WOW!!!!!  I quickly looked at the information behind the above link.

The idea of that free introductory course to bitcoin and even a completion certificate including presentation of course materials and talking points by Stephan Livera (who has been a pretty articulate bitcoin advocate in recent years) might be worthy of its own bitcointalk thread.

I would surely subscribe to such a thread if it were created.. and also just by superficially looking at that front page, I am tempted to take such a free introductory bitcoin course myself, but I would like to hear about what other (perhaps normies or more newbies to bitcoin) think about taking that particular course, too...

Some of those calculations regarding sacrifices seem to be purposeful.. and yeah population reduction is discussed amongst folks in power circles (TPTB) - and it's difficult to imagine that there are not considerations that culling the herd might be better/preferable as compared with feeding the masses..

Within capitalistic ideas that even seem to run through communist societies too, there seem to be some underlying conceptual framework in which it is considered preferable that some folks live in dire and/or starving circumstances because otherwise whose going to clean the toilets and perform some of the grunge work that the elites do not want to do.. even the bitcoiners have tendencies to look at the world in similar kinds of ways and consider that either the nocoiners or the late to the party coiners (currently known as precoiners) are going to be the ones cleaning the toilets.


Not everyone has the same agenda... and I am not even sure if bitcoin fixes this.. even though it seems to take quite a bit of the corruption out of the money printing angle.. so in that sense, many of us like to speculate that since bitcoin is for friends and enemies, there aren't real needs to trust one another or to coordinate matters, but fixing some of the monetary incentives by making money less corrupt will help to at least level some aspect of the playing field, even if fixing the money incentives does not resolve all problems and the various ways that people have differing agendas and try to figure out ways in which they are able to get advantages (perhaps sometimes at the expense of others) ... 

It's not really contrary to bitcoin in which everyone is allowed to attempt to pursue his/her own self interests through whatever means necessary.. and sure some kinds of behaviors are still going to be frowned upon and punishment is still going to get dished out, even if the libertarians believe that somehow government is going to disappear.. yeah right.   


If you have not gotten the memo... we do not pump/shill projects (shitcoins) in this here thread..   

If you want to talk about bitcoin in these here parts, then that's another story..

I was debating about whether to report your dumbass lame shilling post or just to send a friendly-reminder within a long-shot chance that you may have not known any better...  yes.. a long shot.. but still I can sometimes be "kind" and "caring" like that.. #nohoomo

Pretty much POW is bitcoin..  it's the whole damned invention.

So, yeah, "those of us who are against bitcoin would like to uninvent bitcoin."

Good luck with that.

Dream on.

Do they really believe that people are so stupid?  Surely there are a decent number of the masses who do not know that the fuck is bitcoin, so they do not even realize that there would be some disadvantages to society if bitcoin were to be uninvented (if that were even to be possible.. dumb fucks... sorry about the French, but at the same time, not).

By the way, I do appreciate and recognize a variety of other innovations within bitcoin such as the difficulty adjustment, nodes choosing the software to run, scarcity (through the halvening) and all that, but still POW is the foundational invention upon which the various other smaller innovations were built.


It does seem that the better of case of scenarios would be to get a reversal.. at least a sign that we are no longer in a bear cycle within about 2 months... and a more plausible scenario would be that it takes a wee bit longer than 2 months.. .. maybe even up to 5 months?  too bearish?  I am not sure. 

So yeah.. one thing is maybe getting some confidence that the bottom is in -  whether that would be $25,401 that we have so far or some other number that hopefully would not be much lower than $25,401.

Then the other part of the question would be that once the bottom has been established to be in.. then the consideration regarding how much of a movement we are going to get towards the UPpity.. and surely it would would seems strange if we were going to have to wait all the way until the 2024 halvening to get a new ATH.. so maybe in that sense our historical cycles are getting a kind of feeling of being screwed up no matter how this plays out - even though for sure, there are peeps wanting to frame where we are at in terms of either the past cycle topping off in April 2021 or November 2021 - but even those framings are not exactly coming off with a lot of conviction..,.. or convincingness.. at least not so far...

There could be a scenario in which we still end up getting a delayed blow off top that would come in 2023 - and perhaps that could save the cycle with a mere delayed blow off top... but since we have been stuck below the 100 week moving average for coming on two weeks, even that delayed blow off top proposed way forward comes off as a wee bit of such a long-ish shot that it starts to diverge into a kind of fantasy-seeming perspective.

Perhaps the coming 2-3 weeks are critical^tm in terms of seeing what happens in respect to testing further possible down passed our so far $25,401 bottom... perhaps? perhaps? 

Personally, I am hardly going to be happy even with getting back above the 100-week moving average (which is still currently slightly moving UPpity on daily basis at nearly $35.5k). .. .maybe mid-to-upper $40ks would feel better to confirm that we can proclaim that the "bottom is in" presuming that it does not end up going lower than $25,401.. which may well be a decently-sized presumption... otherwise, getting back into categorizing us as being in a bull market might need to get at least into the $50ks.. but it seems way to premature for this cat to be going down that road because I prefer to NOT really get too heavily into proclamations about where we are going that end up being more than one leg into the future... and getting back into a bull market classification seems to be around three legs into the future, at least from how I am currently thinking about where we are at how we got here, and where we might be going.

You are presuming a fact that does not exist.

If no one wants to invest into bitcoin or inject capital into bitcoin, then the presumption is that bitcoin goes to zero, and I would be stuck with whatever amount of value that I had invested.

I will agree with you Snowshow, that anything is possible, including the scenario that you present.

However, I will also state the case that any kind of investment that we make into anything, whether bitcoin or any other asset/currency, we should try our best to invest based on the various probabilities that we assign to various scenarios, and so maybe the scenario that you outline has about a .001% chance of happening at best, so my investment should account for that.

Now if you are making the mistake of assigning 1% to 10% probabilities to the scenario that you outline, then I would suggest that you are way overassigning such a probability to such an event that is way less probable than you are making it out to be.  

