Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1713520287]

1713520287

[1713520287]

1713520287

[koryu]

support is increasing, 4k+ bids til 3000 cny. 3k+ bids til 470$.

do we see 500 again soon?

ps: wb adam   didnt see the new poll, 50% see 500+incoming ccmf

[dreamspark]

I can find you some threads that demonstrate that was the approximate exchange rate during that period.

Hey, my goal was just to make some salutary fun of price extrapolations.

Frankly, I have no idea what the price will be next year.  AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

It was only an offer Prof 

[Bronstad]

Hey, my goal was just to make some salutary fun of price extrapolations.

Nah, your goal is to try and squash any positive sentiment in this thread.

Salesmen want optimistic estimates; traders should want realistic ones. (But I am not claiming that mine are realistic.)

That statement means nothing. Other than to imply any positive opinions are merely sales tactics. You're a FUD spreader, don't act like you're doing anyone any favors.

[sleger]

AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ? Are you really a professor ? You should check your maths here...

[JorgeStolfi]

do the "fundamentals" allow a price of <400?
not for more than a few hours
 

The problem with "fundamentals" is that some are unknown (e.g. the true rate of adoption), some unpredictable (e.g. the PBoC decrees) and the rest is hard to translate into price changes.

No wonder TA is so popular.  But of course TA cannot predict unpredictable events either.

My undertanding of the bitcoin fundamentals is that the rally of October-November 2013 was due to the opening of the Mainand China market, and the decline since then is due to the shrinking of that market.  The brief plunge to 340$ on Apr/10, apparently due to rumors in China, tell me that  if the Chinese market were to close today, and absent any other positive development, the price would fall to about 300$ or less.

On the other hand, the market outside China should support at least 120$, as it did in September.

This last estimate assumes that the April 2013 rally was NOT due to an early partial opening of the Chinese market.  Was it?

[JorgeStolfi]

AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ?

Yes.  What will be the price on Nov 17, 2014, at 17:23:11 UTC?  The log-Brownian model say that it will be more than 487.15 USD with 50% probability, less than that with 50% probability.  (OK, there is some probability that it will be EXACTLY 487.15 USD,but it is very small.)

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

... It's a high-risk low-reward investment

[..]

If you understand it, it is low risk high reward.

If you still read the main stream media, you see that understanding is not easy. It takes some work and some brains.

Haha, this seems to be the current method of giving bitcoin more credibility. "If you learn more about bitcoin, then you see how wonderful it is"

Let me tell you this, at first when I heard about bitcoin, then I thought that it had a lot more potential. When I actually studied it in depth, about both it's technological mechanism and it's ability to fit into the picture of global trade, finance and economy, only then I realized how much of an play money gimmick it actually is, without the ability to be considered as an currency, or even just as an practical financial tool.

The bitcoin cultists have this funny idea that they know something that others don't. They really believe that visiting bitcointalk and coindesk, will make them smarter on the subject then everyone else. They really believe that the rest of the educated world is just too stupid to adopt bitcoi. These are the people that learn finance by watching youtube videos. These are the same people who read self-help books and visit motivational classes on finding a quick way to be a millionaire.
Welcome to Idiocracy

[knarzo]

AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ? Are you really a professor ? You should check your maths here...

http://www.professorbitcorn.com/ 

[sleger]

AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ?

Yes.  What will be the price on Nov 17, 2014, at 17:23:11 UTC?  The log-Brownian model say that it will be more than 487.15 USD with 50% probability, less than that with 50% probability.  (OK, there is some probability that it will be EXACTLY 487.15 USD,but it is very small.)

I do not know what the price will be but the log brownian model does NOT say that (I am just repeating myself here) ...

Look at a call closed formula price, N(d2) represents the probability of the call being in the money, if you put S=K (our example here) you are left with N(something negative) which means that the probability that the price ends up above current value is ... less than 50% !
And below current value is ... more than 50%.

Try to think about why, if you still dont understand in a few hours, feel free to ask me.

EDIT: forgot the "but" in first sentence

[eiskalt]

Welcome to Idiocracy

The arrival of idiocracy regularly precedes the ascendency of the bitcoin-buell.

Your comment is therefore considered bullish for bitcoin price. Thank you very much.

[rpietila]

...drivel...

Go away, troll. If it did not have any value, nobody would try to derail the discussion. Go to Blackcoin! They also believe that it has value. Not interested? Well, that just affirms that Bitcoin has value and Blackcoin does not.

($5 billion was given by USA to foment a revolution promote democracy in Ukraine. Bitcoin is much more important than a midsize country. It is part of the game to have paid trolls. Lots of them.)

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Welcome to Idiocracy

The arrival of idiocracy regularly precedes the ascendency of the bitcoin-buell.

Your comment is therefore considered bullish for bitcoin price. Thank you very much.

Yeah
Reminds me when people here cheered that the fall of MtGox, together with it's customers funds, was bullish and marked the point of trend reversal

People can be very creative with "detecting indicators" here.

