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5341  Economy / Economics / Re: Moving away from BTC, like the Gold Standard? on: May 18, 2011, 05:55:43 PM
I read somewhere that 90% or more of Economics professors get significant funding from the Fed.  So of course they are in favor of centralized banking.

It's not that high, but the vast majority do get a significant portion of their income from public sources (governments or their agencies, such as the Fed) either directly (professor at a public university) or indirectly (speaking/consultation fees from such agencies).  It's very difficult to get a person to understand something when her salary is dependent upon her not understanding it.
5342  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin concept is groundless TECHNICALLY..this article says..Can anyone defend? on: May 18, 2011, 05:50:20 PM
Honestly, I couldn't care less if Europeans use Bitcoin or not.
Yeah, because we all know that none of us West-Europeans are using bitcoin at all Tongue A lot of us would also like for the world of banking to be disrupted. Especially for doing business internationally it's way too complicated right now to take payments. For me, it has little to do with trusting or not trusting the government... Today's more and more globalized world needs something better than the current patchwork of toll-taking banks.

I said, in general.  There are statist Americans and there are classicly liberal Europeans.  In the present state of things, however, Europeans tend to trust their governments.  That's just the cycle of things.  60 years ago Americans tended to have the trust of government intentions and Europeans didn't.  This is reasonable considering that the US had just recently won a World War that was started by European governments screwing with each other.
5343  Economy / Economics / Re: (Un)Quick post from Japan. No politics please..... on: May 18, 2011, 04:07:34 PM

A: You relate Bitcoin most closely to gold in the discussion of intrinsic value. Yet I don't think this is correct. Gold, finally, can be used for something, whether industrially or decoratively. The reason that someone in (say) Vietnam saves in gold and not Dong (which is a GREAT name for a currency btw) is that no matter what happens,the value of gold can never go to zero. A person in Sth Africa or Cuba knows the same thing. They know that someone, somewhere, will ALWAYS want it. That, if you have enough of it, you can escape your country and buy a house in Brazil or whatever. This is a very important distinction between Bitcoin and gold (and no, I'm not a gold bug)....which brings me to my next point.

I didn't see a question, only a statement.  Most of us old salts don't think that bitcoin is similar to gold except that it is designed to mimic gold if it could be used in a digital realm.
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B: Stability. Going to zero in value (see point C) doesn't even need to happen for Bitcoin to never get off the ground in a significant way. As long as everything flows along nicely, of course there are no problems. But you haven't had a real test of the currency yet. No-one has bought a house with it. No-one has started accepting it as their wage exclusively etc etc. Now, this may happen in the future of course, and I'm sure that it will be all over the media when it does. But for it to get off the ground, people must be able to put their faith in it. Right?

Right?  Well, at least there was a question mark, but there still isn't a specific concern that can be addressed.

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And faith is a weird thing.

Imagine you amassed enough Bitcoin to actually buy something significant. Looking on your site, I see people selling bandwidth for Bitcoin. O.k, say I get enough Bitcoin playing poker to buy a server companies ENTIRE bandwidth. All of it. For 25 years. So I basically own it and then on-sell the bandwidth for Euros. So the owner of that server company is trading his income stream, the one he pays his taxes with and buys groceries with, for Bitcoin. So my problem (a huge pile of Bitcoin) is now his. He is fine, as long as he can trade it for (say) some dudes entire stream of T.Shirt production for the next 15 years. But what happens when someone says 'no'?