If we take you at your word Snowshow, and you are actually genuinely worried about the non-existence of bitcoin (and therefore its non-value) then you seem to be engaging in even a worse fallacy than the one that I have outlined above because you seem to be placing some higher level of likelihood that bitcoin is either non-existent or worth zero... you seem to be assigning way higher odds than 10% .. maybe greater than 50%.. or even you are talking as if you are 100% sure.. which surely causes you to appear like a looney when you are likely presenting a scenario to be 100% true when in the real world that seems to be outside of your grasp your scenario is more likely to only have about a .001% chance at best of being true.  

Of course, you can proclaim that I am the one who is delusional with my assignment of .001% odds at best, and surely we should be able to agree to disagree, and I might even concede that I got my odds right, and I gave .001% odds to a scenario that had really had 5% odds, but I am not going to go higher than that, and for sure, I am just giving the benefit of the doubt to even say that the odds could be as high as 5%... for sure I am not going into your looney land assignment of odds that seem to be approaching somewhere in the ballpark of certainty that you claim to know more than other people based on your profound brain abilities... or something like that.

You are really going to get fucked if you are really investing in that kind  of a way because bitcoin continues to be one of the best upside asymmetrical bets that have ever been available to normies (presuming that you may well be a normie).  In other words, you do not even need to invest much in bitcoin in order to have the potential to financially profit stupendously and yeah, we can poo-poo profits all that we like, but the essence of the matter is that if you have profits, then you have options and you can choose however you like to use those profits or not to use them.  If you do not have profits then you presumptively have fewer options.

I can even provide a brief overview of my own investment into bitcoin that started in late 2013.  Initially, I did not really know what bitcoin was and I thought that it might be a good hedge against the dollar, so my initial allocation into bitcoin was intended to be invested over the next 6 months while I looked into the matter.  After my first 6 months investing into bitcoin, I pretty much decided to provide myself with another 6 months that had a similar allocation as the first 6 months, and so by the time I got to the end of my first year investing into bitcoin, I had been studying and considering the matter and towards the end of the second 6 months, I decided that I would aim for an allocation that would be about 10% of what I considered to be the value of the quasi-liquid portions of my total investment portfolio.  

Towards the end of 2014, I had pretty much reached my 10% allocation, so at that point, I had considered myself to have had been sufficiently allocated into bitcoin and there was really no need to allocate more than that... however, many of us realize that the end of 2014 and the whole of 2015 saw BTC prices that had bottomed out and had stayed pretty much in the mid-$200s for most of that time.

The punchline is largely that I had decided to largely just continue dollar cost average investing into bitcoin through 2014 and 2015 and by the time the end of 2015 came, I had ended up overallocating into bitcoin because my amount had reached about 13.5%... so in that sense, it seemed to me that overallocated had given me options to be able to have flexibility with that extra 3.5% that I had into bitcoin... - nonetheless, BTC's price performance between late 2015 and 2017 had largely been UP, so in that sense I had reconsidered the way that I would manage my BTC holdings in such a way to just allow my winners (meaning BTC) to ride rather than reallocating.. and so largely that has meant for me that my BTC holdings had gone up to nearly 90% of my overall holdings and then corrected back down to 45% and then returned back to somewhere in the 80% and 90% arena..

Sure, I engaged in some other portfolio managing practices along the way, but in the end, the BTC holdings end up giving more options because it's no real skin off of my back because all along I pretty much already authorized myself to allocate up to 10% and then I just allowed my extra 3.5% allocation just to continue to ride.. and sure it seems that I have had various times of shaving off various profits at various places along the way.. and it seems to me that any of the profits that i had been shaving off had mostly been in connection with the 3.5% extra allocation. and not even really meaningfully depleting that amount because it is already allocated and it is drawn from from time to time when needed.. or just when wanted or just  giving more options.

Another thing would be for me to consider if there might be some need to reallocate some of the BTC.. and to maybe give greater weight to the various going to zero scenarios, and sure some of the shavings off of profits might end up  going into various other kinds of investments like property and some other quality of life matters (that might end up falling into the category of consumption rather than investment), so yeah, maybe perspectives evolve with time and how many additional options might have come from the degree to which profits are present and how those profits have been managed including accounting for various other aspects of life that include making sure that cashflow, expenses and even emergency funds are available too.  .. even during periods in which BTC's price performance (and direction) seems to be going down rather than up.

Why would we want to provide misleading information in order to make a point that is likely to be shown not to be true?

In other words, fuck shitcoins, and I do not see any reason to pump them in this thread; however, there are various ways that shitcoins are intertwined with bitcoin - and an overwhelming majority of them are hanging onto bitcoin's apron strings to receive various kinds of protection.

The price performance of various shitcoins does not always correlate to BTC, and surely those shorter periods of some level of reverse correlation tends to be nice, and the BTC price pump of April to June 2019 ended up being somewhat even more memorable because of the extent to which shitcoin's did not pump during that particular bitcoin pump....

I am not really against your sentiment wagmi... beat on shitcoins whenever and wherever possible.. when in doubt bash a shitcoin; however, I find it problematic to proclaim bitcoin to be 100% detached from shitcoins.,. especially since bitcoin likely increasingly touches all segments of society and the various markets, including that a large number of shitcoin's admittedly hitch their wagons to bitcoin.


That's true.



 


Exactly.  You admit it.


You seem to have meant the royal we... therefore, for funzies, I fixed it for you.


 

Here's an actual link in which we can see the dates more specifically and really it appears that longs are at an all time high for the past 5 years of the below-linked chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDLONGS/

You can view from the trading view chart that the bottom of the longs for the most recent exponential rising period was on about April 4th, so the longs have been continuing to go up exponentially for the past 6 weeks or so, and accordingly, there is no blip of any kind of a downward movement in the longs during the May 5-12 BTC price dippening of the last couple of weeks.  

I would have thought that we would have been able to see some kind of lessening of the number of longs during such a decently large downward BTC price move that went from $39k to $25k (36%) in about 8 days from May 5 to May 12 with about the last portion of that from about $33k to $25k (24%) in the final 3 days (from May 9 to May 12).

