The restoration is in planning stage now. In total, there is currently 24 building-related projects in the project plan, of which only 3 are commenced to happen this summer. The construction of Satoshi Suite (above) is a 7-figure project in USD terms, and will be commenced when 500 bitcoins is enough to do the job. My estimate is this August, so the suite would be ready by summer 2015. The first happening there is the "I am not Satoshi" party/gala/masquerade, which gathers together the people who have been accused of being Satoshi but have denied.

Where I need your help is in the planning of the quality and services of the rooms. My idea (out of my natural tendency to build beautiful, long-lasting, and luxurious) has been to target all hotel rooms in the upper end, so that a (single/double/twin) per night would start from $250, and several classes of suites would be above that. I currently have 7 cheaper "dorm" rooms there but intend to bulldoze them as "unfitting" to the place. Is this a good idea? Anyone needs the standard rooms?

Also how to maximize the use of bitcoins there? All ideas with an implementation are welcome!

Anything else comes to mind?

The website is under construction and may be launched next week, I'll keep you posted.

Oh, did not see it (the thread I mean..)

Really good article. There was some talk of a followup, more like a generic Bitcoin article, but at least I did not see it yet, did you?

Not that it is much of my business, but...

...why is there no discussion anywhere that the BTC given to Mt.Gox for safekeeping are not that company's assets, nor loans to it? They belong to the customers as customer property (or customer funds). In liquidation, the customer property is returned to its owner and not commingled with company assets nor used to pay its lawyers. If the guardian has failed with safekeeping so that a part of the property is stolen, the loss should be prorated, especially if there is no mention in TOS.

Actually it is my business (point: III). I decided to mention this once in every 500 posts.

Wow, what a bunch of vested interest in keeping the price low...

Boys, the way for us to profit is to buy (or at least not sell) now, as the price suppression continues.

The trendline is at $1100 now, it's better than last October

Selling yourself to the bankers to spy on me in my castle? Yes, that is my business model all along. The place is expensive to stay and so full of spies, that I live happily ever after (need to keep myself at least remotely dangerous though, for sluggish behaviour would lead to reduced income and lifestyle   ).


Send PM with serious offer then. I employ 4 full-time and 7 part-time people currently and get job applications regularly.


I did not see Russia starting anything, although the media tries hard to make people think so without any factual proof except to the contrary. Otherwise, thanks for the analysis.

Yellow press mixes truth with untruth, it is a common deception tactic and also sells well.

In this case it was true that we did not pay salaries (hey - few startups do when they are less than a year old, self-funded, and all employed have ownership).

So to this matter which is "shocking" to the general public but nevertheless true, an equally shocking, but false and defamatory assertion is added: and organizes sex parties.

This headline has no merit whatsoever, because the company in question or any other company that I have chaired, has never organized sex parties, I have not attended such, never even had sex with anyone else except my wife in 11 years, not even kissed any foreign woman.

If you hear that I have done these things or worse, in the past or in the future, just remember that there does not have to be any truth if a magazine wants to write something about you. Nada. Zilch. Only the sheep believe even as much as a word of the stories in yellow press.

The world is so corrupt that even in ordinary events, nearly always the official version is a gross lie.

No thanks, I have enough work in keeping out the people who are clandestine agents, I don't need any who are doing it as openly as you.


Last time I checked, the exponential conversion rate from dumb to smart was +1161% APR. So it does not matter A) in the big picture, B) for any of the existing holders, how long it takes for a random additional person or entity to adopt it. But it matters pretty darn much for C) that person or entity. Which practically guarantees that some will outsmart others also this year. Like a rigged roulette which not only pays 10:1 for red, but also all numbers are red.


I haven't lost a night's sleep with Bitcoin, even though I keep 60-80% of my net worth in it, and the dollar value fluctuates. Even if it goes to zero, I have other stuff and am still debt free. I cannot understand the debt slaves who take mortgages and willingly tie themselves with financial commitments where they cannot affect, but must suffer, the outcome, and lose everything. All VOLUNTARILY! WtH!

These guys need some serious re-education concerning risk management. Nobody has ever went broke buying bitcoins, but 2% of Finnish adult population went bankrupt and lost all (in many cases for life) in 1991-1993 alone, due to debt. Bitcoin has no debt, no wonder you bankers hate it.


Well since you only use the American sources, you must be very confused; who can help you?

Go away, troll. If it did not have any value, nobody would try to derail the discussion. Go to Blackcoin! They also believe that it has value. Not interested? Well, that just affirms that Bitcoin has value and Blackcoin does not.

($5 billion was given by USA to foment a revolution promote democracy in Ukraine. Bitcoin is much more important than a midsize country. It is part of the game to have paid trolls. Lots of them.)

I need to get at least one other player in the first round (apart from sgbett) to make the scoring formula work I am sure that more will follow in the other rounds when they see how it works and hopefully this gains the academic popularity that I am aiming for.

One way to do the classes would be to make them equi-probable:

1259   or more
836 - 1258
677 - 835
600 - 676
531 - 599
490 - 530
450 - 489
411 - 449
358 - 410
357 or less.

It may not be immediately obvious, but according to Bitcoin's historical price developments, it is equally probable that a 30-day period starting at 490 will end up in any of the ranges above (there is an equal number of instances in each of them in the historical data).

Practically always when it makes new ATH's, it is also above the trend. So this correction would not be very practical, because you never sell unless it goes to uncharted territory, and when it does, it is typically overbought already.

