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5261  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: FPGA mining for fun and profit on: May 20, 2011, 10:13:44 PM
What are the odds of getting the next block, and being able to prevent transactions that you don't approve of for ~10 minutes?  51%
You don't get it. If you have more than 50% of the mining power you can just continue searching for a valid block even after somebody else has found one before you. This way you can make sure that you control every block. This is listed in the weaknesses on the Wiki. Yes, you can technically still add transactions, but there's not much point if they'll never get confirmed.

No, he gets it, and you are still a little behind on the curve.  Having control of 51% of the hashing power of the whole network makes it possible to successfully attack the blockchain for a short period of time.  That period of time being one 10 minute interval.  The whitepaper doesn't go into detail about the odds of success of such an attack, other than to show how it's not really possible at all at less than 50%.  Having just over 50% of the network hashing power doesn't really give you very good odds of success past one block, and an attacker intending to deny transactions into the blockchain for longer than one block has to be able to be certain that no blocks can sneak in under him, for if one gets in and the next is built on top of that before he build one to overwrite that one and one on top to secure his false one then it become exponentially more difficult for him to overwrite two blocks back.  In practice, an attacker wishing to keep this up for an extended period of time needs at least double the hashing power of the network because it's like the attacker is trying to wade up river while the honest nodes are wading down river.  And even with double the rest of the network, some blocks are going to slip in and be covered up again anyway.  At which point the attacker has to choose between trying to overwrite two blocks and then write another before a third is made by the network or simply ignore the one that got away and overwrite the last one to take the network back.
5262  Economy / Economics / Re: American Exchange - Why are we afraid? on: May 20, 2011, 09:07:41 PM
It's not sensible for anyone to set up an exchange server in the one nation that is most likely to become hostile to Bitcoin, particularly when an American can set up an exchange in any juristiction he likes.
5263  Other / Meta / Re: Decline in the signal to noise ratio in the forum on: May 20, 2011, 08:59:49 PM
There is no way to fix it.  That is the normal progression of a niche forum going mainstream.  That's the way of the Internet.  The average poster's contributions trend toward the Internet's greater average, which is terrible.  I've seen it happen on a number of forums that I've participated in.
5264  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Why is there a maximum target? on: May 20, 2011, 08:55:04 PM
With the 4x rule, wouldn't it take quite a few retargets before the target was properly adjusted?

The 4x rule was not present in the first several months.  It was added as a security defense later.  Even so, this would not have had a large impact upon the max target.
5265  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that. on: May 20, 2011, 08:52:26 PM

the other thing is, the bitcoin market looks like make it for northamericans or Europeans only, i wish than buy-sell bitcoins/products get easier for centralamerican people like me! Smiley.

Seems to me that Brazilians have beaten you to the party, but if you want more products from CA or SA, then start selling them!  Depending on where you are, consider selling handmade hammocks.  The kind without spreaders.  I've bought them myself from an importer on Ebay, and I love them.
5266  Economy / Economics / Re: (Un)Quick post from Japan. No politics please..... on: May 20, 2011, 08:05:50 PM

You don't have to go far back in history to see metals considered more valuable than gold.  Silver basically financed the entire Spanish expeditions to the new world.  Silver was lacking in Europe but, to this day, the western hemisphere is well endowed with this shiny metal.


I don't disagree with your general point, but the above statement is no longer true.  Silver in a mined, refined and elemental state (above ground stock, or basicly bullion, coins and jewlry) is much less abundant in our modern world than gold in the same state.  The reason for this is, although gold has been used primarily as a store of value even in the absence of a gold standard anywhere in the world, silver has largely lost it's monetary and investment value as a precious metal (up until last year, anyway) and it's value for the past 50 years or so has been dependent upon it's many industrial uses.  Many of those industrial uses consume the elemental stocks by using silver in chemical compounds that are difficult to reverse, (i.e. photography development) or by using the metal for it's electrical properties in devices that require it and are thus difficult to retrieve (i.e. satellites, aircraft/spacecraft avionics, military equipment and undersea cables).  So over the past 50 years or so, more silver was consumed in industry than is mined each year; although this may change with the recent rise in silver prices.  While pretty much all of the gold that has ever been mined can still be accounted for, as gold has very little industrial uses that cannot be replaced by cheaper materials.
5267  Other / Obsolete (selling) / Re: Tickets for Karl Denson's Tiny Universe & Atlanta Funk Society @ Masquerade, ATL on: May 20, 2011, 07:54:50 PM
Let me know if you ever go on tour near Louisville, Ky.
5268  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Why is there a maximum target? on: May 20, 2011, 07:51:00 PM
I'd guess satoshi chose a maximum target to allow for a. that he didnt get the first 2016 blocks so easily, as that might be looked at even worse than the whole scam stuff now. and b. if there is a major network issue at least there is still some minimum security.