No blip in the number of longs in that chart or no other sign of any troubles.

Regarding the overall point, for sure it seems problematic for the BTC price to be able to go up from here with that quantity of longs.. It's hard to imagine going up with that many longs.... unless we just bring Oprah back and everyone wins a car, a hooker and some blow... may as well throw that into the mix, too..

As I already mentioned the number is mostly irrelevant because the units are divisible.. and so surely the number 21 million ends up working from 50 coins mined every 10 minutes and then a difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks (about every two weeks) and a halvening every 210k blocks (which would thereby take about 4 years).. so by the time the first halvening takes place - half of the bitcoins are already mined which adds up to 10.5million coins.. and by the time we get a halvening every 4 years and we add up all of the halvenings by the time we get down to the smallest unit, we have 21 million coins by that time.  

Surely other numbers could have worked out too.. but it really did not matter too much.. but once it was set, then it was set.. and the only real way to perhaps increase the supply would be to increase the number of digits.. which is not really increasing the supply but instead making the existing units more divisible.

It seems that I also already addressed the anonymity matter too, which seems to be a good thing in terms of establishing decentralization.. and getting the ball rolling in a pretty fair way.

Such guy has no control over bitcoin anymore ---at least not that we know of because we do not know if he might still be involved in bitcoin because like you said, he's anonymous.. amazing right?  hahahahaha.. no one to attack and blame, except in the abstract like you are doing Snowshow.. to try to make the whole thing seem more scary than it is.. which is far from convincing... no matter how much you scream it out and/or repeat it..



Ok... sure.. fair enough, even though the amount of electricity or the amount of resources put into bitcoin is not really enormous based on the value provided... and also the decisions about whether to buy electricity and invest resources are at the individual level (referring to miners and node operators)


Individuals make their own calculations about whether they believe that they can benefit or not by participating in bitcoin at whatever level they want to.. whether they want to mine, run a node, develop, accumulate bitcoin, trade bitcoin, build other resources around bitcoin, spend bitcoin or develop retail services to accept bitcoin, develop financial instruments around bitcoin, or even government recognition and adoption.  No one is forcing anyone to get involved in bitcoin, but bitcoin has built in incentives to inspire people to choose to invest time and resources into bitcoin.  Surely, some people have already profited from bitcoin and some people have lost money too... but what else is new.. some people are better at investing their time and resources than others.

Sure, there could end up being a rug pull at any time in bitcoin, but the momentum (and various network effects) seems to be continuing to build on an ongoing basis... You can bet against bitcoin and say nothing is there, but the empirical facts (and even logic) seem to be going against you and your claims Snowshow ..


Your test seems to be pie in the sky made up bullshit.. with made up parameters.

Do you know what that is called?  A strawman argument.  

Bitcoin already shows itself to be valuable in all kinds of ways, there is no need to jump through your made up hoops in order to concede that value could only come through your way of measuring value.

In other words, the longer that bitcoin is around, the more and more it interacts with other systems and embeds into other systems - and value comes from that too... even if at some point, bitcoin ends up completely going to zero and showing itself as some kind of a vacuous system that never ever ended up having any value (as you continue to proclaim).


You can be right all that you want, and you will have fun staying poor the whole time, too.

   

By the way, you can choose to get into bitcoin now, or you can choose to get into bitcoin later.

For sure, many of us longer term bitcoiners recommend that nocoiners get the fuck off of zero.. so in that regard, if you are a BIG ASS bitcoin skeptic, then maybe you would just invest 1% of your investment portfolio into it.. Sure, that might not be a lot of value, but at least you end up having some stake in the game.

Historically, I had recommended that new entrants into bitcoin start out with somewhere between 1% and 10% of their investment portfolio into bitcoin, and then of course, they can tailorize their investment level once they learn more about bitcoin.  In the past year and a half or more. I have been gravitating towards suggesting that the starting out investment range could safely be in the 1% to 25% level  because bitcoin's investment thesis seems to have had gotten stronger .. especially after some of the events around March 2020 and even some of the various monetary reactions to both the March 2020 liquidity issues and various matters related to the pandemic and also some of the new stuff around wide-spread freezing accounts... whether at the individual/institutional level such as the Canadian trucker situation.. but also around the recent freezing of Russian accounts (government level, associated banks and even targeting of institutions and individuals too).


You seem to be blind.



I am still waiting for when this supposed rug pull is going to come.  I have ONLY been in bitcoin for about 8.5 years, so I will admit that my first few years had some of my value in the negative.. but I largely continued to invest during my first few years to continue to accumulate bitcoin, so surely some profits have already been taken out - and there are people with all kinds of variations in their having had already profited by being involved in bitcoin.

It seems that the longer that you have been in, the more likely that the value invested has decent chances of compounding.. even though for sure there are no guarantees, and surely, as already mentioned, there are all kinds of ways that people can choose to invest their time and value into bitcoin.... or choose to refrain which you proclaim your lil selfie to be doing and to recommend for others.. which hopefully there are not too many people dumb enough to follow your likely to be ongoing loser recommendation in this regard.

I guess part of the point that I was intending to make earlier is that you can come into bitcoin at any time, and still likely be able to profit from getting involved in bitcoin, and sure it is quite likely that some of the monetary gains (on a percentage basis) are likely to NOT have as large of an exponential curve in the future, but the fact that bitcoin remains quite early in its development and adoption phases, there still seems to remain quite a bit of upside potential in terms of steepness of the price performance curve.. so surely, it remains your choice about whether to get in or when to get in or how much to get in, and there surely seems to be some value in getting started getting in sooner rather than waiting or spending a lot of time complaining about how bitcoin supposedly has no value.. that kind of seemingly chosen blindness (to the extent that anyone could actually believe that kind of nonsense rather than just be making it up because they are so scared) is not helping you or anyone else for that matter.

In other words, you seem to be fighting a kind of inevitable uppity of bitcoin, even if there is likely to continue to be ups and downs on the ongoing likely UPpity bitcoin path in terms of various adoption (network effect) and including the reflection of ongoing UPpity movement in BTC prices.. even if it might take a while to play out.



