? But TIMING is the key to profitable trades.
3. At last, he tries to cover more ground by mentioning that it's both civil and international unrest.
The War Cycle report was 72 pages long, with 0.5 page of incorrect "forecast", and 71.5 pages of past history. That low percentage is always true for all of Armstrong's pricey "historical" reports.
In any case, apparently, Armstrong does NOT understand what it means by CYCLE. A cycle has a HIGH and a LOW. Once the cycle completes, if it started at the HIGH, it goes back to HIGH. That's a completed CYCLE. Since his war cycle is 25 years, and he pins it at 1914/1939/1964/1989/2014, by the time that you are HALF-WAY through the cycle, the war intensity should be at the LOW side. Assuming the the LOW happens exactly at mid-way, that will be 2026.5.
But charlatan Armstrong is saying that 2027 as the peak, when in his War Cycle Report, he clearly stated that it's from 2014 to 2019, peaking at the 6th year.
HOW CAN the war cycle low becomes the HIGH intensity?
Oh, that is just another cycle inversion that he forgot to mention, I tell you. Anytime that Armstrong is WRONG, he always has a term for it. Don't worry. That is his "great" forecasting record.