People say no all the time.  That's the default response even in the fiat currency world.  If you were really coming from an economic background, you would know that the market doesn't function anything like the above scenario.
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We saw it in the housing bust. House prices always go up. Until they don't. A 'million dollar house' is only such until someone pays a million dollars for it. Otherwise, its a million dollar house on PAPER only. You say "Its worth a million bucks." O.k, fine, sell it for a million bucks then. But you can only sell it as long as the next person believes the same thing. The last person left holding the bag loses a LOT. This is the 'greater fool' problem. The first person to blink will cause a cratering in value across the market of ALL Bitcoin.
Prices go up, prices go down.  That is the way of the world.  Bitcoin isn't different in this respect, except by a matter of scale at present.
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Therefore people will always hedge their bets with Bitcoin. They won't have much faith. They will say "I'll take Bitcoin to X small amount". Or make sure they can move significant amounts before they will accept any, impacting liquidity. Or run a small side business in Bitcoin but not their main job.
Perhaps they will.  That wouldn't detract from it's usefulness as the currency of the Internet.
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The less 'intrinsic value' something has, the less stable it is, but the main point impacting stability is the currencys lowest bound value. Silver may drop in value by 80%. But you can always sell it for SOMETHING to scrap metal dealers. Houses may drop in value by 80%. But you can always live in them.Linden Dollars can always be used as long as Second Life is going etc etc. This very fact makes them more stable than Bitcoin.  A million dollar house's lowest bound of value (or silver, or Linden dollars) is NOT actually zero. But Bitcoins lowest bound IS zero (see C). Which makes Bitcoin NOT a good currency.
Bitcoin is no worse in this respect than any fiat currency that you can name.  And bitcoin has the advantage that no one is passing laws to compel you to use bitcoin.
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C: Bitcoin could easily drop in value to zero, by becoming a victim of it's own success. You say it has intrinsic value.
No, we don't.  Who have you been listening to?
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But thats just it. YOU say it does. But Bitcoin is a concept that has no 'accepter of last resort'. Yes, fiat currency is printed out of the air. But a Government, by decree, will only accept taxes in that currency. Therefore, it DOES have a value. And a big reason that fiat currencies die, is not overprinting per se. Its the fact that Zimbabwe stops accepting ZIM from its own people and demands USD instead. Or the army does.
The army stops accepting wages in ZIM because the government has printed so much that it's market value trends towards zero.  The death of a fiat currency is always a political event.
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Bitcoins algorithm itself is not special (if I understand correctly?Huh). Anyone can start another algorithm of their own and say "O.K, THIS is the new digital money." Right?
Technically, yes.  Go ahead a try it.  Let's see how successful you are at playing catchup to Bitcoin.  It's taken Bitcoin two years to reach this point.
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So Bitcoin has 'value' because enough people are using it that it is established. But as soon as someone with more power as an 'accepter of last resort' shows up, Bitcoin will be shafted. Not instantly maybe. But 100% certainly.The concept will live on of course. Its just that Bitcoin itself won't, making everyones current Bitcoin worthless.
That is a risk, but is dependent upon the 'accepter of last resort' having enough credibility to make the case that their version is actually better than Bitcoin.
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If Hollands weed bars suddenly started using Ganja-coin, or Morroco (being tired of ruinous inflation) start using their own algorithm, Bitcoin will instantly begin dropping in value to zero. Why?

Why, indeed.  Why would these institutions start their own currency to compete with Bitcoin?  That's not a trivial question, motivation is important.
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Say, for example, Apple decides it likes the concept. It racks up its own algorithm and with every Itunes or software download it also sends the customer a slice of the AppleCoins it has mined. It also lets people mine AppleCoins themselves.These can be used to buy whatever Apple is selling, from here on out. Boom. You guys are out of business because everyone who likes the idea of digital currency will use that instead.
Not everyone.  Not me.  Applecoins would be centralized, and when the government comes to get their cut, applecoins will drop in value relative to Bitcoins.
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People will instantly make the mental leap "Well my wealth is in Bitcoins. These non-Bitcoins will also go up and down in value, but at least I will always be able to buy a house in Marrakesh/ 500 grams of weed/ 10,000 copies of Tron/ whatever and SELL THEM." This fact will cause people and businesses to ditch Bitcoin for the 'safer' option.
That depends on whether or not the public actually agrees that Applecoins are the safer option.  I would not.
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The very reason that someone with 1,000,000 Euros can sleep at night, even with Greece causing it to go up and down like an elevator, is the fact that the person knows that no matter what happens, Siemans or Vodafone or whoever, will want those Euros to pay their taxes. Or a cop will take it as his salary.
Wait, you actually still expect the Euro to exist in another decade?
5344  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin concept is groundless TECHNICALLY..this article says..Can anyone defend? on: May 18, 2011, 07:46:44 AM
@creighto, that's not how people will look at it unless bitcoin becomes their operational currency, and that's a pipe dream at present. even the wildest bitcoin optimist doesn't think it will happen soon, if ever.

in the meantime, people get paid in dollars, euros, pounds, and similar currencies, and they want to buy stuff in those currencies. for them, bitcoin is a very expensive and unreliable way to do that. they face large exchange fees, unregulated and probably illegal currency exchanges like mt gox, and value that fluctuates as the result of speculation.


moreover, much analysis in the forum suffers from a us-centric view. american banks are particularly inefficient, corrupt, and old-fashioned. americans come to europe and offer magnetic-stripe cards for payments, and grocery clerks laugh at them because it reminds them of the 90s. if you're not familiar with european banking, as this dutch author is describing it, imagine that you had free american-style 'ach' push and pull payments available to you from all of your bank accounts. the average european can presently make payments online for free, in a trusted environment backed by law, to anyone, for any reasonable amount of money, very easily. (very large amounts are typically paid through swift rather than such ach-style payments, at a slightly greater, but still relatively small, cost to the consumer.) that's what most of them want to do.