Yep.


Both logic and facts seem to support ongoing existing value and also ongoing increasing value too.


Well if value equals price, then sure...

Part of the reason that bitcoin remains ongoingly volatile, and perhaps one of its most inevitable features happens to be volatility is because there continue to be disagreements about whether BTC's price reflects value.. and so differences of opinion (in the market) result in some of the price battles and even the striving to push the BTC price down or up, depending upon how you might be playing.. if you are a big enough player who believes s/he can move the markets.

Sure, retail momentum can also play into BTC's price direction too.  Of course, there are some folks who buy and sell bitcoin blindly without consulting the price, and there are others who might try to time the short or medium movements in the BTC price.  Quite a bit of behavior goes into establishing the price and maybe causing the BTC price to go in one direction or another.  If you believe that BTC is overvalued at half a trillion or whatever it is, then you either won't buy it or you might sell what you have or you might even bet against it.  

You may or may not be correct, but hopefully, when you are trying to figure out whether to take a stake in bitcoin, you are trying to account for a variety of your own personal factors, and view about the direction of the BTC price as compared with other assets remains only one of the factors.  Other factors include your own cashflow, other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to study, learn, plan, strategize and tweak from time to time which may also include reallocations, trading or the use of leverage or financial instruments.


It's crazy because it does not matter.  People exchange value within bitcoins system and also people exchange value with bitcoin to interact with outside systems.  You are making up shit regarding what ifs that do not even play out within the real dynamics that are determining bitcoin's ongoing value and ongoing increasing value with the ongoing building of network effects including tick tock the next block every 10 minutes.. which is fucking valuable, if you think about the fact that no one can stop bitcoin, even if they were to want to .. which in the end, they do not want to invest as many resources into stopping bitcoin as to just let it continue to produce blocks every 10 minutes.  Bitcoin is here and continuing to build.. so you can jump on the train or stay on the sidelines and continue to poo-poo bitcoin as if it does not exist.  That's your choice.. bitcoin is for friends and for enemies, and none of us can stop you from involving yourself with bitcoin (beyond just talking negative about it) in whatever way that you would like.. or just refrain, if that's what you choose to do.


Perhaps there is a way to just play along with you for a while Snowshow.

For argument sake, we could concede that intrinsically bitcoin has nothing of value contained there in.. it is starting from.. nothing, nada, nichts, la shayy, nichego, Méiyǒu, kuchh nahin, rien, nashi, hiç bir şey, không có gì.

So even if bitcoin starts from nothing, people start to put resources into bitcoin such as mining it (electricity as you had conceded) but also manpower and production of dedicated computers, they put time and energy into developing it, they build various kinds of systems around it as ways to trade it and to speculate on its price and to store it.

I would speculate that the various ways to put value into bitcoin whether time or money or resources, ends up creating value, no?  Some of that value could be fleeting but some of that value could be sticky, too, and if there might end up being utility in using such bitcoin systems (such as keeping track of transactions in a way that is superior to prior methods because there are higher levels of objectivity in the ledger), then the present value may well increase and increase and there may well be speculation regarding future value based in part of present value, current developments and speculations regarding future developments, building and utility.

It seems that some kind of a system that has no intrinsic value would be able to develop present and future value based on various kinds of ongoing inputs into the system and also ways in which such systems that are bitcoin or built on or around bitcoin will become increasingly known, including that some folks may well start to speculate that such bitcoin system has superior ways of holding or building value as compared with other systems that they know, which may well cause some momentum that contributes to the value of a previously intrinsically zero product/project to be growing in value.

It remains your choice to continue to poo-poo matters and act as if nothing has been said.


Don't get too caught up on the number of units.. because they can be divided further.. so sure in the end there will be 21 million of those units or 2.1 Quadrillion satoshis.. and even satoshis can be further divided to account for likely increasing value/prices in the future.


Sure.. current market capitalization is a bit more than half a trillion dollars.. so sure.


I already addressed this point.


Yes.. your supposed ongoing genius insight seems to continue to fall on deaf ears, and perhaps we are talking passed one another.. I made my points, you made your points, and we did not resolve anything so it seems... but I could give less than two shits about you in particular because you seem to be too stubborn to acknowledge the value and/or importance of BTC - yet since this is a public thread, it may well be a good idea to have responses that other members of the forum and members of the public are going to be able to read.. and maybe even to provide their own response.. besides considering you as a blind and out of touch loon...


That is a pretty crazy talking point that you got there Snowshow.

It's like you don't have any ability to distinguish bitcoin from various shitcoins.

Have you ever considered bitcoin as a ledger that also transmits value? .... we had never previously been able to transmit value over the internet without having to trust third parties prior to bitcoin.  Even the imitation shitcoins and various other projects have not achieved what bitcoin has achieved.. and part of the whole thing keeping bitcoin together is a system of computers in which they are not coordinated and they are built upon incentives that cause them to continue to protect the transactions that are made while also protecting the value that is on the network that could be transacted but is just sitting their in HODL status.

It's a fucking amazing system that has been invented (or discovered) and it has gotten to a state of existence in which no one can stop it without expending a shit tonn of resources, and even if someone tries to stop it, at this point it is questionable whether anyone can stop it or have sufficient incentives to stop such an amazing phenomenon that has come to us in the past 13-14 years and has been increasing and increasing in value through ongoing existence (also known as a Lindy effect).


Yes.. your myth about some secret people stealing value, and accordingly, you are either incapable of recognizing the value of a decentralized system in front of your eyes (at least the most decentralized and powerful system that has existed to date) or alternatively you recognize the actual value of such system, and you are merely continuing to spout out misleading and perhaps disinformation talking points on purpose because you and your handlers happen to be scaredy cats.. but instead of being scaredy cats, jump on board.. better late then never in terms of the various status quo institutions that are going to have to transition into the bitcoin ecosystem sooner or later just like most of the worlds monetary value will be gravitating into bitcoin in one way or another.. just might take a few hundred years.... and there are no real needs for us regular folks to plan that far in advance, even if we can see the direction where bitcoin is going.