Yes, that's part of it.  Kept it too difficult for one, or even a few, average desktops from reaching 10 minutes between blocks.  Partly as a show of faith that others were desired.

Also, setting a max target also creates the metric that we call the difficulty.  The difficulty number is an estimate of how many times more difficult the target is to achieve statisticly as compared to the minimum difficulty of 1, which is defined as the max target number.  Just having the target doesn't help human beings wrap our heads around the concept, but the difficulty provides a relative metric that humans can get used to.
5269  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The police on: May 20, 2011, 07:32:32 PM
I work in network security, and some of us have been discussing this recently.

Because Bitcoins are traded anonymously, they will be extremely easy to steal once the malware community begins to take notice unless something is done to secure how we access Bitcoins.


An encrypted wallet.dat file as default is in the todo list for the bitcoin client.  Feel free to jump into the fray and help if you have the skills.
5270  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Android Bitcoin Client Bounty (1740 BTC pledged) on: May 20, 2011, 06:01:53 PM
Can the 800 BTC pledgers please clear up which have been paid out? And how much there is to gain right now?

Mine has not been paid out...

"By local transactions, I assume a minimum capability of a local wallet.dat, the ability to use bu.mp (or similar) to transfer addresses, and the ability to create transactions in the absence of working Internet access.

I pledge 50 under these conditions"

I'm going to add a new condition, the system needs to be working on my Samsung Intercept by July, or I'm cutting my pledge in half.  This pledge has turned into a large chunk of what I have left.
5271  Economy / Economics / Re: (Un)Quick post from Japan. No politics please..... on: May 20, 2011, 01:31:04 PM

Is there something I am stating incorrectly here?


Probably not.  But I contest that what you assume would happen once competing currencies exist would actually happen.  Bitcoin has a strong first to market advantage, so any other competing currency based upon it would have to have some dramatic advantages over Bitcoin.  If a large Western government (i.e. the United States) started such a bitcoin copy with legal tender advantages, that chain would probably become more widely used, and thus more valuable.  That's assuming that no other aspects of Bitcoin are changed, most importantly the cash-like ability to trade anonymously.  I would doubt that if the feds ever do a bitcoin clone that they won't put something in there to identify users, which will inevitablely be used against users either by the government itself or by hacker-thieves.  Just the possibility of such a thing would inhibit adoption.  If nothing else, foreign users would be reluctant to use such a thing.  A corporation might not do the same, but such a corporation would become a central target of governments, and thus a victim of their own successes.
5272  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Every block computed on my GPU is rejected? on: May 20, 2011, 04:05:13 AM
Is your system clock correct?
5273  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: [BOUNTY] sha256 shader for Linux OSS video drivers (465 BTC pledged) on: May 20, 2011, 03:53:54 AM
I'm not a programmer, so I don't know what I'm talking about here, but could such a linux binary permit graphics hardware too old to use the current miners to contribute at a respectable hash/watt rate even if they such at the hash/second rate?

No. They lack the hardware design to run programs like this, plus they would be amazingly slow.

Slow is irrelevant, if they are efficient.  There are millions of them.  But if it's not possible, it's not possible.
5274  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Bounty: development of efficient open-source FPGA or ASIC mining solution on: May 20, 2011, 03:50:23 AM
First off, professional mining cannot compete over the long term with individual miners, who have near zero facilities costs.
This is a ridiculous statement.  The costs for a pro miner, per MH, is far lower than an individual miner, purely due to efficiencies of large-scale mining.  Everyone pays for the GPUs, everyone pays for power.
You can't make that claim.  You don't know this.  Also, you don't know what others pay even for power.
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Some don't even have capital costs, because they are presently using GPU's that they would have bought regardless.
Just because someone bought the card for gaming doesn't mean they get to automatically ignore it as a cost for mining. 
IF they bought it to play games, yes they do.
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Plus these are not people who will buy the ASICs anyways.
They probably wouldn't have, but some will now.
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  Eventually, Purpose made bitcoin mining cards will become available.  For no other reason than once all those heavily vested professional miners (such as ArtForz) reach a point that their profit margins are squeezed too much to continue to expand, they will monetize their hardware designs by selling the cards for individual users.
I can't see this happening.  At the time when inflation drops off to low levels, transactions processing fees will be more than adequate to make up the difference.
Just because you can't imagine it, doesn't make it wrong.  Again, you need to ask for your econ education funds back.
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Anyone with enough capital to fabricate an ASIC will require maximum return on investment.  Maximum return will always be mining, and in later years fee processing.  It will never ever be eclipsed by selling chips as commodities.