Europeans, particularly Western Europeans, have a trust of government and government regulated institutions that Americans do not tend to share.  I think that this faith in such social constructs is going to be tested over the next several years.  And although you may not be directly charged for these transfers, there is a cost.  Someone is paying for it.  If it's not you, then it's likely the online vender; which is the Paypal/Credit Card model.  If not, it's your government paying the costs; which means it's still you indirectly.  But what is the catch?  You may feel that your private business is still private because the government doesn't share it, but it's not private from your government.  There may yet come a day when you regret that.

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similarly, the average person concerned about the inflation of their currency doesn't become an activist and try to stop all inflation. people instead simply diversify away from their currencies in their long-term portfolios, which is very easy and cheap to do. even americans have very good instruments available for this through etfs listed on the nyse.

The inflation issue is a red herring.  Bitcoin inflates, and currently does so at a rather high rate.  The only reason that the relative value of a bitcoin continues to rise is because the size of the economy is rising at a substantially higher rate.

Honestly, I couldn't care less if Europeans use Bitcoin or not.  If Bitcoin needs my advocacy to succeed, then it's already doomed to failure.  There are always going to be those who disagree on anything.
5345  Economy / Economics / Re: Moving away from BTC, like the Gold Standard? on: May 18, 2011, 07:44:59 AM
Did she offer any reasoning to back up her viewpoint?

Hell, for that matter did she bother to even look at the fundamentals that underpin Bitcoin?
5346  Economy / Economics / Re: Moving away from BTC, like the Gold Standard? on: May 18, 2011, 07:44:06 AM
I've only recently begun understanding Bitcoins and decided to ask my Economics professor about the viability of decentralized digital currency.

She responded by saying that it will not be sustained just as the Gold standard was replaced by the Dollar (in the US).
The Dollar is also backed by the Fed. and our confidence in it.

What are some future speculations? When it hits the cap, will BTC be replaced by a inflatable currency?

You might want to consider another path towards an economics education.
5347  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Original "Genesis" Bitcoin (and a few thousand more) on: May 18, 2011, 07:23:38 AM
exactly! this is a crucial point that anyone investing significant money in the current block chain ought to be aware of and weigh carefully. all but a very small number of people have a strong economic and psychological incentive to see competitors to that block chain. different payments communities can start their own, etc. bitcoin as an idea is much more compelling than the idea of any one block chain as a get-rich-quick scheme.

Go for it.  Good luck!
5348  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that. on: May 18, 2011, 07:20:24 AM
If BitCoins really do become as valuable as the title suggests, what is the quickest way for US residents to convert coins into cash in their bank accounts? (It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)

I have no idea.  I have no intention of converting my coins to cash.  I just spend them.
5349  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin concept is groundless TECHNICALLY..this article says..Can anyone defend? on: May 18, 2011, 07:17:28 AM
I read the article.  I can't say I was impressed by his grasp of the concepts.
5350  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin concept is groundless TECHNICALLY..this article says..Can anyone defend? on: May 18, 2011, 07:10:21 AM
bitcoin has to compete on fees and features. it can compete on features, but i am not sure in the end that it can compete on fees without substantial modification.

Really?  What other method of online exchange system are you are off that can transfer an arbitrary amount of value for seven cents?
5351  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: IRC channel - single point of failure? on: May 18, 2011, 03:18:08 AM
Does an existing client installation (one that has already bootstrapped from the IRC channel) ever reconnect to IRC?

Unless you are using a "shy" client, one modified to not use IRC and be otherwise cautious about accepting new connections, then yes; the vanillia client will attempt to announce it's own IP address on the IRC channel so that other peers can easily find it.  I'm pretty sure that a "shy" client has already been developed that functions in a "darknet" fashion, only accepting connections or attempting connections with nodes that have previously been approved by the user manually.  These are not likely to show up on any graph or poll of the nodes, and certainly some exist behind Tor or I2P anyway.  The point of the shy clients is to have one or more nodes that has the full blockchain on the p2p network that is intentionally difficult for a malicious node to locate.  Thereby protecting the blockchain, and the shy client's owner, from direct attacks online or in meatspace.
5352  Other / Politics & Society / Re: "Anarchists" rioting in London on: May 18, 2011, 03:09:11 AM
Quote from: BitterTea
If the workers want their own factory, why do you advocate they take it (by force) from those they voluntarily agreed to work for?

When did they use force?

Read the whole thread.
5353  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that. on: May 18, 2011, 03:07:47 AM
Good points all around, although I'm not entirely convinced that people will give up a 5000-year-old social technology so easily. I'm not attached to it, but I'm still going to keep some on hand just in case. But the good thing about a free market is it doesn't matter which one of us is right, because nobody's going to force anyone else to accept one way or the other.