What's mind boggling is that you want to just keep making shit up.  If a better system comes along, then I am sure many of us would be more than willing to abandon bitcoin and move over to such better system, but it so happens to be that bitcoin remains a god damned amazing invention and it is playing out in ways that are likely way better than so many of us could have even imagined.. amazing to see how powerful bitcoin is and even if there are short-term battles with the price (including downward movements), the whole system of bitcoin continues to plug along.. tick tock the next block every 10 minutes.. even if there are quite a few powerful folks who likely wished bitcoin would stop, including you Snowshow and your handlers, but you have no choice and your disinformation and misinformation attempts are likely not to really help, even if you might experience some short-term feelings of success.


Who am I praising exactly?  bitcoin is decentralized. there is no one to praise.. Satoshi is gone.. and if he came back to try to direct bitcoin, no one would listen to him because not even Satoshi is able to change bitcoin... not that he is coming back..   It is quite likely that Satoshi is dead.  therefore, no one is in charge of bitcoin..   bitcoin continues to survive and push on, even though no one is in charge..

go figure.

What a coincidence!!!!   


That may well be the same as when llamapox and/or donkey breath pox was discovered also.


Unless we would want to call it Philipmapox which was discovered one year earlier and would have the unambiguous superior claim, anyhow.


Go figure.

 

Technically, you are correct in your description Biodom, and so those of us going through that 2015 to 2016 market (including 2014 too) may not have realized that we were out of the bear market until even later than September 2015.. Surely, in late October 2015/early November 2015 we had a short spike up to $500, and then largely we ended up getting stuck mostly in the lower $400s for about 7 months until the end of May 2016.. so in that sense, I have frequently asserted that we did not really get confirmation that we were out of the bear market until May/June 2016.. .. and so maybe these kinds of delayed labelings can cause quite a few problems because one thing is getting out of the bear market of 2015 and then confirming that we were in a bull market.. which was also a kind of delayed look at the matter that some people did not realize until later in 2016.. but also were scared into thinking that we might have been thrown out of the bull market in early 2017.. and then mid 2017 there was a lot of fear that the forkening wars were going to cause us to go back into a bear market but instead after August 2017 we got our blow off top, so by the time anyone might have labelled BTC as being in a bull market towards the end of 2017, the whole bull market was coming to a close and surely had a spectacular blow off top in the process.


It seems to me that many of us who have been in bitcoin long enough strive to attempt to profit from the UPs and DOWNs to the extent feasible.. but we have ended up being sufficiently enough in profits that we try our best NOT to get bogged down into too many details.. even though we might not want to run out of money to buy on the way down, sometimes we may well end up running out of money to buy much if any on the way down, too..

So it seems that those dynamics can be a bit frustrating, but in the whole scheme of things, they end up being first world problems in the sense that we already realize that we have made more money from our ongoing years in bitcoin, including those earlier years when we were more stressed out about the exact level of profitability of our holdings - maybe even lacking in profits for a period of time.. that relatively speaking we may well end up feeling somewhat spoiled by how we got to our position - and not completely luck and not completely skill.. but a certain level of earlier preparations and stick-with-it-ness.

Of course, many of us may have tried to build our emergency funds too.. so that we would not have to draw from our BTC during dips.. but at the same time, we may well likely realize that if were to end up experiencing a big surprise expense that goes beyond expectations, we can  draw from our bitcoins, because we have gotten somewhat beyond the stages of earlier accumulation or maintenance and we have flexibility.

I do understand and appreciate that it could take guys just one cycle to get to such status, but it could take 2 or three cycles, which in part may well depend upon how assertive, aggressive, or just persistent a guy had gotten in his earlier stages of BTC accumulation.. We may realize that super aggressiveness might not have been needed in earlier days, but later down the road, it is seeming that higher levels of aggressiveness in BTC accumulation might be needed.. and for sure, guys are likely going to worry more about whether they have stacked enough sats and their need to attempt to take advantage of BTC price dips when their BTC stash seems to have not quite reached a kind of "care free" appreciation level.


They should have called it llamapox

or

donkeybreath pox


rather than monkeypox..

So lame..   and no fun...



Monkeypox..??    

Mostly, I have been trying to be descriptive rather than prescriptive, so you can call it whatever you like.. You seem to be the one who is failing/refusing to deal with actual facts... which also likely leads you into bad logic too.. but maybe it does not matter so much if your logic is good or bad if you yourself continue to consider that something is not real merely because it includes seemingly intangible characteristics... there are a lot of things that are real in the world that partially or wholly include or involve intangibles.

Maybe only a toddler has NOT developed a brain that is able to utilize various aspects of abstract thinking and to appreciate that a variety of real things exist in the world even when they are not in a physically tangible form in front of their ability to sense them with one of the 5 senses or even if you are so sensorially alert as to consider that there are more than 5 senses.. some theories of 21 senses.. .. .



Well it is important if various ideas are communicated between people, and sometimes certain kinds of phenomena, practices, procedures become accepted or commonly known.

So surely there will be differing levels of understanding that people have in terms of how they might put something to use or feel that they are affected by it, and yes there are likely  going to be some people who either do not understand various aspects or they just remain outsiders because they refuse to accept or understand some real phenomena that exists in the world and is shared amongst other people.



It's possible that you could be correct in some ways that parties need to understand the medium of exchange, but you are tending towards discussion this matter in so many absolutes that even I can think of examples in which you are wrong too...

So for example, people can benefit from some systems without realizing that they are benefiting from it.
 Sometimes infrastructure can be built and people can benefit from those systems.  Sometimes ways of interacting can be established in which every time you see a person on the street you do not try to kill them, and you do not realize that you are benefiting from that.

Let's say for example, you live in an area that does not naturally have potable water, yet either you receive deliveries of potable water on a regular basis and you do not even know that the water is being delivered to your location.. In your mind, you believe that the potable water naturally exists in the location that you tap into it, and you had not known anything else in your existence and you did not involve yourself in consenting to such delivery system, but you live your whole life receiving the delivered water.