[adamstgBit]

do the "fundamentals" allow a price of <400?
not for more than a few hours
 

The problem with "fundamentals" is that some are unknown (e.g. the true rate of adoption), some unpredictable (e.g. the PBoC decrees) and the rest is hard to translate into price changes.

No wonder TA is so popular.  But of course TA cannot predict unpredictable events either.

My undertanding of the bitcoin fundamentals is that the rally of October-November 2013 was due to the opening of the Mainand China market, and the decline since then is due to the shrinking of that market.  The brief plunge to 340$ on Apr/10, apparently due to rumors in China, tell me that  if the Chinese market were to close today, and absent any other positive development, the price would fall to about 300$ or less.

On the other hand, the market outside China should support at least 120$, as it did in September.

This last estimate assumes that the April 2013 rally was NOT due to an early partial opening of the Chinese market.  Was it?

china rumors has been crashing the market for over 5 months... not just the last good dip.
MYO china has been a source of hype and later a source of FUD, a tool to get sheeple to buy high and sell low, if china bans bitcoin AGAIN it won't do much to price...
just because china bans bitcoin doesn't make the market in china disappear, it simply moves underground or to hong kong.

April 2013 rally was based on WordPress and banks farting,
b4 that, spike to 32, was because a few youtubers asked "wtf is bitcoin?"

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

...drivel...

Go away, troll. If it did not have any value, nobody would try to derail the discussion. Go to Blackcoin! They also believe that it has value. Not interested? Well, that just affirms that Bitcoin has value and Blackcoin does not.

($5 billion was given by USA to foment a revolution promote democracy in Ukraine. Bitcoin is much more important than a midsize country. It is part of the game to have paid trolls. Lots of them.)

Of course it has value There are some weird things that hold large amount of wealth in the world, like the Church of Scientology and Vatican for instance, are also quite rich. So, I'm not actually denying the chance that bitcoin could actually rake in a good amount of dumb money. That's why I'm asking you to hire me. Let's rake these fools together and we can live like kings!

Yeah, that sucks doesn't it. The educated and experienced people are just so stupid, that they invest 5billion to the uncertain situation in Ukraine, but they just can't see the mad profits in buying bitcoin. If only the rest of the world would be as smart as you and others in this forum, what a wonderful world it would be...

Hey, but maybe they are worrying, that if they buy bitcoin, then some anonymous owner will dump 1mil. of his coins and run away with their invested wealth? Could they actually be this stupid, that they worry about risks like that? Yeah, I think they are stupid enough to actually worry about taking unmanagable risks. They should just stop worrying and buy bitcoins, because of the mad profit$$$ they receive!!!!!!!

Btw, it's funny to see that you're actually using the information about Ukraine, that is from the Russian information sphere. Aren't Russians more evil then Americans because they banned bitcoin? Americans are saying that talks about 5 billion are a part Russian propaganda. I'm really confused here, please help me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[knarzo]

...drivel...

Go away, troll. If it did not have any value, nobody would try to derail the discussion. Go to Blackcoin! They also believe that it has value. Not interested? Well, that just affirms that Bitcoin has value and Blackcoin does not.

($5 billion was given by USA to foment a revolution promote democracy in Ukraine. Bitcoin is much more important than a midsize country. It is part of the game to have paid trolls. Lots of them.)

blub blub

You should stick with bloomberg an co.. Or buy some iDevice.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-23/groupthink-or-black-swan-rising-not-single-economist-expects-economic-downturn

[Patel]

Is Russia/Ukraine/USA situation bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?

[oda.krell]

AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ?

Yes.  What will be the price on Nov 17, 2014, at 17:23:11 UTC?  The log-Brownian model say that it will be more than 487.15 USD with 50% probability, less than that with 50% probability.  (OK, there is some probability that it will be EXACTLY 487.15 USD,but it is very small.)

"The log brownian model", huh? As in, Markov property all the way... And here I was thinking you would have finally come to embrace TA.


This is a bit off-topic, but will you stick around when price pulls up again?

I'm not even being sarcastic or anything, I really just genuinely wonder. I mean, I'm pretty bearish right now, but I have very little doubt it'll turn around eventually.

And I'd actually be interested to see what your posts will look like once we're at that point.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

...drivel...

Go away, troll. If it did not have any value, nobody would try to derail the discussion. Go to Blackcoin! They also believe that it has value. Not interested? Well, that just affirms that Bitcoin has value and Blackcoin does not.

($5 billion was given by USA to foment a revolution promote democracy in Ukraine. Bitcoin is much more important than a midsize country. It is part of the game to have paid trolls. Lots of them.)

blub blub

You should stick with bloomberg an co.. Or buy some iDevice.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-23/groupthink-or-black-swan-rising-not-single-economist-expects-economic-downturn

The funniest part is that you're actually editing my post in your reply, so these words won't reach the fragile ears of those, who need to ignore people here to stay on the course of The Real Truth