It's always wise not to put all your eggs in one basket.  I don't own any gold, mostly because I don't have a personal use for it beyond it's trade value.  But I do own silver, because even if society were to completely collapse to the point that even silver had no trade value because no one can eat it or shoot with it, I can still use it for it's anti-bacterial properties by dropping it into my raw milk and keep it from spoiling.

I also have a not-small stock of the things one can eat and shoot with, I call that "insurance".
5354  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Warning: Bitcoin4Cash fraud! Won't ever do business with Madhatter again. on: May 18, 2011, 03:03:02 AM
This thread has made me realize something new.  My employer has begun to block bitcoin trade sites, including bitcoin4cash.com.
5355  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: IRC channel - single point of failure? on: May 18, 2011, 01:03:23 AM
Alright, so I'm excited at the possibilities Bitcoin offers (and I'll be holding on to my meager 4.5 bitcoins) but I've noticed something that few people seem to talk about.  Isn't the IRC channel used for bootstrapping a single point of failure?  Wouldn't the loss of this channel result in an inability for new clients to connect? 

No.  At worst, the loss of the IRC channel would delay the bootstrapping of a new client, but not prevent it.  Any client that has already bootstrapped successfully would not need access to IRC in any case.  I've personally tested this, because when I am at work, IRC is blocked by my employer's firewall.  The IRC channel provides quick access to peer discovery, but there is a built in default list of persistant clients to attempt a connection to if IRC isn't accessible, and once a client is bootstrapped it keeps a record of past connections and can search through those for viable peers upon restart.  Also, if IRC is blocked and the entire built-in list of peers is blocked or hacked, the client can be started with a switch to connect to any other peer that the IP address is known.  Which would permit existing users to post IP addresses for bootstrapping on any Internet forum such as this one, and create a set of moving targets for the attackers to pursue.
5356  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Warning: Bitcoin4Cash fraud! Won't ever do business with Madhatter again. on: May 18, 2011, 12:56:50 AM
It's entirely possible that neither side is fradulent, but that a failure of the government managed postal system is to blame.
5357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price increases are just getting started on: May 18, 2011, 12:38:17 AM
When I refer to price stability, I do not mean that all prices should remain stable.  I mean that, in general, prices should not fluctuate without a change in the underlying supply and demand of the item. 


General price stabability will come with a mature market size.  Once enough of the public has already discovered Bitcoin that new discoveries become increasingly uncommon, or simply a smaller share of the economy due to a very large user base being relatively unaffected by new users coming in, then the value of a bitcoin will achieve a relative stabability to that of any other "small" currency traded on Forex.
5358  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: You are threatening Bitcoin’s security on: May 18, 2011, 12:30:00 AM
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The "exact exploit conditions presented by the creator" are having => 50% of the network power, which no one person has, and also that they are anonymous so that no one knows where to go looking if someone trys said exploit.

No one can know if pool owners can be in cahoots with one another. At current rates, pools the size of deepbit are already making profit potentials upwards of 800-1k$ daily.

And, if deepbit were larger if used for an attack, how much could it net from such an attack before being discovered?  Right now, I think not that much [but still considerable ... but not enough for operators to give up their revenue stream].  I wouldn't expect pool owners to be part of it [although surprises do occur, but I don't think so for the current time frame anyway].

If a major pool is ever hacked, it's much more likely to be hacked quietly with the intent of the attacker redirecting the pool's earnings to himself.
5359  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: You are threatening Bitcoin’s security on: May 18, 2011, 12:28:47 AM
This thread topic is exactly why I never thought that open pools were a good idea.  That said, the ability to create more pools will lead to a proliferation of said pools competing for contributers.  So it's unlikely that any one pool could ever collect the 50% minimum in order to attack the blockchain even for a short while, as the more pools there continue to be, the less of a percentage that each is ever likely to be able to accumulate.

Once again, open source competitiveness comes to the rescue.
5360  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin 100+ - The Internet's Richest Bitcoiners on: May 18, 2011, 12:22:35 AM
I'm not sure I understand the instructions. Are you suggesting that the person announces their balance here, then moves it to 5 other addresses so that they can post links to Bitcoin Block Explorer as evidence?

Apart from the fact that few people would go to that much trouble, there is the downside that by consolidating your coins you link their histories together. Not everyone will want this.

Atlas, why don't you show your own wealth? If no-one else shows theirs, you will be permanently ranked Richest Bitcoiner #1.

[emphasis mine]

not only do you link their history - you damage their value.  my understanding is that solo-mined virgin blocks will always command a premium price over the current market, since they are the most anonymous Bitcoin extant.  the mixer sites need those...  yes?



No.
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