I could provide other examples to show that you are describing such need to consent or know about your benefits or interactions with a positive system with too much absolutism.




I already gave examples.  You seem to be the one who both lacks imagination and also has the burden to prove that what you say is true.., because as far as I can see, you seem to have gone too far down the imagination road.



Already thought about it.  It is not as difficult or dramatic as you are making it out to be in your level of seeming ongoing wrongness.


Well, it seems to me that any new invention both has the potential to enhance existing systems and to move value around within existing systems, but it also has potentials to increase new value in ways that might not have had been previously imaginable under the old system.  Sure, the value might not be unilateral and without trade offs, but we can study the existence of a lot of systems that both brought value but also increased the total size of the value pie - whether we are referring to inventions like the wheel, the automobile, electricity, the internet, the refrigerator, and bitcoin ends up having several of its own ways of both creating efficiencies but also increasing possible values or ways of interacting that increases value.

Just take the car, for example, yeah more bugs were killed and roads were built that changed aspects of the environment, but it also allowed for movement of people and goods that allowed for improvements in society.. or maybe split the family apart because people were no longer stuck living in smaller geographical area.. You can spin the positives and negatives and maybe even proclaim that the car caused net negatives, just like you could do the same with bitcoin, yet you still seem to be in denial if you just conclusorily proclaim that bitcoin has no value... which surely seems to be your lame-ass perspective and position.

That sounds like a distinction without a difference. You try to make it seem that you are creatively genius, but in the end, we already know that a whole practice has been built around BTC and bitcoin has shown itself to be a paradigm shifting invention that causes various dynamics through out the world to have to be reframed...

You can ignore it and downplay it to your peril.. hopefully there are not too many people who follow such reality ignoring fantasy proposition.



First you are creating a false framework, and second, benefits from bitcoin can be measured in various ways within various bitcoin systems, and also the longer that bitcoin exists, the more that bitcoin touches upon a variety of systems that are somewhat outside of it (or historically had been outside of it).. So benefits from bitcoin can increasingly be measured through its various interactions with a larger and larger number of systems that may have had little to no connection with anything like bitcoin.

Maybe another aspect of your seemingly false framework is trying to too strictly categorize bitcoin, and surely bitcoin had a bit of an invention with the publication of the October 31, 2008 white paper and also with its underlying software that started running on January 3, 2009... but also, bitcoin was not invented out of thin air, but instead was built upon quite a few concepts that had been theorized, explored, attempted and built upon prior to bitcoin's being named in its 2008 white paper.   

Of course, there seems to be some innovative ways that already existing concepts were put together in bitcoin which causes some of that to have been potentially inventions or discoveries rather than prior work.  Another dynamic is that bitcoin has not remained stagnant since its 2008 announcement and its 2009 beginning to run, but there have been systems built within bitcoin and around bitcoin, proposals made, rejected and adopted, and various kinds of learning is ongoing - even if arguments can be made that bitcoin has been running since 2009 - it has tended to serve as an example of a project that runs like a plane in flight and continues to fly while being built upon.

Ignore, poo-poo and denigrate bitcoin to your peril - and surely perhaps even the various shitcoins, associated projects/promotionals, proposals (even the rejected ones) and even attack vehicles can serve as learning mechanisms for people considering bitcoin and ways to potentially learn, employ or build upon bitcoin.



Well maybe your simple facts are too simple since they seem to be attempting to proclaim either a kind of reality that does not exist or some kind of aspect of the world that you would like to believe does not exist by your mere wishing it away (or proclaiming to ignore it while creating threads about what you are proclaiming to ignore).



Surely, you can label some of us (including yours truly) as preaching when the fact of the matter is more likely that we are attempting to engage in good faith descriptions of a world that we consider to be more accurate than your nonsenses.  Of course, not everyone acts in good faith when they engage in dialogues with others, and you seem to be falling into a kind of disingenuine bad faith and misleading camp rather than really identifying some kind of empirical truth that needs to be better fleshed out.


The above set of ideas (to the extent that they could be considered as ideas rather than gobble-dee-gook inconsistent assertions?) hardly makes any sense.

For example, I am not much of a proponent of various shitcoins, but even I am going to concede that shitcoins have value, even if they are used to scam people.

Bitcoin is in another category.. but if you would like to lump bitcoin in with various kinds of shitcoins and then to consider the whole field as valueless, you would be both empirically and logically wrong on that front too.

I doubt that they would be gold-coated (or plated) - unless that helps in some kind of preservation way, but surely better find all 24 of the washers, be able to put them in their proper order, and hope that they do not end up leading to a dummy wallet prior to getting too ccccitttteeeee about trade-offs of the likely needed dental work.  #thanks a lot fillippone




Two weeks would be fair enough to get to $33k to $35k-ish..

What should we consider to be our current range?

I am currently considering our current range as $27k to $32k... , even though we have not been below $28.5k since May 12th - 8 days now... .


That is pretty damned dumb premise of a rumor that has almost zero basis in reality beyond a bunch of fucktwats saying it, trying to suggest that there is potentially some level of truth to it and it remains as a fairly persistent FUD spreading fantasy... similar to the fantasy that USDT (Tether) is going to bring down bitcoin. which has largely been being spread since 2014/2015-ish...


Perhaps.. or buy more... or a combination of both.


Our currently ongoing dippity down from $30k-ish to $28,690 in the past couple of hours would not be enough to get too excited about - even though many of us would surely prefer our dippity to be UP rather than down... at least I would prefer a dip up rather than a dip down.. but I am not going to write home about movement that so far seems fairly range bound... until it is not..  


Might be a bit of a stretch to expect getting that far towards the UPpity within 7 months or so.. but surely not impossible... but we would surely have to get past a few resistance points, and then it seems to me that noman's zone would start somewhere between $55k and $62k.. and probably not end until $92k-ish.. but hey it is difficult to know that far out.. and that many seemingly resistance points.. .. anyhow, it does seem that $80k would be in the middle of deadman's zone so not really a likely stopping point.. but in November 2021, $69k wasn't a likely stopping point either, but we saw what happened with that.