A separate matter which is not really part of the SSS ideology at all (but which I subscribe to myself) is to use the exponential trendline sell signals with the intention to buy back cheaper later. This speculation should imo be conceptually different from SSS, so that SSS winnings are not used for buyback, only the proceeds from the speculative selling at the bubble top.

Just don't drown in all the money you suddenly make at the bubble top with these various plans 

Bitcoin 30-day change (historical, 1500+ datapoints) is 60.6% positive, 39.4% negative.

My secret aim is not to make profit (for either me or you) but to get intelligent and statistics/probability/math/Bitcoin-oriented people to enter thought-out predictions so that the aggregated data of the predictions could be used in making informed trades by both me and all who read this. This would go out to the world as an indication that Bitcoin folks really can forecast its going up (so that it is not random shouting "CCMF!12") and also will be really interesting how accurate the next bubble top forecasting and the following decline will be.

The rationale behind a high fee is to reduce the number of entrants, increase the quality of forecasting, make administration easier and enable me to offer a competitive prize.

Simplifying the method can be done without affecting the essentials. 7 categories would be a bit gamey, I'd like 20 more. The historical range (alone) for Bitcoin is -65%...+765% per month and needs to be adequately captured with the choices.

That would be oversimplifying my words. Try: "I have learned of several isolated trades during the time period, none of which has happened at below 0.001 or above 0.01. Because the trading was non-continuous and the individual circumstances may have affected the prices, volume data is not available to me, and many other factors, I have approximated 0.005 for the whole period with no trend."

Hey, I started planning this price prediction contest because I got 16 predictors in the preliminary round which was only open for 24 hours!

To start it, I'd like to have indication of at least a few participants, so if you plan to join, please send me PM (not binding!) or drop a line in the thread itself.

I have promised BTC2 or $2,000 (whichever is HIGHER at the close of the year) as a prize. Entry cost is BTC0.1.

In real life, investment/development decisions are not flip-flopped overnight. There are factors like funding, resourcing people, etc. that make the planning horizon to be at least several months, even years.

The closure of Mt.Gox did not affect Malla at all. It may have postponed many ideas that were in planning stage, and it has definitely built up a growing backlog of people who would have liked to buy bitcoins but are now hesitant since they await for clearer waters. When all these start to move, they will be the building blocks of the next rally.

Last summer we did not see the rally immediately after the capitulation. It took months for new people to become confident enough to start buying. Patience! Don't sell now!

The increases in the past are something that has never before happened in the history of mankind. This much is a fact.

What we must now research is: what has caused it? There must be something in play that has not been part in any previous rises in the price of investable instruments.

The answer could be: adoption. If the bitcoin network is valued at linearly to the number of its members, the rise in participants from 10 to 1,000,000 would explain the rise of price by 100,000x. But since the number of bitcoins has risen, the marketcap has actually risen more than 100,000x and thus more than linearly - SlipperySlope says that quadratic is the right function. The truth may be in between.

There may be other answers, but the mainstream thinking of: ponzi, pyramid, bubble, don't survive because there is plenty of evidence from them in the history of mankind, and they do not correspond to what is happening with Bitcoin.

For people who are not research-minded, the mere historical facts could serve as a basis for investment. The main disadvantage is that they are prone to buying high and selling low. Holding takes understanding.

That is understandable, because few if any (LTC, DOGE, ?) altcoins have any economy supporting them. If they don't gain in value, they lose it, and quickly. With Bitcoin, the economy is constantly growing and the lead time with real-world projects is so long (6-24 months) that it is virtually shielded from short-term price fluctuations. Eg. the Malla project is fully funded for 2014, and only if Bitcoin loses nearly all of its value, would its growth (in a sense of increasing contribution to "real" economy with bitcoins) be hampered, and even that only from 2015 on.

Only if existing bitcoin economy participants start closing shop in droves, mitigating the effect of the myriad of new projects, would there be any chance for Bitcoin to even stall in the long term. Anything else is supportive to continuing price appreciation.

(Yes I acknowledge that the closing of exchanges counts in the equation.)

If 2013 is any guide, it takes 5 months from the capitulation bottom to reach the new high. Of that, 3 months nothing happened. So this month nothing will happen, May nothing will happen, June nothing will happen, July something will start to happen, August, latest September we are at $7.

Argh, how is it possible to wait 0.25 more YEARS, after all, it is 90 days, more than 2000 hours!! I want my candy NOW!!1

There is a possibility to make the scoring simpler:

- When it is known which slot wins, the contestants' probabilities for that slot are summed up. Everybody gets points according to what is their "share" of the correct guesses (perhaps scaled to the average of 1).

In the example far above, the players A-J get points in proportion to their guess (5% gets 10 times the points of 0.5%, and nobody can get negative points).

The system here described is actually just using simple average instead of geometric average in scoring.


In my opinion this has however many downsides:

- Makes the system much more gameable, because anticipation of other players betting heavily a certain range makes you hesitant to bet it, regardless of your estimation of its probability.
- Dull and not enough action, because not possible to get negative points.
- Prone to lucky number strategy, because unbalanced guesses not enough penalized.
- Not elegant to handle cases where people skip rounds etc. (should they get an average score for missed rounds??)

This, and the other chart with 3 waves going down, down, down.

The market rhymes, until it doesn't.

Would you rather bet that Bitcoin experiences at least one more wave up (like the 2 pictured above), so that you make 10x with little risk of losing all?

Or that it goes down at least one more time, so that you have to use 5x leverage to double your money with real risk of losing all?

IMO it is more probable and more profitable to bet on the first option only, and leave the second one aside. As you might remember, I played the downswings a lot but stopped in February 25, not willing to be crushed by the train.