There is a point for any of these guys that continued expansion of their own cluster becomes a case of diminishing returns.  So at some point, they will stop expanding.  I didn't say they would sell the cards they already have installed, but the IP of their design.
5275  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Bounty: development of efficient open-source FPGA or ASIC mining solution on: May 20, 2011, 03:45:40 AM
I have been seeing a lot of times comments that make it sound as if a US$300,000 development cost for an ASIC is a crazy-high cost, far out of reach.

Yet I also recall having read this same day that the bounty for an open source GPU miner was BTC50,000.

How much is BTC50000 nowadays?

Isn't it actually *more* than US$300000 ?

So whoever picked up that previous BTC50000 bounty might single-handeldy be in a postion to be able to afford to have an ASIC developed?

How many others have BTC50000+ lying around, maybe from back when they picked it up for a penny a coin or so?

Surely a mere US$300000 to US$500000 or so is far from out of reach for the bitcoin community?

-MarkM-


Supposedly ArtForz has already developed a custom run of asic based pci cards for his mining cluster, he just hasn't released his design.
5276  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: EVERY transaction in blcok chain? Flaw? on: May 20, 2011, 12:58:43 AM
Obviously all we need to KNOW are just who the CURRENT legitimate owners of that original 50 BTC block, but even that may be some day thousands of entries long as the BTC subdivides into ever smaller units.

Is this basically it or am i still not getting it...

Um, no.  I think that you aren't quite getting it.  There is no owner for the block, the block isn't traded.  There really isn't any object that can be called a coin, not even a digital object.  The blockchain is a massive, collective ledger system.  The blockchain tracks addresses by recording the transactions that grant and remove bitcoins from them.  A complete blockchain has all of the transactions that have ever been recorded, but it can be pruned of transactions that have already had their values spent again by their owners, after those new transactions are old enough to know for certain that they will not be reversed.  This is the purpose of the 'merkel' hash tree that defines the structure of a block, so that spent transactions can be deleted from the block without breaking the validity checks that new clients must perform on the blockchain upon bootstrapping.  The blockchain will eventually grow to a massive dataset, but not nearly as fast as if every division of the coins required that the block itself be duplicated and signed again.
5277  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 21 million cap on: May 20, 2011, 12:49:05 AM
The number comes from the combinations of the initial block reward (50 coins), the target blocks per hour (6) and the halving period (4 years).

Ah, that makes more sense now.
And here I thought it was because when you divide the starting number of coins generated by the number of blocks before the coins halve and then multiply by the current recommended transaction fee you get the answer to life, the universe, and everything:

(210,000 / 50) * 0.01 = 42

May you be touched by his noodlely appendage.
5278  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Bounty: development of efficient open-source FPGA or ASIC mining solution on: May 20, 2011, 12:43:41 AM
I would think that any mining "board" should be built with a FPGA. ASICs can't be changed at a later date, so if bitcoins ever switch from SHA-256 to a different crypto all the boards would be useless. With a FPGA, you have a better chance of being able to program the new implementation.

This is an issue, to be sure.  However, ASIC's can be mass produced on a level vastly more cost effective than equvilant FPGA's.  So much so, that if the crypto is changed, it would still be more cost effective to buy a second ASIC mining card than to buy one FPGA card.
5279  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Bounty: development of efficient open-source FPGA or ASIC mining solution on: May 20, 2011, 12:41:30 AM
I hate to be the one to be the destroyer of hopes & dreams, but I need to explain the economics of this to you guys.

Nobody will ever sell you an ASIC miner. 

You need to return to your Econ prof and ask for your money back.  You are overlooking some important variables.  First off, professional mining cannot compete over the long term with individual miners, who have near zero facilities costs.  Some don't even have capital costs, because they are presently using GPU's that they would have bought regardless.  Eventually, Purpose made bitcoin mining cards will become available.  For no other reason than once all those heavily vested professional miners (such as ArtForz) reach a point that their profit margins are squeezed too much to continue to expand, they will monetize their hardware designs by selling the cards for individual users.
5280  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: FPGA mining for fun and profit on: May 19, 2011, 11:35:09 PM
Apologies but no more development information will be posted.  I've been offered a 25% share from someone that owns 2 FPGA clusters.  If you haven't seen that type of hardware before think a 156 FPGAs per machine.

Okay, so the most likely existing FPGA user with this kind of hardware is either a crypto set-up or banking/financial house that used it for algo trading.

Perhaps a financial institution breaking ranks, but it could also be the CIA looking to test their intentions for bitcoin on idle hardware.
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