Surely, there seems to be some artificialities to the way the question is raised by either the same person or some dumbass talking point coordination center.

A decent lack of thought because we know that bitcoin buyers/accumulators have tended to benefit from being in bitcoin the longer that they have been in - even though in bitcoin's so far price history, there sometimes could be periods of up  3.5 years in which purchased BTC was not in profits.. yet for anyone with any level of sophistication, the data should not show us to get in and out of bitcoin but rather attempt to have a longer term plan and to accumulate bitcoin through the up and down periods, and in the longer run you are likely going to be in profits and if you continue to accumulate BTC, it is quite likely that you are not even going to have to wait 3.5 years to be in profits and to benefit from BTC.

Lot's of nonsense spread by bitcoin naysayers like Snowshow / Antithesis / antikvark / fxsurfer and perhaps some others on their naysaying team of one.. hahahahahaaha

So far in bitcoin's history, Bitcoin's price performance has brought actual tangible benefits that can be measured in the real world for those persons who had cashed out, and the argument would not even be that you have to cash out (beyond keeping your profits "on paper") so long as bitcoin at least maintains its value/price and perhaps continues to at least gravitate in the upwards direction with price in the coming years (even if there might continue to be some further downs along the way too).

One of the worst kinds of losing scenarios in bitcoin would be if the BTC price continues to gravitate downward in price and never recovers from that downward gravitation, and another kind of losing scenario would be some kind of sudden drop in price to bring bitcoin prices either down to zero or to real low values that causes great impacts on the confidence of BTC HODLers/accumulators.

In my glancing through this thread, I can see presumptions that bitcoin is either not sufficiently holding value or that bitcoin has value on paper only - but those kinds of presumptions are contrary to the actual facts (rather than the fantasy facts presented by bitcoin naysayers like Snowshow / Antithesis / antikvark / fxsurfer).

I am surely a subscriber to the theory that any myth has some real facts attached to it, so in that regard, there would need to be some weighing of which kinds of facts are more material and relevant than others, and for sure with bitcoin price is not the ONLY way to attempt to measure the extent to which some things in the material world actually back it... which we should be able to see and appreciate with the passage of time that bitcoin's network effects continue build.. There are a lot of ways that we could individually measure bitcoin's network effects to attempt to figure out if progress continues to be made.**

**Trace Mayer had been outlining bitcoin's seven network effects going back for several years

I am not going to go into any kind of detailed discussion of how each of the network effects are growing, and surely Snowshow / Antithesis / antikvark / fxsurfer have their rights to express their own fantasylandia opinions and conclusions to the extent that they do not end up getting banned for their disingenuineness ongoing misrepresentations.

I am going to be pissed off if I bite into any bolts, nuts or washers when eating my fillippone-prepared pizza.

#justsaying.

That's one of the BIG QUESTIONS LFC.

Is $30k the new $6k?

or

Is $30k the new $4k?



Has the BIG dip already happened or not?






Surely, we should attempt to prepare for either scenario, and likely most of the longer term bitcoiners are prepared for either of those scenarios, but surely there are folks out there who are not prepared for either scenario.  

The newbies, no coiners, low coiners are likely not prepared for UPpity...

and

there are likely some decently longer term bitcoiners who may likely have not prepared for DOWNity... and have run out of cash.. and are really ONLY prepared for UP.

Many of us speculate that even in the better of scenarios, it can take a decent amount of time to either get a bounce back or reverse course - meaning return to UPpity from the place where we are at currently.

None of the scenarios are guaranteed, and I hate to suggest that anyone prepare for further down.  

I suppose the term HODL does come to mind for those who are prepared for UP, and may well have been prepared for UP since the mid-to-upper $40ks, so in several of those kinds of cases, there may well have been some running out of fiat that had gone back quite a ways.. so the soundest of advice may well be to just HODL in such circumstances... and whether someone in a HODL position is able to continue to generate cashflow may well affect whether s/he is able to build up more cash reserves - in the event that more cash reserves might be needed in our short-to-medium term future.

Running out of cash and then not being able to generate more cash.... would likely be the more stressful of positions that would become more stressful if bitcoin and/or other assets continue to go down in price and still no cash. what to do? what to do?

Maybe you can see where I am going with this?  There can be quite a BIG incentive for bears to continue to push -when they might recognize that several peeps are already stressed.. and then when further down comes people end up doing the opposite of what they should have been doing (which is selling on the way down) because do not have enough cash.. they have not had enough time to generate more cash since the last dumpening, and because of their situation, they are largely ONLY prepared for UP... so then some of the last down pushes end up getting a few more folks to part themselves with their lillie fiend - perhaps at a loss by then (if not a much lower price that could still be in profits.. but just less profits.. or maybe just breaking even.. as mindrust proclaimed that his position had been)..

I am not even saying that I know exactly how to play these kinds of situations, except maybe that any of us likely just need to reflect upon if our current set up is sufficient for a variety of scenarios.. including uncomfortable ones that may or may not end up playing out.. Do I sound like a FUD spreader now?  Where's Majormax when we need him?

Surely, "living like a king" has a bit of a management of money side to it... because surely anyone who lives within their means and has the option to not work based on income that they have coming in or to work minimally and still have all of their needs of life met, then could be considered as "living like a king" even though objectively, persons who are living within their means might well be earning/spending way less than other people who are forced to work to service both their ongoing debts and the lifestyle that they chose to live.

Whether a signature campaign or some other kind of minimal effort kind of "employment" that brings in a cashflow would be considered as choosing the kind of work or minimizing the kind of work or sufficiently satisfying/fulfilling may well be within the eyes of the beholder.

The whole assessment of the matter of whether a person happens to be "living within their means" and sufficiently free from either debt bondage or their own chosen lifestyle remains somewhat subjective, too.. because some people may well proclaim that they are completely happy in their having to work 40-80 hours a week because they love the kind of work that they do and they get a sense of self-fulfillment from their work.  At some point, there might be some acknowledgement of lack of fulfillment or burnout could kick in, and then at that point, there might be some acknowledgement that reduction of debt could end up providing more freedoms... yet I had already argued that some value can also come from earning a relatively high income job (even if you do not like it) to build up an investment portfolio nestegg that would thereafter allow one to live off of that built-up investment nestegg without having to do any further work - besides merely managing the cashflow and investments within that portfolio - which could end up being a not very high impact/stress kind of work... the 4-hour week? hahaha...


I doubt that it is very helpful to have a "guess the country" contest.

We are likely not to be so lucky to get rid of such a character/firm.

According to the below linked article, the firm's founder, Gabriel Plotkin, is offering clients to "reinvest" in a new fund...


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/melvin-capital-says-it-plans-to-unwind-funds.html

Of course, any of us run a risk here if we are going too far down the stablecoin rabbit hole in terms of our discussion, yet I understand that there can be quite a bit of variability in terms of what kind of options that might be available to people in different geographical locations.. .and surely in this thread, historically we have been attempting to provide some focus on the BTC/USD pair - even though for sure there are members who trade or even get into or out of bitcoin through other fiat currencies.

At the same time, sometimes some of the members might not pay a whole hell of a lot of attention regarding which dollar-pegged coin that they might be trading in or out of because whatever exchange that they are using might not have very many (if any) options in terms of which dollar pegged coin they are using...

At the same time, the happenings of the past week or two with the UST (the terra coin) has highlighted that some stable coins may well be less stable than they had been marketing themselves to be... so yeah, many guys could have inadvertently gotten themselves in a BIG ASS pickle.. and also over the years, there have been regular members in this thread who have been asserting that the pumping forever dynamics of HODLing pure bitcoin is not enough for them, and there are so many other projects out there that will offer "yield" on your bitcoin.. and so many of the yield chasers got royally fucked in the past week or two.

Perhaps some were able to get out, or they were in a yielding stable coin project that so far has not ended up blowing up (going to zero or whatever).

I think that many of us have already been skeptical of various kinds of stable coins, but there does seem to be some differences in terms of if they are actually backed by collateral, and surely there have been governments who had been considering that some of their CBDCs might be modeled upon (or pegged to) various kinds of stable coins, so there may well be some revisiting of how to consider those kinds of CBDC projects - which are not likely to go away any time soon and cause potentially further confusion for many of us trying to figure out how our own interactions with bitcoin might end up overlapping into some of those kinds of projects - if it could end up being that we can ONLY get our value in or out of certain exchanges through stable coins or through CBDCs.. and yeah, maybe some of these various threats to privacy and confusion regarding actual stability, might lead more folks to either transacting directly with their bitcoin and/or seeking out like minded folks who want to transact directly with bitcoin - even potentially through second or third layer solutions rather than on the base chain.. even though in recent times, bitcoin's base chain has retained mostly decently reasonable processing times and rates, too.




Wow!!!!!!  



What's it like getting attacked by tbtb?



I have never heard about any specific stories of an actual real peep actually getting attacked by tbtb.



From your tone, I imagine that such attack was not pleasant.



How long did such attack last?




How did such attack manifest itself?








Are tbtb in the room with us now?



oh gawd


 

I doubt that you are attempting to work with the actual hypothetical Zlantann.

If you change too many of the variables, then you are creating a new hypothetical.

Showing that you can blow a lot of money in a night in any of the major cities of the world (even the less prosperous and less expensive cities) surely would not be representative of just being able to live relatively well in some house with 4 other guys (even though surely I don't consider living with others to be very preferable - because of the realities of getting others to pay their fair share and then coordinating with them in a variety of ways in terms of a variety of lifestyle preferences.

Sure we likely are not going to be able to get all of the details correct, and we do have to infer some matters from the hypothetical including that the reality of the matter would be that no one is going to live like a literal king for $300 per week - even under the circumstances of sharing a palace with 4 other guys, but you still attempt to imagine some scenarios in which the living can be decently comfortable - and having to go into rural areas - might be a step too far removed for quite a few guys - including the various amenities that The Pharmacist has described as preferences.

We know that living in the center of cities tend to cost more than living in the outskirts, so there still could be some access to having benefits from being close to the social hub rather than removing oneself all the way to rural areas and still getting a discount by not being exactly in the most expensive parts of the city.  Of course, any of us would suspect that some risk comes from living in rural areas in the sense of potentially becoming a target if you stand out quite a bit, and surely security concerns might end up getting to be overblown or some of us might not even realize that there is any kind of security concern if our stays are somewhat temporary, so we might not get extorted or kidnapped or held hostage until we have already established more of a permanent presence in such rural location(s) without even realizing that we had been put on the radar for an extortionist target (sometimes maybe lucky to escape with your life if such an event ends up happening.. and realizing by the time it is too late).. so sometimes it may well be better to either be in decently bigger city or at least a location in which the level of standing out does not contribute towards becoming a financial extortion target.

Even in Western Locations there are some cities that are way more affordable to live, and I am thinking that part of the goals of The Pharmacist is to attempt to benefit from the exotic factor of being in a foreign location that would not come from merely attempting to find a low cost place to live within a western country.

Maybe there are not too many differences between the cost of living in the USA versus Canada; however, Mexico has a lot of potential for discounted locations - relatively speaking and really has a pretty vast array of city and town types that tend to have pretty decent access to goods and services - probably more access to goods and services as compared with El Salvador, which is considered to be one of our potential bitcoin friendly locations.  I have been to Mexico and I have been to Panama, but I have not been to El Salvador, so it would be more difficult for me to talk about how feasible it might seem for an American to locate there in the coming years, if The Pharmacists potential action timeline target might be in the near future rather than sometime way into the future?

There also might be some guys who are able to talk about various South or Central American locations, too.  Even some of the Caribbean island locations might not be overly expensive to live, such as some of the purported tax benefits that might be had in locating to The Dominican Republic.